1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate will seek support around the cost line (150,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton) and show a weak oscillating pattern, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. The core contradiction lies in the game between the short - term emotional premium caused by supply - side news disturbances (African export policy) and the actual resilience of the demand side, which buys at low prices but lacks the willingness to chase high prices. The market is re - evaluating the effectiveness of fundamental and cost support [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The price dropped by 2.61% from 156,160 yuan/ton last Friday to 152,080 yuan/ton this Friday [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Spot**: The arrival price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon) increased by 2.29% to 158,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.31% to 155,250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The prices of different types of lithium hydroxide all increased, with an increase rate between 1.53% - 1.64% [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate Premium**: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises changed. For example, the premium of mica - based lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium changed from - 100 yuan to 0 yuan [8]. Lithium Salt Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - China Lithium Carbonate Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Production by Region**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Production by Raw Material Source**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - China Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Demand - Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import**: African lithium ore export policy is the core disturbance factor this week, and the market is worried about tightened import supply [3]. - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged this week [29]. - **Import and Export - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria for both bulk and container transportation remained unchanged this week [29]. - **Import and Export - Lithium Carbonate**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Seasonal Variation**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Lithium Hydroxide**: Not detailed in the content. - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the content. - **Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts increased by 73 to 36,403, with some warehouses showing inventory increases (e.g., 12.41% increase in the inventory of the外运龙泉驿库) [42]. - **Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased by 2.06% to 160,350 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 77.58% to - 1,999.6 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Battery Fundamental Analysis - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Supply - Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the content. - **Demand - Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Lithium Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the content. - **Import and Export - Batteries**: Not detailed in the content. - **Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the content. - **Lithium Battery Recycling**: Not detailed in the content. - **New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the content. - **New Energy Vehicles - Other Important Data**: Not detailed in the content.

Report Title - The lithium carbonate market has strongly broken through, with supply disruptions and inventory destocking resonating - Lithium Carbonate Weekly Report (February 24 - February 27, 2026) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market is in a unilateral upward trend driven by supply disruptions and inventory destocking. The core contradiction lies in the resonance between the short - term contraction expectation of the supply side (raw material policy disruptions, smelter maintenance) and the resilience of the demand side (energy storage support, post - holiday restocking), which drives the price to strongly break through. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the supply pressure that may be brought by the concentrated resumption of production of smelters and the increase in imports in March after the rapid price increase [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures price decreased by 100.00% from 176,040 to 0; the lithium carbonate spot price (electro - carbon) decreased by 100.00% from 174,100 to 0, and the lithium carbonate spot price (industrial carbon) decreased by 100.00% from 171,500 to 0. The prices of other lithium salts also showed a 100.00% decrease [4] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: The weekly changes in the premiums of different raw materials and enterprises have changed. For example, the premium of the pyroxene raw material has increased by 500, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium has increased by 100 [7] 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - **China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Production in Each Production Area**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Production from Each Raw Material Source**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Demand - **Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.3 Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The port lithium ore traders' available inventory decreased by 8.67% week - on - week to 137,000 tons, reflecting the tight supply of imported raw materials. If Zimbabwe's export policy is implemented, it will further affect future imports [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation**: The weekly freight rates of lithium ore transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria in both bulk and container forms decreased by 100.00% [27] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The weekly freight rates of lithium ore transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria in both bulk and container forms decreased by 100.00% [27] - **Lithium Carbonate Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Seasonal Changes in Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.4 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 2,839 tons to around 100,000 tons this week, verifying the tightening supply - demand pattern [2] - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 38,461 to 0, with significant decreases in each warehouse [40] 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - **Lithium Carbonate Cost and Profit**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 16.83% week - on - week to 182,296 yuan/ton, higher than the current spot price, resulting in a theoretical profit of - 8,196 yuan/ton for the externally purchased concentrate route, with strong cost support [2] 3.3 Lithium Battery Fundamentals 3.3.1 Market - **Cathode Material Market**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.2 Supply - **Cathode Material Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.3 Demand - **Cathode Material Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.4 Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Material Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Battery Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - **Ternary Material Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.6 Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.7 New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Other Important Data**: Not detailed in the provided content

1. Report Title and Period - The report is "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report 2026.02.02 - 2026.02.06", focusing on the carbonate lithium market [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a wide - range shock stage after the high - price collapse. The core contradiction lies in the game between the short - term domestic supply contraction expectation and the long - term import increment and inventory accumulation expectation. Pre - holiday capital flight amplifies price fluctuations, and the weakening spot price and high warehouse receipt inventory put pressure on the market, with overall weak sentiment. It is expected that the high - volatility of the market will continue in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices seeking direction in the range of 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and post - holiday import arrivals and downstream resumption of work need to be closely monitored [3] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: Carbonate lithium futures prices dropped 10.31% week - on - week to 132,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade carbonate lithium spot prices fell 13.23% week - on - week to 138,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade carbonate lithium spot prices dropped 13.15% to 136,000 yuan/ton. Hydroxide lithium spot prices also declined, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse - grained) down 6.13% to 145,500 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) down 5.93% to 150,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade down 6.35% to 140,200 yuan/ton [3][5] - **Premium and Discount Changes**: The premium and discount of various raw materials and enterprises have changed. For example, the premium of辉石料 increased by 250 yuan/ton, and that of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. increased by 400 yuan/ton [8] 4.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals 4.2.1 Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 87.14%, but the hydroxide lithium capacity utilization rate decreased 5.41% week - on - week to 35%. Policy disturbances in Jiangxi mica mines and planned overhauls in some lithium salt plants strengthened the market's expectation of supply contraction in February [3] 4.2.2 Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream demand shows structural support, with the operating rate of energy - storage battery cells rising. However, due to the seasonal slowdown during the Spring Festival, the downstream production plan for February is expected to decline month - on - month, and the procurement of high - price raw materials is cautious [3] 4.2.3 Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The export volume from Chile increased significantly in January, and the market expects the import volume in March to reach a new high, which has led to concerns about inventory accumulation during the peak season and suppressed prices [3] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation costs from most African countries remained stable, with only the container transportation cost from Nigeria increasing by 6.67% week - on - week [29] 4.2.4 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased 10.27% week - on - week to 33,777 lots. Warehouses such as COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse and JF Shanghai Warehouse had significant increases, intensifying inventory pressure [3][42] 4.2.5 Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The raw material cost decreased in line with the lithium price. The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate/mica decreased 13.07%/12.32% week - on - week. The profit of the externally purchased lithium mica route shrank 29.8% to 5,830 yuan/ton, while the externally purchased lithium concentrate route remained in a loss state [3] 4.3 Lithium Battery Fundamentals - The report also covers the market conditions, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of lithium battery materials, as well as the production, sales, and other key data of new energy vehicles, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [45]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed significant gains on February 9, with lithium carbonate futures experiencing high volatility, closing at 136,780.0 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.39% [1] Group 2 - On February 9, the market price range for high-quality lithium carbonate was between 135,600 and 139,200 CNY/ton, up by 3,950 CNY from the previous working day. Battery-grade lithium carbonate ranged from 134,200 to 139,200 CNY/ton, increasing by 4,200 CNY, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced between 131,500 and 136,500 CNY/ton, up by 4,500 CNY [2] Group 3 - Supply side analysis indicated that lithium salt plants began maintenance in February, leading to a decrease in production. As of the week ending February 6, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons, a decrease of 825 tons week-on-week, while weekly inventory stood at 105,463 tons, down by 2,019 tons [2] Group 4 - Demand analysis revealed that downstream material manufacturers reported an overall price decline, with phosphate iron lithium prices changing by -11.97%, ternary material prices by -3.69%, hexafluorophosphate lithium by -11.58%, and electrolyte prices by -5.84%. The terminal battery cell market saw a price increase of 0.95% [2] Group 5 - Looking ahead, it is expected that social inventory will continue to decrease, maintaining strong reality. However, the demand for pre-holiday stocking has largely been released, reducing support for the market before the Spring Festival. It is anticipated that lithium carbonate will experience fluctuations and adjustments, with recommendations to wait for stabilization before making low-position investments or employing a dual-sell options strategy [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The futures and spot prices have shown an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, while the basis has weakened. The registered warehouse receipts have generally increased, and the supply has slightly shrunk due to pre - Spring Festival maintenance and tight lithium mica raw materials in Jiangxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 181,520 yuan/ton, up 12,740 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the settlement price was 177,320 yuan/ton, up 8,160 yuan/ton from the previous day [4][6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates increased compared to the previous day, while the price of South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore also increased. The prices of various grades of lithium mica in China showed an upward trend compared to the previous day but a downward trend compared to the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 171,050 yuan/ton, up 6,490 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 161,080 yuan/ton, up 4,460 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate was - 9,970 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials increased. The price of manganese - acid lithium electrolyte remained unchanged, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts display the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][13][17]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [19][20].

Market Overview - On January 14, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 161,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,000 CNY from the previous working day, indicating heightened market observation sentiment [1] - The settlement price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 138,000 CNY/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate futures opened high but closed lower at 161,940 CNY/ton, down 5,920 CNY from the previous working day, with a continued decrease in open interest [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on January 14 showed the following changes: - Lithium concentrate increased from 2,160 CNY to 2,200 CNY, a rise of 40 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 16.05 to 16.15 CNY, an increase of 0.1 CNY [2] - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased from 5.39 to 5.41 CNY, up by 0.02 CNY [2] - Ternary materials rose from 18.9 to 19.4 CNY, an increase of 0.5 CNY [2] Industry Sentiment - There is significant concern regarding the ability of second-tier energy storage companies to withstand rising lithium carbonate prices, with current cost levels around 150,000 CNY [6] - Opinions are divided; some bearish analysts believe rising costs will limit the enthusiasm of energy storage companies, potentially affecting lithium carbonate demand, while bullish analysts argue that even if some companies face losses, it could lead to industry consolidation and reduced price competition, benefiting long-term demand [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the lithium carbonate market will experience wide fluctuations in the short term due to increased risk pressures and a dampened speculative atmosphere [7] - Supply from Chile and Brazil is expected to remain constrained until at least February, and the recovery of certain production sites will take longer [7] - The medium to long-term market trajectory will depend on cost transmission and its impact on energy storage demand in the second half of the year [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate market will experience intensified high - level fluctuations under the divergence between sentiment and fundamentals, and its upward space may be limited by industrial hedging pressure and inventory verification. The core contradiction lies in the game between short - term bullish factors on the supply side (mine policy disturbances and seasonal production reduction expectations of salt lakes) and long - term pressure on the demand side (slowing growth of power batteries). Although news stimuli have pushed prices up rapidly, factors such as high - level futures premium, deteriorating production profits, and inventory accumulation in some sectors may restrict the continuous upward movement of prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Conditions - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The weekly price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose 14.0% to 111,400 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday of 113,500 yuan/ton. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 7.57% to 103,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.63% to 101,550 yuan/ton. The futures premium structure was significant, and the basis widened 326.4% to - 8,400 yuan/ton [2][5] - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The spot prices of different types of lithium hydroxide all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electric carbon - coarse particles) rose 5.33% to 88,900 yuan/ton, (electric carbon - fine powder) increased 5.02% to 94,100 yuan/ton, and (industrial carbon) went up 5.69% to 83,600 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The domestic lithium carbonate production capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, while the lithium hydroxide production capacity utilization rate decreased 2.44% to 40.0% [2] - **Transportation Cost**: The freight of some African lithium ore routes decreased. For example, the container freight from Nigeria dropped 16.67% [2][28] Demand - Demand showed structural differentiation. Energy storage cell production remained high, supporting demand, but the expected growth rate of power battery demand slowed down, and new energy vehicle sales declined month - on - month [2] Inventory - The total exchange warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate increased 3.06% to 15,511 lots. The warehouse receipts of some delivery warehouses, such as Jiangsu Benniu Port, increased 80.0%. The lithium ore inventory of port traders increased 24.76% to 131,000 tons [2][41] Cost and Profit - The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased 4.79% to 110,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of externally purchased lithium mica rose 4.31% to 113,714 yuan/ton. The production profit deteriorated, and the loss of externally purchased concentrate increased 24.08% to - 6,999.9 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Positive Electrode Materials**: The report includes sections on the market conditions, production, and consumption of positive electrode materials, but specific data is not detailed in the content - **Electrolyte**: The report mentions electrolyte price and production, but specific data is not provided - **Lithium - Battery Recycling**: The report has a section on lithium - battery recycling, but specific content is not detailed - **New Energy Vehicles**: The report includes new energy vehicle production, sales, and other important data, but specific details are not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a trend where the main contract is oscillating stronger. The fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and stable high - level demand. The industry inventory is continuously decreasing, and the outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The trading strategy is to trade lightly with a slightly stronger oscillation and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 114,380 yuan/ton, up 2980 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 146,949 hands, up 8070 hands; the position of the main contract is 671,889 hands, up 3060 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 16,411 hands/ton, up 900 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,350 yuan/ton, up 1300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 15,380 yuan/ton, down 1630 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 1320 US dollars; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2450 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. The monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate (daily) is 37,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 346,600 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 167,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 148,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 159,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 40,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales are 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume is 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 113,809 contracts, down 5198; the total holding of put options is 141,148 contracts, up 13,277; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 124.02%, up 16.5735%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.40%, up 0.0170% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In November 2025, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 219,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November, China exported 759 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 209% and a year - on - year increase of 248%. From January to November, the cumulative export was 4378 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.6% [2] - In November 2025, China's spodumene import volume reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of incremental imports, with 425,000 tons imported in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44%, accounting for 58% of the total import [2] - In November 2025, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 3357 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for 87% of the total export volume. In November, China imported 1420 tons of lithium hydroxide, a month - on - month increase of 11% [2] - The resumption of production at Ningde Times' Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine has new progress. On December 19, the Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information publicity for the mining project of the lithium mine [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rebounded, and currently, industry leaders are bullish on the demand and price of lithium carbonate in 2026. The market is conducting long - short trading around the resumption of production at Jiangxi mines, and the exchange has introduced policies to suppress price fluctuations [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to increase, and the supply is restricted. The cost is rising, which forms a support for the price. The price is expected to be between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Route - **Background**: In 2025, due to oversupply, the price of lithium carbonate dropped from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 yuan/ton at the end of June. Then, driven by favorable fundamentals, it climbed to around 100,000 yuan/ton. The market has different views on the future price, so the research was carried out [2] - **Route**: The research route covered Jiujiang, Xinyu, and Yichun, with a total of 7 research samples, including 4 lithium salt enterprises, 1 lithium mine enterprise, 1 battery enterprise, and 1 industry association [3] 3.2 Summary of Enterprise and Industry Research Information 3.2.1 Lithium Salt Enterprises - **J Company**: It extracts lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate from lithium - containing minerals. The planned production capacity is 50,000 tons, with 20,000 tons of flexible production lines already built. The production ratio of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate is 1:1. It uses the causticization route, with over 60% of the ore used to produce lithium hydroxide. The raw materials are mainly from salt lakes and recycling, and the inventory is about one week. The monthly sales volume is 1200 - 1400 tons, and it plans to conduct hedging [4] - **L Company**: It processes lithium salt relying on upstream cooperative mining enterprises. The current production capacity is 40,000 tons, and the current monthly output is 3300 tons. The raw materials are mainly from Hunan, and the price is calculated based on futures and processing fees. It is in a state of full production and full sales, and the price is set according to futures [4][5] - **H Company**: It is one of the earliest companies to extract lithium from mica, with a production capacity of 15,000 tons. It is in full - production, and the raw materials are mainly mica ore and recycled materials. The supply is affected by the market price of lithium carbonate [5] - **T Company**: It engages in lithium salt toll - processing, with a production capacity of 5000 tons. The downstream demand is good, and the production is scheduled until the first half of next year. The processing fee has decreased, and it participates in futures hedging. It estimates that the price of lithium carbonate will reach 150,000 yuan/ton next year [5][6] 3.2.2 Lithium Mine Enterprise - **Z Company**: The mine has an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate. After the technological transformation at the end of this year, the corresponding production capacity of lithium fluoride and lithium carbonate will be 72,000 tons. The current production capacity is about 60,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 50,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026. It also produces rubidium and cesium salts, with a profit margin of over 50%. It has participated in futures hedging of several thousand tons [7] 3.2.3 Battery Enterprise - **D Company**: It focuses on high - end semi - solid polymer small - power lithium - ion batteries, with products used in drones and two - wheeled vehicles. The downstream order demand is strong, and the prices of raw materials such as electrolyte, diaphragm, and cathode materials are rising. It believes that the price of lithium carbonate will be above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the demand for small - power batteries will be huge [8][9] 3.2.4 Industry Association - **F Branch**: In November 2025, the global supply of lithium carbonate was about 115,000 tons, with a demand of 128,000 tons, a gap of 13,000 tons. The A - share lithium mining sector has room for valuation repair. The whole - industry chain inventory is at a historical low, with strong demand resilience and huge restocking demand [10] - **Demand**: In 2026, the adjustment of the purchase tax exemption policy will drive the demand for new energy vehicles, and the breakthrough in all - solid - state battery technology will open up the application space for lithium resources. The demand for lithium carbonate in the energy storage field is increasing [11] - **Supply**: The resumption of production of a core lithium mine in Jiangxi is delayed, the production capacity and output of lithium mica enterprises in Yichun have decreased, and the supply expansion of overseas lithium resources is restricted [11][12] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium carbonate is rising, and 80,000 yuan/ton is the critical line for the restart of high - cost production capacity [12] - **2026 Expectation**: The optimistic expectation is that the demand growth rate is 30 - 40%, and the price is expected to exceed 150,000 yuan/ton. The neutral expectation is that the price will be maintained at 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Summary of Lithium Salt Research - **Supply and Demand**: The prices of the whole lithium carbonate industry chain are rising, and enterprises generally believe that the price will be above 100,000 yuan/ton next year. The leading lithium salt enterprises in Yichun are in a state of full production and full sales, while non - leading enterprises are in a state of suspension [13] - **Quotation**: The sales prices of lithium ore, recycled materials, and lithium carbonate are basically linked to the market price of lithium carbonate plus or minus the processing fee [14] - **Resumption of Production**: The Jiuxiaowo mine is still shut down, and the earliest resumption of production will be at the end of December or early next year. The actual monthly supply of lithium carbonate is about 7000 tons [14] - **Cost**: The cost of lithium mica is equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of the Jiuxiaowo mine is expected to be 80,000 yuan/ton [14] - **Future Supply and Demand and Price**: It is expected that in 2026, the global supply of lithium carbonate will be 2.089 million tons, and the demand will be 2.004 million tons, with a static surplus of 85,000 tons. Considering the restocking demand, the supply - demand structure will be in short supply, and the price is likely to fluctuate between 100,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Market Soars and Then Declines, with Intensified Capital Gaming in the Context of Strong Supply and Demand - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report from October 27 - 31, 2025" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate between 80,000 - 84,000 yuan per ton next week, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of warrant cancellations. The current market is in a high - level oscillation stage. The core contradiction lies in the game between the expectation of new capacity release and strong demand. The short - term pattern of strong supply and demand will continue, but capital sentiment fluctuations will intensify price oscillations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The weekly increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 5.29% to 83,600 yuan per ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive to 2,820 yuan per ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium also rose 5.39% to 82,150 yuan per ton, with a stable price difference of 1,450 yuan per ton between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The weekly increase of carbonate lithium futures was 5.05%, from 75,700 yuan to 79,520 yuan. The arrival price of battery - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.82% to 79,400 yuan, and the spot price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased by 4.77% to 77,950 yuan. The prices of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged [2][4] - **Lithium Salt Premium Changes**: The weekly premium changes of different raw materials and enterprises for lithium carbonate were significant. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 150 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Industry increased by 100 yuan [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Carbonate Lithium Production**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained at 74.39%. Although new production lines were put into operation, the actual increase was limited. The production of different regions and raw material sources is also an important part of the supply side [2] - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Downstream Consumption**: The production of energy - storage cells increased by 5% week - on - week to 52GWh, the weekly production of ternary materials reached 18,568 tons, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60%, showing strong demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The shipping cost of lithium ore imports was stable with a slight increase. The shipping cost of the Nigerian route increased by 7.14% week - on - week. In September, the import volume decreased by 10% month - on - month, indicating tight overseas supply [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation and Cost**: The shipping costs from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other countries remained unchanged, while those from Nigeria decreased. For example, the bulk shipping cost from Nigeria decreased by 7.14% [27] - **Carbonate Lithium and Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Social Inventory**: The warrant inventory decreased by 3.76% week - on - week to 27,621 lots, and the available inventory of lithium ore increased by 9.09% to 12,000 tons, with limited overall inventory pressure [2] - **Carbonate Lithium Warrants**: The total number of carbonate lithium warrants decreased by 1,987 lots week - on - week, from 30,686 lots to 28,699 lots [40] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production profit of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 82.52% week - on - week to 9,339 yuan per ton, while the lithium mica route still had a loss of 7,681 yuan per ton, and cost differentiation intensified industry reshuffle [2] Lithium Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Materials Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Materials Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium Battery Materials and Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium Battery Recycling - Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - **Production and Sales**: Not detailed in the provided content