1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Pay attention to the callback pressure as the downstream demand is triggering a negative feedback, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed [3][4]. - Alumina: The valuation should not be set high as the "anti - involution" lacks industry details, and the market is in a new inventory accumulation cycle [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest 3.1.1 Term Spreads - The term structure of Shanghai aluminum has changed to a C - structure, and the average SMM A00 aluminum premium has decreased from 100 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed [10]. 3.1.2 Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts have narrowed [11]. 3.1.3 Open Interest and Volume - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract remained stable, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume rebounded during the week [18]. 3.1.4 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.2.1 Bauxite - Port inventory and inventory days decreased. As of July 4, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 650,000 tons week - on - week. In May, the port inventory and inventory days showed a continuous accumulation trend [24]. - In May, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises rebounded, with an increase of 4.487 million tons month - on - month [29]. - Port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded. As of July 4, the port shipments from Guinea and Australia increased by 62,900 tons and 150,300 tons respectively week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory from Guinea and Australia increased by 9.04 million tons and 4.678 million tons respectively week - on - week [30]. - Out - port volume decreased, and in - port volume increased slightly. As of June 27, the out - port volume from Australia and Guinea decreased, while the SMM - caliber bauxite in - port volume increased by 698,300 tons week - on - week [34]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The national total inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 23,000 tons week - on - week. The plant - level inventory remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreased [43]. - The Aladdin full - caliber inventory continued to accumulate. As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week [48]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed, but the amplitude is not large. As of July 3, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 6,000 tons to 466,000 tons [49]. 3.2.4 Aluminum Rod - Spot inventory and plant - level inventory accumulated, and the out - port volume decreased [55]. 3.2.5 Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil - The raw material and finished product inventory ratios showed differentiation. In May, the SMM - caliber finished product inventory ratio of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while that of plate - foil increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate 3.3.1 Bauxite - In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed differentiation. The overall domestic bauxite supply contracted, and the imported bauxite supply was an important increment. The production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased significantly [63][64]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental supply - loose pattern remained unchanged. As of July 4, the national operating total capacity was 90.8 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.748 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May, the operating capacity continued to be high, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. As of July 3, the weekly output was 844,200 tons, a decrease of 70 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream Processing - The output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and plate - foil decreased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 730 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 7,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of plate - foil decreased by 800 tons week - on - week [77]. - The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises continued to decline, with a 0.1% decrease to 58.7% week - on - week. The operating rates of various sectors were generally under pressure [78]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.4.1 Alumina - The profit decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while that in Guangxi was better [84]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations due to the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [94]. 3.4.3 Downstream Processing - The processing fee of aluminum rods increased slightly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand 3.5.1 Import Profits and Losses - The import profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum were basically stable [103]. 3.5.2 Export - From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed materials decreased. In May, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons [105]. - The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation, and the export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [108]. 3.5.3 Consumption Absolute Quantity - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 三季度几内亚矿石长单价格敲定， 氧化铝现货价格下跌 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西河南受安全生产监管加强 及环保督察力度提升等多重因素影响，两省铝土矿开采活动受到 一定限制，部分矿山已暂停生产。在供给量有所减少的背景下， 晋豫两地铝土矿价格维持坚挺。南方整体矿石供应表现较为稳 定，大部分企业新一轮补库完成，矿石资源储备充足。进口方面， 主流矿企公布三季度铝土矿长协报价，价格区间维持 74-75 美元 /干吨水平。目前矿商对 7 月后资源报价均于 CIF 77 美元/吨之 上。下游客户对当前价格认可度依然较低，目前采购意向多集中 于 CIF 70 美元/吨附近。随着博法矿区港口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is oscillating strongly with low inventory unchanged, and attention should be paid to the potential transmission of downstream negative feedback. The key contradiction lies in the total installation volume and production scheduling rhythm in the second half of the year. The confirmation of the demand inflection point still needs to wait for the confirmation of the inventory inflection point and changes in export shipping capacity. The downstream processing profit is at a low level in the same period over the years, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback and the resilience of downstream buying interest [3]. - Alumina has low inventory and low warehouse receipts, and the futures price is oscillating slightly higher. The resumption of production continues, but the dilemma of low inventory and few warehouse receipts remains unchanged. The valuation at the current price has become a key point affecting the long - short game. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of resumption of production to inventory and changes in port inventory [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term B structure of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has narrowed. The average price of SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from 180 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from 50 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month has changed from 248 yuan/ton to 119 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina has changed from 258 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum has widened [10]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has also increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has remained stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded this week [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level [18]. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days have increased. As of June 27, the weekly imported bauxite port inventory has increased by 1760000 tons compared with last week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and inventory days in China according to the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. The port shipping volume has declined, and the floating inventory has shown differentiation. The alumina enterprises' bauxite inventory has rebounded in May [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The national total inventory has increased. As of June 26, the national alumina inventory has increased by 13000 tons to 3137000 tons compared with last week. The inventory in the alumina plant, electrolytic aluminum plant, and port has increased, while the inventory in the yard/platform/in - transit has decreased slightly [50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation needs further confirmation. As of June 26, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory has increased by 10000 tons to 460000 tons [51]. - **Aluminum Rod**: Spot inventory and in - plant inventory have increased, and the shipping volume has declined [56]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have shown differentiation. As of May, the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has declined slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio has also declined slightly. The finished product inventory of SMM aluminum plate - foil has rebounded slightly, and the raw material inventory has increased [59]. Production: Output, Production Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply has shown a recovery trend, but the domestic bauxite output has declined in May. The supply of imported bauxite is still an important increment. The production in different provinces has shown differentiation [63]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate has remained stable, but the loose fundamental pattern has not been reversed. As of June 27, the total operating production capacity of national alumina is 90000000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1400000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1729000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons compared with last week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating production capacity remains at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of May, the operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly. As of June 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to the steel union caliber is 844900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with last week [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate - foil has continued to decline slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods and aluminum rods has declined, and the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises has continued to decline, with a strong off - season atmosphere [75][77][78]. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Alumina**: The smelter still has profits, and attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance and resumption of production. This week, the alumina profit has declined slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit of 304.9 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined, while the profit in Guangxi is better [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit is still at a high level, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty [92][95]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has been significantly reduced, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [96]. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have rebounded [104]. - **Export**: From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed aluminum products has declined. In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has continued to rebound, with a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons [106]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area has rebounded, and the automobile production has increased month - on - month [115].

周度报告—氧化铝 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3035243 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0014605 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 主力合约行情走势图（氧化铝） [Table_Summary] ★几内亚 A 矿区暂未恢复，氧化铝供给小幅增加 有 色 金 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。环保督察组进驻山西地区，不 过对矿山产出影响有限，山西目前开采的矿山仍在继续开采，没 有复产的矿山则继续停产整顿，供应端没有太多变化。进口方面， AXIS 矿区顺达、中水电及高顶三家矿山仍处于停产状态，企业 在与政府接触，但没有取得进展。矿石散货成交明显增加主流成 交价格维持在 74-75 美元/干吨。到货方面，期内新到矿石 367.1 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 269.1 万吨，澳大利亚资源 8 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿石散单价格反弹， 氧化铝现货价格上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 | 年 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿石散单价格反弹，氧化铝现货价格上涨 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。河南部分产区矿山暂停导致局 部区域矿石供应呈现紧张趋势，山西目前开采的矿山仍在继续开 采，没有复产的矿山则继续停产整顿，供应端没有太多变化。进 口方面，几内亚军政府将 AXIS 矿区划为军事储备区，涉及的顺 达、中水电及高顶三家矿山均处于停产状态。矿石散货成交明显 增加主流成交价格上涨至 74-75 美元/干吨。到货方面，期内新 到矿石 457.3 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 380.3 万吨，澳大利亚 资源 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 国内氧化铝新投现变数 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 月 | 年 | 11 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿价进一步降低，国内氧化铝新投现变数 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次 入驻山西地区，节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资 源整合及品位下降等影响，国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态， 复产矿山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面，大型 矿企对二季度长协价格做出修订，几内亚主流矿 45/3 价格下调 至 75 美元/干吨（CIF）。部分低品质散弹矿石报价到 72 美元/ 干吨。国内用户对该价格仍较排斥，远期价格有意压至 CIF 68-70 美元/吨。GIC 码头恢复作业，先前矿山积压库存开始陆续发出。 GIC 方面表示纠纷问题会 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 全国氧化铝厂陷入大面积亏损， 过剩压力稍有缓和 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 4 | 月 | 6 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格下调，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 730 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨（较上周下调 10 元）, 贵 州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。矿山资源整合政 策持续深化，部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全等合规要求暂处 停产状态，在产矿山开工率较春节前略低，短期铝土矿价格仍处 于下行区间。进口方面，大型铝土矿企业长单陆续签订，整体价 格区间集中在 88-95 美元/干吨。零单方面，近段时间市场传出 85-86 美元/干吨的成交。几内亚矿山开采成本多集中于 30-45 美 元/吨，个别高成本矿山开采成本在 50 美元/吨之上，当前 CIF 价格距离矿山成本仍有一定空间。到货方面，期内新到矿石 342.4 万吨，其中新到几内亚资源 247.2 万吨， ...