生猪期货(LH)
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申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260309
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 05:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall pig market remains weak. The northern market fluctuates, with some low - price areas testing the 10 - yuan mark. Group enterprises mainly stabilize prices and wait - and - see, but supply is abundant. In the south, pig prices decline slightly, with group companies resuming normal sales, sufficient market supply, weak terminal consumption, poor white - strip sales, and lack of positive support. In the short term, the pressure of pig出栏 is the dominant factor, and it is expected that today's national pig prices will continue to bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13760, 10150, 11160, 12180, 13140, and 13380 respectively, with changes of - 15, - 30, 20, - 25, - 80, and - 110 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 0.29%, 0.18%, - 0.20%, - 0.61%, and - 0.82% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 5776, 1, 81566, 14998, 20888, and 9979 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 12868, 178, 173194, 59038, 54077, and 35141 respectively, with changes of 2074, - 7, 4967, 1997, 2920, and 1285 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 3610, - 1010, - 1020, - 960, - 240, and - 380 respectively, compared to the previous values of 3595, - 960, - 1065, - 1015, - 270, and - 285 [2] Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.53, 10.17, 10.13, 10.58, 9.97, and 10.07 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 0.11, - 20.34, - 0.14, - 0.23, - 0.1, and - 0.03 compared to the previous day [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1150 on the previous day, with no change compared to the day before [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260225
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-25 01:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If there is no significant boost in the demand side, pig prices may continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13145, 10355, 11265, 12085, 13080, and 13040 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the changes were 5, -385, -235, -135, -60, and -25, with corresponding changes of 0.04%, -3.58%, -2.04%, -1.10%, -0.46%, and -0.19% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 735, 15726, 78533, 9582, 6360, and 2027 respectively, and the open interests were 3009, 28012, 152533, 51114, 38889, and 24007. The changes in open interest were 336, -2065, 15873, 1696, 1867, and 454 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current values of the spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2790, -910, -820, -995, 40, and -105 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2400, -760, -720, -920, 75, and -75 [2] Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 11.32, 11.47, 11.2, 11.74, 11.27, and 10.92 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the changes were -1.17, -22.77, -0.09, 0.07, -0.47, and -0.58 [2] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity and Change**: The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 1156, with an increase of 129 compared to two days ago [2] Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The output of key breeding companies reached 219,300 heads, a month - on - month increase of 8.15%. The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises was 98,800 heads, a month - on - month increase of 20.89%, indicating a concentrated release of supply pressure [3] - **Profit Situation**: The average loss per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode was 135.59 yuan, and the loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets was 71.54 yuan [3]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260211
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 01:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hog futures market continues to operate weakly, with the main contract LH2605 closing at 11,470 yuan/ton, showing an intraday decline of 0.48%. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the oversupply on the spot side. With large - scale farms in the north reducing prices for slaughter, the average price of live hogs has dropped. Although terminal consumption has slightly recovered, the incremental capacity of slaughtering enterprises is limited, unable to bear the concentrated slaughter pressure from the breeding side. In the short term, the spot price is expected to remain under pressure and continue to drag down the futures market sentiment, maintaining a volatile and bearish pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Information**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts are 13,205, 10,745, 11,470, 12,160, 13,115, and 13,030 respectively. The price changes are 5, 100, - 95, 30, 20, and 20, with corresponding price change rates of 0.04%, 0.94%, - 0.82%, 0.25%, 0.15%, and 0.15% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes are 291, 30,850, 46,228, 6,147, 3,382, and 1,018 respectively. The open interests are 2,488, 51,980, 149,549, 50,025, 38,008, and 24,047 respectively. The changes in open interests are 116, - 8,063, 1,842, - 99, 516, and 259 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 2,460, - 725, - 690, - 955, 85, and - 175 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,555, - 920, - 565, - 965, 85, and - 190 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 11.82, 10.8, 11.45, 11.47, 11.47, and 11.69 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes are - 0.27, - 21.69, - 0.12, - 0.07, - 0.1, and - 0.12 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts is 727, with no change [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260210
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 01:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pig market shows a trend of joint decline in futures and spot prices. The main contract LH2605 closed down 0.69%. The average ex - farm price of live pigs in the spot market also declined slightly. Due to the approaching of the Minor New Year, the sales window for farmers is narrowing, leading to a loosening of the pressure - holding sentiment and a sharp increase in market supply pressure. Although the slaughtering rate of downstream slaughtering enterprises has increased, it is still difficult to digest the supply pressure, causing the transaction price to decline. The market presents a game pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, but the supply pressure is more prominent" in the short term. It is expected that pig prices may remain weakly stable, and the key to the subsequent market lies in whether the slaughter sentiment of farmers continues and whether the slaughtering rate of slaughtering enterprises can perform more strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13200, 10645, 11565, 12130, 13095, and 13010 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 0, - 215, - 60, - 65, - 5, and - 15, with corresponding price change rates of 0.00%, - 1.98%, - 0.52%, - 0.53%, - 0.04%, and - 0.12% [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 467, 33719, 70539, 7310, 5914, and 1538 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 2372, 60043, 147707, 50124, 37492, and 23788 respectively, with changes of 309, - 5945, 4386, 22, 798, and 311 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of "January - March", "March - May", "May - July", "July - September", "September - November", and "November - January" are 2555, - 920, - 565, - 965, 85, and - 190 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2340, - 765, - 570, - 905, 75, and - 175 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 12.09, 10.89, 11.57, 11.54, 11.57, and 11.81 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are - 0.19, - 22.43, - 0.27, - 0.2, - 0.23, and - 0.57 [2]. Warehouse Receipts The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 727, an increase of 80 compared with two days ago [2].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260209
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 01:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This weekend, the national pig price showed a weak and volatile trend. The north continued to be weak due to supply pressure, while the south showed a mixed trend of stability and decline supported by regional price differences. As the Minor New Year approaches, terminal stocking has limited support for prices, and the market pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. In the short term, the resistance sentiment of the breeding side and the price - pressing mentality of slaughtering enterprises will continue to compete. The pig price in the north may adjust slightly, and the decline in the south may narrow due to active external sales, but overall, there is a lack of rebound momentum. It is expected that the pig price will remain weak before the Spring Festival [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13,200, 10,860, 11,625, 12,195, 13,100, and 13,025 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the prices decreased by 125, 135, 60, 50, 35, and 5, with corresponding declines of - 0.94%, - 1.23%, - 0.51%, - 0.41%, - 0.27%, and - 0.04% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 507, 28,725, 48,568, 4,422, 3,814, and 2,121 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests were 2,063, 65,988, 143,321, 50,102, 36,694, and 23,477 respectively. The changes in open interest were 267, - 8,876, - 1,148, - 154, - 481, and 412 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,340, - 765, - 570, - 905, 75, and - 175 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,330, - 690, - 560, - 890, 105, and - 295 [2] Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.28, 11.54, 11.84, 11.74, 11.8, and 12.38 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous value, the changes were - 0.08, - 23.08, - 0.04, - 0.16, - 0.04, and 0.24 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The quantity of warehouse receipts was 647 both the previous day and two days ago, with no change [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260205
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 02:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of live hog futures, LH2605, closed up at 1,1735 yuan/ton, while the spot market continued to be weak, with the average ex-farm price of ternary live hogs in the country falling to 12.08 yuan/kg, and the market bearish sentiment was obvious. The supply pressure remained and the demand was insufficient, the profit level shrank significantly, and the industry was under obvious pressure. In the short term, the market sentiment was weak, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of retail farmers and the adjustment plans of group enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,355 yuan, 11,150 yuan, 11,735 yuan, 12,295 yuan, 13,210 yuan, and 13,130 yuan respectively, with price changes of 100 yuan, -10 yuan, 135 yuan, 125 yuan, 155 yuan, and 170 yuan, and price change rates of 0.75%, -0.09%, 1.16%, 1.03%, 1.19%, and 1.31% respectively. The trading volumes were 525, 29,122, 70,275, 7,444, 8,803, and 3,263 respectively, and the open interests were 1,783, 83,841, 145,975, 50,455, 37,066, and 22,210 respectively, with changes in open interests of 252, -8,400, 8,354, 320, 554, and 1,213 respectively [2] - The current spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,205 yuan, -585 yuan, -560 yuan, -915 yuan, 80 yuan, and -225 yuan respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,095 yuan, -440 yuan, -570 yuan, -885 yuan, 95 yuan, and -295 yuan respectively [2] Spot Market - The current spot prices of live hogs in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.22 yuan/kg, 11.77 yuan/kg, 12.1 yuan/kg, 12.15 yuan/kg, 12.1 yuan/kg, and 12.23 yuan/kg respectively, with price changes of -0.32 yuan, -0.2363 yuan, -0.26 yuan, -0.26 yuan, -0.38 yuan, and -0.36 yuan respectively compared with the previous values [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 647, an increase of 547 compared with the day before the previous day [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:生猪(LH)-20260203
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 02:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Northern pig prices rebounded with varying increases. At the beginning of the month, some breeding enterprises reduced their slaughter volume, and after consecutive price cuts, some social pig sources were reluctant to sell, supporting the stop - fall and rebound of pig prices. The increment trend at the slaughter end is not obvious, with some stable and some increasing. Next week will enter the stage of increasing supply and demand at the end of the year, and the pig price trend still needs continuous attention [2]. - In the southern market, prices showed different performances, mostly stabilizing after a decline and some slightly rising. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter rhythm of group enterprises slowed down compared with the previous period, and the supply pressure temporarily decreased. However, the slaughter end reported that the current order volume did not increase significantly, and in some markets, demand decreased due to people returning to their hometowns. Continue to pay attention to the slaughter volume of enterprises and consumption [4]. Group 3: Summary of Futures Market Futures Price - The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13350, 11220, 11635, 12230, 13170, and 13090 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 20, 0, - 15, - 115, - 135, and - 145 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.15%, 0.00%, - 0.13%, - 0.93%, - 1.01%, and - 1.10% [2]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volumes of futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 617, 52010, 46731, 8319, 8159, and 3007 respectively. The open interests were 1431, 95950, 130488, 48562, 34765, and 19824 respectively. The changes in open interests were 200, - 5767, 1355, 1538, 46, and 596 respectively [2]. Price Spreads - The current price spreads of "January - March", "March - May", "May - July", "July - September", "September - November", and "November - January" were 2130, - 415, - 595, - 940, 80, and - 260 respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by - 20, 15, 100, 20, 10, and - 125 respectively [2]. Group 4: Summary of Spot Market Spot Prices - The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.89, 11.94, 12.3, 12.4, 12.43, and 12.85 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by 0.41, - 23.86, 0.27, 0.53, 0.49, and 0.42 respectively [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 0, and two days ago it was 426, with a decrease of 426 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260202
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In recent days, the prices of standard pigs in many places have been continuously weakening. However, retail farmers still have a certain sentiment of reluctance to sell large pigs, and the prices of large pigs have not shown the same downward adjustment as standard pigs, resulting in an expansion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs. In the short term, the supply reduction on the supply side has weak resistance, and the short - term significant increase in demand is relatively weak. Therefore, it is expected that the short - term price will still be weakly adjusted under the drag of strong supply and weak demand [3] Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13345, 11165, 11640, 12305, 13235, and 13220 respectively. The price changes were 45, - 105, - 55, - 65, - 45, and - 65, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.34%, - 0.93%, - 0.47%, - 0.53%, - 0.34%, and - 0.49% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 789, 55651, 29137, 4287, 3036, and 2837 respectively, and the open interests were 1133, 118654, 124749, 46666, 34190, and 19262 respectively. The changes in open interest were 144, - 2569, 5906, 299, - 126, and 470 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2180, - 475, - 665, - 930, 15, and - 125 respectively, compared with previous values of 2030, - 425, - 675, - 910, - 5, and - 15 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.71, 12.27, 12.23, 12, 12.07, and 12.73 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.23, - 0.2474, - 0.26, - 0.4, - 0.12, and - 0.11 compared to the previous values [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 426 on the previous day, with no change compared to two days ago [2]
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260128
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 01:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Most markets have relatively sufficient supply from the breeding side, and slaughtering enterprises' procurement is relatively smooth with sufficient planned purchases. The pig price is likely to have a narrow adjustment tomorrow [2]. - Affected by the support of previous piglet replenishment, piglet prices continued to rise this week, with an increase ranging from 10 - 30 yuan per head. However, as prices continue to rise, the enthusiasm for purchasing high - priced piglets has weakened, orders have shrunk to some extent, and the later increase in piglet prices may narrow [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months (January, March, May, July, September, November) were 12,690, 11,285, 11,695, 12,375, 13,320, and 13,305 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 880, - 180, - 65, - 50, - 45, - 30, with corresponding percentage changes of 7.45%, - 1.57%, - 0.55%, - 0.40%, - 0.34%, - 0.22% [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for different contract months were 21, 69,670, 33,228, 6,532, 4,831, 1,779 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests for different contract months were 0, 127,642, 115,715, 46,583, 33,928, 18,404 respectively, with changes of - 17, - 5,752, 1,816, 383, - 371, 548 [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads between different contract months (January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, November - January) were 1,405, - 410, - 680, - 945, 15, 615 respectively, compared with previous values of 345, - 295, - 665, - 940, 30, 1,525 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in different regions (Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning) were 13.18, 12.67, 12.68, 12.87, 12.38, 12.84 yuan per ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes were - 0.06, - 0.1, - 0.08, - 0.36, - 0.09, - 0.07 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 426, a decrease of 7 compared with two days ago [2].
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260126
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:43
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the daily strategy of Shenwan Futures' hog (LH) variety [1] Group 2: Futures Market Information - The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November are 12000, 11565, 11850, 12470, 13390, and 13360 respectively [2] - The closing prices two days ago for corresponding months are 11900, 11600, 11895, 12555, 13460, and 13430 [2] - The price changes are 100, -35, -45, -85, -70, -70, and the price change rates are 0.84%, -0.30%, -0.38%, -0.68%, -0.52%, -0.52% respectively [2] - The trading volumes are 5, 42940, 18255, 4227, 4257, 1202 [2] - The open interests are 34, 131413, 108344, 45736, 34051, 17829, with the changes of -15, -4037, 1559, 692, -385, 357 [2] - The current spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, November - January are 435, -285, -620, -920, 30, 1360, and the previous spreads are 300, -295, -660, -905, 30, 1530 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Information - The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 13.2, 12.71, 12.59, 13.2, 12.2, 13.05 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The previous spot prices are 13.13, 12.71, 12.78, 13.4, 12.37, 12.85 yuan/ton [2] - The price changes are 0.07, -25.42, -0.19, -0.2, -0.17, 0.2 [2] Group 4: Warehouse Receipt Information - The number of warehouse receipts is 433, with no change [2] Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy - In the northern market, prices were strong first and then weak over the weekend. Group prices rose significantly on Saturday, but it's difficult to maintain high levels. Retailers had low enthusiasm, and short - term supply was mainly affected by group sales and market demand [3] - In the southern market, prices followed the north. Southern enterprises mostly sold hogs at a normal pace at the end of the month. Consumption demand was limited, and slaughter volume was stable. Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, but the attitude of small - scale farmers needs attention [3]