（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月11日，昂立教育在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司留学业务主要为国内用户 提供包括留学咨询、背景提升、暑期夏令营、标化语培、国际学校备考、A-Level全日制项目等留学前 后端服务。 ...

研究报告 Research Report 30 Nov 2025 新东方-S New Oriental (9901 HK) 首次覆盖：多元化的教培龙头；目标 FY26 利润率提升；未来股东回报将进一步提升 A diversified education leader targeting FY26 margin expansion and higher shareholder returns ahead: Initiation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$40.30 目标价 HK$49.00 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$65.90bn / US$8.46bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$29.15mn 发行股票数目 1,635mn 自由流通股 (%) 88% 1 年股价最高最低 ...

Core Points - Yu Minhong issued an apology letter to employees while on a trip to Antarctica, explaining his intentions and addressing employee concerns about his travel and the use of red font in the letter [1][3][4] - The letter, which included descriptions of the Antarctic scenery, did not resonate well with employees, leading to criticism regarding the contrast between the CEO's distant experience and the employees' realities [4][5] - Yu Minhong clarified that the trip was not solely for personal leisure but also involved discussions on youth natural exploration education, with plans to establish a youth exploration center [5][8] Company Background - New Oriental Education Technology Group was founded in 1993 and became the first Chinese education institution to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006 [9] - The company has faced significant challenges since August 2021 due to regulatory changes and the pandemic, leading to a transformation towards live streaming and other new business areas [10] - Recent financial reports indicate a sharp decline in net profit and a slowdown in core education business growth, with a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 [10][11] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new education business growth [10] - The company expects second-quarter net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% to 12% [10] - As of November 21, 2023, New Oriental's stock price in the U.S. was $51.65, with a market capitalization of $8.2 billion, while its Hong Kong stock price was reported at HKD 39.2, with a market capitalization of HKD 619 billion [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The internal letter from Yu Minhong, founder of New Oriental, while expressing gratitude to employees, has sparked controversy as employees feel disconnected from the founder's experience in Antarctica during a time of significant work pressure [4][6][9]. Group 1: Company Background - New Oriental was founded in 1993 by Yu Minhong, starting from a small classroom and expanding into a major educational institution, becoming the first Chinese education company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006 [9]. - The company has diversified its services to include study abroad consulting, preschool education, and online education, but has faced significant challenges in recent years, leading to a substantial decline in stock price and market value [9][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments - As of the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, New Oriental reported a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million, primarily due to losses in the Oriental Selection business and goodwill impairment [10]. - The company’s revenue growth has slowed, with a decrease from 43.9% in the previous fiscal year to 13.6% [10]. - For the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new educational business growth [10]. Group 3: Market Performance - On November 17, New Oriental's stock in Hong Kong rose by 0.35% to HKD 41.48, with a market capitalization of HKD 65.6 billion [10]. - In the U.S. market, New Oriental's stock fell by 1.8% to $52.31, with a market capitalization of $8.3 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of HKD 45.88 [4][8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that K12 education may accelerate, boosting shareholder returns and enhancing confidence in the company's growth prospects [2]. - Financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of USD 4.9 billion in 2025, growing to USD 6.875 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3][16]. - The net profit is projected to increase from USD 372 million in 2025 to USD 792 million by 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.32 in 2025 to USD 0.45 in 2028 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million USD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,314 - 2025: 4,900 - 2026E: 5,413 - 2027E: 6,136 - 2028E: 6,875 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 43.9% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, and gradually declining to 12.0% by 2028 [3][16]. - Net profit (in million USD) projections are: - 2024: 310 - 2025: 372 - 2026E: 428 - 2027E: 481 - 2028E: 792 [3][16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for K12 business and 8x for study abroad business, reflecting expected profit growth rates of +25% and -7% respectively [7][8]. - The target price was adjusted upwards to HKD 55.00 from a previous HKD 46.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the strong demand and growth outlook for K12 education services [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected revenue growth in FY26Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing previous guidance of 2%-5% [7] - The overseas business showed significant improvement, with a 25% revenue growth in the low-age study abroad segment, indicating a shift in demand rather than a decline [7] - K12 business is expected to accelerate, with anticipated growth rates of approximately 20% for K9 and double-digit growth for high school, validating the strategy of prioritizing product quality [7] - The company announced a shareholder return plan totaling approximately $490 million, which is over 130% of FY25 net profit, indicating strong profit visibility and cash flow [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 22.0%, with expectations for further expansion in Q2, driven by better resource utilization and cost control [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from $4.9 billion in FY2025 to $6.3 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 9.96%, 10.00%, and 7.02% respectively [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from $371.72 million in FY2025 to $591.14 million in FY2028, with growth rates of 20.07%, 32.32%, 10.40%, and 8.87% respectively [1][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 15, and 14 times for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively based on Non-GAAP metrics [1][9]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $1.523 billion in Q1 FY2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast range of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Deferred revenue stood at $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Business Performance - The study abroad and university student segments outperformed expectations, while K12 business outlook remains positive [2] - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and active paid users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, impacted by scheduling and regional discounts; K12 business revenue is expected to accelerate in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad exam preparation and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, surpassing the previous growth expectation of 10% [2] Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, with plans to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million [3] - The shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated shareholder return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "better than market" rating due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [4] - The core strategy of "enhancing capabilities and quality" aligns with the industry's shift towards prioritizing quality post-pandemic, reflected in the steady recovery of adjusted operating profit margins and improved K12 student retention rates [4] - Forecasts for adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are $430 million, $480 million, and $530 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [2] Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants reaching 530,000, an increase of 10% [2] - The number of active paid users for learning machines increased by 40% to 452,000, indicating strong brand appeal [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts [3] - Study abroad and consultation revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [3] - University business revenue rose by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [3] Future Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, the company expects revenue growth of 9%-12% and maintains a full-year revenue growth guidance of 5%-10% [4] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [4] - The board has approved a cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the previous fiscal year's net profit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business growth exceeding management guidance, but overall profitability impacted by a one-time goodwill impairment in the kindergarten segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025Q4 revenue reached $1.243 billion, a 9.4% increase year-over-year, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, growing 18.7%, surpassing the previous guidance of 10-13% [1] - Operating profit showed a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business; excluding this, the non-GAAP operating profit margin for non-selective business was 6.5%, up 4.1 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, down 73.7%; however, excluding one-time factors, the non-GAAP net profit was $98.08 million, reflecting a 59.4% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Growth - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, maintaining rapid growth; high school training revenue increased by 24%, supported by resilient supply-demand dynamics [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenues grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending pressure and tightening study abroad environments in some countries remain challenges [2] - E-commerce revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year due to the divestment of "With Huixing," though the quarter-on-quarter decline has improved [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 54.2%, up 1.9 percentage points; management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training segments [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $480 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3]