1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.93% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 40,309 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and lithium recycling increased by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking. Downstream inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 964 tons to 33,492 tons [3]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and the firm price of lithium ore still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. It is necessary to manage positions well [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,740 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 856 US dollars/ton. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton and 1,875 yuan/ton respectively. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 70 yuan to 6,150 yuan/ton, and the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 75 yuan to 7,285 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.05 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased by 250 yuan to 58,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 230 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 494 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells increased slightly, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, different grades of lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - **Spreads**: Charts 11 - 22 show the trends of various spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][22]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

2025 年 9 月 26 日 碳酸锂：产量增势不减，震荡运行 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 74,040 | 1,160 | 1,160 | 3,040 | -4,980 | 13,300 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 342,719 | -2,502 | -159,550 | -83,322 | -216,880 | 314,698 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 261,141 | 487 | -20,270 | -62,315 | -88,355 | 173,828 | | | 盘面 | 2601合约（收盘价） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market sentiment weakened today, with futures hitting the daily limit during the session and the main contract LC2511 closing at the limit price of 80,980. The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede, while the fundamentals showed no obvious turning signal. The short - term seasonal support maintains a tight balance in the fundamentals, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. The lithium carbonate price is still greatly affected by short - term news, with limited downward space, and the main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1][3][6] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, the overall sentiment in the lithium carbonate market weakened. After a sharp low opening in the morning, the market continued to trade downward. Futures hit the daily limit across the board during the session. Some contracts opened during the afternoon session, but the overall market remained weak. The main contract LC2511 closed at the daily limit price of 80,980 [1] Factors Affecting the Market - **Macro and Sentiment Factors**: The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede. After the main contract broke through 90,000 on Monday but failed to hold, some funds left the market in advance. Yesterday, the market sentiment adjusted, combined with the weakening macro - atmosphere and less - than - expected policy statements. The commodity night market was generally in the red, and negative news also triggered market discussions, intensifying capital stampede [3] - **Supply - related News**: Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli will resume production, which is in line with the previous 26 - day maintenance plan and has little impact on the overall supply. The Trump administration said it will highly prioritize law enforcement in several new industrial sectors including lithium, mainly related to product exports from Xinjiang. However, lithium projects in Xinjiang have not been scaled up, and the proportion of lithium - battery exports to the US has declined, so the actual impact may be limited. The results of mining rights issues in other mining areas in Jiangxi (except Jiaxiaowo) before September 30 and the resumption of production in Qinghai Salt Lake are still unclear, which may provide trading opportunities [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The fundamentals have maintained a tight balance recently. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply has not significantly declined. Last week's production data was mainly driven by an increase in subcontracting. However, there is an expectation of a short - term contraction in domestic supply, which is expected to be gradually reflected in this week's data. In July, the total import of spodumene was 750,651 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%, and the import volume increased due to price incentives. The total export of lithium carbonate from Argentina in July was 10,300 tons, of which 9,000 tons were exported to China, with a significant month - on - month increase in exports, which supplemented the reduction in domestic supply to some extent [4] - **Demand**: Demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Most orders for lithium iron phosphate have increased. The production of ternary materials has also increased due to the increase in customer - supplied demand from the cell end. The overall orders for electrolytes are good. However, the sustainability of the actual demand boost under the inventory pressure of the material industry chain still needs to be tracked. Last week, there was a slight de - stocking across the board. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decrease, while downstream and other trading sectors had a certain amount of restocking. As of August 14, the total weekly inventory in the SMM sample was 142,256 tons, with smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, downstream inventory at 48,283 tons, and inventory in other sectors at 44,280 tons [5] Market Outlook - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is still greatly affected by news, with limited downward space. The main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term as the fundamentals are in a tight balance in the short term due to seasonal support, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. After the third quarter, there are still project expectations for African mines, South American and domestic salt lakes to increase production [6]

目前来看，碳酸锂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于碳酸锂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 中金财富期货表示，随着宜春时代采矿停工后，碳酸锂价格走强，并且市场开始预期后端冶炼企业在权 益矿和库存矿使用完毕后，将进入长期停产模式。与此同时，青海地区企业采矿证到期，国家自然资源 部尚未公开续证并新增矿证规模，市场担忧哪怕续证后因为超产问题，四季度存在停产的不确定性，市 场也担忧续证的时间。目前碳酸锂市场不确定性依然较大，预计仍将明显波动。 8月18日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，碳酸锂期货主力合约开盘报88160.0元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，碳酸锂主力最高触及90100.0元，下方探低87720.0元，涨幅达5.25%附 近。 新湖期货分析称，现阶段碳酸锂市场交易核心仍在供给端扰动，除枧下窝项目外，市场对国内云母端、 青海盐湖端、以及智利盐湖端均存有一定供应减量预期，预计现阶段锂价已较为充分计价枧下窝项目直 接供需影响量，不确定在于后续矿权扰动继续传导的情况、资金驱动强度以及即将进入旺季下游采购节 奏和补库预期是否会加速，从预期层面而言，仍有一定上行空间，且在此阶段供应端扰 ...

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate main contract prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 69,980 yuan/ton before closing at 67,960 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - Analysts believe that supply-side disturbances and a continuous decrease in exchange warehouse receipts are the main factors driving recent price increases, while the overall supply remains sufficient [1] - Despite being a traditional off-season for demand, downstream orders are still relatively stable, indicating a less pronounced seasonal effect [1] Group 2 - Cangge Mining announced a halt in lithium resource development activities, affecting a production line with a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, but the overall impact on the domestic lithium carbonate market supply is limited [2] - Domestic lithium carbonate production plans for July are projected to be 79,300 tons, a 7.1% increase month-on-month, with high operating rates maintained in Jiangxi and stable output in Qinghai [2] - Some manufacturers are experiencing increased orders and production enthusiasm, despite planned maintenance on certain spodumene production lines [2] Group 3 - Market sentiment is significantly driven by disturbances at the mining end, with lithium prices remaining strong, although downstream material manufacturers show little intention to actively replenish stocks [3] - The recent price increases are primarily driven by supply-side disturbances, with limited actual impact on the fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach in the short term [3] - Continuous reduction in warehouse receipts and rising lithium ore prices, combined with various market news disturbances, are stimulating price increases, while long-term hedging pressures may arise [3]

碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 0.16%至 62780 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持 61300 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价维持 59700 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 100 元/吨至 57720 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 312 吨至 22940 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比增加 305 吨至 18767 吨，其中云母增量相对明显，6 月碳酸锂产量环 比增加超 9%。需求端，据第三方排产数据来看，7 月预计磷酸铁锂产量环比增长 3%，三元材料产 量环比增长 1.3%；周度库存周转天数均有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显。库存端，周度库存环比增 加 1936 吨至 136837 吨，其中下游增加 269 吨至 40635 吨，中间环节增加 1260 吨至 37170 吨，上游 增加 407 吨至 59032 吨。 3. 上周锂矿成交价格小幅上涨，锂盐厂宣布停产检修及技改，叠加市场消息面扰动较多，但当前价格 面临一定套保压力，且矿山端未有停减产迹象，短期或仍偏震荡运行。 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In April, lithium carbonate production scheduling was basically stable, cathode production scheduling increased slightly, and the supply - demand gap narrowed. Social inventories continued to accumulate, and downstream raw material inventories were at a high level. Short - term downstream purchases were mainly for刚需, and production still adopted long - term order and customer - supplied models. It is expected that the futures price will be mainly in a weak and volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 71,450 yuan, down 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 69,650 yuan, unchanged [1]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts on April 21, 2025 were as follows: Li2505 was 70,320 yuan, down 0.28%; Li2506 was 70,260 yuan, down 0.26%; Li2507 was 70,180 yuan, down 0.34%; Li2508 was 71,300 yuan, down 0.11%; Li2509 was 71,460 yuan, down 0.2% [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 808 yuan, down 1 yuan. The prices of different types of lithium mica and lithium - aluminum phosphate ore also had corresponding changes [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) all decreased to varying degrees [2]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract, and among different - term futures contracts all had corresponding changes [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) was 131,605 tons, with inventory in smelters, downstream, and other sectors changing differently. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) were 29,562 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2]. Production Profit - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally was 74,466 yuan, with a profit of - 3,998 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally was 76,596 yuan, with a profit of - 7,845 yuan [2]. Other News - CATL was approved to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with an expected fundraising of at least $5 billion (about 36.5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for overseas capacity expansion and international business development [2]. - A lithium ore exploration right in Hotan, Xinjiang was successfully auctioned at a price of 500.196 million yuan, with a premium rate of 12,906% [2].