投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。经历短期大幅回调以后，油市利空情绪得到释放。由于中东地缘风险依然存在，且 北半球处在冬季用油旺季阶段，偏多氛 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The current market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with clear trends across different sectors and distinct product attributes [2] Group 2: Key Bullish and Bearish Products - Bullish products include crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), which show steady increases in positions, reflecting recognition of energy transition and shipping recovery [3] - Bearish products include rubber (RU), which has seen a notable increase in short positions, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [3] Group 3: Position Changes and Capital Movements - In the energy and chemical sector, positions in crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are rising, while rubber (RU) shows significant short position increases, suggesting a bearish outlook [4] - In the agricultural sector, palm oil (P) sees rising positions with active bullish capital involvement, while live hogs (LH) have a large position despite a bearish structure, indicating ongoing divergence [4] Group 4: Core Trading Logic and Opportunity Identification - For stock indices, small-cap stocks are favored, with the market state being "Long" for both the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures, supported by healthy technical indicators [5][6] - Iron ore (I) is marked as "Great-Long-Now," indicating strong bullish signals within the black series [6] - Opportunities include arbitrage strategies between rebar (RB) and hot-rolled coil (HC), or a long position in iron ore [5][6] Group 5: Key Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend strategies favoring IC, IM, I, P, and SC due to strong curve structures and fundamental support [8] - Trend strategies for RU, LH, and M are recommended as bearish due to weak supply-demand dynamics [8] - Arbitrage strategies between palm oil (P) and soybean meal (M) are suggested, capitalizing on the strength of oils over feeds [8] Group 6: Key Products to Monitor - Focus on the performance of small-cap stocks (IC/IM) and the supply dynamics of iron ore (I) [13] - Monitor the crude oil supply-demand balance (SC/LU) and the continuation of the bearish trend in rubber (RU) [13] - Keep an eye on palm oil (P) for ongoing biodiesel demand and the progress of hog destocking (LH) [13]