新东方公布2QFY26 业绩（以下简称Q2）：总收入11.91 亿美元，yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限 机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/詹博/郑裕佳 （12%）；调整后经营利润0.89 亿美元，对应OPM 为7.5%，同比提升4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期 （yoy+2pct）。 公司指引3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长11~14%/8~12%（彭博一致预期12%/10%），反映 教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润率有望逐步改善，长期有望为 股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期分业务看，随着秋季K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌 机构增长环比改善，教育属性新业务收入在Q2 同比增速加速至21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入同比增 长12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长4.1%，留学咨询收入同比下降约3%，逆境 中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡献，Q2 公司调整后经营利润率同比提升4.7pc ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $1.191 billion for Q2FY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.7%, exceeding the guidance upper limit of 12% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q2 was $89 million, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 7.5%, which is a year-over-year increase of 4.7 percentage points, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [1][2]. - The company expects total revenue growth of 11-14% for Q3FY26 and 8-12% for the full fiscal year, reflecting improvements in teaching quality, returning demand, and favorable exchange rates [1][2]. - The core K12 business is showing robust growth, and the company is expected to gradually improve profit margins through cost reduction and efficiency enhancements, aiming to provide stable returns to shareholders in the long term [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2FY26, the company achieved a revenue of $1.191 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.7% [1]. - The adjusted operating profit margin increased to 7.5%, which is a 4.7 percentage point improvement from the previous year [2]. - The company has slightly raised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28 to $578 million, $681 million, and $756 million, respectively [8][4]. Business Segments - The K12 segment is experiencing a return to normal pricing competition, with new business revenues growing by 21.6% year-over-year in Q2 [2]. - The revenue from university and adult education increased by 12.8%, while study abroad training revenue grew by 4.1% [2]. - The company plans to merge its study abroad consulting and training businesses by the end of FY26, which is expected to streamline operations and enhance efficiency [3]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at $65.43 per share, based on an 18x FY26 PE ratio, reflecting the stability of its core business and leading shareholder returns in the industry [4][8]. - The previous target price was $67.31, indicating a slight adjustment based on updated profit forecasts [4][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Angli Education provides a range of pre- and post-study abroad services for domestic users, including study abroad consulting, background enhancement, summer camps, standardized language training, international school preparation, and full-time A-Level programs [2] Group 2 - The company emphasizes its focus on the study abroad business, catering specifically to the needs of domestic users [2] - The services offered by the company are comprehensive, covering various aspects of the study abroad process [2] - The interaction with investors highlights the company's commitment to transparency and engagement regarding its business operations [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][13]. Core Insights - New Oriental is recognized as a leading integrated education service provider in China, excelling in various segments including K-12 and overseas services. The company is leveraging generative AI to enhance operational efficiency and content quality, which is expected to support margin expansion [3][20]. - For FY26, the company anticipates a significant increase in shareholder returns, announcing a total of US$490 million in shareholder returns, including a cash dividend of US$190 million and a share buyback plan of US$300 million [5][25]. - The financial outlook for FY26 includes projected revenues of US$5.37 billion, with a net profit of approximately US$561 million, reflecting a profit margin of 10.4% [9][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 FY26, total revenue grew by 6.1% year-over-year to US$1.523 billion, exceeding previous guidance [21]. The adjusted operating profit increased by 11.3% to US$335.5 million, with an operating profit margin of 22% [4][24]. - The deferred revenue reached US$1.906 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase [21]. Business Segments - The K-12 segment is expected to accelerate in Q2 FY26, with high school growth projected at 12% and K9 new initiatives at 21% [22]. - The overseas business, while facing macroeconomic pressures, showed slight growth in Q1 FY26, with expectations of a 5% decline in Q2 due to high base effects [23]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, reflecting confidence in future profit growth [5][26]. - The expected dividend yield is approximately 5% based on the latest market capitalization [25]. Valuation - The target price is set at HK$49 per share, based on an 18x price-to-earnings ratio for FY26, indicating a strong valuation relative to peers [2][13].

Core Points - Yu Minhong issued an apology letter to employees while on a trip to Antarctica, explaining his intentions and addressing employee concerns about his travel and the use of red font in the letter [1][3][4] - The letter, which included descriptions of the Antarctic scenery, did not resonate well with employees, leading to criticism regarding the contrast between the CEO's distant experience and the employees' realities [4][5] - Yu Minhong clarified that the trip was not solely for personal leisure but also involved discussions on youth natural exploration education, with plans to establish a youth exploration center [5][8] Company Background - New Oriental Education Technology Group was founded in 1993 and became the first Chinese education institution to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006 [9] - The company has faced significant challenges since August 2021 due to regulatory changes and the pandemic, leading to a transformation towards live streaming and other new business areas [10] - Recent financial reports indicate a sharp decline in net profit and a slowdown in core education business growth, with a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 [10][11] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new education business growth [10] - The company expects second-quarter net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% to 12% [10] - As of November 21, 2023, New Oriental's stock price in the U.S. was $51.65, with a market capitalization of $8.2 billion, while its Hong Kong stock price was reported at HKD 39.2, with a market capitalization of HKD 619 billion [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The internal letter from Yu Minhong, founder of New Oriental, while expressing gratitude to employees, has sparked controversy as employees feel disconnected from the founder's experience in Antarctica during a time of significant work pressure [4][6][9]. Group 1: Company Background - New Oriental was founded in 1993 by Yu Minhong, starting from a small classroom and expanding into a major educational institution, becoming the first Chinese education company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006 [9]. - The company has diversified its services to include study abroad consulting, preschool education, and online education, but has faced significant challenges in recent years, leading to a substantial decline in stock price and market value [9][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments - As of the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, New Oriental reported a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million, primarily due to losses in the Oriental Selection business and goodwill impairment [10]. - The company’s revenue growth has slowed, with a decrease from 43.9% in the previous fiscal year to 13.6% [10]. - For the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new educational business growth [10]. Group 3: Market Performance - On November 17, New Oriental's stock in Hong Kong rose by 0.35% to HKD 41.48, with a market capitalization of HKD 65.6 billion [10]. - In the U.S. market, New Oriental's stock fell by 1.8% to $52.31, with a market capitalization of $8.3 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of HKD 45.88 [4][8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that K12 education may accelerate, boosting shareholder returns and enhancing confidence in the company's growth prospects [2]. - Financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of USD 4.9 billion in 2025, growing to USD 6.875 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3][16]. - The net profit is projected to increase from USD 372 million in 2025 to USD 792 million by 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.32 in 2025 to USD 0.45 in 2028 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million USD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,314 - 2025: 4,900 - 2026E: 5,413 - 2027E: 6,136 - 2028E: 6,875 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 43.9% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, and gradually declining to 12.0% by 2028 [3][16]. - Net profit (in million USD) projections are: - 2024: 310 - 2025: 372 - 2026E: 428 - 2027E: 481 - 2028E: 792 [3][16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for K12 business and 8x for study abroad business, reflecting expected profit growth rates of +25% and -7% respectively [7][8]. - The target price was adjusted upwards to HKD 55.00 from a previous HKD 46.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the strong demand and growth outlook for K12 education services [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected revenue growth in FY26Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing previous guidance of 2%-5% [7] - The overseas business showed significant improvement, with a 25% revenue growth in the low-age study abroad segment, indicating a shift in demand rather than a decline [7] - K12 business is expected to accelerate, with anticipated growth rates of approximately 20% for K9 and double-digit growth for high school, validating the strategy of prioritizing product quality [7] - The company announced a shareholder return plan totaling approximately $490 million, which is over 130% of FY25 net profit, indicating strong profit visibility and cash flow [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 22.0%, with expectations for further expansion in Q2, driven by better resource utilization and cost control [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from $4.9 billion in FY2025 to $6.3 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 9.96%, 10.00%, and 7.02% respectively [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from $371.72 million in FY2025 to $591.14 million in FY2028, with growth rates of 20.07%, 32.32%, 10.40%, and 8.87% respectively [1][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 15, and 14 times for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively based on Non-GAAP metrics [1][9]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $1.523 billion in Q1 FY2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast range of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Deferred revenue stood at $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Business Performance - The study abroad and university student segments outperformed expectations, while K12 business outlook remains positive [2] - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and active paid users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, impacted by scheduling and regional discounts; K12 business revenue is expected to accelerate in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad exam preparation and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, surpassing the previous growth expectation of 10% [2] Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, with plans to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million [3] - The shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated shareholder return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "better than market" rating due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [4] - The core strategy of "enhancing capabilities and quality" aligns with the industry's shift towards prioritizing quality post-pandemic, reflected in the steady recovery of adjusted operating profit margins and improved K12 student retention rates [4] - Forecasts for adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are $430 million, $480 million, and $530 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]