Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The political power within the Federal Reserve Board is in a fragile balance. Trump's personnel arrangements have tilted the policy scale towards the dovish side, threatening the Fed's independence. If Trump gains a majority on the board, the implementation of monetary policy independence will face greater resistance [6][28][43]. - The Fed may be facing the trend of "fiscal dominance" again. High - level government debt, expanding fiscal deficits, and political pressure are forcing monetary policy to compromise with fiscal needs rather than firmly control inflation. However, the Fed needs to maintain a certain degree of independence on the surface to avoid inflation expectations getting out of control and U.S. debt risks spiraling [6][67][68]. - There is an obvious maturity mismatch problem in the Fed's balance sheet, with a high proportion of long - term assets. After the end of the balance - sheet reduction, the Fed may increase short - term Treasury bond holdings to optimize the maturity matching [6][119]. - The ON RRP balance has significantly declined and is approaching exhaustion, and the TGA scale is still below the average in recent years. If the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet, the ON RRP may not effectively hedge liquidity fluctuations, and bank reserves may face downward pressure. The Fed may restart "reserve - management bond purchases", which is beneficial to short - duration assets [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Fed Decoded: History, Organization, and Decision - Making Framework 1.1 Fed Historical Context - The evolution of the Federal Reserve reflects continuous innovation and change in monetary policy in response to different economic crises. In 2025, it returned to the "Flexible Inflation Target" (FIT) framework, aiming to more strictly anchor the 2% inflation target while retaining flexibility in responding to the employment market [14]. 1.2 Fed Organizational Structure - The Fed consists of the Board of Governors, 12 Federal Reserve Banks and their branches, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board of Governors is the highest decision - making body, and the Federal Reserve Banks play an important role in operations. The FOMC is the core decision - making body for monetary policy [18][19]. - Currently, Trump is trying to influence the Fed's leadership composition through personnel arrangements. Although the Fed is trying to show unity, if Trump gets a majority on the board, his control over monetary policy will be further strengthened [28][29]. 1.3 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) - The FOMC holds eight regular meetings a year to discuss economic and financial conditions and formulate monetary policies. The post - meeting statement is the core document for understanding monetary policy trends [37]. - The voting records in the statement are important sources of information on the Fed's policy stance. There are different levels of influence within the Fed, with the chair having the strongest voice, the seven governors having permanent voting rights, and other members having different voting rights [39][40]. - The political power within the Fed's board is in a fragile balance. Trump's actions have tilted the policy towards the dovish side, and if he gets a stable majority, the implementation of monetary policy independence will face greater resistance [41][43]. 2. What Does the Return Mean? - The Return of "Fiscal Dominance" Pressure to FIT 2.1 The Origin of the "Dual Mandate" - After World War II, the Fed's monetary policy was restricted by the Treasury. In 1951, the "Treasury - Fed Agreement" marked the beginning of the Fed's independent formulation of monetary policy. In 1977, the Fed was given the "dual mandate" through legislation [47][52]. 2.2 The Birth of the Flexible Inflation Targeting - Since the 1990s, central banks around the world have increased policy transparency. In 2012, the Fed's "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) framework was formally established, with a long - term inflation target of 2% [56][57]. 2.3 Addressing the Challenge of Long - Term Low Inflation: The Formation and New Consensus of the FAIT Framework - In 2020, the Fed introduced the FAIT framework to deal with the long - term low - inflation and zero - lower - bound dilemma. Its core idea is to allow inflation to moderately exceed 2% for a period to compensate for previous periods of low inflation [58][59]. 2.4 Framework Adjustment: Return from FAIT to FIT - In 2025, the Fed returned to the FIT framework. The FAIT framework failed to control inflation during the pandemic, and the return to FIT aims to strengthen the Fed's credibility in inflation targeting and ease market inflation expectations [62][66]. - The Fed may be facing the trend of "fiscal dominance" again, but it needs to maintain a certain degree of independence on the surface [67][68]. 3. Is the End of Balance - Sheet Reduction Near as ON RRP Approaches Exhaustion? 3.1 Understanding the Fed's Price - Based Tools - The Fed's price - based tools form an "interest rate corridor" system to keep the market interest rate within the target range. The main tools include the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB), Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ON RRP), Discount Rate, and Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [81][86][100]. - The IORB and ON RRP form a "double - floor" system to absorb excess liquidity. The ON RRP is the "hard floor" of the interest rate corridor, and the IORB is the "soft ceiling" of the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) [91][92][99]. 3.2 Understanding the Fed's Balance Sheet - The Fed's balance sheet has expanded significantly due to quantitative easing policies during the global financial crisis and the COVID - 19 pandemic. There is a maturity mismatch problem, with a high proportion of long - term assets [108][119]. - The Fed's liabilities mainly include currency, the Treasury General Account (TGA), reserves, and reverse repurchase agreements. The Fed may adjust its securities holdings by increasing short - term Treasury bonds to optimize the maturity matching [115][119]. 3.3 Will Balance - Sheet Reduction Be Suspended as ON RRP Is Exhausted? - Since June 2022, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet. The decline in the ON RRP balance is the main manifestation of the liability reduction, and bank reserves have remained relatively stable. Currently, the reserve market is still in an abundant state, and the Fed may restart "reserve - management bond purchases" [120]. 4. What to Expect After Balance - Sheet Reduction? - "Reserve - Management Bond Purchases" May Restart - The Fed may restart "reserve - management bond purchases" by increasing short - term Treasury bond holdings to maintain sufficient reserves, which can also optimize the balance - sheet structure and support the demand for short - term Treasury bonds, benefiting short - duration assets [6].

阅读时间：11分钟 美联储货币政策操作已逐步演进为一个简洁框架：充足储备金框架以及"双下限"和"一上限"的利率框架。充足准备金框架维护金融体系的流动性；准备金 余额利率（IORB）和逆回购利率（RRP）分别设定银行体系和市场利率下限（"双下限"），常备回购便利（SRF）利率设定政策性利率上限("一上限")， 形成政策性利率区间（比如目前的4.0-4.25%）。这种简洁操作框架一定程度上体现出流动性与利率分离管理的逻辑，对现代货币金融学的研究和教学来 说，是一种新探索和新演进。 美联储货币政策操作的两大核心任务是管理好当前及未来一段时间内与经济状态相匹配的市场流动性和利率水平。 来源：人大CMF 王晋斌 中国人民大学经济学院原常务副书记兼副院长、国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）主要成员 本文字数：3368字 IORB利率和RRP共同为隔夜利率设定了一个下限：IORB对应银行体系利率下限，RRP对应没有资格获得IROB的金融机构利率下限。这两种利率之间的差 距小，需要平衡商业银行持有储备的机会成本和货币市场逆回购之间的收益（成本），以保持银行市场与金融市场之间的平衡。比如，当银行系统的流动 ...