证券研究报告·海外公司点评·支援服务(HS) 新东方-S（09901.HK） FY26Q1 财报点评：收入超预期增长，股东 回报可观 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A FY2025A | | FY2026E FY2027E | | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 4,314 | 4,900 | 5,388 | 5,927 | 6,343 | | 同比（%） | 43.89 | 13.60 | 9.96 | 10.00 | 7.02 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 309.59 | 371.72 | 491.85 | 542.98 | 591.14 | | 同比（%） | 74.57 | 20.07 | 32.32 | 10.40 | 8.87 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万美元） | 464.00 | 517.10 | 576.11 | 627.23 | 685.40 | | 同比（%） | 79.15 | 11.44 | 11.41 | 8.87 | 9.2 ...

机构：国信证券 研究员：曾光/张鲁 FY2026Q2 收入预计提速，全年维持稳健展望，并更新股东回报计划。展望FY2026Q2，公司预计净营 收同增9%-12%。同时维持FY2026 全年净营收同比增长5%-10%的指引。股东回报方面，宣布一项为期 三年的股东回报计划，拟将前一财年归母净利润不低于50%用于回馈股东。为实施2026 财年的回报计 划，董事会已批准派发总额约1.9 亿美元的现金股息。以及一项未来12 个月内最多3 亿美元的股份回购 计划，金额合计达2025 财年归母净利的132%。 以最新市值计算，公司此轮股东回报计划对应股东回报率约为5.1%。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、政策趋严、业务渗透率提升缓慢、股东减持等。 投资建议：综合公司清晰的品质提升战略、较积极的业绩展望、具有吸引力的股东回报，我们维持 其"优于大市"评级。我们认为公司"提升能力与品质"的核心战略与行业由"疫后供给缺失"转向"质量优 先"的趋势相符，成效体现在经调经营利润率稳步修复与K12 业务学生留存率提升上，为未来收入增长 蓄力。我们维持公司2026-2028 财年经调整净利润4.3/4.8/5.3 亿美元的预测，对应PE 分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [2] Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants reaching 530,000, an increase of 10% [2] - The number of active paid users for learning machines increased by 40% to 452,000, indicating strong brand appeal [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts [3] - Study abroad and consultation revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [3] - University business revenue rose by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [3] Future Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, the company expects revenue growth of 9%-12% and maintains a full-year revenue growth guidance of 5%-10% [4] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [4] - The board has approved a cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the previous fiscal year's net profit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business growth exceeding management guidance, but overall profitability impacted by a one-time goodwill impairment in the kindergarten segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025Q4 revenue reached $1.243 billion, a 9.4% increase year-over-year, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, growing 18.7%, surpassing the previous guidance of 10-13% [1] - Operating profit showed a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business; excluding this, the non-GAAP operating profit margin for non-selective business was 6.5%, up 4.1 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, down 73.7%; however, excluding one-time factors, the non-GAAP net profit was $98.08 million, reflecting a 59.4% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Growth - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, maintaining rapid growth; high school training revenue increased by 24%, supported by resilient supply-demand dynamics [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenues grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending pressure and tightening study abroad environments in some countries remain challenges [2] - E-commerce revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year due to the divestment of "With Huixing," though the quarter-on-quarter decline has improved [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 54.2%, up 1.9 percentage points; management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training segments [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $480 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" with an expected price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, with the education segment revenue reaching $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, exceeding guidance [2]. - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, estimating a total return of no less than $186 million for FY2025 [4]. - The education business is expected to experience a slowdown in revenue growth due to economic conditions and increased competition, with Q1 FY2026 international exam preparation and study abroad consulting revenues projected to decline by 5% year-over-year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.243 billion, with a 9.4% year-over-year increase. The education business revenue was $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, surpassing guidance. Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 6.5%, a 4.1 percentage point increase year-over-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The education business revenue growth is expected to slow in FY2026 due to economic and international factors. Q1 FY2026 international business is projected to decline by 5%, while K9 business is expected to grow by 15-16% [3]. - Profit pressure is anticipated from the slowdown in education revenue, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to positively impact profit margins by 1-1.5 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $5.276 billion, $5.719 billion, and $6.228 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 8% [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are $560 million, $598 million, and $641 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with adjusted PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, but faced challenges due to declining consumer spending and tightening study abroad environments in some countries [2][9] - E-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, although the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a cautious revenue outlook for FY2026, with expected growth of 5-10% for the fiscal year [3][18] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to continue improving operational efficiency and profitability while enhancing investor preference through the new shareholder return plan [3][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects a cautious revenue growth of 2-5%, primarily due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending power is declining [2][9] - The e-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, but the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5-10% for FY2026, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability [3][19] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to increase its network of schools and learning centers by 10-15% in FY2026 [2][9]

Transaction Overview - The company announced a change in the acquisition plan for a minority stake in Shanghai Yulun Education Technology Development Co., Ltd, with its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shanghai New Nanyang Education Technology Co., Ltd, set to acquire 20% of Yulun Education for RMB 13.36 million [1][2] - The acquisition will be executed in two phases, with the first phase involving the purchase of 29% of Yulun Education for RMB 49.3 million, and the second phase involving a maximum payment of RMB 34 million based on actual net profit calculations [4][5] Company Background - Yulun Education was established on June 7, 2004, with a registered capital of RMB 1 million, and operates in the field of educational technology, providing services such as study abroad consulting and international curriculum support [2][3] - The company has a well-structured internal governance and has appointed professional management to ensure that the recent passing of its previous owner does not significantly impact its operations [2] Financial Performance - As of the end of 2024, Yulun Education reported total assets of approximately RMB 60.29 million and total liabilities of about RMB 31.42 million, resulting in a net asset value of approximately RMB 28.87 million [4] - The company's revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was approximately RMB 4.61 million, with a net profit of around RMB 1.02 million [4] Impact of the Acquisition - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's management efficiency and increase its market share in the international and basic education sectors [6] - Following the acquisition, the company's net assets are projected to increase by approximately RMB 25 million, and its ownership of Yulun Education will rise from 80% to 100%, making Yulun a wholly-owned subsidiary [6] Authorization and Approval - The acquisition plan was approved by the company's board of directors, which has authorized the management team to handle all related matters, including signing agreements and processing registration changes [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The EdTech sector has experienced a significant decline in investment, with a year-on-year drop of 35% this quarter, indicating a cooling market overall [1][2] - Despite the overall decrease, investor interest remains strong in specific areas such as AI-driven solutions, international student mobility, and scalable models in emerging markets [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The average investment amount has increased to $7.8 million, as investors concentrate funds on fewer, stronger projects, with three companies receiving nearly half of the total funding [2][5] - The trend of "fewer deals but larger investments" suggests a shift towards quality over quantity in the EdTech investment landscape, indicating a more mature and consolidated market [5][6] Group 3: Regional Insights - North America leads in EdTech VC funding, followed by Europe and Central Asia, while regions like the Middle East and Latin America receive comparatively less investment [10][11] - China and the U.S. remain the largest investment regions, with cumulative investments of $29.7 billion and $28.2 billion respectively from 2010 to Q1 2025 [4][5] Group 4: M&A Activity - M&A activity in the EdTech sector has decreased by 32% year-on-year, reflecting the tightening investment environment, yet workforce learning institutions remain active, accounting for nearly one-third of all transactions [12][13] - Notable acquisitions include TLG Learning and Clover Learning, highlighting the ongoing demand for employee skill enhancement and retraining [12][13] Group 5: Focus Areas - Key focus areas for investment and M&A include scalable technology-driven solutions, AI infrastructure for educational institutions, and innovations in STEM education content [12][13]