黑色建材日报 2025-08-27 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3113 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 25 元/吨（-0.79%）。当日注册仓单 161306 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.8206 万手，环比减少 39624 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3367 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 22 元/吨（-0.64%）。 当日注册仓单 25955 吨, 环比减少 894 吨。主力合约持仓量为 89.9991 万手，环比减少 38254 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3400 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3400 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨。 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z00 ...

文字早评 2025/08/26 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，听取"十五五"时期扩内需稳就业意见建议。郑栅洁表示， 希望企业增强信心、抓住机遇，充分利用国内国际两个市场两种资源，有序开展市场竞争，为扩内需、 稳就业多作贡献； 2、相关部门近期将会发放卫星互联网牌照。专家表示，牌照的发放，意味着我国卫星互联网商业运营 迈出第一步; 3、沪指 3900 点在望，两市 ETF 交投火爆，收盘成交额达到 5558.48 亿元。全市场 ETF 规模前一个交易 日已经达到 4.97 万亿，即将突破 5 万亿元； 4、百济神州：RoyaltyPharma 同意在交割时支付 8.85 亿美元 购买单克隆抗体 Imdelltra 在中国以外 地区的特许权使用费。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/0.05%/-0.26%/-0.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.61%/-1.08%/-2.40%/-4.07%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.88%/-1.51%/-2.88%/-4.94%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.07%/0.1 ...

陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-08-26 钢材 黑色建材组 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3138 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 19 元/吨（0.609%）。当日注册仓单 161306 吨, 环比增加 3573 吨。主力合约持仓量为 134.783 万手，环比减少 63773 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3310 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3389 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 28 元/吨（0.833%）。 当日注册仓单 26849 吨, 环比减 少 5366 吨。主力合约持仓量为 93.8245 万手 ...

8月25日，钢材现货市场以涨为主，期货市场主要品种主力全部上涨，其中螺纹、热卷涨0.9%左右，铁 矿涨2.27%，焦炭涨4.36%，焦煤涨6.48%。因煤矿端安全生产事故再发带动市场做多情绪，今日焦煤大 涨，此外，鲍威尔暗示美联储或在9月降息，市场情绪转强，不过淡季钢市供需仍有压力，明日钢价... 一、多空因素分析 1．国常会：听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策情况汇报 会议指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得明 显成效。要在对政策实施情况进行认真总结评估的基础上，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对 扩大内需的推动作用。要严厉打击骗补套补行为，确保补贴资金用到实处、见到实效。要进一步强化财 税金融等政策支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综合施策释放内需潜力。会议有利于提振 市场信心，利好钢材价格走势。 https://www.cls.cn/detail/2123420 2．8月中旬21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存843万吨，环比增加40万吨 据中钢协，8月中旬，21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存843万吨，环比增加40万吨，上升5.0%。8月中 旬 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-25 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3119 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 2 元/吨（-0.06%）。当日注册仓单 157733 吨, 环比增加 21323 吨。主力合约持仓量为 141.1603 万手，环比减少 46508 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3361 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 14 元/吨（-0.41%）。 当日注册仓单 32215 吨, 环比减少 1777 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.8147 万手 ...

➢ 价格：本周钢材价格下跌。截至 8 月 22 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3270 元/吨，较上周降 30 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨， 较上周降 50 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3830 元/吨，较上周降 50 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3470 元 /吨，较上周降 50 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格稳中有跌，废钢价格下跌。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-58 元/吨，-50 元/吨和-42 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化-34 元/吨。 钢铁周报 20250824 美国钢铝关税扩围，钢价有所承压 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 8 月 22 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比上升。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 878 万吨，环比升 6.43 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 3.71 万吨，板材产量周环比升 10.14 万吨， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline in a volatile manner. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection production restrictions [4]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron are affected by supply, demand, and policy sentiment. The short - term prices of iron ore may continue to adjust, and for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [7][10][11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. The prices of glass are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. The prices of soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [16][17][19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar price in Tianjin was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shanghai was 3420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to recover, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. The overall steel production is still at a high level, while the demand - side support is insufficient [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (+ 3.50), and the position increased by 11185 lots to 451,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.44% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output was 240,750 tons, basically unchanged from last week. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The short - term upward increase of pig iron may be limited [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Futures Market**: On August 21, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM601) closed slightly up 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon - iron (SF511) closed up 0.28% at 5638 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of 72 silicon - iron in Tianjin was 5830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity pattern of manganese - silicon has not changed. The production of manganese - silicon has shown an upward trend recently, and the supply - side pressure remains. The demand for silicon - iron and the entire black sector may weaken marginally in the future [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 2.92% (+ 245), and the position increased by 2630 lots to 529,075 lots [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 415 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 165 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not fundamentally changed. The production is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 345), and the position decreased by 1672 lots to 335,483 lots [16]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 46 yuan/kg, up 1.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 49 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 2530 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production increased week - on - week, and the inventory reduction was limited. The prices are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, up 0.28% from the previous week [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass production remains at a high level, the inventory pressure has increased slightly, and the downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, up 0.71% from last Thursday [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream demand has little fluctuation, and the production of soda ash devices fluctuates slightly. The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [20].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-21 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 8 月 20 日，铁合金延续下行。锰硅主力（切换成 SM601 合约）日内收跌 1.32%，收盘报 5836 元/吨。现货 端，天津 6517 锰硅现货市场报价 5800 元/吨，环比上日持稳，折盘面 5990 吨，升水盘面 154 元/吨。硅铁 主力（SF511 合约）日内收跌 0.99%，收盘报 5622 元/吨。现货端，天津 72#硅铁现货市场报价 5830 元/吨， 环比上日持稳，升水盘面 208 元/吨。 盘面角度，锰硅盘面价格跌破 6 月初以来的短期反弹趋势线，且跌破 5850 元/吨附近获得支撑，向下或寻 找 5600-5650 元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and fluctuating trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain their current levels, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply pressure is not significant, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited, and the futures price may adjust slightly [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand for both may weaken marginally [7][8][9]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely [13][14]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices may follow macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to have a gradually rising price center, but their upward space may be limited [16][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Price and Inventory Data - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 15,137 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 1,199 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 880 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,753 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [2]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, and although the profit of steel mills is good and production remains high, the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the positions increased by 674 lots to 449,600 lots. The weighted positions were 863,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output increased. In the inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - On August 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 3.05% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 3.44% at 5678 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton [7]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have dropped significantly. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has increased recently. The demand for both may weaken marginally in the future [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8625 yuan/ton, up 0.23% (+ 20). The weighted contract positions decreased by 15,419 lots to 537,492 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,260 yuan/ton, down 0.04% (- 20). The weighted contract positions increased by 1889 lots to 323,092 lots [11][13]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The demand in August can provide some support, but it is expected to fluctuate weakly. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [12][13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Price and Inventory Data - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1160 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, also unchanged. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, up 2.55% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1230 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, up 0.18% from last Thursday [16][17]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For glass, although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the long - term, it follows macro - sentiment. For soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. Attention should be paid to the repair progress of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [4]. - The short - term price of iron ore may be slightly adjusted due to the weakening of terminal demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent shipping progress and the contradiction between high - level hot metal production and terminal demand [7]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate opportunistically. The final price will move closer to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream terminal demand [8][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in major production areas and the impact of policies [13][14][15]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [17][18]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3155 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3419 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The positions of both decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation accelerated, while hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are rising marginally, with high production but insufficient demand [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 1577 hands to 44.89 million hands [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average hot - metal output increased, and port and steel mill inventories both increased. Terminal demand weakened, and short - term prices may be adjusted [7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 18, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed flat at 6026 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) fell 0.88% to 5880 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: Investment positions are recommended to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate according to their own situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment still disturbs the market, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, down 2.27% (- 200). The weighted contract position increased by 20923 hands to 552911 hands [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52280 yuan/ton, down 0.87% (- 460). The weighted contract position decreased by 1658 hands to 321203 hands [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, inventory clearance was limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe was 1160 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day. The national floating - glass inventory increased, and the inventory days increased. The market sentiment has been digested, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may rise [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment, but the rise is limited by demand [18].