若说过去十年是移动互联网重塑生活的黄金期，未来十年，自动驾驶必将成为改写人类出行逻辑的核心 力量。 从科技巨头到传统车企，再到资本市场的敏锐玩家，都清楚这不仅是技术革新，更是对万亿级市场蛋糕 的激烈角逐。 如今FSDV12已实现"端到端决策"，无需依赖预设规则，直接输出驾驶指令，复杂场景应对能力显著提 升。但短板也突出：暴雨、大雾、强光等场景下，摄像头感知精度易受影响。 技术路线之争：两条路径的较量与进化 如今试驾主流新能源车，L2+级辅助驾驶已不新鲜：自动跟车、车道保持、高速领航，部分车型甚至能 实现城市道路自主变道。 2023年起，城市NOA快速落地，标志着自动驾驶从"简单高速场景"迈向"复杂城市环境"，但这只是行业 序幕。 按国际汽车工程师学会（SAE）标准，自动驾驶分L0至L5六级。目前量产车型多处于L2向L3过渡阶 段，真正的"无人驾驶"（L4/L5）仍局限于特定场景——如Waymo在旧金山的全无人出租车、封闭园区 的自动驾驶物流车。 即便头部企业有局部突破，L4级大规模落地仍面临技术可靠性、法规适配性与成本控制三重考验，而 行业在技术路线选择上已形成两大阵营： 1.纯视觉派：特斯拉的"数据驱动"之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The next decade will see autonomous driving as a core force reshaping human mobility, with significant competition for a trillion-dollar market among tech giants, traditional automakers, and capital market players [2] Group 1: Technological Evolution - The transition from "assisted driving" to "fully autonomous driving" is a critical turning point, with the race to achieve large-scale commercial deployment of Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving [2][4] - Current mass-produced vehicles are mostly transitioning from Level 2 (L2) to Level 3 (L3), while true "driverless" capabilities (L4/L5) are still limited to specific scenarios [5] - Two main technological paths have emerged: the "pure vision" approach led by Tesla, which relies on cameras and AI algorithms, and the "multi-sensor fusion" approach adopted by companies like Waymo and Huawei, which emphasizes safety through redundancy [6][7] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The autonomous driving ecosystem can be broken down into four layers, each presenting key investment opportunities: 1. Perception Layer: Comprising sensors like cameras and LiDAR, with companies like Hesai and Suoteng Ju Chuang achieving near-international performance levels [7] 2. Decision Layer: Involves chips and algorithms for planning, with NVIDIA's DRIVE Orin being a preferred choice for L4 solutions [8] 3. Execution Layer: Focuses on components that translate decisions into actions, with companies like Bosch and Continental leading in mass production of drive-by-wire systems [10] 4. Support Layer: Encompasses infrastructure like 5G and cloud computing, crucial for real-time vehicle connectivity and data processing [11] Group 3: Investment Landscape - The autonomous driving industry is on the brink of a breakthrough, with significant advancements in AI models enhancing decision-making capabilities [15] - Investment opportunities can be categorized into four segments: 1. Vehicle and solution providers (e.g., Tesla, Waymo) with high potential returns but also high risks [16] 2. Key technology suppliers (e.g., NVIDIA, Horizon Robotics) with more stable business models [16] 3. Infrastructure and service providers (e.g., Baidu Maps, Tencent) with clearer profit models [16] 4. Application and operation service providers focusing on specific commercial scenarios [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The commercialization of autonomous driving is expected to accelerate, with 2025 potentially being a pivotal year [18] - The industry faces challenges not only in technology but also in societal acceptance, legal frameworks, and business models [18]