Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is underway, with concerns about the impact of recent personnel changes on interest rate decisions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [1] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.07%, while Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up nearly 1.8% [1] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve meeting, there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, estimated at 96%, with further cuts in October and December also likely at over 70% [4] - International gold prices surged, with London spot gold prices breaking the $3,700 per ounce mark, and New York December gold futures closing at $3,725.1 per ounce, up 0.16% [4] Group 3 - Analysts expect a larger-than-expected decrease in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, supported by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, which bolstered international oil prices [7] - New York light crude oil futures closed at $64.52 per barrel, up 1.93%, while November Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.47 per barrel, up 1.53% [7] Group 4 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, driven by strong online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales, likely influenced by back-to-school shopping [10] - Despite economic challenges, strong consumer spending may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [10] Group 5 - European stock indices fell as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with banking stocks under pressure [12] - The UK's unemployment rate remained high, and average wage growth showed a decline, raising concerns among investors and contributing to the downward trend in European indices, with the FTSE 100 down 0.88%, CAC40 down 1%, and DAX down 1.77% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The main reason is the intensification of Middle East geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract rose 1.10% to 488.9 yuan/barrel in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Middle East geopolitical risks have re - emerged. On Monday afternoon, there were reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked an Israeli oil tanker as retaliation for the Israeli air strikes on Yemeni Houthi officials. The Yemeni Houthi rebels also emphasized that they would escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel in the future, which increased the expectation of Middle East geopolitical conflict risks and led to a recovery in crude oil premiums [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and oscillating trend. Despite the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the contract showed a moderately strong performance in the night session on Friday, and is likely to continue this trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate with a moderately strong bias [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year as demand growth is slow and supply is surging, even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories are expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is receding. As the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rises, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a moderately strong and oscillating trend in the night session on Friday, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.39% to 492.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a bullish bias" respectively, and it is expected to run with a bullish bias [1]. - After the release of the previous bearish sentiment, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract stopped falling and stabilized on the night session of Monday this week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Time - cycle Explanation**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. The distinction of "oscillation with a bullish/ bearish bias" only applies to the intraday view [1][4]. - **Price Calculation Rule**: For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - **Fluctuation Classification**: A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bearish bias", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has been given back [5].

Group 1 - The main contract for crude oil futures at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest [1] - The main contract 2508 settled at 518.2 yuan, down 0.92% or 4.8 yuan, with a trading volume of 119,289 lots and open interest of 17,930 lots, reflecting a reduction of 2,979 lots in daily open interest [1] - Overnight, WTI crude oil futures for the August contract fell by 2.1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.49% to 527.5 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory but bullish trend on Wednesday [5]. Core Logic - The macro - atmosphere is bullish, with the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus, the 24% suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures will be extended as scheduled, improving the macro - factor and boosting the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - US President Trump's disappointment with Russian President Putin and shortening of the deadline for Putin have enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The geopolitical risks and improved macro - factors have led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market, causing the oil price to jump. The domestic crude oil closed up 2.06% to 515.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday this week, and it is expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and slightly bullish, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and slightly bullish [1][5]. B. Core Logic - Geopolitical risks have emerged, and the geopolitical factor is that the US President Trump's remarks about being disappointed with Russian President Putin and shortening the deadline became the focus of the crude oil futures market, causing the oil price to jump [1][5]. - Macro - factors have improved. The US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, which led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market [5].

Group 1 - Lockheed Martin (LMT) maintains a gain of over 1% [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose more than 2.5%, reaching a high of $67.06, the highest intraday level since July 18 [1] - Reports indicate that the U.S. may have deployed nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time since 2008 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and slightly stronger respectively [1][5]. - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Although 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of increased production is gradually being digested, and the room for further production expansion in the future is limited. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly stronger. The reference view is a strong operation, and the core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and crude oil is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a strong operation. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Despite the planned production increase in August, the negative impact is being digested, and future production expansion space is limited. On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices were oscillatory and slightly weaker. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.55% at 503.8 yuan per barrel, and is expected to be oscillatory and stable on Wednesday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of a slight upward consolidation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.41% to 513.2 yuan/barrel on the night of last Friday [5]. Market Logic - Although eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, as the negative impact of increased production is digested and the original production - increase plan of oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion in the future is limited [5].