新东方公布2QFY26 业绩（以下简称Q2）：总收入11.91 亿美元，yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限 机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/詹博/郑裕佳 （12%）；调整后经营利润0.89 亿美元，对应OPM 为7.5%，同比提升4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期 （yoy+2pct）。 公司指引3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长11~14%/8~12%（彭博一致预期12%/10%），反映 教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润率有望逐步改善，长期有望为 股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期分业务看，随着秋季K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌 机构增长环比改善，教育属性新业务收入在Q2 同比增速加速至21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入同比增 长12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长4.1%，留学咨询收入同比下降约3%，逆境 中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡献，Q2 公司调整后经营利润率同比提升4.7pc ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 新东方公布 2QFY26 业绩（以下简称 Q2）：总收入 11.91 亿美元， yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限（12%）；调整后经营利润 0.89 亿美元，对 应 OPM 为 7.5%，同比提升 4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期（yoy+2pct）。 公司指引 3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长 11~14%/8~12%（彭 博一致预期 12%/10%），反映教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心 K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润 率有望逐步改善，长期有望为股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期 分业务看，随着秋季 K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌机构增长环比改善， 教育属性新业务收入在 Q2 同比增速加速至 21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入 同比增长 12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长 4.1%， 留学咨询收入同比下降约 3%，逆境中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优 化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Angli Education provides a range of pre- and post-study abroad services for domestic users, including study abroad consulting, background enhancement, summer camps, standardized language training, international school preparation, and full-time A-Level programs [2] Group 2 - The company emphasizes its focus on the study abroad business, catering specifically to the needs of domestic users [2] - The services offered by the company are comprehensive, covering various aspects of the study abroad process [2] - The interaction with investors highlights the company's commitment to transparency and engagement regarding its business operations [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][13]. Core Insights - New Oriental is recognized as a leading integrated education service provider in China, excelling in various segments including K-12 and overseas services. The company is leveraging generative AI to enhance operational efficiency and content quality, which is expected to support margin expansion [3][20]. - For FY26, the company anticipates a significant increase in shareholder returns, announcing a total of US$490 million in shareholder returns, including a cash dividend of US$190 million and a share buyback plan of US$300 million [5][25]. - The financial outlook for FY26 includes projected revenues of US$5.37 billion, with a net profit of approximately US$561 million, reflecting a profit margin of 10.4% [9][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 FY26, total revenue grew by 6.1% year-over-year to US$1.523 billion, exceeding previous guidance [21]. The adjusted operating profit increased by 11.3% to US$335.5 million, with an operating profit margin of 22% [4][24]. - The deferred revenue reached US$1.906 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase [21]. Business Segments - The K-12 segment is expected to accelerate in Q2 FY26, with high school growth projected at 12% and K9 new initiatives at 21% [22]. - The overseas business, while facing macroeconomic pressures, showed slight growth in Q1 FY26, with expectations of a 5% decline in Q2 due to high base effects [23]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, reflecting confidence in future profit growth [5][26]. - The expected dividend yield is approximately 5% based on the latest market capitalization [25]. Valuation - The target price is set at HK$49 per share, based on an 18x price-to-earnings ratio for FY26, indicating a strong valuation relative to peers [2][13].

Core Points - Yu Minhong issued an apology letter to employees while on a trip to Antarctica, explaining his intentions and addressing employee concerns about his travel and the use of red font in the letter [1][3][4] - The letter, which included descriptions of the Antarctic scenery, did not resonate well with employees, leading to criticism regarding the contrast between the CEO's distant experience and the employees' realities [4][5] - Yu Minhong clarified that the trip was not solely for personal leisure but also involved discussions on youth natural exploration education, with plans to establish a youth exploration center [5][8] Company Background - New Oriental Education Technology Group was founded in 1993 and became the first Chinese education institution to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006 [9] - The company has faced significant challenges since August 2021 due to regulatory changes and the pandemic, leading to a transformation towards live streaming and other new business areas [10] - Recent financial reports indicate a sharp decline in net profit and a slowdown in core education business growth, with a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 [10][11] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new education business growth [10] - The company expects second-quarter net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% to 12% [10] - As of November 21, 2023, New Oriental's stock price in the U.S. was $51.65, with a market capitalization of $8.2 billion, while its Hong Kong stock price was reported at HKD 39.2, with a market capitalization of HKD 619 billion [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The internal letter from Yu Minhong, founder of New Oriental, while expressing gratitude to employees, has sparked controversy as employees feel disconnected from the founder's experience in Antarctica during a time of significant work pressure [4][6][9]. Group 1: Company Background - New Oriental was founded in 1993 by Yu Minhong, starting from a small classroom and expanding into a major educational institution, becoming the first Chinese education company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006 [9]. - The company has diversified its services to include study abroad consulting, preschool education, and online education, but has faced significant challenges in recent years, leading to a substantial decline in stock price and market value [9][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments - As of the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, New Oriental reported a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million, primarily due to losses in the Oriental Selection business and goodwill impairment [10]. - The company’s revenue growth has slowed, with a decrease from 43.9% in the previous fiscal year to 13.6% [10]. - For the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new educational business growth [10]. Group 3: Market Performance - On November 17, New Oriental's stock in Hong Kong rose by 0.35% to HKD 41.48, with a market capitalization of HKD 65.6 billion [10]. - In the U.S. market, New Oriental's stock fell by 1.8% to $52.31, with a market capitalization of $8.3 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of HKD 45.88 [4][8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that K12 education may accelerate, boosting shareholder returns and enhancing confidence in the company's growth prospects [2]. - Financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of USD 4.9 billion in 2025, growing to USD 6.875 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3][16]. - The net profit is projected to increase from USD 372 million in 2025 to USD 792 million by 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.32 in 2025 to USD 0.45 in 2028 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million USD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,314 - 2025: 4,900 - 2026E: 5,413 - 2027E: 6,136 - 2028E: 6,875 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 43.9% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, and gradually declining to 12.0% by 2028 [3][16]. - Net profit (in million USD) projections are: - 2024: 310 - 2025: 372 - 2026E: 428 - 2027E: 481 - 2028E: 792 [3][16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for K12 business and 8x for study abroad business, reflecting expected profit growth rates of +25% and -7% respectively [7][8]. - The target price was adjusted upwards to HKD 55.00 from a previous HKD 46.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the strong demand and growth outlook for K12 education services [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected revenue growth in FY26Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing previous guidance of 2%-5% [7] - The overseas business showed significant improvement, with a 25% revenue growth in the low-age study abroad segment, indicating a shift in demand rather than a decline [7] - K12 business is expected to accelerate, with anticipated growth rates of approximately 20% for K9 and double-digit growth for high school, validating the strategy of prioritizing product quality [7] - The company announced a shareholder return plan totaling approximately $490 million, which is over 130% of FY25 net profit, indicating strong profit visibility and cash flow [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 22.0%, with expectations for further expansion in Q2, driven by better resource utilization and cost control [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from $4.9 billion in FY2025 to $6.3 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 9.96%, 10.00%, and 7.02% respectively [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from $371.72 million in FY2025 to $591.14 million in FY2028, with growth rates of 20.07%, 32.32%, 10.40%, and 8.87% respectively [1][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 15, and 14 times for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively based on Non-GAAP metrics [1][9]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $1.523 billion in Q1 FY2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast range of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Deferred revenue stood at $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Business Performance - The study abroad and university student segments outperformed expectations, while K12 business outlook remains positive [2] - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and active paid users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, impacted by scheduling and regional discounts; K12 business revenue is expected to accelerate in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad exam preparation and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, surpassing the previous growth expectation of 10% [2] Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, with plans to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million [3] - The shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated shareholder return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "better than market" rating due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [4] - The core strategy of "enhancing capabilities and quality" aligns with the industry's shift towards prioritizing quality post-pandemic, reflected in the steady recovery of adjusted operating profit margins and improved K12 student retention rates [4] - Forecasts for adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are $430 million, $480 million, and $530 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]