投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利空因素压制，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"， 供应宽松预期放大。不过随着地缘因素凸显以后，在乐观 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday outlook of being strong [1][5] - The core logic is that demand expectations drive the crude oil market to be oscillating and strong. Market sentiment has improved, and the market has returned to the supply - demand fundamental - driven situation. Optimistic factors such as the rise in European diesel prices and the increase in winter heating demand expectations have promoted the sharp rise in crude oil futures prices [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Performance - On Tuesday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices rose sharply. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract closed up 2.01% to 471.1 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Factors - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", and market sentiment has improved, boosting investors' risk appetite [5] - As geopolitical emotions are gradually digested, the crude oil futures market has returned to the supply - demand fundamental - driven situation [5] - European diesel prices have risen sharply, and winter heating demand expectations have increased [5] Outlook - It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a strong trend [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global technology stocks faced a sell-off due to heightened concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble, leading to significant downward pressure on the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting the Nasdaq index, which recorded its largest weekly decline in six months, dropping over 3% [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.21% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.63% [1] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices declined last week, primarily due to a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and concerns over weak oil demand, resulting in a cumulative drop of over 2% for the week [4] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 2.02%, while Brent crude oil decreased by 2.21% [4] Group 3: Gold Market - International gold prices saw a slight increase, surpassing the $4000 per ounce mark again, driven by a weak U.S. labor market and uncertainties related to the U.S. government shutdown, with a cumulative increase of 0.33% [6] - The ongoing government shutdown raises questions about the release of key U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions [8] Group 4: AI Companies Earnings Reports - Several U.S. artificial intelligence companies are set to release their earnings reports this week, including CoreWeave, Cisco, Applied Materials, and Infineon [10] - CoreWeave, a key partner of NVIDIA, has signed a multi-billion dollar cloud infrastructure contract with OpenAI, and the market anticipates continued explosive revenue growth for the company, while also being cautious of its high valuation risks [10]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures experienced a daily increase of 1%, reaching $62.41 per barrel on October 24 [1] Group 1 - The main contract for WTI crude oil futures showed a significant price movement, indicating potential market volatility and investor interest [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - On October 20, international gold prices surged, reaching a new intraday historical high, driven by expectations of a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown and easing global trade tensions [1][2] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.12%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.37%, primarily fueled by strong performance in technology stocks [1] - European stock indices also collectively rose, with the UK market up 0.52%, France up 0.39%, and Germany up 1.80%, as investors bet on increased production from European defense companies [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced a service outage affecting multiple companies and popular websites, but this did not negatively impact Amazon's stock price, which rose by 1.61% as investors anticipate a strong Q3 2025 earnings report [3] - Apple saw a significant increase in sales for its new phone model, leading to an upgrade in its stock rating to "buy," with its stock price closing up 3.94% at a record high [1] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell slightly, with U.S. light crude oil futures closing at $57.52 per barrel, down 0.03%, and Brent crude oil futures at $61.01 per barrel, down 0.46%, amid concerns of oversupply [5][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is underway, with concerns about the impact of recent personnel changes on interest rate decisions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [1] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.07%, while Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up nearly 1.8% [1] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve meeting, there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, estimated at 96%, with further cuts in October and December also likely at over 70% [4] - International gold prices surged, with London spot gold prices breaking the $3,700 per ounce mark, and New York December gold futures closing at $3,725.1 per ounce, up 0.16% [4] Group 3 - Analysts expect a larger-than-expected decrease in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, supported by geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, which bolstered international oil prices [7] - New York light crude oil futures closed at $64.52 per barrel, up 1.93%, while November Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.47 per barrel, up 1.53% [7] Group 4 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, driven by strong online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales, likely influenced by back-to-school shopping [10] - Despite economic challenges, strong consumer spending may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [10] Group 5 - European stock indices fell as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with banking stocks under pressure [12] - The UK's unemployment rate remained high, and average wage growth showed a decline, raising concerns among investors and contributing to the downward trend in European indices, with the FTSE 100 down 0.88%, CAC40 down 1%, and DAX down 1.77% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The main reason is the intensification of Middle East geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract rose 1.10% to 488.9 yuan/barrel in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Middle East geopolitical risks have re - emerged. On Monday afternoon, there were reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked an Israeli oil tanker as retaliation for the Israeli air strikes on Yemeni Houthi officials. The Yemeni Houthi rebels also emphasized that they would escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel in the future, which increased the expectation of Middle East geopolitical conflict risks and led to a recovery in crude oil premiums [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and oscillating trend. Despite the expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the contract showed a moderately strong performance in the night session on Friday, and is likely to continue this trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to oscillate with a moderately strong bias [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year as demand growth is slow and supply is surging, even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories are expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is receding. As the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rises, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a moderately strong and oscillating trend in the night session on Friday, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.39% to 492.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a bullish bias" respectively, and it is expected to run with a bullish bias [1]. - After the release of the previous bearish sentiment, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract stopped falling and stabilized on the night session of Monday this week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Time - cycle Explanation**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. The distinction of "oscillation with a bullish/ bearish bias" only applies to the intraday view [1][4]. - **Price Calculation Rule**: For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - **Fluctuation Classification**: A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bearish bias", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - **Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price**: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has been given back [5].

Group 1 - The main contract for crude oil futures at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest [1] - The main contract 2508 settled at 518.2 yuan, down 0.92% or 4.8 yuan, with a trading volume of 119,289 lots and open interest of 17,930 lots, reflecting a reduction of 2,979 lots in daily open interest [1] - Overnight, WTI crude oil futures for the August contract fell by 2.1% [1]