黑色建材日报 2025-11-27 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3099 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.22%）。当日注册仓单 37919 吨, 环比减少 7773 吨。主力合约持仓量为 120.07 万手，环比减少 100338 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3304 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 93 ...

2025年11月26日热轧板卷现货价格表 11月26日唐山热卷市场价格午后持稳11月26日唐山热卷市场价格午后持稳，市场主流4.75-11.75*1500*C 普卷3220-3240，锰卷3350-3370。(元/吨) 11月25日，上期所热轧卷板期货仓单113732吨，环比上个交易日减少2656吨。 截止11月26日当周，据找钢网数据显示，全国热卷产量411.09万吨，较上周减少1.49万吨；厂库103.53 万吨，较上周增加2.27万吨；社库350.76万吨，较上周减少2.15万吨；总库存454.29万吨，较上周增加 0.12万吨；表需410.97万吨，较上周减少7.67万吨。 分析观点： 宝城期货研报：目前来看，热卷供需格局有所好转，库存再度去化，但供应压力未解，且需求韧性存 疑，基本面改善力度受限，利好效应有限，相对利好则是估值偏低，预计走势延续震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 品种:普热轧板卷;材质:Q235B ...

万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3106 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 17 元/吨（0.550%）。当日注册仓单 45692 吨, 环比增加 2134 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.1038 万手，环比减少 131667 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3309 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.424%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.9741 万手，环比减少 82348 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-11-26 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-25 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3089 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 32 元/吨（1.046%）。当日注册仓单 43558 吨, 环比增加 338 吨。主力合约持仓量为 143.2705 万手，环比减少 80706 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3295 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 25 元/吨（0.764%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 2656 吨。主力合约持仓量为 108.2089 万手，环比减少 42534 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3310 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体呈现调整走势，成材价格小幅上升。从基本面看，螺纹钢供需双增，库存持续去化，整 体表现偏中性；热轧卷板终端需求持续回升，产量虽小幅回落，但是库存水平依旧偏高。宏观方面，受前 日美联储鹰派言论影响，市场情绪有所回落，消费盘 ...

供需双增，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：供需双增，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为207.96万吨（+7.96），热轧当周产量为316.01万吨（+2.35）。 （2） 需求： 近期高频数据显示，螺纹表观需求回升，热卷表观需求回升。上周螺纹表观需求为230.79万吨（+14.42），热轧表观 需求324.42万吨(+10.83）。 基本面方面，钢厂盈利率持续下降，同比处于低位。高炉产能利用率下降，铁水产量小幅下降，部分钢厂复产，螺纹产量回升， 供应压力增加。需求方面，表需回升，但受季节性影响，需求改善持续性存疑，终端需求仍疲弱。据百年建筑调研，截至11月18 日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.8%，周环比上升0.04个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为61.11%，周环比上升0.05个 百分点；房建项目资金到位率为53.29%，周环比上升0.05个百分点。库存加速去化，同比仍处高位。热卷供需改善但有限，产量 增加仍有压 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-24 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3057 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.229%）。当日注册仓单 43220 吨, 环比增加 2439 吨。主力合约持仓量为 151.3411 万手，环比减少 59912 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3270 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.091%）。 当日注册仓单 116388 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 112.4623 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/11/22 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is under short - term pressure, and the market is waiting for policy signals. In the short term, due to the weakening of interest - rate cut expectations, the commodity market sentiment is generally cold, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. However, as the Fed's easing expectations are gradually realized and positive signals are released from the China - US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. If the manufacturing repair trend continues, the steel consumption side may gradually stabilize and recover. In the medium term, as subsequent growth - stabilizing policies are gradually implemented and the macro - environment improves marginally, steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point and achieve a moderate recovery [1][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 57 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross profit. The futures price is about 10 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, and the valuation is neutral [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, about a 2.4% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, with a slight decline. The current hot - rolled coil production is relatively high, and the subsequent production reduction rhythm needs to be monitored [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 108,000 tons, about a 2.2% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. Affected by the weak demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, the current demand for sheet metal is weak. Although the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly this week, the demand level is difficult to absorb the production [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 402,110 tons, at a relatively high level, and the current inventory pressure is large [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, and price differences between different contracts. It also shows the price relationships between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, iron ore, and rebar [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report presents charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. It also shows the inventory data of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory [57][62][68] 4. Cost Side - The report includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel. It also shows data on daily average pig iron output, iron - making costs, and the prices of related products [78][79][84] 5. Supply Side - It shows the weekly production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, color - coated plates, and galvanized plates in different regions [93][94][102] 6. Demand Side - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream products such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers [111][112][115] 7. Other - It includes production data of engines, civilian steel ships, and EMUs [130][131]

11月21日，钢材现货市场小幅下跌，期货市场主要品种主力以跌为主，其中螺纹涨0.07%、热卷收平， 铁矿石跌0.32%，焦煤跌1.82%，焦炭跌1.31%。双焦跌势延续，再创阶段新低，五大钢材品种库存继续 回落，表观需求环比增加，但原料端持续下行，且市场整体情绪偏弱，期钢价格维持窄幅震荡运行。 一、多空因素分析 1.印度对涉华低灰冶金焦炭作出反倾销初裁 2025年11月14日，印度商工部发布公告，对原产于或进口自中国、澳大利亚、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚、 日本和俄罗斯的低灰冶金焦炭（Low Ash Metallurgical Coke）作出反倾销肯定性初裁，并建议对这些国 家的该涉案产品征收临时反倾销税，利空钢材价格走势。 2.山东德州、淮北市启动重污染天气橙色预警 山东德州11月22日零时启动重污染天气Ⅲ级应急响应，性污染减排措施，强制性减排措施等。同时，淮 北市决定自11月21日0时启动Ⅱ级橙色预警，解除时间另行通知，实施工业源减排 20% 以上、停工限 产、禁行部分柴油货车等强制性措施。目前看，行业减排及施工管控会收缩钢铁产业链供给，短期强化 供需偏紧预期，利好钢材价格走势。 3.美联储12月降息的概率为3 ...

Core Views - The steel industry is expected to face oversupply issues in 2026, with prices likely to remain volatile [4][49] - The trend of "anti-involution" continues, with supply-side reforms expected to constrain crude steel production by 5%-10% [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains robust, with iron water production at a high level; as of November 2025, the average daily iron water output was 2.38 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [3][8] - Steel production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a cumulative crude steel output of 820 million tons, down 4% year-on-year [3][15] - Demand for steel is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by plate steel, while long steel products face challenges; total apparent steel consumption reached 930 million tons, up 5% year-on-year [3][22] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to decline in 2025, with an expected range of 3000-3500 RMB/ton; the price is projected to stabilize in 2026 [3][4] - The decline in coking coal prices is expected to contribute to lower steel prices, with iron ore prices also having room to decrease [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025 due to declining costs, with average gross margins at their best levels from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The anticipated recovery in rebar prices to around 3500 RMB/ton could lead to an increase in profitability by 50-100 RMB/ton [3][4] Investment Strategy - Focus on product structure transformation and high-growth segments; recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4] - Investment lines for 2026 include stable profits from leading steel companies and opportunities in downstream sectors with strong profitability [3][4]