Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that commodity prices align with seasonal expectations, and equity trends reflect positive market sentiment [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,998 with a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date increase of 19.3% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,737 with a weekly increase of 4.4% and a year-to-date increase of 30.2% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) price is at 3,200 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.3% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 105 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 4.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,074,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 41.7% [6] - Total inventory at steel mills is 429,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 22.4% [6] - Port inventory of iron ore is 14,895,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.4% [6] Supply and Demand - The report highlights the weekly production of five major steel products and daily average molten iron output, indicating ongoing production levels [9][12] - The report also discusses the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across the country, reflecting the industry's capacity utilization [11][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while iron water production has decreased and profitability has declined, equity performance benefits from low valuations [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Steel Weekly Data - The SW Steel Index increased by 2.6% week-on-week and 24.7% year-to-date [3] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,076 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 41.9% [5] - The iron ore port inventory stands at 14,539 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 2.2% [5] Supply and Demand - The average daily pig iron production is projected to be 220 million tons in 2025 [9] - The report highlights the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across China, indicating a steady production environment [12][14] Price Trends - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is reported at 3,210 CNY per ton, with a year-to-date increase of 5.9% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 108 USD per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 2.4% [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4][6][72] Core Viewpoints - The construction demand is under pressure while raw material prices remain relatively strong, leading to a maintained "Overweight" rating for the industry [6] - Steel demand has shown a significant week-on-week increase, primarily driven by the resumption of work after the National Day holiday, although construction material demand remains weak year-on-year [6][10] - Steel inventory has increased week-on-week, with hot-rolled steel experiencing the most accumulation [6][15] - Iron output has decreased week-on-week but has increased year-on-year, indicating resilience in demand supported by the manufacturing sector [6][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%. The steel sector declined by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.21 percentage points [10] - Black futures prices have decreased, with rebar closing at 3037 CNY/ton, down 66 CNY/ton (2.13%), and hot-rolled coil at 3204 CNY/ton, down 81 CNY/ton (2.47%) [13][38] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.5922 million tons, although it increased by 1.5131 million tons week-on-week [15] - Total steel inventory rose to 21.7508 million tons, an increase of 389.33 thousand tons year-on-year [25] - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4095 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.0059 million tons week-on-week but an increase of 0.659 million tons year-on-year [37] Profitability and Pricing - The profitability per ton of steel has weakened, with various steel products showing fluctuating profits, such as rebar at -15 CNY/ton and hot-rolled steel at -8 CNY/ton [46] - The profit ratio among 247 steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [47] Downstream Demand - Domestic cement dispatches fell to 2.5285 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 726.5 thousand tons [58] - PVC production increased to 467.38 thousand tons, up 1.4293 thousand tons year-on-year [58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips in anticipation of a peak season in September [1] Price Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,509, with a weekly increase of 2.5% and a year-to-date increase of 19.3% [4] - The SW General Steel Index is at 2,589, with a weekly increase of 2.7% and a year-to-date increase of 24.1% [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,330 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.3% [4] - The iron ore Platts index is at 102 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.2% and a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [4] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 962,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.2% and a year-to-date increase of 26.8% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 413,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.8% and a year-to-date increase of 17.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,715,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 7.7% [5] Supply and Demand - The report indicates a steady production level, with weekly output of five major steel products at approximately 1,000,000 tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is projected to remain stable [9] Stock Performance - The report highlights the stock performance of several companies, with notable increases in some stocks while others have seen declines [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to enter a peak season, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this sector [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,077, with a year-to-date change of +1.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,070 CNY/ton, showing a year-to-date change of +10% [3] - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of +6% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 93 USD/ton, with a year-to-date change of +7% [3] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 9,120,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +3% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 4,260,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +6% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,897,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +5% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - Weekly production of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 230,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, indicating a stable production environment [12][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1]. - It highlights the recent trends in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a potential for recovery [3][5]. Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,130 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.31 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5]. - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, with a weekly decline of 10.1% and a year-to-date increase of 23.7% [5]. - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.86 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but up 6.7% year-to-date [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily average pig iron production expected to maintain current levels [9][12]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing resilience [15].