品种晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-25 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 晨会纪要 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-08-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 利空情绪消化，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.49% to 527.5 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory but bullish trend on Wednesday [5]. Core Logic - The macro - atmosphere is bullish, with the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus, the 24% suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures will be extended as scheduled, improving the macro - factor and boosting the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - US President Trump's disappointment with Russian President Putin and shortening of the deadline for Putin have enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The geopolitical risks and improved macro - factors have led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market, causing the oil price to jump. The domestic crude oil closed up 2.06% to 515.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday this week, and it is expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and slightly bullish, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and slightly bullish [1][5]. B. Core Logic - Geopolitical risks have emerged, and the geopolitical factor is that the US President Trump's remarks about being disappointed with Russian President Putin and shortening the deadline became the focus of the crude oil futures market, causing the oil price to jump [1][5]. - Macro - factors have improved. The US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, which led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and slightly stronger respectively [1][5]. - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Although 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of increased production is gradually being digested, and the room for further production expansion in the future is limited. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly stronger. The reference view is a strong operation, and the core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and crude oil is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a strong operation. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Despite the planned production increase in August, the negative impact is being digested, and future production expansion space is limited. On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices were oscillatory and slightly weaker. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.55% at 503.8 yuan per barrel, and is expected to be oscillatory and stable on Wednesday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of a slight upward consolidation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.41% to 513.2 yuan/barrel on the night of last Friday [5]. Market Logic - Although eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, as the negative impact of increased production is digested and the original production - increase plan of oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion in the future is limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways to the downside, with an overall outlook of weakening. The weakening geopolitical factors lead to the decline of the premium of crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Performance - On Monday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices dropped significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract fell 5.65% to 537.7 yuan/barrel [5] Core Logic - US President Trump's comments and Iran's non - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz made investors adjust their expectations, believing that the impact of Middle East geopolitical factors on oil prices will not intensify, and the geopolitical premium will decline further [5] Outlook - Against the backdrop of weakening geopolitical factors, it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain a sideways - to - weak trend on Tuesday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the recent Israel-Iran conflict, compares it with the two conflicts in 2024, and points out that the intensity of this round of conflict may exceed that of 2024. It also proposes three possible development paths and corresponding coping strategies [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Geopolitical Situation Review - On June 9, Iran rejected the US "Iran Nuclear Deal" and planned to submit its own proposal to the US through Oman [12]. - On June 10, the US and Iran were expected to hold the sixth - round of negotiations over the weekend. Iran warned that if attacked by Israel, it would target Israel's secret nuclear facilities [13]. - On June 11, Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US bases in the Middle East if the negotiation failed [14][15]. - On June 12, US non - essential personnel and their families in Kuwait, Bahrain and the US embassy in Iraq prepared to evacuate. The possibility of the sixth - round of US - Iran negotiations decreased [15]. - On June 13, Israel launched an air strike on Iran, named "Lion's Strength", and declared a national special emergency. Iran reported possible casualties of important leaders and an attack on its nuclear facility [17]. Past Israel - Iran Conflicts Reference - In April 2024, both sides carried out mutual air strikes but avoided attacking nuclear facilities. The oil price rose about 6% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [20][21]. - In October 2024, there were limited air strikes, and both sides remained relatively restrained. The oil price rose about 13% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [26][27]. Future Development Possibilities and Coping Strategies - **Conflict Intensity Comparison**: This conflict may be more intense than those in 2024 due to possible casualties of important Iranian leaders, direct attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the unclear US attitude. The Brent crude oil has risen about 18% from the low to the high in the past three trading days [28]. - **Possible Development Paths**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: If Iran responds with restraint and the US pressures Israel again, the oil price may have reached its peak [28]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: If Iran retaliates against Israel's nuclear facilities and the US supports Israel's counter - attack, the oil price may reach the range of $85 - 90 [28]. - A full - scale war: If Iran's retaliation is severe and involves Israel and the US, and the US loses control of the situation, the oil price may rise above $100 in the short term [28]. - **Coping Strategies**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: Close all double - bought options and consider selling call options [33]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: Partially close double - bought options and retain the remaining part to monitor the intensity [33]. - A full - scale war: Close put options, increase call option positions or sell put options [33]. - Key observation points include Iran's counter - attack time and intensity, whether the US - Iran negotiation will continue over the weekend, and the US stance [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday trend of crude oil is oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract closed slightly lower by 1.21% to 456.9 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the crude oil demand outlook is weak. The bearish macro - atmosphere has outweighed the bullish support from the renewed chaos in the Middle East geopolitical situation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias. The main reason is the prominent geopolitical risks [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Outlook - The crude oil 2507 contract has a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, with the intraday being oscillation with a slight upward bias and a reference view of running strongly [1] - Although the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract closed 1.09% lower at 463.1 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night, the retracement space is limited, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Thursday [5] Driving Logic - On the one hand, Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress, and macro - factors have turned optimistic. On the other hand, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production increases, and the demand for crude oil is expected to be weak [5] - The Middle East situation has become chaotic again. Yemen's Houthi rebels have imposed a missile blockade on Israeli ports, and the Chinese embassy has issued an evacuation warning. Israel may face attacks from multiple countries, leading to a resurgence of geopolitical risks and an increase in crude oil premiums [5]