周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 矿石价格下行趋势放缓， 氧化铝供给扰动持续 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 3 1 | 年 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 矿石价格下行趋势放缓，氧化铝供给扰动持续 有 色 原料：上周国内矿石价格持稳，山西 58/5 品位矿石到厂含税价 格 640 元，河南 58/5 铝土矿到厂价 610 元 / 吨。春节期间多 数矿山进入停产周期，当前国内铝土矿市场暂未启动实质性交 易。进口方面，几矿 45/3 均价报 60.5 美元/干吨，矿山及贸易 商均有意稳价，多认为价格下调至 CIF 60 美元/吨以下后对市场 各方弊多利少。海运费价格小幅上涨后，几内亚 FOB 价格已跌 破部分矿山成本。期内新到矿石 539.6 万吨，其中新到几内亚资 源 465.1 万吨，澳大利亚资源 74.5 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 23.5 美元/吨。 金 属 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格稳中小幅上涨。阿 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 矿石价格持稳， 氧化铝供给压减 [Table_Summary] ★ 矿石价格持稳，氧化铝供给压减 有 色 原料：上周国内矿石价格持稳，山西 58/5 品位矿石到厂含税价 格 640 元，河南 58/5 铝土矿到厂价 610 元 / 吨。春节期间多 数矿山进入停产周期，市场价格维持相对稳定，但价格仍处于下 行周期。进口方面，阿拉丁（ALD）几内亚矿（45/3）报价维持 61-62 美元/干吨，下游用户接货意向逐渐向 CIF 55 美元/吨靠拢。 海运费价格小幅上涨后，几内亚 FOB 价格已跌破部分矿山成本。 期内新到矿石 423.2 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 353.4 万吨，澳 大利亚资源69.7万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape船市场参考报价26.5 美元/吨。 金 属 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格维持稳定。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2580-2640 元/吨，较上周持平；国产加权指数 2610.4 元/吨，较上周持平。进口氧化铝港口报价在 2700-2740 元/吨， 较上周持平。市场价格受市场传闻影响，波动相对剧烈。进口方 面，西澳大利亚 3 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石价格下跌， 氧化铝供给维持高位 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 1 | 年 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿石价格下跌，氧化铝供给维持高位 原料：上周国内矿石价格持稳，山西 58/5 品位矿石到厂含税价 格 665 元。国产矿的供应始终处于偏紧状态，对价格形成一定支 撑，但难以改变下行趋势。进口方面，阿拉丁（ALD）几内亚 矿指数价格已从 66 美元/干吨跌至 61.5 美元/干吨。几内亚各矿 山运行稳定，矿山进一步提升产能。期内新到矿石 448.2 万吨， 其中新到几内亚资源 359.5 万吨，澳大利亚资源 88.7 万吨。几内 亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 22 美元/吨。 有 色 金 属 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方综合 价格在 2580-2640 元/吨，较上周下跌 10 元/吨；国产加权指数 2616.8 元/ ...

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Volatility [1] Core Views - The price of bauxite in Guinea is weak, and the supply of domestic alumina remains stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, and after a phased rebound, the market is expected to return to a weak pattern. [1][2][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, domestic ore prices were stable. The delivered ex - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi dropped to 665 yuan. There was less market - flowing ore and tight spot supply. A new CIF transaction of low - grade bauxite from Guinea was recorded at 60 US dollars per dry ton, equivalent to 63 - 64 US dollars per dry ton for 45/3 standard grade. Newly arrived ore was 4.599 million tons, including 3.846 million tons from Guinea and 0.553 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China was 20 US dollars per ton. [2][12] - **Alumina**: Last week, the spot price of alumina declined. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2600 - 2640 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2627.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34.1 yuan per ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The alumina futures price fell from a high. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2642 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 61 yuan per ton. The total supply remained stable with both maintenance and restarts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.25 million tons in operation, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 84%. [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhala Aluminum continued to be put into production, and the company's overall operating capacity increased to 900,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum project of Angola Huatong Industrial Co., Ltd. was put into production on January 15th, with a total built - in capacity of 120,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons. [13] - **Inventory**: As of January 15th, the national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week. The growth of alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down, and the inventory in alumina enterprises increased slightly, mainly in medium - sized alumina enterprises without industrial chain support. Port inventory increased due to unloaded and unshipped vessels. Near the Spring Festival, the operation level and inventory reserve willingness of non - aluminum industries decreased, and the fine alumina inventory outside the scope was accumulating. [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 176,802 tons, an increase of 17,160 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price fluctuated. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises were still not determined to cut production, the industry remained in an oversupply situation, and inventory continued to accumulate. [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Alumina Theoretical Northern Import Loss**: As of January 16th, the Australian alumina quotation was about 308 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from January 9th. The theoretical cost of reaching the northern ports of China was about 2682 yuan per ton, and the theoretical northern import loss was about 62 yuan per ton. [16] - **Indonesian Bauxite Policy and Alumina Market Dynamics**: From 2024 - 2025, the RKAB quota of Indonesian bauxite gradually tightened, from 15.87 million tons in 2024 to 12 - 15 million tons in 2025. In contrast, the local alumina production capacity in Indonesia increased to 6 million tons, with an increase of 3 million tons in 2025 alone. [16] - **Alumina Market Operation and Trading**: Recently, the alumina operation level remained above 95 million tons, but the restart and maintenance of roasting furnaces in different enterprises were still going on. At the beginning of this week, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi resumed full - production after maintenance, while a roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Henan started maintenance on January 13th and was expected to resume production on January 18th, with limited overall output fluctuations. [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and domestic alumina production costs in each province, with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [17][19][24] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina, with data sources from Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [31][33][35] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with data sources mainly from Aladdin, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [42][47][50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of domestic bauxite has declined, while the supply of alumina has changed little. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, with prices expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [1][2][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, the price of domestic bauxite dropped significantly. The delivered - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi decreased to 665 yuan/ton, a reduction of 33 yuan/ton. The import price of 45/3 grade bauxite from Guinea was 65.5 dollars/dry ton. Shunda Mining plans to ship 15 vessels in January and produce 25 - 30 million tons this year. Sinohydro plans to produce 15 million tons this year. During the period, 3.324 million tons of new ore arrived, including 2.242 million tons from Guinea and 1.081 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 21 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was 2600 - 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2661.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.8 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. There were 6 public alumina transactions overseas this week, totaling 180,000 tons, and 3 vessels will be shipped to China later. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2657 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 57 yuan/ton. The national alumina supply was relatively stable, with a built - in capacity of 114.62 million tons, an operating capacity of 95.85 million tons (an increase of 150,000 tons compared to before the festival), and an operating rate of 83.6%. In terms of demand, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhalv is being gradually put into production, and the overall operating capacity of the enterprise has increased to 870,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.413 million tons, a weekly increase of 5,000 tons. There is no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 29.781 million tons, unchanged from last week [3][13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (January 8th), the national alumina inventory was 4.935 million tons, an increase of 84,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory increase of electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down. The inventory of alumina enterprises continued to increase slightly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/delivery warehouses also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 159,642 tons, an increase of 1,824 tons compared to last week. The alumina futures price oscillated. The alumina industry remains in an oversupply situation, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, the price previously over - declined. With the introduction of policy expectations, the price rebounded from the bottom, but the industry is still in an oversupply cycle, and the market is expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Northern Import Loss**: As of Friday (January 9th), the price of Australian alumina was about 310 dollars/ton, a 3 - dollar increase compared to December 31st. The estimated cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2736 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan increase compared to the previous period. The theoretical northern import loss was about 96 yuan/ton. However, due to the rise of the alumina futures market, some merchants turned to overseas to purchase delivery products to lock in profits [16] - **Market Contradictions**: The structural and liquidity contradictions in the alumina market are significantly deviated. Some aluminum plants with high inventories do not purchase on the spot market, and some normal - tendering aluminum plants have stopped tendering temporarily and are watching. Spot - purchasing aluminum plants follow the market or offer firm prices with significant discounts. In recent industrial transactions, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 2570 yuan/ton, with a discount of about 30 yuan/ton compared to the website quotation and a discount of about 165 yuan/ton compared to the 2602 contract [16] - **Futures Rise and Spot Cooling**: The alumina futures price continued to rise, but the spot market trading atmosphere cooled down compared to before the New Year's Day holiday. The market trading volume was less than 10,000 tons. Traders had previously sold a large amount of spot to futures - cash merchants, and the latter's purchasing volume was approaching the upper limit. Since December 26th, 2025, futures - cash merchants have purchased about 250,000 - 300,000 tons of spot, including about 40% of delivery products and 60% of non - standard products. Currently, futures - cash merchants mainly trade at the 2602 contract price, with quotes in Shandong at 20 yuan/ton lower than the 02 contract, in Henan at 50 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract, and in Shanxi at 30 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract [17] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in each province [18][20][26] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It also provides a table of the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina from August 2025 to January 2026 [33][40][43] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report includes data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, and the total social inventory of alumina, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [46][50][55]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - **Aluminum Price**: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - **Futures Data**: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - **Price Differences** - **Spot - Futures Price Differences**: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest** - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Bauxite**: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - **Processed Products** - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing** - **Output**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - **开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - **Import and Export** - **Import**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Guinea's bauxite price has slightly decreased, leading to a minor improvement in alumina supply. However, the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and the price has theoretical downward space. It is not advisable to over - speculate, and a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite were 700 yuan/ton, 658 yuan/ton, and 596 yuan/ton respectively. Although some mines in Shanxi and Henan resumed production after the rainy season, the increase was limited. Due to the heating season and strict mining regulations, domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of Guinea's bauxite dropped by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 70 - 71 US dollars/dry ton, and its shipping volume is recovering. Newly arrived ore was 398.3 million tons, including 264.7 million tons from Guinea and 127.8 million tons from Australia. The market reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China rose slightly to 24.5 US dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased slightly last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2833.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton from last week. The port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. After a round of replenishment, downstream demand decreased. The import window was closed. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2818 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 58 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.1 million tons in operation, an increase of 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.6% [13] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 44.233 million tons, unchanged from the previous period. Overseas, Indonesia's Xinfa Juwang Aluminum Industry was in stable production, with an operating capacity of about 80,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.596 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of November 20th, the national alumina inventory was 4.344 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from last week. Due to factors such as high - efficiency shipping and environmental protection restrictions, inventory changes varied in different sectors [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 250,910 tons, a decrease of 2,744 tons from last week. The alumina futures price continued to be weak. With the decline in Guinea's bauxite price and the increase in loss - making production capacity, the market remained in oversupply [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Overseas Freight and Import Profit**: On November 21st, the price of Australian alumina was about 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged from November 14th. The cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. Overseas freight decreased slightly, and the theoretical import profit in the north was about - 23 yuan/ton [16] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, China's alumina turned to net imports after 9 consecutive months of net exports. In October, 176,000 tons of alumina were exported, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; 189,000 tons were imported, a month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year increase of 2923%. The net import in October was 13,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.438 million tons [16] - **Guangxi Alumina Market**: Around November 25th, two ships of imported alumina will arrive at Guangxi ports, supplementing the southern market supply. The progress of four new alumina projects in Guangxi varies. A 2 - million - ton project has been completed but has no definite production information. Three projects with a total annual capacity of 7.2 million tons are under construction, and two of them have started caustic soda procurement for future commissioning. New production capacity is expected to start commissioning from January to February 2026 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report monitors data such as domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][24][26] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It monitors domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The data shows the changes in alumina production capacity, electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and supply - demand differences from July to November 2025 [31][32][37] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It monitors the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit, ports, and total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the ratio of holding volume to warehouse receipt volume [40][43][45]

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, with prices having theoretical downward space, but excessive speculation is not advisable. If there is a price rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are gradually resuming production, but supply improvement is short - term difficult due to strict mining control. Guinean mines are resuming shipments after the rainy season, with 430.5 million tons of new ore arriving, including 320.6 million tons from Guinea and 92.9 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China dropped slightly [2][12]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined slightly last week. After downstream replenishment, demand decreased. The import window closed. The full - cost of domestic alumina was 2,818 yuan/ton with a real - time profit of 64 yuan/ton. Due to accumulating losses, the number of maintenance increased, with operating capacity decreasing by 1.05 million tons to 95.8 million tons and an operating rate of 83.6% [3][13]. - **Demand**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was stable at 44.233 million tons. Overseas, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 300,000 tons to 29.581 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13th, the national alumina inventory increased by 83,000 tons to 4.301 million tons, due to factors such as efficient shipping and import arrivals [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [15]. 2. Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain This Week - Alumina import profit decreased slightly. The Australian alumina quote was stable at around $320/ton, and the theoretical import profit in the north dropped to about - 31 yuan/ton [16]. - Alumina production cuts were more frequent. The operating capacity decreased by 1.05 million tons this week and 2.75 million tons compared to the maximum in 60 days [16]. - In 2026, the expected new alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.2 million tons (excluding potentially un - launched capacity in 2025), or 13.9 million tons if including it. Southern new capacity is more likely to be launched in the first half of the year [16]. 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventories, shipping volumes, and prices of other raw materials like caustic soda and thermal coal, as well as the production costs of alumina in different provinces [17][24][26]. - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows domestic and imported alumina prices, the ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The supply - demand balance shows the relationship between alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap over time [31][38][39]. - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part presents data on alumina inventories in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, yards, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the SHFE [41][44][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price stabilized last week, but the futures price continued a weak trend. The supply - demand situation shows an oversupply, yet the reduction in supply is limited and slow. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the downward rhythm and amplitude gradually being compressed [13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Supply in Guangxi improved after the rainy season, while production in Shanxi and Henan showed no significant increase. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term. Guinea resources are priced at CIF 71 - 72 dollars/ton, but the procurement intention of downstream alumina enterprises is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. Newly - arrived ore was 415.6 million tons during the period, including 302.1 million tons from Guinea and 97.2 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China remained high at 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price stabilized. The ALD northern comprehensive price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2810 - 2870 yuan/ton, and the domestic weighted index rose by 1.2 yuan/ton to 2871.2 yuan/ton. The import port price remained unchanged. The market price is approaching the cash - flow cost in Shanxi and Henan. The import profit in the north is about 12 yuan/ton. The full cost of domestic alumina is 2872 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 58 yuan/ton. Most enterprises maintained high production, but some suspended roasting due to heavy pollution warnings. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.75 million tons in operation, a decrease of 900,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Both domestic and overseas demand remained unchanged. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.253 million tons, and the overseas was 29.551 million tons, both unchanged from last week [13] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the national alumina inventory was 4.13 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons from last week. The inventory at the receiving end increased, the inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/narrowly fluctuated [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 237,167 tons, an increase of 15,910 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Tendering Result of a Northwest Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprise**: On October 31, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina, with the delivered price at about 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 23 [16] - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of October 31, the Australian alumina price was about 316 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.5 dollars/ton from last week. The cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the import profit was about 12 yuan/ton [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by heavy pollution control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei stopped 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and planned to resume gradually on October 31, with a temporary reduction in shipping volume but no impact on medium - term production [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume of major importing countries, sea - floating inventory, as well as domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][20][29][31][33] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina [36][38][41][44] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, yards/platforms/in - transit, the total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of ores remains weak, and the supply of alumina stays at a high level. The alumina spot price declined last week, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend. Although supply cuts have begun, the situation of oversupply remains unchanged [1][2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 was 596 yuan/ton. Challenges such as continuous rainfall, environmental inspections, and mine resource integration have limited domestic ore supply, increasing dependence on imports. The quote for Guinea resources is around CIF 72 dollars/ton, while downstream enterprises' procurement intention is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. There is no news of Shunda's resumption of production. Newly - arrived ores totaled 348.9 million tons, including 261.3 million tons from Guinea and 97.7 million tons from Australia. The reference price for the Cape ship market from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2870 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The decline in the northern market slowed down, while that in the southern market expanded. The downstream's phased inquiry and purchase scale increased. There were two overseas spot transactions, which impacted the domestic market. The full cost of domestic alumina was 2877 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 76 yuan/ton. The operating capacity increased by 50 million tons to 9765 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.2% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be stable in the next two months, with the current operating capacity at 4425.3 million tons. Overseas, the Nordural electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production by 21.5 million tons due to electrical equipment failure, and the current operating capacity dropped to about 11 million tons. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 2955.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21.5 million tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 406.1 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from last week. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was relatively stable, the inventory at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise, the bagged inventory at the alumina end increased slightly, the port inventory fluctuated temporarily, and the inventory in delivery warehouses, public warehouses, stations, and transit increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221257 tons, a decrease of 5 tons from last week. The futures price of alumina continued to be weak. The price of Guinea ore in the fourth quarter is about 73 dollars, and the cash cost of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton. Some alumina enterprises in these regions have started to incur losses, and supply cuts have begun, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend, and the downward space is being squeezed [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The import profit of alumina has been narrowing. As of October 24, the Australian alumina quote was about 314 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from October 17. The estimated cost of reaching the northern ports in China is about 2865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The import cost is basically the same as the domestic northern quote [15] - On October 24, a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise tendered to purchase 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 20 [15] - On October 23, a northwest aluminum plant tendered to purchase less than 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3015 - 3020 yuan/ton, with a narrow fluctuation of about 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous tender on October 15 [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the price of domestic and imported bauxite, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trend, domestic steam coal price trend, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Multiple charts are presented to show data including domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from June to October 2025 [35][37][42] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/station/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][50]