1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost increase in the mining end drives the rebound of bauxite prices, and the core depends on the persistence of the conflict between the US and Iran. The current bauxite price has reached the cost of small and medium - sized mines in Guinea, and attention should be paid to the price - support policies launched by the Guinean government. - In the short term, the increase in maintenance in the alumina smelting end leads to a tightening of supply, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. If the market sentiment drives up the futures price due to geopolitical risks, short positions can be established at high levels. The long - term oversupply pattern and the increase in warehouse receipt registration will continue to put pressure on the market price. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict. [12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3:00 pm on March 13, the alumina index rose 4.11% to 2962 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 4.5 million lots. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy and shipping costs, driving up the CIF price of bauxite this week. The upward shift of cost support has led to the rebound of alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2640 yuan/ton, at a discount of 322 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 20 yuan/ton. - **Spot Price**: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to rebound. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 15 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Some production capacity maintenance continued, and the premium of the futures market led to an increase in the demand for delivery, resulting in a short - term tightening of the circulating spot. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 5.72 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 26,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, decreased by 13,000 tons, and increased by 45,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 36,800 tons to 374,000 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 430,200 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week. [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to rebound. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 15 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Some production capacity maintenance continued, and the premium of the futures market led to an increase in the demand for delivery, resulting in a short - term tightening of the circulating spot. [20] - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3:00 pm on March 13, the alumina index rose 4.11% to 2962 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 4.5 million lots. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy and shipping costs, driving up the CIF price of bauxite this week. The upward shift of cost support has led to the rebound of alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2640 yuan/ton, at a discount of 322 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 20 yuan/ton. [23] - **Bauxite Price**: For domestic mines, prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. For imported mines, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 62 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australian bauxite increased by 2 US dollars/ton to 57 US dollars/ton. The rebound of bauxite prices this week was mainly due to cost increases. The US - Iran conflict pushed up energy and shipping costs, and the new "labor - management agreement" in Guinea led to a general increase in miners' salaries. If oil prices and shipping costs remain high, miners may have difficulty passing on the new costs to downstream, potentially leading to the shutdown of some mines. In addition, the market传言 that the Guinean government will introduce policies to restrict ore exports to support prices, but the government has not made a clear statement. [28] 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. - **Bauxite Import**: In December 2025, China imported 14.67 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32%. In December 2025, China imported 2.41 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 28.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 29.40%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 37.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In February, China's bauxite inventory increased by 960,000 tons, and the total inventory reached 58.86 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years, with sufficient enterprise ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 70,000 tons, and that in Henan increased by 70,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi. - **Alumina Production**: In February 2026, alumina production was 7.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%. The cumulative production in the first two months of 2026 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.52%. As of March 13, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.785 million tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from last week. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The rebound of alumina spot prices has led to a recovery of alumina plant profits. According to the alumina spot price on March 13, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic mines, the current production profit can reach 120 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong are 170 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, using overseas ores in Shanxi results in a loss of 30 yuan/ton, while in Henan, it results in a profit of 60 yuan/ton. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. The opening of the import window in the previous period drove the continuation of monthly net imports. Among them, the import volume decreased from 232,000 tons in the previous month to 228,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 168,000 tons to 210,000 tons. The total net export in the first twelve months of 2025 was 1.35 million tons. As of March 13, the weekly FOB price in Australia increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 304 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 36 yuan/ton. The stronger rebound of domestic alumina prices led to a slight opening of the import window. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In February 2026, overseas alumina production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%. The cumulative production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. [32][34][36][38][41][43][44][47][49][51][53] 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.71%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 7.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25%. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In February 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.13% to 97.08% in February. [58][61] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2026 (estimated), showing data on alumina supply and demand differences, total demand, total supply, net exports, exports, imports, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month. [64] 3.6 Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 5.72 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 26,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, decreased by 13,000 tons, and increased by 45,000 tons respectively. - **Alumina Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 36,800 tons to 374,000 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 430,200 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week. [69][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend of ore prices has slowed, and supply disruptions in the alumina market continue. The industry is still in a downward cycle, and while there is no strong basis for a significant price rebound, the downside for spot prices is also limited [1][2][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 grade ore had a delivered - tax - included price of 640 yuan, and Henan 58/5 bauxite was at 610 yuan/ton. Due to the Spring Festival, most mines were in a shutdown period, and no substantial transactions occurred in the domestic bauxite market. The average price of Guinean 45/3 ore was 60.5 US dollars/dry ton. Mines and traders intended to stabilize prices. After a slight increase in freight, the FOB price in Guinea fell below the cost of some mines. 5.396 million tons of new ore arrived, including 4.651 million tons from Guinea and 0.745 million tons from Australia. The reference price for Cape ships from Guinea to China was 23.5 US dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: Alumina spot prices rose slightly last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2610 - 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2659.9 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2950 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. A large - scale northern alumina enterprise had a policy - related shutdown, leading to a quantitative accumulation of tight order execution. Overseas markets were stable, with no news of spot transactions. As of the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2586 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 77 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large northern alumina enterprise were completely shut down due to policy, and two alumina enterprises in Shanxi were in a phased maintenance state and had not resumed operation. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 93.5 million tons in operation, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 81.6% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the new production capacity of the second phase of Huomeihongjun Zhalv reached 960,000 tons, but the commissioning progress was slow. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.503 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the first phase of the Indonesia Xinfa Juwang electrolytic aluminum plant was commissioned, with a current operating capacity of 250,000 tons. The expansion project of the Balco electrolytic aluminum plant under India's Vedanta was slowly being commissioned, with a current operating capacity of about 780,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons. The Angolan Huatong Industrial electrolytic aluminum project started on January 15, 2026, with a current operating capacity of 32,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 300.1 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week [14] - **Inventory**: As of February 26, the national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the Spring Festival. The inventory change narrowed before and after the Spring Festival. Railway transportation was good during and after the festival, and the volume of some traders' railway transportation increased. The volume on the railway platforms around alumina factories generally increased. Road transportation recovered earlier during the festival. The on - the - way road transportation volume decreased during the festival and then rebounded rapidly. The number of queuing vehicles for pick - up at some alumina factories increased. The static inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased significantly due to supply mismatch, transportation capacity mismatch, and the stable operation of the electrolytic aluminum industry during the Spring Festival. The inventory changes of alumina enterprises showed greater differentiation. The inventory of small and medium - sized alumina enterprises mainly relying on road transportation increased relatively, the inventory of production - reducing enterprises decreased significantly, and the inventory of alumina enterprises mainly relying on railway transportation increased or decreased differently. The inventory in delivery warehouses and ports increased significantly [15] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 310,658 tons, an increase of 47,927 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price was weak. Supply disruptions from large northern factories supported the price. Considering the current supply and demand, the surplus margin was slightly alleviated, and the downward trend of costs was mitigated [16] 3.2 Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Increased Intention for Spot Premium Trading**: Recently, spot bargaining mainly by trade participants has become more active, including arbitrage spot bargaining between futures - cash traders and alumina enterprises, as well as spot bargaining by industrial traders for short - term procurement to fulfill long - term terminal orders. Overall, buyers are worried about overpaying at a fixed price, while sellers have a stronger intention to sell at a significant premium. Most transactions are settled at a discount to the average price of institutional quotes, and the discount range has narrowed significantly. Currently, both the actual transaction price and the mainstream evaluation price are at a premium compared to institutional quotes. The combination of market - making transactions and sporadic transactions for rigid demand has increased the expectation of price increase [17] - **Obvious Node Characteristics, Spot Prices Oscillating Upward**: Many electrolytic aluminum enterprises said that transportation capacity was basically stable during the festival, and their alumina inventory remained stable or decreased slightly, so there was no need to enter the spot market to stir up market sentiment. Xinjiang aluminum plants will conduct a regular tender for procurement tomorrow (the 25th). According to information from multiple traditional suppliers, the current quotes are cautious and are mainly at a premium compared to institutional quotes [17] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [18][20][22] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes charts on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [33][36][43] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: There are charts on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/platform/on - the - way inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints - Ore prices remain stable, and alumina supply is being reduced. The alumina industry is still in a downward cycle, and prices do not have a basis for a significant rebound for now [1][14] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The delivered tax - included price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi was 640 yuan, and in Henan, the delivered price of 58/5 bauxite was 610 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, most mines entered the shutdown cycle, and market prices remained relatively stable but were still in a downward cycle. The quoted price of Guinea ore (45/3) by ALD was maintained at 61 - 62 US dollars/dry ton, and downstream users' intention to receive goods was gradually approaching CIF 55 US dollars/ton. After a slight increase in freight rates, the FOB price in Guinea has fallen below the cost of some mines. Newly arrived ore during the period was 423.2 million tons, including 353.4 million tons of Guinea resources and 69.7 million tons of Australian resources. The market reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China was 26.5 US dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: Alumina spot prices remained stable last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was between 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2610.4 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The port quotation of imported alumina was between 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Market prices were affected by market rumors and fluctuated relatively sharply. In terms of imports, 30,000 tons of alumina in Western Australia was sold at FOB 310 US dollars/ton. As of the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2583 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 78 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, domestic maintenance - style production cuts were frequent, the operating capacity fluctuated flexibly, and the overall supply situation had not changed fundamentally. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 82.3% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, the second - phase new project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Zha Aluminum continued to be put into production, and the industry's operating capacity increased slowly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.473 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. Overseas, new projects in Indonesia were being put into production successively. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 30.03 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [12] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (February 5), the national alumina inventory was 5.193 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to slow down due to the supply - demand difference between the north and the south, with a slight decrease in inventory of a few aluminum plants and limited increase due to saturated storage capacity of some aluminum plants. The bagged inventory of alumina enterprises continued to rise; new ships arrived at northern ports, causing an instantaneous increase in inventory. The increase in delivery warehouses was obvious, and the in - transit inventory began to shrink [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 218,000 tons, an increase of 46,896 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price rebounded. Supply disruptions from large northern manufacturers supported the price. Considering the current supply - demand situation, the surplus has slightly eased, but the cost continues to decline. Overall, the industry is still in a downward cycle, and prices do not have a basis for a significant rebound [14] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **January Cost Survey**: Based on preliminary research and calculations by ALD, in January, the fully - cost - profitable production capacity of the alumina industry was 34 million tons, accounting for 35.1% of the total operating capacity that month, and the loss - making production capacity was 62.85 million tons, accounting for 64.9%. The cash - cost - profitable production capacity was 73.8 million tons, accounting for 76.2% of the total operating capacity that month, and the loss - making production capacity was 23.05 million tons, accounting for 23.8%. Theoretically, the entire industry had a full - cost loss of 447 million yuan and a positive cash flow of 853 million yuan in January [15] - **Theoretical Import Loss in the North**: On January 30, the Australian alumina quotation was around 306 US dollars/ton, the same as the price on January 23. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2667 yuan/ton, and theoretically, the northern import loss was about 57 yuan/ton [15] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report includes charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volumes of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and domestic alumina production costs in various provinces [16][18][25] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report includes charts on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It also provides data on the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina from October 2025 to February 2026 [34][36][40] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes charts on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of the holding volume to the warehouse receipt volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [43][46][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of Guinea ore has declined while the supply of alumina remains high. Although the supply of domestic ore is tight, it cannot reverse the downward price trend. The alumina spot price has decreased, and the industry is in an oversupply situation with accumulating inventory. In the long - term, the price still faces downward pressure, but there may be a short - term bottom - up rebound due to policy expectations [2][3][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, the domestic ore price remained stable, with the delivered tax - included price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi at 665 yuan. The supply of domestic ore is tight, supporting the price but unable to reverse the downward trend. The ALD Guinea ore index price dropped from 66 dollars/tonne to 61.5 dollars/tonne. Newly arrived ore during the period was 4.482 million tons, including 3.595 million tons from Guinea and 0.887 million tons from Australia. The reference price for Cape ships from Guinea to China is 22 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The alumina spot price declined last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2616.8 yuan/ton, a 10.8 - yuan decrease. The port price of imported alumina remained unchanged at 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton. Aluminum plant tender transactions continued to decline, and about 70,000 tons of expired warehouse receipts were cancelled at the Xinjiang delivery warehouse. In terms of imports, there were 3 overseas transactions. Due to tightened ore supply policies, Indonesia's Nanshan Bintan reduced production on 2 production lines starting on the evening of January 15th. As of the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2608 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 68 yuan/ton. The national alumina supply was relatively stable, with a built - in capacity of 114.62 million tons, an operating capacity of 96.55 million tons (an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous week), and an operating rate of 84.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the second - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Zhala Aluminum is still in the commissioning stage. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 44.463 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. Overseas, the KAI electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expanding, with an operating capacity of about 135,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 29.888 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons [13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (January 22nd), the national alumina inventory was 5.059 million tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to increase but at a slower pace; the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises increased slightly; the port inventory fluctuated slightly. The phased contradiction between shipping and unloading at both ends continued, and the inventory at delivery warehouses and in transit increased significantly [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 138,697 tons, a decrease of 32,082 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price oscillated. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises are still not determined to cut production, the industry remains in an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, the previous price was over - depressed. With the expected policy introduction, the price rebounded from the bottom, but the industry is still in an oversupply cycle, and the price still faces long - term downward pressure [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Theoretical Import Loss in the North**: As of Friday (January 23rd), the Australian alumina quotation was about 306 dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar decrease from January 16th. According to real - time data, the cost of reaching the northern ports in China is about 2667 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 57 yuan/ton in the north [16] - **Price - Driven Procurement**: Affected by the downward alumina spot price, large downstream enterprises have increased their spot alumina procurement. Since the beginning of the month, several aluminum plants in the northwest region have purchased at least 80,000 tons of alumina spot, with the delivered price to the plant at 2760 - 2800 yuan/ton; some orders are based on the institutional guidance price [16] - **Net Import in December**: In December 2025, China exported 206,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 22.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.3%; the cumulative export from January to December was 2.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.8%. In December, the import of alumina was 228,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.7%; the cumulative import from January to December was 1.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%. The net import in December was 22,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to December reached 1.35 million tons [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost - The report provides charts on domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic steam coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces, with data sources from Shanghai Steel Union and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute [17][19][21] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and domestic weekly alumina supply - demand balance. The data sources are Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. It also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap from September 2025 to January 2026 [34][39][41] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides charts on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts, with data sources from Aladdin, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute [44][47][50]

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Volatility [1] Core Views - The price of bauxite in Guinea is weak, and the supply of domestic alumina remains stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, and after a phased rebound, the market is expected to return to a weak pattern. [1][2][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, domestic ore prices were stable. The delivered ex - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi dropped to 665 yuan. There was less market - flowing ore and tight spot supply. A new CIF transaction of low - grade bauxite from Guinea was recorded at 60 US dollars per dry ton, equivalent to 63 - 64 US dollars per dry ton for 45/3 standard grade. Newly arrived ore was 4.599 million tons, including 3.846 million tons from Guinea and 0.553 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China was 20 US dollars per ton. [2][12] - **Alumina**: Last week, the spot price of alumina declined. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2600 - 2640 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2627.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34.1 yuan per ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The alumina futures price fell from a high. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2642 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 61 yuan per ton. The total supply remained stable with both maintenance and restarts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.25 million tons in operation, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 84%. [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhala Aluminum continued to be put into production, and the company's overall operating capacity increased to 900,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum project of Angola Huatong Industrial Co., Ltd. was put into production on January 15th, with a total built - in capacity of 120,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons. [13] - **Inventory**: As of January 15th, the national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week. The growth of alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down, and the inventory in alumina enterprises increased slightly, mainly in medium - sized alumina enterprises without industrial chain support. Port inventory increased due to unloaded and unshipped vessels. Near the Spring Festival, the operation level and inventory reserve willingness of non - aluminum industries decreased, and the fine alumina inventory outside the scope was accumulating. [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 176,802 tons, an increase of 17,160 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price fluctuated. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises were still not determined to cut production, the industry remained in an oversupply situation, and inventory continued to accumulate. [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Alumina Theoretical Northern Import Loss**: As of January 16th, the Australian alumina quotation was about 308 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from January 9th. The theoretical cost of reaching the northern ports of China was about 2682 yuan per ton, and the theoretical northern import loss was about 62 yuan per ton. [16] - **Indonesian Bauxite Policy and Alumina Market Dynamics**: From 2024 - 2025, the RKAB quota of Indonesian bauxite gradually tightened, from 15.87 million tons in 2024 to 12 - 15 million tons in 2025. In contrast, the local alumina production capacity in Indonesia increased to 6 million tons, with an increase of 3 million tons in 2025 alone. [16] - **Alumina Market Operation and Trading**: Recently, the alumina operation level remained above 95 million tons, but the restart and maintenance of roasting furnaces in different enterprises were still going on. At the beginning of this week, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi resumed full - production after maintenance, while a roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Henan started maintenance on January 13th and was expected to resume production on January 18th, with limited overall output fluctuations. [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and domestic alumina production costs in each province, with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [17][19][24] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina, with data sources from Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [31][33][35] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with data sources mainly from Aladdin, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [42][47][50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of domestic bauxite has declined, while the supply of alumina has changed little. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, with prices expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [1][2][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, the price of domestic bauxite dropped significantly. The delivered - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi decreased to 665 yuan/ton, a reduction of 33 yuan/ton. The import price of 45/3 grade bauxite from Guinea was 65.5 dollars/dry ton. Shunda Mining plans to ship 15 vessels in January and produce 25 - 30 million tons this year. Sinohydro plans to produce 15 million tons this year. During the period, 3.324 million tons of new ore arrived, including 2.242 million tons from Guinea and 1.081 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 21 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was 2600 - 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2661.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.8 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. There were 6 public alumina transactions overseas this week, totaling 180,000 tons, and 3 vessels will be shipped to China later. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2657 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 57 yuan/ton. The national alumina supply was relatively stable, with a built - in capacity of 114.62 million tons, an operating capacity of 95.85 million tons (an increase of 150,000 tons compared to before the festival), and an operating rate of 83.6%. In terms of demand, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhalv is being gradually put into production, and the overall operating capacity of the enterprise has increased to 870,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.413 million tons, a weekly increase of 5,000 tons. There is no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 29.781 million tons, unchanged from last week [3][13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (January 8th), the national alumina inventory was 4.935 million tons, an increase of 84,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory increase of electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down. The inventory of alumina enterprises continued to increase slightly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/delivery warehouses also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 159,642 tons, an increase of 1,824 tons compared to last week. The alumina futures price oscillated. The alumina industry remains in an oversupply situation, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, the price previously over - declined. With the introduction of policy expectations, the price rebounded from the bottom, but the industry is still in an oversupply cycle, and the market is expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Northern Import Loss**: As of Friday (January 9th), the price of Australian alumina was about 310 dollars/ton, a 3 - dollar increase compared to December 31st. The estimated cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2736 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan increase compared to the previous period. The theoretical northern import loss was about 96 yuan/ton. However, due to the rise of the alumina futures market, some merchants turned to overseas to purchase delivery products to lock in profits [16] - **Market Contradictions**: The structural and liquidity contradictions in the alumina market are significantly deviated. Some aluminum plants with high inventories do not purchase on the spot market, and some normal - tendering aluminum plants have stopped tendering temporarily and are watching. Spot - purchasing aluminum plants follow the market or offer firm prices with significant discounts. In recent industrial transactions, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 2570 yuan/ton, with a discount of about 30 yuan/ton compared to the website quotation and a discount of about 165 yuan/ton compared to the 2602 contract [16] - **Futures Rise and Spot Cooling**: The alumina futures price continued to rise, but the spot market trading atmosphere cooled down compared to before the New Year's Day holiday. The market trading volume was less than 10,000 tons. Traders had previously sold a large amount of spot to futures - cash merchants, and the latter's purchasing volume was approaching the upper limit. Since December 26th, 2025, futures - cash merchants have purchased about 250,000 - 300,000 tons of spot, including about 40% of delivery products and 60% of non - standard products. Currently, futures - cash merchants mainly trade at the 2602 contract price, with quotes in Shandong at 20 yuan/ton lower than the 02 contract, in Henan at 50 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract, and in Shanxi at 30 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract [17] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in each province [18][20][26] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It also provides a table of the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina from August 2025 to January 2026 [33][40][43] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report includes data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, and the total social inventory of alumina, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [46][50][55]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - **Aluminum Price**: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - **Futures Data**: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - **Price Differences** - **Spot - Futures Price Differences**: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest** - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Bauxite**: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - **Processed Products** - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing** - **Output**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - **开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - **Import and Export** - **Import**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Guinea's bauxite price has slightly decreased, leading to a minor improvement in alumina supply. However, the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and the price has theoretical downward space. It is not advisable to over - speculate, and a bearish approach can be considered if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite were 700 yuan/ton, 658 yuan/ton, and 596 yuan/ton respectively. Although some mines in Shanxi and Henan resumed production after the rainy season, the increase was limited. Due to the heating season and strict mining regulations, domestic ore supply is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of Guinea's bauxite dropped by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 70 - 71 US dollars/dry ton, and its shipping volume is recovering. Newly arrived ore was 398.3 million tons, including 264.7 million tons from Guinea and 127.8 million tons from Australia. The market reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China rose slightly to 24.5 US dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased slightly last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2833.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton from last week. The port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. After a round of replenishment, downstream demand decreased. The import window was closed. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2818 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 58 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.1 million tons in operation, an increase of 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.6% [13] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 44.233 million tons, unchanged from the previous period. Overseas, Indonesia's Xinfa Juwang Aluminum Industry was in stable production, with an operating capacity of about 80,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.596 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of November 20th, the national alumina inventory was 4.344 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from last week. Due to factors such as high - efficiency shipping and environmental protection restrictions, inventory changes varied in different sectors [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 250,910 tons, a decrease of 2,744 tons from last week. The alumina futures price continued to be weak. With the decline in Guinea's bauxite price and the increase in loss - making production capacity, the market remained in oversupply [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Overseas Freight and Import Profit**: On November 21st, the price of Australian alumina was about 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged from November 14th. The cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. Overseas freight decreased slightly, and the theoretical import profit in the north was about - 23 yuan/ton [16] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, China's alumina turned to net imports after 9 consecutive months of net exports. In October, 176,000 tons of alumina were exported, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; 189,000 tons were imported, a month - on - month increase of 215% and a year - on - year increase of 2923%. The net import in October was 13,000 tons, and the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.438 million tons [16] - **Guangxi Alumina Market**: Around November 25th, two ships of imported alumina will arrive at Guangxi ports, supplementing the southern market supply. The progress of four new alumina projects in Guangxi varies. A 2 - million - ton project has been completed but has no definite production information. Three projects with a total annual capacity of 7.2 million tons are under construction, and two of them have started caustic soda procurement for future commissioning. New production capacity is expected to start commissioning from January to February 2026 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report monitors data such as domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][24][26] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It monitors domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The data shows the changes in alumina production capacity, electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and supply - demand differences from July to November 2025 [31][32][37] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It monitors the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/stations/in - transit, ports, and total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the ratio of holding volume to warehouse receipt volume [40][43][45]

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, with prices having theoretical downward space, but excessive speculation is not advisable. If there is a price rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are gradually resuming production, but supply improvement is short - term difficult due to strict mining control. Guinean mines are resuming shipments after the rainy season, with 430.5 million tons of new ore arriving, including 320.6 million tons from Guinea and 92.9 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China dropped slightly [2][12]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined slightly last week. After downstream replenishment, demand decreased. The import window closed. The full - cost of domestic alumina was 2,818 yuan/ton with a real - time profit of 64 yuan/ton. Due to accumulating losses, the number of maintenance increased, with operating capacity decreasing by 1.05 million tons to 95.8 million tons and an operating rate of 83.6% [3][13]. - **Demand**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was stable at 44.233 million tons. Overseas, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 300,000 tons to 29.581 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13th, the national alumina inventory increased by 83,000 tons to 4.301 million tons, due to factors such as efficient shipping and import arrivals [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [15]. 2. Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain This Week - Alumina import profit decreased slightly. The Australian alumina quote was stable at around $320/ton, and the theoretical import profit in the north dropped to about - 31 yuan/ton [16]. - Alumina production cuts were more frequent. The operating capacity decreased by 1.05 million tons this week and 2.75 million tons compared to the maximum in 60 days [16]. - In 2026, the expected new alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.2 million tons (excluding potentially un - launched capacity in 2025), or 13.9 million tons if including it. Southern new capacity is more likely to be launched in the first half of the year [16]. 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventories, shipping volumes, and prices of other raw materials like caustic soda and thermal coal, as well as the production costs of alumina in different provinces [17][24][26]. - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows domestic and imported alumina prices, the ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The supply - demand balance shows the relationship between alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and the supply - demand gap over time [31][38][39]. - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part presents data on alumina inventories in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, yards, ports, and the total social inventory, as well as the warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the SHFE [41][44][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price stabilized last week, but the futures price continued a weak trend. The supply - demand situation shows an oversupply, yet the reduction in supply is limited and slow. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the downward rhythm and amplitude gradually being compressed [13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Supply in Guangxi improved after the rainy season, while production in Shanxi and Henan showed no significant increase. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term. Guinea resources are priced at CIF 71 - 72 dollars/ton, but the procurement intention of downstream alumina enterprises is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. Newly - arrived ore was 415.6 million tons during the period, including 302.1 million tons from Guinea and 97.2 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China remained high at 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price stabilized. The ALD northern comprehensive price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2810 - 2870 yuan/ton, and the domestic weighted index rose by 1.2 yuan/ton to 2871.2 yuan/ton. The import port price remained unchanged. The market price is approaching the cash - flow cost in Shanxi and Henan. The import profit in the north is about 12 yuan/ton. The full cost of domestic alumina is 2872 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 58 yuan/ton. Most enterprises maintained high production, but some suspended roasting due to heavy pollution warnings. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.75 million tons in operation, a decrease of 900,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Both domestic and overseas demand remained unchanged. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.253 million tons, and the overseas was 29.551 million tons, both unchanged from last week [13] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the national alumina inventory was 4.13 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons from last week. The inventory at the receiving end increased, the inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/narrowly fluctuated [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 237,167 tons, an increase of 15,910 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Tendering Result of a Northwest Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprise**: On October 31, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina, with the delivered price at about 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 23 [16] - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of October 31, the Australian alumina price was about 316 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.5 dollars/ton from last week. The cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the import profit was about 12 yuan/ton [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by heavy pollution control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei stopped 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and planned to resume gradually on October 31, with a temporary reduction in shipping volume but no impact on medium - term production [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume of major importing countries, sea - floating inventory, as well as domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][20][29][31][33] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina [36][38][41][44] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, yards/platforms/in - transit, the total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]