非农就业、通胀数据等这些平日里美联储决策的重要参考，通通无法按时呈现在决策者眼前，整个决策 环境变得迷雾重重。 9月16日至17日举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，引起市场广泛关注。 其核心成果将基准利率下调25个基点至4%至4.25%的区间，然而，与往常不同，政府停摆掐断了关键经 济数据的脉搏，非农报告、通胀指标集体"失踪"。 他们面前是一个前所未有的困局，一边是关乎民众饭碗的就业，一边是关乎物价稳定的通胀，在这两难 的夹击中，他们究竟是如何权衡利弊。 降息背景：数据断供下的艰难抉择 在经济的舞台上，美联储的决策向来都很重要。 然而，近期一场 "风暴" 却让它陷入了前所未有的困境美国政府停摆了，这可不是简单的行政暂停。 它带来的直接后果就是关键经济数据仿佛被按下了 "暂停键"。 而此时，就业市场和通胀情况本就像两个难以平衡的跷跷板两端。 就业市场方面，新增就业人数不再如往日那般亮眼，增长速度悄然放缓，仿佛在无声地诉说着潜在的危 机。 另一边，通胀却如脱缰之马，持续高企，顽固地盘踞在高位，丝毫没有轻易低头的迹象。 美联储本就肩负着充分就业和物价稳定这两大使命，此刻在数据缺失的情况下，更是陷入两难之境。 ...

报告指出："20世纪70年代初以及疫情期间的通胀预期飙升，在很大程度上可由当时能源与食品价格的 急剧上涨，以及贯穿那些时期的普遍性通胀来解释。然而，我们的估算显示，20世纪70年代末的通胀预 期飙升与物价上涨的关联性并不紧密，2025年春季开始的这轮通胀预期上升同样如此。" 研究人员警告，这种无法用短期物价波动解释的预期上升，"可能表明，通胀预期像20世纪70年代末那 样'脱锚'的风险已显著上升"。不过，报告亦强调，"目前来看，这些风险仍处于可控范围"。（新华财 经） 波士顿联储发布研究报告指出，当前美国家庭通胀预期的急剧上升，对美联储实现2%通胀目标的能力 构成比以往更大的风险。与疫情期间不同，本轮通胀预期的抬升并非主要由食品和能源价格驱动，这一 特征显著增加了通胀预期持续高于政策目标的可能性。 该报告由波士顿联储研究人员Philippe Andrade与Michael Wicklein撰写，基于密歇根大学消费者调查数 据展开分析。研究发现，当前通胀预期的走势与20世纪70年代末的情形更为相似——彼时通胀率飙升， 但预期上升与实际物价变动的关联性较弱，最终促使美联储启动激进加息周期以重建信誉。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，波士顿联储近期发布的一份报告指出，与以往相比，当前通胀预期的急剧上升，对 美联储控制物价的能力构成了更大风险。 今年以来，随着美国家庭逐步消化特朗普政府激进的贸易政策，并为进口商品价格上涨做准备，消费者 对通胀的预期持续走高。美联储官员也在密切关注这些政策举措，以评估关税政策究竟会引发一次性的 价格冲击，还是导致通胀更持久地飙升。 研究指出："我们发现，20世纪70年代初以及疫情期间的通胀预期飙升，在很大程度上可由当时能源与 食品价格的急剧上涨，以及贯穿那些时期的普遍性通胀来解释。然而，我们的估算显示，20世纪70年代 末的通胀预期飙升与物价上涨的关联性并不紧密，2025年春季开始的这轮通胀预期上升同样如此。" 对于密歇根大学调查中显示的通胀预期居高不下的结果，美联储官员曾多次将其定性为"异常值"，并表 示其他通胀预期指标仍与2%的目标相符。但在纽约联储一项备受关注的调查中，9月消费者对未来一年 的通胀预期同样攀升至3.4%;同期对三年和五年的通胀预期，更是比美联储2%的目标高出整整1个百分 点。 研究人员Philippe Andrade与Michael Wicklein通过分析密歇根大学 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issues a rare acceleration warning, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to re-accelerate next year rather than experience a soft landing, which could complicate monetary policy by 2026 [2] - The report highlights three key factors contributing to the upward risk for GDP: resilient labor market, fiscal stimulus, and loose financial conditions, with the GDP growth forecast for Q3 raised to an annualized rate of 2.6% [2] - If these favorable conditions materialize, GDP growth could exceed 3.5% in the first half of next year, significantly above the market consensus of 1.8% [2] Group 2 - Two scenarios are presented for trading strategies: Scenario A involves a dovish new chair with slow action on tightening, suggesting long positions in inflation-linked assets and short positions in the dollar [3] - Scenario B anticipates independent rate hikes starting in Q2 2026, recommending steepening the yield curve and investing in financial stocks while shorting long-duration bonds [3] - The report warns that volatility is likely underestimated, with the current MOVE index at 90, well below the historical average of 120, indicating potential for a sell-off in the bond market if data continues to exceed expectations [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to prepare for tools that benefit from a steepening yield curve and to closely monitor the political dynamics between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as the 2026 interest rate path may hinge on personnel decisions rather than inflation data [4]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Trump dismissing Powell is considered low due to the high difficulty, low reward, and significant risks involved. Trump is more likely to influence the Federal Reserve by announcing a successor in advance, but the impact on reshaping the Fed may be limited due to internal policy disagreements [1][3]. Group 1 - Trump's criticism of Powell reflects the spread of "fiscal anxiety," exacerbated by the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill," which indicates a growing reliance on pro-cyclical deficits, leading to high debt issuance costs and declining long-term bond acceptance [1]. - Pressuring the Federal Reserve is viewed as a "damaging tactic" to address fiscal anxiety, which may have immediate effects but significant side effects, increasing the probability of a "triple whammy" scenario in the stock, bond, and currency markets if investors perceive threats to the Fed's independence and transparency [1]. - The recent stablecoin legislation aims to alleviate the Treasury's debt issuance pressure while stripping the Fed of its authority to issue digital currency, thereby creating a "shadow Fed" represented by stablecoin issuers, which expands the White House's control and regulatory scope over the money supply [1]. Group 2 - Historical experience shows that the credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial. The case of Burns during Nixon's presidency illustrates the risks of political pressure leading to overly accommodative monetary policy, which can create long-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The loss of the Fed's independence and a "stop-and-go" approach to monetary policy could increase the risk of unanchored inflation expectations, making it costly to restore credibility once lost [3]. - The mechanisms designed to ensure the Fed's independence present three significant obstacles for Trump in achieving his rate cut goals [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure exerted by President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the implications for the Fed's independence and the capital markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Visit and Pressure on the Fed - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve is the first by a sitting president in nearly 20 years, aimed at pressuring Chairman Powell to lower interest rates [3]. - Trump suggested that reducing rates by three percentage points could save the U.S. over $1 trillion [3]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points in 2026, up from an earlier expectation of 25 basis points [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Powell - Congressman Luna has accused Powell of perjury regarding the $25 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters, claiming he misrepresented the project's luxury features and budget adjustments [6]. - The allegations come amid ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies, aiming to undermine Powell's authority and potentially set the stage for his removal [6][9]. - Powell has denied the allegations and initiated an internal review of the renovation project to restore public trust [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-term Risks - Short-term market reactions show a rise in stock indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a focus on corporate earnings rather than political turmoil [7]. - The bond market reflects increased risk aversion, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by approximately 6 basis points [7]. - Long-term risks include challenges to the Fed's independence, which could lead to inflation expectations becoming unanchored and damage the credibility of the U.S. dollar [7][10]. Group 4: Legal and Internal Factors - Legally, removing the Fed Chairman requires "just cause," and if the perjury allegations are not substantiated, it may be difficult to remove Powell [9]. - Internal opposition exists, with moderate figures like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin opposing the removal, citing the current economic stability [9]. Group 5: Conclusion and Investor Guidance - The situation is characterized as a political struggle using moral issues, with limited short-term market impact but potential long-term systemic risks due to the erosion of the Fed's independence [10]. - Investors are advised to monitor the judicial investigation and Trump's policy direction, prioritizing assets that can withstand volatility, such as gold and short-term Treasuries, while being cautious of long-term credit risks associated with dollar assets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank's recent decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 15% has raised concerns among economists about the sustainability of federal debt and the need for effective fiscal reforms to alleviate pressure on public finances [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate, marking a new high and raising market concerns about debt sustainability [1]. - Approximately 47% of federal public debt is linked to floating rate bonds, with a total stock of 3.75 trillion Brazilian Reais. A 1% increase in interest rates will raise debt costs by 37.5 billion Reais within a year [1]. - The recent 0.25 percentage point increase is estimated to lead to an additional expenditure of about 12.1 billion Reais over the next 12 months [2]. Group 2: Debt Projections - The total federal debt could approach the set limit of 8.5 trillion Reais by the end of 2025, up from 7.3 trillion Reais at the end of 2024, due to rising financing needs and increased borrowing costs [2]. - Interest payments on federal domestic currency debt are projected to reach 540.43 billion Reais over the next 12 months at current interest rates [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Economists express that the tightening of monetary policy reflects market concerns over the ongoing expansion of fiscal policy, which exacerbates inflationary pressures [2][3]. - The reliance on debt to pay interest has created a vicious cycle, with warnings that without achieving a basic fiscal surplus, total debt will continue to rise [3]. - The urgency for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is increasingly evident as Brazil faces the dual challenges of high interest rates and high debt levels [3].

Group 1: Economic Insights - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, warned that the ongoing rise in food prices could become an "invisible bomb" for increasing Japan's core inflation [1] - Japan's core inflation rate is nearing the central bank's target of 2%, with food inflation, particularly rice prices, surging by 90% year-on-year, disrupting traditional inflation drivers [1] - Ueda emphasized that while the central bank maintains the view that the impact of rising food prices will gradually diminish, any minor fluctuations could trigger a chain reaction due to the current proximity to the 2% threshold [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Despite a recent pullback, gold prices are expected to trend upward due to geopolitical risks, tariff policies, and concerns over the U.S. budget, with Citigroup raising its 0-3 month target price to $3,500 per ounce [2] - UBS also maintains a bullish stance, anticipating that gold will test the $3,500 mark again [2] - The market remains above $3,310, with strong safe-haven demand, suggesting traders should maintain a bullish outlook and watch for entry points driven by news headlines [2] Group 3: Gold Price Movements - On May 27, international gold prices exhibited volatility, opening at $3,343.63 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,349.78 and a low of $3,331.41, closing at $3,344.63 with a slight increase of 0.06% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Central Bank of Brazil indicates that inflation expectations in Brazil have long been unanchored [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights concerns regarding the persistent inflation expectations in Brazil [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that supply-side shocks may persist and could threaten the anchoring of inflation expectations, emphasizing the need for readiness to respond swiftly [1] Group 1 - Supply-side shocks are likely to continue affecting the economy [1] - There is a potential risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored due to these shocks [1] - The necessity for prompt responses to economic changes is highlighted [1]