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海外观察:美国2025年8月杰克逊霍尔会议:鲍威尔鸽派发言加强降息预期
Donghai Securities· 2025-08-24 14:31
Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has shifted from the "Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) framework to a "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) approach, acknowledging that the previous strategy is not suitable for the post-pandemic economic environment[2] - The Fed has removed the "Effective Lower Bound" (ELB) as a core economic feature, emphasizing the need for a monetary policy framework that adapts to the current high inflation and high interest rate environment[2] - The long-term inflation target remains at 2%, but the Fed will not set specific numerical targets for employment[4] Employment and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating that while the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, it masks underlying risks due to a slowdown in both labor supply and demand[3] - The Fed's focus has shifted from prioritizing inflation to addressing employment shortfalls, with a greater emphasis on preventive measures rather than reactive ones[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are likely to have a one-time impact on price levels, suggesting that the weak labor market will suppress inflationary pressures[3] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following Powell's dovish remarks, U.S. stock markets rose, bond yields fell, gold prices increased, and the dollar index declined, indicating strengthened expectations for a rate cut in September[3] - The report suggests that a rate cut in September is highly probable, with limited impact from upcoming employment and inflation data unless they deviate significantly from expectations[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflationary pressures from tariffs and a sharper-than-expected decline in the U.S. economy and employment[4]
鲍威尔的“遗产”
"40多年前,堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园,我很自豪能延续这一传统。"当地时间 8月22日,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 面向未来,鲍威尔更新了外界期待已久的美联储货币政策框架,从"灵活平均通胀目标制"(FAIT)转 向"灵活通胀目标制"(FIT),在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上,鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔,留下自己的"遗产",他的愿望能否实 现? 误判 在2020年通胀率低于目标之后,2021年3月和4月大幅攀升。最初的通胀率激增集中在供应短缺的商品 上,如机动车辆,价格涨幅极大。鲍威尔和同事们最初判断,这些与疫情相关的因素不会持续,因此认 为通胀的突然上升可能会很快过去,不需要货币政策的干预。 "通胀暂时论"当时被广泛接受,大多数主流分析师和发达经济体的央行行长都持这一看法。普遍的预期 是,供应状况会较快改善,需求的迅速复苏将走到尽头,需求会从商品转向服务,从而降低通胀。一段 时间内,数据与暂时性通胀的假设一致。2021年4月至9月,核心通胀数据每月都在下降,尽管进展比预 期缓慢。 但到2021年年中,这一假设的支撑开始减弱。从2021 ...
鲍威尔的三件“遗产”
记者丨吴斌 编辑丨李莹亮 "40多年前,堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园,我很自豪能延续这一传统。"当地时间 8月22日,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 20世纪70年代,美国通胀率曾一度高达13.3%。为遏制恶性通胀,时任美联储主席沃克尔将利率前所未 有地提高到了20%,最终遏制住了通胀,付出的代价是美国GDP增速从1978年的5.5%降至了1982年 的-1.8%。 两个时代各有特点,鲍威尔的表现可圈可点,一方面,虽然疫情暴发后美联储抗通胀的动作稍慢,鲍威 尔后知后觉,但没有出现方向性错误,其任期内数十年未见的高通胀基本被"暴力加息"浇灭,长期通胀 预期并未失控。 面向未来,鲍威尔更新了外界期待已久的美联储货币政策框架,从"灵活平均通胀目标制"(FAIT)转 向"灵活通胀目标制"(FIT),在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上,鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔,留下自己的"遗产",他的愿望能否实 现? 误判 在疫情暴发后,鲍威尔一度判断失误,美国通胀率意外飙升至数十年未见的高位。 在2020年通胀率低于目标之后,2021年3月和4月大幅攀升。最初的通胀率 ...
鲍威尔的三件“遗产”
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-23 15:02
"40多年前,堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园,我很自豪能延续这一传统。" 当地时间8月22日,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 20世纪70年代,美国通胀率曾一度高达13.3%。为遏制恶性通胀,时任美联储主席沃克尔将利 率前所未有地提高到了20%,最终遏制住了通胀,付出的代价是美国GDP增速从1978年的 5.5%降至了1982年的-1.8%。 两个时代各有特点,鲍威尔的表现可圈可点,一方面,虽然疫情暴发后美联储抗通胀的动作稍 慢,鲍威尔后知后觉,但没有出现方向性错误,其任期内数十年未见的高通胀基本被"暴力加 息"浇灭,长期通胀预期并未失控。 面 向 未 来 , 鲍 威 尔 更 新 了 外 界 期 待 已 久 的 美 联 储 货 币 政 策 框 架 , 从 " 灵 活 平 均 通 胀 目 标 制"(FAIT)转向"灵活通胀目标制"(FIT),在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上,鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔,留下自己的"遗产",他的愿望 能否实现? 误判 在疫情暴发后,鲍威尔一度判断失误,美国通胀率意外飙升至数十年未见的高位。 在2020年通胀率低于目标 ...
21深度|鲍威尔的“遗产”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 11:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Powell's leadership, particularly the shift from the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) to the "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) framework, reflecting the changing economic conditions and the need for a more responsive policy approach [1][7][11] Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Evolution - In the 1970s, the U.S. faced high inflation, prompting then-Fed Chair Volcker to raise interest rates to 20%, which led to a significant GDP decline [1] - Powell's initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic was slow, as he underestimated the persistence of inflation, which surged unexpectedly [2][3] - The Fed's initial belief in "transitory inflation" was widely accepted, but by mid-2021, it became clear that inflation was not temporary, leading to a tightening of monetary policy starting in November 2021 [2][6] Group 2: New Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's new framework, FIT, emphasizes a 2% inflation target while allowing for more flexibility in response to economic conditions, moving away from the previous FAIT approach [5][7] - Key modifications in the new framework include the removal of references to "employment shortfalls," allowing for preemptive actions against rising inflation risks [7][8] - The FIT framework aims for a more generalized policy response, acknowledging the complexities of the current economic environment, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [8][10] Group 3: Legacy and Future Implications - Powell's legacy includes the formal transition to FIT, modernizing the Fed's toolkit, and institutionalizing regular reviews of monetary policy [9][10] - The new framework is expected to lead to a world characterized by moderate inflation, higher neutral interest rates, and frequent supply shocks, with a stricter adherence to the 2% inflation target [10][11] - The Fed's approach is shifting towards a more proactive stance, utilizing real-time data to inform decisions rather than waiting for lagging indicators [11]