道总有理 . 科技创新与商业动态观察家，探究产业趋势，深挖商业内幕，只讲有用的干货，只做有价值的输出。 以下文章来源于道总有理 ，作者道总 来源丨道总有理 （ID： daotmt 道总 最近，TOP TOY正式开始冲击港交所。 7月份，TOP TOY刚完成由淡马锡领投的5942.6万美元A轮融资，对应估值达13亿美元（约合102亿 港元），这一数字与一度突破4000亿港元大关的泡泡玛特相比，并不算突出。 有趣的是，泡泡玛特今年以来在港股表现亮眼，这段时间却遭遇了业绩与股价背离。 10月21日，泡泡玛特公布2025年第三季度业绩报告：整体收益同比激增245%-250%，海外市场增 速更是高达365%-370%。 但业绩披露当日，其股价单日暴跌8.08%，且此后连续5个交易日持续走低；10月23日跌幅进一步扩 大至9%，创下4月以来最大单日跌幅，短短两个月内总市值已缩水至3121亿港元。 ） 作者丨 一边是潮玩新品在二手市场溢价数倍、开售即秒罄的消费热度，一边是龙头企业业绩高增却股价回 调、新玩家IPO估值承压，卡游和52TOYS仍处在招股书阶段，资本冷静的反差背后，不禁让人发 问：潮玩行业是否已经失去了增长潜力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth and popularity of Pop Mart, particularly its LABUBU product line, which has become a cultural symbol and is experiencing a surge in demand both domestically and internationally [2][3] - As of May 27, Pop Mart's stock price reached a new high of 234.60 HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 150%, with a market capitalization of approximately 314.25 billion HKD [2] - The recent release of the "Qianfang Gaoneng" series of plush toys has led to a buying frenzy, with notable endorsements from celebrities like David Beckham and Rihanna, further enhancing the brand's visibility and appeal [2] Group 2 - According to the first quarter report for 2025, Pop Mart's overall revenue increased by 165% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growing by 95% to 100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475% to 480% [2] - The revenue growth rates for different regions are impressive, with the Americas seeing an increase of 895% to 900%, Europe at 600% to 605%, and the Asia-Pacific region at 345% to 350% [2] - A significant increase in institutional interest is noted, with 182 public funds holding a total of 60.79 million shares of Pop Mart by the end of the first quarter, compared to only 30 funds holding 44.69 million shares a year earlier [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that Pop Mart is a leader in the Chinese IP product market, with LABUBU emerging as a super IP, surpassing the search popularity of Hello Kitty in May [3] - The sales forecast for the THE MONSTERS series, which includes LABUBU, is projected to grow from 3 billion RMB in 2024 to 14 billion RMB by 2027, with overseas sales expected to increase by 152% in 2025 [3] - The company is anticipated to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 44% in sales and 56% in profit from 2024 to 2027, driven by strong IP, store expansion, productivity improvements, and product line diversification [3]