1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventory is gradually being depleted, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The supply side has been affected by Australian weather, and the demand side shows a trend of iron - water production resumption, with the port inventory situation improving marginally [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - related issues. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a better fundamental performance [9][10] - For coking coal and coke, the short - term supply - demand structure is relatively loose. The price is not expected to rebound significantly in the short term, but coal prices may be supported in the medium - to - long term, especially from June to October [15][16] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with limited price - driving factors [19] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to seek the bottom in oscillation. The factory inventory is high, and the downstream feedback is weak [21] - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The supply contraction expectation and cost support provide a certain bottom, but the terminal demand recovery is uncertain [25] - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply is tightened temporarily, while the demand remains weak [27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.480%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 976,400 lots, a decrease of 99,718 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.272%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, an increase of 6,457 tons. The position of the main contract was 846,800 lots, a decrease of 72,722 lots. The Le Cong aggregated price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory is being depleted smoothly, but there is no trend - upward driving force [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The position changed by - 15,823 lots to 371,400 lots. The weighted position was 900,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 21.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.62% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas ore shipment has significantly declined recently. Australian shipments have recovered after being affected by cyclones, and Brazilian shipments have reached a high level. The demand side shows an upward trend in iron - water production, and the port inventory has continued to decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.12% at 6588 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6400 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the disk price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 2 yuan/ton to the disk [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.90% at 6066 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6150 yuan/ton, a premium of 84 yuan/ton to the disk [8] Strategy Views - The geopolitical situation affects the market. The black sector may be supported, and coal prices may be beneficial to the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Future market trends are affected by sector - wide trends and cost - related factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 30, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.41% at 1214.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal had different premiums to the disk [12] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.09% at 1753.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coke had different premiums or discounts to the disk [12] Strategy Views - The short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Although there are some positive factors such as downstream replenishment, there is no strong support for a significant price rebound in the short term. The price of coking coal is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long term, especially from June to October [14][15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8480 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (- 145). The weighted contract position increased by 7235 lots to 375,855 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with different basis values [18] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 36,550 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.44% (+870). The weighted contract position increased by 975 lots to 53,506 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon had different changes, with a basis of 2700 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Views - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with limited price - driving factors [19] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to seek the bottom in oscillation. The factory inventory is high, and the downstream feedback is weak [21] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1040 yuan/ton, down 0.10% (- 1). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (- 1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,288 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 34,658 lots [24] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, down 1.79% (- 22). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (- 1.09%), with different changes in heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased 22,035 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 16,324 lots [26] Strategy Views - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The supply contraction expectation and cost support provide a certain bottom, but the terminal demand recovery is uncertain [25] - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply is tightened temporarily, while the demand remains weak [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price is supported by costs and will fluctuate in the short - term. The steel mill profitability rate has increased but remains at a low level. The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have risen, and hot metal production has increased. The production of rebar has decreased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has increased. The demand for steel continues to recover, but the recovery is slow. The inventory of steel products has continued to decline, and the pressure has been relieved, but it is still at a high level. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in raw material prices, which supports the steel price, while high inventory and slow demand recovery suppress price increases [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Product Situation - **Supply**: The steel production is at a low level year - on - year. The weekly production of rebar from major steel mills nationwide is 197.87 million tons (-5.46), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils is 305.61 million tons (+5.4) [4]. - **Demand**: The demand for steel continues to recover. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 225.37 million tons (+17.28), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 313.63 million tons (+3.12) [4]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking amplitude of rebar has increased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of rebar is 861.91 million tons (-27.5), the social inventory is 642.75 million tons (-10.46), and the steel mill inventory is 219.16 million tons (-17.04). The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 453.27 million tons (-8.02), the social inventory is 369.42 million tons (-6.91), and the steel mill inventory is 83.85 million tons (-1.11) [4]. - **Basis**: As of March 27, the basis of the rebar main contract is 96 yuan/ton (0), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 9 yuan/ton (+8) [4]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate is 43.29%, a 0.87% increase from the previous period. The hot metal production is 231.09 million tons, a 2.94 - million - ton increase from the previous period. The blast furnace start - up rate is 81.03%, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 86.63%, a 2.61% increase from the previous period. The electric furnace start - up rate is 68.82%, a 9.55% increase from the previous period, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 58.87%, a 6.13% increase from the previous period [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices As of March 27, the average price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide is 3324 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the average price of hot - rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide is 3322 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [8]. 3.3 Raw Materials The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1500 yuan/ton (+30), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1530 yuan/ton (+62), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 786 yuan/ton (-12) [15]. 3.4 Other Market Indicators - **Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces continue to rise, and hot metal production increases [18]. - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The steel mill profitability rate has increased [25]. - **Tangshan Blast Furnace Start - up Rate**: As of March 27, the Tangshan blast furnace start - up rate is 95.15%, a 1.71% increase from the previous period [31]. - **Production Volume**: The rebar production has decreased, with a 5.46 - million - ton decrease in the weekly production. The long - process production has decreased by 4.01 million tons, and the short - process production has decreased by 1.45 million tons. The hot - rolled coil production has increased by 5.4 million tons [33][36][37]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand has increased but is still at a low level year - on - year [40]. - **Trading Volume**: The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.4 million tons, running at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils is 4.717 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production is 89.2 million tons, a 0.35 - million - ton increase from the previous period, at a high level year - on - year [45][49]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the Tangshan billet inventory is 72.75 million tons, a 2.25 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, at a high level. The inventory of major steel products is 1387.29 million tons, a 23.33 - million - ton decrease from the previous period [52]. - **Exports**: From January to February, steel exports were 15.59 billion tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease; hot - rolled coil exports were 2.2488 billion tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease [63]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February, automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a 777,900 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a 541,500 - ton decrease from the previous period. New - energy vehicle production was 694,000 vehicles, a 347,000 - vehicle decrease from the previous period; new - energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, an 180,000 - ton decrease from the previous period [67]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started housing area was 23.1%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed housing area was 27.9%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales area was 13.5%, the year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing sales volume was 20.2%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 16.5% [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas mainstream iron ore mine shipments have significantly declined due to factors such as weather, but the arrival volume has temporarily increased. Iron ore demand shows that hot metal production continues to rise, while the port clearance volume has decreased. Although the supply contraction supports the iron ore price, the high port inventory limits its upward space. [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, with the overall coking coal mine operating rate rising and high Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side shows an increase in both supply and demand, and the downstream coking enterprise profits have shrunk. There is still rigid demand support for coking coal and coke, and the first - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented soon, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate within a limited range. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the crude oil price has fallen after a sharp rise, weakening the support for coking coal and coke. The futures market faces pressure, but the spot market has a strong willingness to hold prices. The price of prime coking coal has been raised, and iron ore has been oscillating at a high level. [8] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The iron ore price index is 109.8 (down 1.36% month - on - month, up 5.13% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil are 1875.1 tons (down 26.7% month - on - month, down 27.3% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2426.3 tons (up 6.81% month - on - month, up 8.14% year - on - year). [15] Demand - The daily hot metal production is 231.09 tons (up 2.94 tons month - on - month, down 6.19 tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume at 45 ports is 313.17 tons (down 2.43% month - on - month, down 0.01% year - on - year). The inventory - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises is 31.55 days (down 1.81% month - on - month, up 1.64% year - on - year). [20] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports is 17000.31 tons (down 0.57% month - on - month, up 17.50% year - on - year). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8978.56 tons (down 0.61% month - on - month, down 1.45% year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises is 24.04 days (up 0.67% month - on - month, down 1.15% year - on - year). [25] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines is 89.16% (up 0.64% month - on - month, up 2.29% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants is 34.78% (up 5.36% month - on - month, down 0.17% year - on - year). The average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 17.94 tons (up 5.88% month - on - month, up 90.40% year - on - year). [30] Coking Enterprises - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is +21 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 74 yuan/ton year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 74.86% (up 0.74% month - on - month, up 4.12% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.4% (down 0.07% month - on - month, down 1.44% year - on - year). [37] Coking Coal Inventory - The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 885.12 tons (up 4.47% month - on - month, up 21.26% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 782.23 tons (up 1.05% month - on - month, up 2.59% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory at ports is 269.44 tons (up 1.69% month - on - month, down 25.70% year - on - year). [43] Coke Inventory - The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 49.78 tons (down 5.09% month - on - month, down 28.57% year - on - year). The coke inventory of steel mills is 691.67 tons (up 0.51% month - on - month, up 3.52% year - on - year). The coke inventory at ports is 216.11 tons (up 8.53% month - on - month, up 0.46% year - on - year). [49] Spot Price - The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month, up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year). The price of low - sulfur prime coking coal in Shanxi is 1580 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, up 310 yuan/ton year - on - year). [52] 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is oscillating at a high level, and the spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 is narrowing. [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are still in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driving force has been formed. For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues. For coking coal and coke, the short - term price rebound lacks sufficient fundamental support, and the long - term outlook for coking coal is optimistic. For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate, and for polysilicon, the price is expected to continue to search for the bottom. For glass and soda ash, both are expected to show a narrow - range shock pattern [2][5][10][14][17][20][23][25] Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,124 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, a net increase of 1,525 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.0762 million lots, a net decrease of 91,050 lots. The spot market prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 539,561 tons, a net increase of 5,882 tons. The position of the main contract was 919,500 lots, a net decrease of 42,727 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The new construction starts still showed a large decline in the context of the low base in the same period last year, indicating that the recovery momentum of the real - estate investment side is still insufficient. The short - term support from real estate for steel demand is limited, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils has recovered rapidly, production has increased slightly, and inventory has entered the destocking stage. Rebar shows both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in inventory, presenting a neutral overall performance [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.61% (-5.00), and the position changed by -20,782 lots to 387,200 lots. The weighted position was 900,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 22.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.74% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas ore shipments continued to rise. Australian shipments increased to a relatively high level, while Brazilian shipments declined slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output increased by 29,400 tons to 231,090 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and the hot - metal output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to improve slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 27, the main manganese silicon contract (SM605) closed up 2.27% at 6,580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6,350 yuan/ton, with a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.50% at 6,012 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 38 yuan/ton to the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated at a high level, reaching a new high of over 6,700 yuan/ton during the week, and then declined, with a weekly increase of 184 yuan/ton or +2.87%. The ferrosilicon price rose at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated downward, with a weekly increase of 96 yuan/ton or +1.61% [7][8] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - held non - ferrous metals and short - held black metals. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the price of alloys. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market for both is affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector and cost - related issues [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 27, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1,219.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had different premiums to the futures. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.51% at 1,752.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang also had different premiums or discounts to the futures. Last week, the coking coal price rose sharply at the beginning of the week and then fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 64 yuan/ton or +5.29%. The coke price followed the coking coal price up at the beginning of the week and then declined, with a weekly increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or +1.39% [12][13] Strategy Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation continues to affect the market. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may support the coal price. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There is not enough fundamental support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. It is recommended to take short - term long - side operations or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about the coking coal price in the medium - to - long term [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of -1.26% (-110). The weighted contract position changed by -1,903 lots to 368,620 lots. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged. For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of +0.39% (+140). The weighted contract position changed by +1,047 lots to 52,531 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [16][18] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with insufficient improvement in demand to drive prices. Polysilicon continues to be in a negative - feedback adjustment state, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to continue to search for the bottom [17][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1,036 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.99% (-21). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 32,418 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 45,523 lots. For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.53% (-19). The spot price in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (-1.09%), with an increase in heavy - soda ash inventory and a decrease in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 12,455 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 26,503 lots [22][24] Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market performed poorly last week. The spot trading was light, and the terminal demand recovery was less than expected. The market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, with the main contract reference range of 1,015 - 1,050 yuan/ton. The soda ash market is in a game between short - term supply tightening and weak demand, with prices showing a narrow - range adjustment. The main contract reference range is 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [23][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cyclical recovery in the steel industry following the US-Iran conflict [1] - The report highlights the performance of various steel indices, indicating a mixed trend in price changes year-to-date [3] - The total inventory of five major steel products has increased significantly, indicating a potential oversupply situation [5] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,914 with a weekly decline of 1% and a year-to-date decline of 4% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,678 with a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 6% [3] - Rebar prices (HRB400 20mm) are at 3,200 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decline of 0.3% and a year-to-date increase of 6% [3] Inventory - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,386 million tons, with a weekly decline of 1% and a year-to-date increase of 590% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 510 million tons, with a weekly increase of 22% and a year-to-date increase of 324% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 16,997 million tons, with a weekly decline of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 72% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 225 million tons [9] - The report indicates a potential mismatch between supply and demand, which could affect pricing and profitability in the industry [10]

Investment Rating - The steel sector is rated as having absolute value, with the CITIC Steel Index increasing by 0.2%, outperforming the market by 1.3% [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its economic cycle, with a profit ratio of 43.3% among 247 surveyed steel mills, despite a current average loss of 30.6 yuan per ton due to high inventory levels and moderate demand [1][11]. - The iron ore inventory at ports remains high at approximately 180 million tons, with ongoing negotiations affecting market dynamics, while steel production is gradually recovering [1][11]. - The market for coking coal is showing positive short-term performance, with prices driven by seasonal demand rather than cost increases [3][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel industry is currently facing mixed signals, with high iron ore inventories and slow recovery in steel production. The market is stabilizing after a macroeconomic downturn, with the CITIC Steel Index reflecting this trend [1][11]. Black Industry Chain Profitability - The profitability indicators show a stable bottom for the steel industry, with a significant portion of mills reporting profits despite challenging conditions [1][11]. Price Data Updates - The average price for hot-rolled coils is 3322 yuan per ton, with a slight increase from the previous week. Inventory levels are decreasing, but the pace of destocking is slow [2][12]. - Coking coal prices are stable, with various grades priced between 1210 and 1600 yuan per ton, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [3][13]. Supply and Demand Data Updates - The total inventory of imported iron ore at ports is reported at 170 million tons, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily average discharge volume is also declining, indicating a tightening supply [4][14]. - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a dual increase in supply and demand in the short term, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [3][13].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as having absolute value, with the CITIC Steel Index increasing by 0.2%, outperforming the market by 1.3% this week [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its economic cycle, with a profit ratio of 43.3% among 247 surveyed steel mills, despite a current average loss of 30.6 yuan per ton due to high inventory levels and moderate terminal demand [1][11]. - The iron ore inventory at ports remains high at approximately 180 million tons, with ongoing negotiations between major players causing market fluctuations [1][11]. - The market for coking coal is showing positive short-term performance, with prices driven by seasonal demand rather than cost increases [3][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview - The domestic hot-rolled coil market is showing strong price consolidation, with an average price of 3,322 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 54,000 tons week-on-week but increased by 166,800 tons month-on-month, indicating a slow destocking process [2][12]. Coking Coal Market - Prices for main coking coal in Shanxi are reported at 1,329 yuan per ton for S2.8 and 1,580 yuan per ton for S0.45 [3][13]. - The total inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 478.10 thousand tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.93 thousand tons [3][13]. Iron Ore Market - The price index for domestic iron concentrate has decreased, with the 66% concentrate price in Tangshan at 967 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan [4][14]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 170 million tons, down 980,900 tons from the previous week [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several companies within the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to prolong, leading to a strong price trend in the steel market. The raw material prices are likely to fluctuate due to the conflict, with potential supply constraints affecting mining operations [9][31]. - Steel production remains stable, with a notable decrease in total inventory, indicating a healthy demand-supply balance. The report anticipates that carbon reduction requirements will impose constraints on steel supply, which may lead to a recovery in steel company profits [9][31]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of March 27, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar is 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products show mixed price movements, with cold-rolled steel increasing by 10 CNY/ton to 3710 CNY/ton [14][15]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices are at 1120 USD/ton, down 2 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices are relatively stable with slight increases in some categories [26][28]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices remain stable, while imported iron ore prices have seen slight declines. The report notes a decrease in scrap steel prices to 2150 CNY/ton [31][36]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies, with several firms such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel receiving "Buy" recommendations based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [2][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to see a recovery in steel prices due to significant inventory reduction and improved demand as the traditional peak season approaches [9][14] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the US-Iran situation, are causing fluctuations in the domestic market, but rising raw material prices are providing short-term support for steel prices [9][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the supply structure towards low-carbon and high-quality development in the steel sector [13] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Inventory Reduction and Price Recovery - Inventory reduction is evident, with a notable decrease in both social and steel mill inventories [9][20] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.31 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.29% [14] - The report anticipates that the supply side will continue to shrink, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation in 2026 [13] 2. Supply: Steady Recovery in Downstream Production - The average daily pig iron production increased by 1.29% week-on-week, while rebar production decreased by 2.69% [15][18] - The capacity utilization rates for long-process and short-process rebar production slightly declined [15] 3. Inventory: Clear Reduction in Social and Steel Mill Inventories - Total inventory decreased by 2.49% week-on-week, with social inventory at 1.388 million tons and steel mill inventory at 510 thousand tons [21] - Rebar inventory also showed a reduction, indicating improved demand [21] 4. Demand: Marginal Increase in Steel Demand - The apparent consumption of five major steel products totaled 8.88 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.24% [23][24] - The demand for rebar saw the highest increase, with an 8.30% rise week-on-week [24] 5. Cost and Profitability: Cost Support for Steel Prices - The average pig iron cost (excluding tax) is 2,302 CNY per ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.12% [39] - The profitability rate for steel companies is 43.29%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.87 percentage points [39] 6. Steel Prices: Positive Outlook for Price Increase - The general steel price index increased by 0.08% this week, with specific products showing varied price movements [47][48] - The report suggests that with the recovery in downstream construction, steel prices are expected to continue rising [14][45] 7. Sector Performance: Steel Sector Slightly Up Amid Market Fluctuations - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the steel sector index rose by 0.42% [52][53] - The report highlights that the steel sector is performing relatively better compared to the overall market [52]