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新东方─S(09901.HK):教育主业盈利能力回暖 股东回报提升
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-08 02:31
Group 1 - New Oriental reported FY2025 Q4 net revenue of $1.24 billion, a 9.4% increase, with an operating loss of $8.67 million and a net profit of $7.1 million, down 73.7% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $81.68 million, up 116.3%, and Non-GAAP net profit was $98.08 million, up 59.4% [1] - For FY2026 Q1, net revenue is expected to be between $1.464 billion and $1.507 billion, representing a growth of 2% to 5% [1] Group 2 - The core education business showed a recovery in profitability, with a gross margin of 54.2%, up 2 percentage points, while the operating profit margin was -0.7%, down 2 percentage points due to a one-time goodwill impairment of approximately $60 million [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 6.6%, up 3 percentage points, and excluding Oriental Selection, the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 6.5%, up 4.1 percentage points [2] - The company is expected to experience a stable growth phase in its education business, with a three-year shareholder return plan to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [2] Group 3 - As a leading player in the industry, New Oriental's advantages are highlighted in the current supply-demand landscape, despite challenges in overseas-related and cultural tourism businesses [3] - The company forecasts net profits of $490 million, $540 million, and $600 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of $550 million, $600 million, and $660 million [3] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" due to the anticipated steady growth of the education business alongside network capacity expansion [3]
新东方-S(09901):增速进入平稳期,宣布三年股东回报计划
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 15:31
Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" with an expected price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, with the education segment revenue reaching $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, exceeding guidance [2]. - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, estimating a total return of no less than $186 million for FY2025 [4]. - The education business is expected to experience a slowdown in revenue growth due to economic conditions and increased competition, with Q1 FY2026 international exam preparation and study abroad consulting revenues projected to decline by 5% year-over-year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.243 billion, with a 9.4% year-over-year increase. The education business revenue was $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, surpassing guidance. Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 6.5%, a 4.1 percentage point increase year-over-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The education business revenue growth is expected to slow in FY2026 due to economic and international factors. Q1 FY2026 international business is projected to decline by 5%, while K9 business is expected to grow by 15-16% [3]. - Profit pressure is anticipated from the slowdown in education revenue, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to positively impact profit margins by 1-1.5 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $5.276 billion, $5.719 billion, and $6.228 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 8% [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are $560 million, $598 million, and $641 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with adjusted PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [5].