1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rebounded, and currently, industry leaders are bullish on the demand and price of lithium carbonate in 2026. The market is conducting long - short trading around the resumption of production at Jiangxi mines, and the exchange has introduced policies to suppress price fluctuations [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to increase, and the supply is restricted. The cost is rising, which forms a support for the price. The price is expected to be between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Route - **Background**: In 2025, due to oversupply, the price of lithium carbonate dropped from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 yuan/ton at the end of June. Then, driven by favorable fundamentals, it climbed to around 100,000 yuan/ton. The market has different views on the future price, so the research was carried out [2] - **Route**: The research route covered Jiujiang, Xinyu, and Yichun, with a total of 7 research samples, including 4 lithium salt enterprises, 1 lithium mine enterprise, 1 battery enterprise, and 1 industry association [3] 3.2 Summary of Enterprise and Industry Research Information 3.2.1 Lithium Salt Enterprises - **J Company**: It extracts lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from lithium - containing minerals. The planned production capacity is 50,000 tons, with 20,000 tons of flexible production lines already built. The production ratio of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate is 1:1. It uses the causticization route, with over 60% of the ore used to produce lithium hydroxide. The raw materials are mainly from salt lakes and recycling, and the inventory is about one week. The monthly sales volume is 1200 - 1400 tons, and it plans to conduct hedging [4] - **L Company**: It processes lithium salt relying on upstream cooperative mining enterprises. The current production capacity is 40,000 tons, and the current monthly output is 3300 tons. The raw materials are mainly from Hunan, and the price is calculated based on futures and processing fees. It is in a state of full production and full sales, and the price is set according to futures [4][5] - **H Company**: It is one of the earliest companies to extract lithium from mica, with a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is in full - production, and the raw materials are mainly mica ore and recycled materials. The supply is affected by the market price of lithium carbonate [5] - **T Company**: It engages in lithium salt toll - processing, with a production capacity of 5000 tons. The downstream demand is good, and the production is scheduled until the first half of next year. The processing fee has decreased, and it participates in futures hedging. It estimates that the price of lithium carbonate will reach 150,000 yuan/ton next year [5][6] 3.2.2 Lithium Mine Enterprise - **Z Company**: The mine has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate. After the technological transformation at the end of this year, the corresponding production capacity of lithium fluoride and lithium carbonate will be 72,000 tons. The current production capacity is about 60,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 50,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026. It also produces rubidium and cesium salts, with a profit margin of over 50%. It has participated in futures hedging of several thousand tons [7] 3.2.3 Battery Enterprise - **D Company**: It focuses on high - end semi - solid polymer small - power lithium - ion batteries, with products used in drones and two - wheeled vehicles. The downstream order demand is strong, and the prices of raw materials such as electrolyte, diaphragm, and cathode materials are rising. It believes that the price of lithium carbonate will be above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the demand for small - power batteries will be huge [8][9] 3.2.4 Industry Association - **F Branch**: In November 2025, the global supply of lithium carbonate was about 115,000 tons, with a demand of 128,000 tons, a gap of 13,000 tons. The A - share lithium mining sector has room for valuation repair. The whole - industry chain inventory is at a historical low, with strong demand resilience and huge restocking demand [10] - **Demand**: In 2026, the adjustment of the purchase tax exemption policy will drive the demand for new energy vehicles, and the breakthrough in all - solid - state battery technology will open up the application space for lithium resources. The demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage field is increasing [11] - **Supply**: The resumption of production of a core lithium mine in Jiangxi is delayed, the production capacity and output of lithium mica enterprises in Yichun have decreased, and the supply expansion of overseas lithium resources is restricted [11][12] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium carbonate is rising, and 80,000 yuan/ton is the critical line for the restart of high - cost production capacity [12] - **2026 Expectation**: The optimistic expectation is that the demand growth rate is 30 - 40%, and the price is expected to exceed 150,000 yuan/ton. The neutral expectation is that the price will be maintained at 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Summary of Lithium Salt Research - **Supply and Demand**: The prices of the whole lithium carbonate industry chain are rising, and enterprises generally believe that the price will be above 100,000 yuan/ton next year. The leading lithium salt enterprises in Yichun are in a state of full production and full sales, while non - leading enterprises are in a state of suspension [13] - **Quotation**: The sales prices of lithium ore, recycled materials, and lithium carbonate are basically linked to the market price of lithium carbonate plus or minus the processing fee [14] - **Resumption of Production**: The Jiuxiaowo mine is still shut down, and the earliest resumption of production will be at the end of December or early next year. The actual monthly supply of lithium carbonate is about 7000 tons [14] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium mica is equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of the Jiuxiaowo mine is expected to be 80,000 yuan/ton [14] - **Future Supply and Demand and Price**: It is expected that in 2026, the global supply of lithium carbonate will be 2.089 million tons, and the demand will be 2.004 million tons, with a static surplus of 85,000 tons. Considering the restocking demand, the supply - demand structure will be in short supply, and the price is likely to fluctuate between 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]