Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 0.82% lower at 16,345 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 55 yuan/ton. With the approaching of a new round of rubber - tapping period, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating downward, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 3,373 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 3,172 yuan/ton, closing 4.69% lower at 3,229 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 271 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks, methanol gave back part of its premium, and it is expected that the methanol futures will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 766.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 725.0 yuan/barrel, closing 2.94% lower at 740.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Iran semi - blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Iran attacked each other. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons or 0.85%. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [8]. - As of March 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8%. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a 52.4% year - on - year increase in February [9]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.66%, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.99%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0717 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 244,800 tons compared with 1.8269 million tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 34.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.66%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 532 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 606 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 755,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 219,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,300 tons. As of the week of March 26, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 107,200 tons compared with 327,800 tons in the same period of the previous year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period of the previous year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.657 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 83,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 456.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.926 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 22.558 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 30.945 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.421 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 92.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.9 percentage points [13]. - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 223,620 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,923 contracts and a significant increase of 84,511 contracts or 60.75% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 24, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 315,830 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 12,874 contracts and a significant increase of 154,436 contracts or 95.69% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,350 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 16,345 yuan/ton | - 195 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | + 195 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,560 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | 3,229 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | + 331 yuan/ton | + 90 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 776.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 740.6 yuan/barrel | - 22.9 yuan/barrel | + 35.9 yuan/barrel | + 22.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price closed down 2.51% to 1,6090 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 60 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is predicted that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strongly rising, and closing significantly higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 3,287 yuan/ton and a minimum of 3,060 yuan/ton, and closed up 8.64% to 3,182 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 247 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol continued to rise, and it is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a strongly fluctuating trend in the future [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the 2605 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strongly rising, and closing significantly higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 823.0 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 776.3 yuan/barrel, and closed up 8.48% to 814.9 yuan/barrel. As Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and the US and Iran attack each other's oil production facilities, geopolitical risks have increased again, and the premium of crude oil has rebounded. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price may maintain a strongly fluctuating trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons or 0.42% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse for natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points [9]. - As of March 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. The production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has basically returned to the normal level, which supports the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. Driven by the price increase expectation, the domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises were active, and the inventory reduction rhythm accelerated; the domestic and foreign sales of semi - steel tire enterprises were relatively stable, and the overall sales performance was relatively average. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next period. Due to the uncertainties in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, there are still export resistances in some regions of tire enterprises. Enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of domestic and foreign sales according to their own order situations, and there is a possibility of a slight decline [10]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a year - on - year increase of 52.4% in February [10]. - In February 2026, the heavy - duty truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% from January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% from the same period last year (81,400 vehicles). From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [11]. Methanol - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%, and a significant increase of 9.94% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0139 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,900 tons, and a significant increase of 145,300 tons compared with 1.8686 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 33.67%, a week - on - week increase of 3.25%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 88.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.46%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.48%. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78.44%, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.77%. As of March 13, 2026, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 54 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 880,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62,100 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of March 19, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 485,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145,100 tons, and a significant increase of 140,000 tons compared with 345,400 tons in the same period last year [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 75 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.668 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 barrels per day, which was at a historical high [13]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 449.3 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.156 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 12.291 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 27.524 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 944,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 91.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.5 percentage points [14]. - As of March 10, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 228,015 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 55,865 contracts and a significant increase of 88,906 contracts or 63.91% compared with the average in February (139,109 contracts). On the other hand, as of March 10, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 286,968 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 40,454 contracts and a significant increase of 125,574 contracts or 77.81% compared with the average in February (161,394 contracts) [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,550 yuan/ton | - 500 yuan/ton | 16,090 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | + 160 yuan/ton | - 190 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,145 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | 3,182 yuan/ton | + 270 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | - 70 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 696.1 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | 814.9 yuan/barrel | + 50.6 yuan/barrel | - 118.8 yuan/barrel | - 49.9 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21][24][26][28]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47][49][51][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupting Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports, Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure. The mid - term focus is on three variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy implementation rhythm. It is recommended to trade within a range and avoid unilateral chasing [3][4]. - The stock market shows a pattern of strong index and weak stocks today, with little change in trading volume compared to yesterday. The small - cycle is at a high level, and there is a need for adjustment in the early trading tomorrow. The early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [7]. - Gold's daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After a rally last night, it fell back again, and a high - shorting strategy should be adopted [9]. - For iron ore, although there is a supply surplus in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity sentiment is high recently, and a bullish view can be maintained [11][12]. - For glass, in the seasonal off - season, the factory inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [14][15]. - For methanol, affected by Middle - East geopolitical events, supply has decreased significantly, and the port inventory has decreased by 13.07 tons this week [19]. - For pulp, most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, and the port inventory is under pressure. There is an expectation of price increase for cultural paper and white - card paper, which may support pulp prices [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure. Three operators are reducing production loads to maintain factory operation. Restarting a steam cracking unit takes up to two weeks, and factories usually do not stock more than a month's worth of raw materials [3]. - Mid - term focus variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium (the 8 - 10 dollars/barrel premium will fade quickly if the strait passage resumes), supply - demand fundamentals (OPEC+ production cuts and slow growth of US shale oil form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak), and policy implementation rhythm (US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC+ production adjustments will determine the volatility center). It is recommended to trade within a range, with Brent in the 80 - 100 dollars/barrel range and SC crude oil in the 600 - 800 yuan/barrel range, and set stop - losses and avoid overnight positions [4]. Stock Market - The market shows a pattern of strong index and weak stocks today, with little change in trading volume compared to yesterday. The small - cycle is at a high level, and there is a need for adjustment in the early trading tomorrow. The early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [7]. Gold - Gold's daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After a rally last night, it fell back again, and a high - shorting strategy should be adopted [9]. Iron Ore - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to be loose as Australian and Brazilian shipments are normal and mines are in the capacity - release cycle. The terminal demand needs time to start, and attention should be paid to policy and sentiment. Recently, the commodity sentiment is high, and a bullish view can be maintained [11][12]. Glass - In the seasonal off - season, the daily melting volume changes little, and the factory inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short - term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [14][15]. Methanol - Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and exporter, and the recent Middle - East geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in methanol. Supply has decreased significantly, and the port inventory has decreased by 13.07 tons this week [19]. Pulp - Most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, and individual equipment is under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is continuously accumulating and under pressure. The downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to continue to increase, and the paper enterprises' gross profit is low. There is an expectation of price increase for cultural paper and white - card paper, which may support pulp prices [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term trend of crude oil 2604 is volatile and strong, the medium - term trend is volatile and strong, the intraday trend is volatile and weak, and the reference view is also volatile and weak [1]. Driving Logic - As US President Trump signaled the possible end of the war against Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East declined rapidly, the crude oil premium significantly reversed, and international crude oil futures prices pulled back sharply from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in the energy and chemical commodities. With the rise of inflation expectations, the global central banks' interest - rate cut cycle may end early and an interest - rate hike cycle may begin, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this backdrop, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract showed a high - level pullback during the night session on Monday, and the futures price converged its gains [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil market is not explicitly provided in the report. However, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views suggest a relatively positive stance, with the overall reference view being "bullish operation" [1][5] Group 2: Core View - The core view is that due to the ongoing military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has rapidly increased. Although Iran claims that the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, tankers and gas ships of Western countries and their allies are restricted from passing. Despite OPEC+ resuming production increase in Q2, short - term geopolitical factors outweigh the weak supply - demand fundamentals. As a result, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices showed a bullish - oscillating trend on Thursday night, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a bullish trend on Friday. Attention should also be paid to the US's possible release of strategic crude oil reserves [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - For the crude oil 2604 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating and bullish", the mid - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating and bullish", and the overall reference view is "bullish operation" [1] - The calculation of price increase and decrease amplitude: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end - point price is the day - trading closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered slightly bullish, and an increase greater than 1% is considered strongly bullish. The concepts of "slightly bullish/slightly weak" only apply to intraday views [2][3][4] Driving Logic - The main driving force for the current crude oil price is the geopolitical risk caused by the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The geopolitical risk premium remains high, overshadowing the relatively weak supply - demand fundamentals in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures contracts are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, with an intraday tendency towards a weak oscillation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Time - period Views** - For the short - term (within one week), the crude oil 2604 contract is expected to be oscillatory [1]. - For the medium - term (two weeks to one month), the crude oil 2604 contract is expected to be oscillatory [1]. - For the intraday view, the crude oil 2604 contract is expected to oscillate weakly and run weakly [1][5]. - **Driving Logic** - After the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract was driven by geopolitical risk premium, tight supply - demand balance, and domestic resumption of work demand. The repeated Middle - East situation is the core variable of oil - price fluctuations [5]. - During the Spring Festival, the limited progress of the US - Iran nuclear - agreement negotiation, the US troop increase in the Middle East, and Iran's military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz intensified market concerns about supply interruption. The Strait of Hormuz is the passage for about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil, and any tension escalation may increase the risk premium of oil prices [5]. - As short - term geopolitical risks gradually weaken, the significant increase in US commercial crude - oil inventories announced by the EIA suppresses oil prices. Although crude - oil futures prices opened low and closed high on Thursday night, there are differences between bulls and bears, so it is expected that domestic crude - oil futures may maintain a weakly oscillatory trend on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday showing a slight downward trend. The core logic is that the weakening of geopolitical risks, combined with the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, will cause the price of crude oil futures to be under pressure [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term (within one week)**: The trend of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The trend of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The trend of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory and slightly weak [1]. 3.2 Price and Driving Factors - After the Spring Festival, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract rose significantly, driven by geopolitical risk premium, tight supply - demand balance, and domestic resumption of work demand. The repeated situation in the Middle East is the core variable of oil price fluctuations. During the Spring Festival, the limited progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, the US troop increase in the Middle East, and Iran's military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz intensified market concerns about supply interruption. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes, may push up the risk premium of oil prices if the situation escalates [5]. - As short - term geopolitical risk factors gradually weaken, and affected by the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories announced by EIA, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures were slightly pressured in the night session on Wednesday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and slightly weak trend on Thursday [5].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq index reaching a maximum intraday increase of 1.41% but closing up only 0.78% after significant fluctuations [1] - The Dow Jones showed weaker performance, initially rising 0.74% but ultimately closing with a slight gain of 0.26% [1] - The overall market exhibited a typical "conflicted" upward movement, indicating some upward momentum but also significant selling pressure leading to intraday declines [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. core capital goods orders for December exceeded expectations, and January's industrial output recorded its largest increase in nearly a year, with manufacturing output rising by 0.6%, the highest since February 2025 [1] - These positive economic indicators contributed to the initial strong performance of U.S. stocks at the market open [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions regarding interest rate adjustments, with some members advocating for rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, while others suggested that further easing may not be appropriate until inflation trends are clearer [2][3] - This divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve members has led to mixed market reactions, including the initial rise followed by a decline and eventual recovery in stock prices [3][4] Oil Market Dynamics - U.S. crude oil futures experienced a substantial increase, peaking above $65 and closing around $64, marking a rise of 4.24% [6] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to regional geopolitical factors, which may lead to further increases in the short term, presenting potential investment opportunities [6] - The increase in oil prices has also influenced market sentiment, with a corresponding rise in precious metals like silver and gold, although their recent performance has been weaker compared to oil [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong. The core logic is that the marginal improvement of supply - demand fundamentals provides solid support, and geopolitical risks are rising [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of SC crude oil is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2604 and SC crude oil is strong [1][5]. 3.2 Price Movement and Core Logic - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: OPEC +'s eight major oil - producing countries announced to continue to suspend production increase in March 2026, maintaining the production level of December 2025, which eases the concern about oversupply. The US winter storm affects crude oil production, with last week's crude oil inventory decreasing by 3.5 million barrels and Cushing area inventory dropping by 743,000 barrels, strengthening the bullish logic [5]. - **Geopolitical risks**: Due to the large differences between the US and Iran, the Pentagon's "pizza index" has risen again, and geopolitical risks are rising, which boosted the domestic crude oil futures to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Tuesday night, and the futures price closed slightly higher. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided [1][5] 2. Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Contents - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within a week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] - **Price Calculation Rule**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - **Strength Classification**: A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongish, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. Strongish/weakish only applies to intraday views [3][4] - **Driving Logic**: The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals. After a short - term sharp correction, the bearish sentiment in the oil market has been released. Due to the existing Middle - East geopolitical risks and the winter peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the bullish atmosphere has re - gathered. The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday night with a slight increase, and are expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]