钢铁周报 20251012 钢厂利润承压，海外贸易摩擦升级 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格上涨。截至 10 月 10 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3260 元/吨，较上周升 50 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3410 元/吨， 较上周升 50 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3400 元/吨，较上周升 60 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3810 元/吨，较上周升 10 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3450 元 /吨，较上周持平。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市场价格稳 中有升，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-11 元/吨，-10 元/吨和-15 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化-15 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 10 月 10 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比上升。产 量方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 863 万吨，环比降 3.76 万吨，其中建筑钢材产 量周环比减 5.85 万吨，板材产量周环比升 2.09 万吨，螺纹钢本周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a weak reality in the short - term, but the market's expectation for the recovery of steel demand is rising with the macro - environment turning loose. Steel prices still have a downward risk from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need to be focused on [2]. - For iron ore, short - term iron ore prices may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise, similar to the situation in 2023. The market is expected to be driven by policies, and the black - building materials sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - position allocation in the long - term [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [15]. - For polysilicon, the price may be supported if leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed more positively in the short - term, and attention should be paid to policy trends. Soda ash is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.781%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10110 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 34297 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (1.014%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions increased by 24718 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The real demand during the holiday was weak, but the market's expectation for demand recovery is rising. The steel price has a downward risk, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+10.00). The positions increased by 12200 lots to 45.96 lots. The weighted positions were 75.65 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.15% [4]. Strategy Views - During the holiday, steel mill production was stable, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - Manganese silicon (SM601 contract) closed up 0.17% at 5768 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5670 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. Ferrosilicon (SF511 contract) closed down 0.40% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 228 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore disturbances if the black - building materials sector strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - building materials sector with low operation cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with no change. The weighted positions increased by 8057 lots to 407790 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with bases of 660 yuan/ton and 260 yuan/ton respectively [13]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and demand remains stable, the far - month contract valuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [14][15]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50765 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (-595). The weighted positions increased by 7663 lots to 234012 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with a basis of 1785 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - The current polysilicon price lacks upward drive. If leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, the fundamentals may improve, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The inventory increased by 346.9 million boxes (+5.84%). The long positions of the top 20 increased by 91284 lots, and the short positions increased by 131962 lots [19]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The inventory decreased by 10.41 million tons. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 41693 lots, and the short positions increased by 27467 lots [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it more positively in the short - term and pay attention to policy trends [20]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [22].

黑色建材日报 2025-10-09 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 节前螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 25 元/吨（-0.80%）。当日注册仓单 285846 吨, 环比增加 15608 吨。主力合约持仓量为 187.3832 万手，环比减少 52807 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板 卷主力合约收盘价为 3253 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 36 元/吨（-1.09%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比 减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 134.9 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-30 节前补库暂告段落，节后政策仍有预期 昨⽇⽇盘⿊⾊建材板块整体震荡回调，⼀⽅⾯，临近⻓假，前期交易 补库需求的资⾦趋于离场；另⼀⽅⾯，焦化限产未被证实，则使得市 场"反内卷"情绪降温。夜盘时段期价震荡为主。虽然补库逻辑趋于 结束，但考虑到10⽉份重磅会议召开，有望再度增加市场信⼼，因 此预计板块品种价格下⽅空间有限。 昨日日盘黑色建材板块整体震荡回调，一方面，临近长假，前期交易 补库需求的资金趋于离场；另一方面，焦化限产未被证实，则使得市 场"反内卷"情绪降温。夜盘时段期价震荡为主。虽然补库逻辑趋于 结束，但考虑到10月份重磅会议召开，有望再度增加市场信心，因此 预计板块品种价格下方空间有限。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿需求高位支撑，海外矿山发运平稳，到港节奏 则收到台风扰动，基本面仍有支撑，但考虑到节前补库需求暂告段落 以及建材旺季需求有待进一步验证，因此限制铁矿上方空间，预计短 期价格震荡。废钢供需双增，但钢企补库接近尾声，且成材价格承压 导致电炉利润收缩，预计短期价格跟随成材震荡为主。 2、碳元素方面，钢厂补库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market's high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term indices face uncertainty due to reduced trading volume, but in the long - run, it's advisable to buy on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Precious metals are likely to benefit from the Fed's future easing cycle, and it's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver [9]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous sector, prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, trade situations, and Fed policy expectations, with different short - term trends [12][14][17]. - In the black building materials sector, prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating before the Fourth Plenary Session, but may have long - term potential [42]. - In the energy - chemical sector, different products have different trends based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [54][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products' prices are influenced by supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The Politburo met to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the NDRC is promoting a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool [2]. - **Base Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific base ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face uncertainty, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had specific price changes on Monday, and relevant policies were announced [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.81 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may oscillate in the fourth quarter, and its performance is related to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices in different markets had specific changes, and the US government faces a "shutdown" crisis [8]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver, and use put options for risk hedging during holidays [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper and SHFE copper prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly, with potential risks from trade situations [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom, affected by trade situations and Fed policy [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc and LME zinc prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly running [17]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead and LME lead prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: SHFE lead is expected to show a wide - range oscillating pattern [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: SHFE nickel prices oscillated, and spot and cost data were provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [21]. Tin - **Market News**: SHFE tin prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate, and observation is recommended [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices changed, and contract and spot data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: Carbonate lithium is likely to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina index prices changed, and base and overseas price data were provided [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [28]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply - demand imbalance worsens [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: AD2511 contract prices changed, and inventory and price difference data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy futures are expected to be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract and spot prices changed, and inventory data were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to remain weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [34]. - **Strategy**: Short - term iron ore prices may be affected by supply, demand, and inventory after the holiday [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass and soda ash contract and spot prices changed, and inventory and position data were provided [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be viewed bullishly in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Black building materials may first decline and then rise, and long - term buying opportunities may appear after the Fourth Plenary Session [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon may decline in the short - term [46][48]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were affected by factors such as coal prices and expected reserve sales [50]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term bullish view is held, but short - term observation is recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and refined oil contract prices changed, and inventory data were provided [55]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long - positions should be stopped, and observation is recommended [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol fundamentals have improved marginally, and short - term long - positions can be considered on dips [58]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and long - positions can be considered on dips [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling during the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices changed, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor supply - demand situation, and short - term short - positions can be considered on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and short - positions can be considered on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of PTA is recommended [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of p - Xylene is recommended [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may oscillate upward [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74]. - **Strategy**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and short - term no prominent contradictions [76]. Agricultural Products Live Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices continued to decline, and supply and demand were expected to be stable [78]. - **Strategy**: Short - term hog prices may remain weak, and short - positions on near - month contracts are recommended [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable or declined, and supply and demand were in a wait - and - see state [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of eggs is recommended, and long - positions on far - month contracts can be considered after price declines [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is in a weakly oscillating state, and short - term declines may occur [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export and production data in Malaysia were provided, and domestic oils and fats oscillated [84]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats may oscillate strongly in the medium - term, and buying on dips can be considered [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices and production forecasts were provided [86]. - **Strategy**: Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices declined, and spot prices and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [90].

黑色建材日报 2025-09-30 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3097 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 270238 吨, 环比减少 2412 吨。主力合约持仓量为 192.6639 万手，环比减少 49906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 24 元/吨（-0.72%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 138.447 万 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The main theme for steel trading in the next two years is expected to be "anti-involution" [1]. - The report highlights the fluctuations in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a complex market environment [3][6]. Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,408, with a weekly change of -1.1% and a year-to-date change of 14.5% [3]. - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) is priced at 3,230 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 5.3% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,340 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 2.3% [3]. Inventory Summary - The total inventory of five major steel products is 1,088 million tons, with a weekly change of -1.1% and a year-to-date change of 43.5% [6]. - The port inventory of iron ore is at 13,997 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.4% and a year-to-date increase of 1.1% [6]. Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,100 million tons [9]. - The average daily pig iron output is expected to reach approximately 250 million tons [9]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand measured in ten thousand tons [15].

黑色建材日报 2025-09-29 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3114 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 53 元/吨（-1.67%）。当日注册仓单 272650 吨, 环比增加 1228 吨。主力合约持仓量为 197.6545 万手，环比增加 106096 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨。 热轧 板卷主力合约收盘价为 3313 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 45 元/吨（-1.34%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环 比减少 890 吨。主力合约持仓量为 139.1208 万手， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry by implementing precise capacity and production controls, promoting resource allocation to leading enterprises, and achieving dynamic balance in supply and demand [3][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will remain on capacity regulation, which is expected to restore profitability for steel companies, particularly benefiting leading firms from the new regulatory measures [3][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][9]. - The report details price changes for various steel products, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, indicating a general downward trend in prices [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 94,700 tons week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 121,200 tons to 10.88 million tons [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.2044 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 104,100 tons [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes a decline in profitability for plate products, with the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changing by +3 CNY/ton, -36 CNY/ton, and -20 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Electric arc furnace steel showed a gross margin increase of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel for potential investment opportunities [3].

黑色建材日报 2025-09-26 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3167 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.094%）。当日注册仓单 271422 吨, 环比增加 7616 吨。主力合约持仓量为 187.0449 万手，环比减少 11775 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3358 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.029%）。 当日注册仓单 29204 吨, 环比减少 5355 吨。主力合约持仓量为 136.9716 万手，环比增加 1955 ...