1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is currently in a state of oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset, while in the long - term, there is still some downward pressure. Although the suspension of Guinea mines has reduced the ore supply, the current reduction scale will not cause a long - term supply gap, which restricts the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 668 yuan/ton, and the arrival - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Ore supply in some areas of Henan was tight due to mine suspension, while in Shanxi, mines in operation continued and those not in operation remained under rectification. In terms of imports, the military government in Guinea designated the AXIS mining area as a military reserve, causing three mines to shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased significantly, and the mainstream transaction price rose to 74 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. During the period, 457.3 million tons of new ore arrived, including 380.3 million tons from Guinea and 71.6 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 US dollars/ton [2][12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3288.3 yuan/ton, up 267.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term supply shortage caused by phased large - scale production cuts, the spot price continued to rise. In the northern market, 4.7 million tons of alumina were traded, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3164 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Australian FOB price of 374 US dollars/ton was equivalent to about 3318 yuan/ton in RMB, and China's alumina export window remained closed. By the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2944 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 68 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the return of maintenance capacity and the gradual release of new capacity led to a recovery in domestic alumina production capacity. The national alumina production capacity was 11082 million tons, with 8800 million tons in operation, an increase of 115 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.4% [3][13] Demand - There was no change in domestic demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week. There was also no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2940.8 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week [13] Inventory - As of Thursday (May 22), the national alumina inventory was 321 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was polarized. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was stable, while the inventory of some small enterprises and supporting industrial chain groups decreased due to the lack of alumina production capacity. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased due to concentrated maintenance capacity and tight shipping. The port inventory fluctuated little, and the inventory would change after the normal port collection was completed [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164199 tons, a decrease of 40536 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price rose and then fell last week. With the reduction in ore supply caused by the shutdown of Guinea mines, the market was no longer in a large - scale surplus but in a slight surplus or tight balance. It is expected that the bottom of the long - term ore price will gradually rise. However, since the current reduction in ore production will not cause a long - term supply gap, ore does not have the basis for a significant price increase, which limits the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On May 23, 0.3 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Baise, Guangxi, at an ex - factory price of 3300 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina plant and a trader. Also on May 23, 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 3300 yuan/ton, a spot - exchange transaction between traders [17] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - Charts include domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [11][18][25] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Charts cover domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table shows the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand difference from January to May 2025 [11][32][39] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts involve electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts [11][42][45]

1-4月进口占比78.38%，同比大增42.2%！数据影响下，几内亚矿石政策能否继续推动氧化铝价格上涨？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a decline in Guinea's ore prices has increased, while alumina prices have stabilized in the short term. Although the supply and cost of alumina still face pressure, the price valuation is not high and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter a bottoming stage [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. The含税 price of Shanxi ore (58/5) was 700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; that of Henan ore (58/5) was 668 yuan/ton; and the delivered含税 price of Guizhou 60/6 bauxite remained at 596 yuan/ton. Due to the deepening of the mine resource integration policy, some mines were shut down. The supply of Shanxi ore remained tight, and the output stability of复产 mines and existing mines was to be observed. The成交 price of Guinea ore (45/3) fell below 80 US dollars/dry ton, exceeding expectations. The market was in an obvious oversupply situation, and most downstream enterprises had little spot procurement. GIC said the dispute would be resolved soon. During the period, 4.607 million tons of new ore arrived, including 3.523 million tons from Guinea and 1.056 million tons from Australia. The Cape shipping freight from Guinea to China was stable at 20 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2850 - 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2886.6 yuan/ton, up 22.8 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2950 - 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Due to domestic large - scale maintenance and capacity increase, market pessimism eased slightly, and the enthusiasm of traders to sell at a large discount decreased. The northern market traded 41,000 tons of alumina spot this week, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the weighted成交 price was 2871 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. There were no public成交 reports in the overseas market. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2998 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was - 105 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the overall operating level did not fluctuate significantly. The national alumina production capacity was 109.92 million tons, with 87.3 million tons in operation, an increase of 150,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.9%. In terms of demand, Sichuan Guangyuan Hongchang Sheng Aluminum resumed production, with a current operating capacity of 120,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons week - on - week. There was no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.358 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, the national alumina inventory was 3.423 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises fluctuated slightly, with some enterprises increasing inventory and some decreasing. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased significantly, and the domestic trade inventory in the Bohai Rim port area increased. The overall social alumina inventory showed a phased decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 282,523 tons, a decrease of 13,258 tons from the previous week. Although the previous oversupply situation had improved, the pressure of new capacity release remained, and the cost side began to loosen. Overall, the supply, demand, and cost of alumina still faced pressure, but the price valuation was not high, and the futures price might enter a bottoming stage [15]. 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain This Week - Two batches of spot alumina in the Shandong region had different成交 prices. 0.2 million tons of spot alumina was traded at an ex - factory price of 2870 yuan/ton, and 0.4 million tons was traded at a price of 2950 yuan/ton from a Shandong alumina factory to a Henan aluminum factory [16]. - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Chongqing completed maintenance ahead of schedule but continued to operate at a reduced capacity due to high production costs, with the current operating level at 3.7 million tons, 900,000 tons lower than the full - production level before maintenance [16]. - An alumina enterprise in Henan shut down two low - temperature production lines, involving a production capacity of 400,000 tons, due to high ore prices and increased losses [16]. 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The section includes charts on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][20][23][26][28][30][32]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The section includes charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The data shows the historical changes in the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand gap [37][39][40][44]. 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The section includes charts on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [47][50][52][54][56].