阅文与王者荣耀联动，关注 IP 衍生品行 业势能 ——轻工纺服行业周报（20250811-0815） 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.08.11-2025.08.15），A股 SW纺织服饰行 业指数下滑 1.37%，轻工制造行业上涨 1.56%，而沪深 300 上涨 2.37%，上证指数上涨 1.70%。纺织服装在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅 排名第 29 位，轻工制造在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 16 位。 二、核心逻辑： 1）轻工行业：①我们认为潮玩谷子行业需求快速增长，Z 世代引领新 消费趋势，盲盒等产品触及情绪价值深层需求。伴随泡泡玛特、国谷 等产品走向世界，中国 IP 文化加速渗透。②DeepSeek 等 AI 新技术 与轻工制造有望深度融合，伴随以旧换新政策延续、财政持续发力、 国家推动房地产市场止跌回稳等，轻工内需有望逐步企稳，实现估值 修复。 潮玩谷子：阅文集团与王者荣耀联动，深耕 IP 衍生品市场。根据北京 商报网，近日阅文集团与王者荣耀启动了"国创内容战略合作计划"， 同步发布并上线了《诡秘之主》与王者荣耀联动，本次两大世界级 IP 联动，系双方深度合作以来，首次实现周边和皮肤同步上 ...

Core Insights - The office furniture industry in China is facing challenges due to macroeconomic fluctuations, evolving consumer demands, and technological innovations, leading to a projected market size of 267.7 billion yuan in 2024 with a growth rate dropping below 5% [1][2] - The traditional "production-sales" model is becoming increasingly ineffective, highlighting a systemic mismatch between supply and demand, particularly in Guangdong, where the urgency for industry transformation is pronounced [1][2] - The shift from a product-centric to a service-oriented business model is essential, as clients now require comprehensive support throughout the entire process from design to maintenance [2][3] Company Strategy - Saint-O's new Greater Bay Area Experience Center spans approximately 3,000 square meters and aims to provide a multi-functional space that includes product design displays, office space solutions, and integrated services [3][4] - The center is designed as a "shared platform" for partners, offering five free benefits to industry collaborators, including free use of exhibition space and support for design and manufacturing [3][5] - The establishment of the Experience Center is part of Saint-O's strategy to enhance its global presence while providing localized services, reflecting its commitment to "brand globalization and local service" [5][6] Market Positioning - Saint-O has been actively serving major clients in Shenzhen, including Tencent and DJI, and has established a strong presence in Guangdong, with a significant number of benchmark cases in the region [5][6] - The company is expanding its global footprint with new facilities in Mexico and ongoing developments in its South China headquarters, emphasizing its strategic focus on collaboration and ecosystem building [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Nankang District in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, from a former poverty-stricken area to the largest solid wood furniture manufacturing base in China, contributing to 40% of the country's imported rubber wood and housing over 20,000 furniture manufacturing and supporting enterprises. The furniture industry cluster achieved an output value exceeding 140 billion yuan in the first half of this year [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Development - Nankang has established itself as a global player in the furniture industry, importing wood from over 50 countries and exporting furniture to more than 100 countries [6][10]. - The establishment of the Ganzhou International Land Port has facilitated the import of timber, addressing one-third of Nankang's wood demand and enabling the local industry to thrive [2][6]. - The local government has initiated the Furniture Industry Promotion Bureau to encourage diversified development among furniture enterprises, focusing on original design to combat low-end homogenization and sales challenges [7][8]. Group 2: Design and Innovation - To enhance product value, Nankang has introduced over 300 domestic and international design institutions and trained more than 1,000 designers, establishing two national-level industrial furniture design centers [10][12]. - The government has implemented a design fee subsidy program, providing 50% reimbursement for design costs, with over 22 million yuan allocated to support more than 2,000 furniture companies [14][12]. - The shift towards personalized customization in furniture is driven by intelligent production systems, allowing for efficient order processing and high material utilization rates of up to 93% [19][21]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Impact - The booming furniture industry in Nankang has created job opportunities for approximately 500,000 people, significantly improving local livelihoods [25][29]. - Policies have been enacted to incentivize companies to hire rural labor, providing financial support for those who employ a certain number of impoverished workers [27][29]. - The furniture industry has become a pillar for poverty alleviation, with nearly 20,000 impoverished workers benefiting from stable incomes through the furniture and supporting industries [29][31].

Group 1: Business Overview - The company focuses on B2B office supplies procurement, serving over half of the 98 central enterprises in China, including major clients like state-owned enterprises and Fortune 500 companies [2][3] - The main business segments include office supplies, MRO industrial products, employee welfare items, and marketing materials, with office supplies accounting for nearly half of the business [9] Group 2: Market Trends and Growth - The MRO industrial products segment is rapidly growing, leveraging existing office supplies clients to expand its market share [4][9] - The employee welfare market is shifting towards integrated and diversified procurement models, with increasing online penetration [4] Group 3: Brand Development and Strategy - The company emphasizes its proprietary brand as a cornerstone of its long-term development, focusing on young consumers and integrating traditional Chinese culture into product design [5][10] - Collaborations with quality IPs are a key strategy to enhance brand appeal and market reach, with partnerships including popular domestic IPs [12][13] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects stable growth in B2B business revenue, with over 50% of central enterprises engaged in procurement, providing new growth opportunities [6] - Strategies to improve gross margins include increasing the sales proportion of proprietary brand products and enhancing supply chain management [11] Group 5: Future Investments - The company maintains a strong cash flow and is open to exploring investment and acquisition opportunities while ensuring prudent evaluation [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the United States has alleviated pressure on foreign trade enterprises, leading to a turnaround in production and operations [1] Company Strategies - The company in Luoyang, Henan, has seen a backlog of over 20,000 products due to previous order cancellations from U.S. clients, prompting a shift in focus to other overseas markets and retail consumers [1] - The company plans to deepen its diversified market strategy, targeting emerging markets in Japan, Europe, and Central Asia, while also enhancing its "semi-managed model" to reduce logistics and compliance costs [1] - The company aims to promote brand strategy and improve risk resistance through market diversification, technological independence, and supply chain optimization [1] Market Diversification Efforts - The hair products company in Henan has experienced a significant impact on orders, with a total of $4 million affected due to U.S. retailers halting orders since March [2] - The company is actively exploring new markets in Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America to reduce reliance on the U.S. market while also focusing on domestic market growth [2] - The automotive parts company in Nanyang has successfully entered the European high-end market by leveraging its offices in Germany, France, and Sweden, thus increasing revenue from regions outside the U.S. [2] Trade Data and Growth - In the first four months of 2025, Henan Province's foreign trade reached 275.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with exports growing by 44.1% and imports by 6.5% [3] - Trade with ASEAN and EU has seen rapid growth, with imports and exports to ASEAN increasing by 11% and to the EU by 19.2% [3] - The province is also enhancing support for foreign trade enterprises through initiatives like "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" and "Double Product Online Shopping Festival," resulting in a 42% domestic sales conversion rate [3] Financial Support Initiatives - Henan Province has implemented ten financial measures to provide comprehensive services to foreign trade enterprises, ensuring each company has at least one bank for tracking services [4] - Customized financial service plans are being developed based on the operational characteristics of each foreign trade enterprise [4] - The province aims to expand the coverage of export credit insurance to over 45% and explore "cross-border e-commerce insurance" through a co-insurance model [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 33.67 CNY, based on a projected PE of 10.8x for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading exporter of office furniture, benefiting from a recovery in U.S. home demand and a robust cross-border e-commerce strategy. The integration of multiple quality acquisitions is expected to gradually contribute to performance, with long-term growth prospects remaining strong [9][11][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.03 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 34.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 263 million CNY, a slight decrease of 0.02% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 2.65 billion CNY, up 12.74% year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 49.49% to 52 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 18.64%, down 5.15 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased shipping costs [4][11]. Business Segment Performance - The company's OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) business generated 5.94 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, a significant increase of 76.97%, accounting for 53.86% of total revenue [2]. - International revenue reached 9.89 billion CNY in 2024, a growth of 48.88%, while domestic revenue fell by 27.45% to 1.11 billion CNY [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its cross-border e-commerce operations, establishing overseas warehouses for efficient logistics and building independent online platforms to enhance brand visibility [3][8]. - The company is also focusing on a "big home" strategy, upgrading product systems and expanding categories to enhance competitiveness [8][9]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 12.72 billion CNY, 14.51 billion CNY, and 16.80 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.30%, 14.07%, and 15.79% respectively [9][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 390 million CNY, 467 million CNY, and 577 million CNY, with growth rates of 48.44%, 19.53%, and 23.58% respectively [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company [4][9][13] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 34.59% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 11.03 billion yuan, although net profit slightly declined by 0.02% to 263 million yuan [1] - The company is expanding its cross-border e-commerce operations, with international revenue growing by 48.88% in 2024, while domestic revenue decreased by 27.45% [3][9] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will continue to grow, projecting revenues of 12.72 billion yuan, 14.51 billion yuan, and 16.80 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 390 million yuan, 467 million yuan, and 577 million yuan [10][11] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 18.64%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased shipping costs [4][8] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased to 13.38% in 2024, down 2.99 percentage points year-on-year [4][7] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.41%, a decline of 0.98 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading exporter of office furniture, benefiting from a recovery in U.S. home furnishing demand and a robust cross-border e-commerce strategy [9][11] - The company has adopted a dual strategy of "manufacturing overseas and brand expansion," enhancing its logistics efficiency through overseas warehouses and local sales teams in key markets [3][8] - The report highlights the company's proactive measures to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs by diversifying production locations and enhancing operational efficiency [8][9] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 33.67 yuan, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x for 2025 [4][9][13] - The report compares the company with peers in the home furnishings export sector, indicating a favorable valuation relative to competitors [13][14]

Industry Overview - The Chinese furniture industry is undergoing profound changes driven by globalization and consumption upgrades, with brand competitiveness becoming a key indicator of maturity [1] - The China Furniture Association has released a list of the top ten furniture brands, highlighting companies like Saint-Ao Technology, Kuka Home, and Qianyu Furniture as industry benchmarks [1] Company Highlights - **Saint-Ao Technology**: Founded in 1991, it focuses on office commercial furniture and has developed a dual-driven strategy for ecological office development. The company emphasizes innovation and has established a global R&D network, leading to a range of smart office furniture products [3] - **Kuka Home**: Established in 1982, it offers a comprehensive range of furniture products, focusing on comfort, fashion, and environmental sustainability. The brand has made significant advancements in smart furniture and maintains a robust sales and logistics network [6] - **Xilinmen**: Founded in 1984, it specializes in high-quality mattresses and has a strong focus on sleep health. The brand integrates advanced materials and manufacturing techniques to enhance product quality and comfort [7] - **Qianyu Furniture**: Established in 1986, it aims to provide one-stop green and personalized home solutions. The brand emphasizes quality, environmental protection, and value, with a strong focus on board furniture and sofas [9] - **Tian Tan Furniture**: Founded in 1956, it offers a diverse range of products and has a strong market presence in China. The brand focuses on green home development and has a comprehensive sales and service network [8] - **Hai Tai Ou Lin**: Established in 1996, it specializes in smart office and healthcare furniture, emphasizing sustainable development and quality craftsmanship [10] - **Changjiang Furniture**: Founded in 1986, it focuses on high-quality office furniture and has a strong technical foundation in product development [11] - **Fengyang Furniture**: Established in 1973, it specializes in mattresses and aims to create a new healthy sleep environment while promoting Eastern sleep culture [12] - **Yonghua Red Wood**: Founded in 1986, it is a leader in the redwood furniture sector, combining traditional craftsmanship with modern design elements [13] Conclusion - The release of the top ten furniture brands not only recognizes their achievements but also showcases the high-quality development of the entire furniture industry. These brands set new benchmarks in product quality, design innovation, market expansion, and social responsibility [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on creating a "formaldehyde-free" office environment through the use of green raw materials and innovative processes, aiming to promote health and sustainability in the workplace [1]. Group 1: Green Materials - The company utilizes its self-developed "Clear Core Board" as the main material, combining natural wood and environmentally friendly MDI glue, eliminating the use of formaldehyde adhesives found in traditional boards [2]. - The technology was developed in collaboration with Wanhua Chemical, which has extensive research and intellectual property in reducing formaldehyde emissions, providing technical support for enhancing the environmental performance of the boards [2]. Group 2: Smart Manufacturing - The company has introduced advanced technologies such as 3D laser edge banding and 7-PLUS water-based coatings to optimize the manufacturing process for "formaldehyde-free" products [4]. - A CNAS-certified laboratory conducts over 200 tests on raw materials, production processes, and finished products to ensure environmental standards are maintained throughout the product lifecycle [4]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The company actively collaborates with various enterprises, including Fenglin Wood Industry, Huafu Decorative Board, and Jinfat Technology, to establish the "Office Commercial Low Carbon Alliance," aimed at reducing product carbon footprints and promoting a low-carbon model in the industry [5]. - The alliance supports member companies in achieving green development goals by introducing eco-friendly carbon reduction technologies and sharing low-carbon experiences and results [5]. - The company remains committed to developing and producing high-quality office furniture using environmentally friendly materials, striving to create healthier and more comfortable office environments while promoting sustainable development in the office furniture industry [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The full year adjusted earnings per share finished at $1.12, exceeding the top end of the targets communicated at the beginning of the fiscal year [8] - Adjusted operating margin was 5%, with 7% in the Americas [9] - Fourth quarter revenue was $788 million, in the upper end of the estimated range, benefiting from stronger-than-expected order growth in the Americas [22] - Organic revenue declined by 5% compared to the prior year, with a 3% decline in the Americas and a 10% decline in International [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas segment saw a 12% growth in orders during Q4, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year order growth [9][28] - The International segment experienced a 1% growth in orders, driven by strong growth in India and Spain, offset by weakness in Germany and the UK [28] - The small and midsize business segment, particularly the AMQ brand, grew at a strong double-digit percentage in fiscal '25 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US office leasing activity in Q4 increased by 24% versus Q3 and 23% year-over-year, marking the highest quarter of leasing activity in three years [10] - The healthcare industry is poised for continued growth, driven by an aging US demographic requiring more healthcare services [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to lead the transformation of the workplace, focusing on creating workspaces that adapt to changing employee needs [11] - The strategy includes expanding reach within markets, with all customer segments in the Americas posting year-over-year order growth, except for the consumer business [14] - The company is developing a new ERP system to simplify processes and enhance capabilities, targeting a go-live in calendar year 2026 [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the progress made against the strategy despite a dynamic environment of evolving tariff and trade policies [20] - The company anticipates organic revenue growth of 4% to 6% for fiscal 2026, assuming a stable macro environment and continued positive sentiment from large corporate customers [32][36] - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the macro environment but remains hopeful about demand due to the ongoing return to office trends [80][84] Other Important Information - The company generated $100 million of free cash flow and returned $84 million to shareholders [18] - A tariff recovery charge was announced, which is tied to tariffs and inflationary pressures, and could be adjusted based on the evolving tariff landscape [89] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you run through the commentary around the order pacing through the fourth quarter? - Management noted that orders followed normal seasonal patterns, with strong growth in February and expectations for strong order levels due to the tariff recovery charge [41][42] Question: What actions are being taken to improve profitability in the International segment? - Management expects growth in the International business and is reviewing the cost structure to enhance profitability [44][45] Question: Can you clarify the variable compensation and tax items recorded in Q4? - The tax items were driven by a regulation change and strategic tax planning, while variable compensation adjustments are tied to these tax changes [53][55] Question: What is the sentiment regarding buybacks in the current environment? - The company targeted buybacks to offset dilution and plans to continue this strategy in fiscal 2026 [61] Question: How flexible is the tariff recovery charge? - The charge is a stated percentage of list price and may be adjusted based on the evolving tariff landscape [89][90] Question: What is the outlook for small and medium business growth? - While there was softness in Europe, the Americas segment showed order growth, and the company plans to continue investing in this area [94][96]