期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：节后归来，国内原油期货 2604 合约大幅收涨。核心由地缘风险溢价、供应紧平衡、国内 复工需求三重驱动共振。中东局势的反复成为油价波动的核心变量。春节期间，美伊核协议谈判进 展有限，美国在中东增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险减弱，原油震荡偏弱 | 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-26 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：节后归来，国内原油期货 2604 合约大幅收涨。核心由地缘风险溢价、供应紧平衡、国内 复工需求三重驱动共振。中东局势的反复成为油价波动的核心 ...

美股三大指数昨夜集体上涨，纳斯达克指数盘中最大涨幅达到了1.41%，不过盘中跳水迹象非常明显，涨幅最低收窄到了0.35%，收盘时最终上涨0.78%，仅 仅从纳指的走势看，出现了开盘时的典型拉升动作，然后又上演了回落走势，最终收盘还是保持了涨势。 当然了道指的走势就比较弱了，开盘时上涨了0.74%，而到了尾盘几乎涨幅全部回吐完了，收盘时微涨了0.26%。 从美股的这种走势看，几乎是一种典型的纠结式上涨，似乎向上有些动力，但好像在纠结什么，所以即便是上涨了，却因为抛盘比较重，又不得不盘中跳 水。 这就是当前美联储内部的分歧，可以说在降息、暂停和加息之间混演了三派，所以才会出现美股先涨后跌，然后尾盘上翘的走势，特别是盘中出现跳水的核 心点在于部分观点提出了加息，但是随后想想，这几乎是不可能实现的事情，如此最终美股表现出了尾盘向上的态势。 从我自身的认识看，当前美股的情况不仅仅是美联储内部的分歧加大，关键是美股向上的动力明显不足了，这对投资全球的人们应该引起警示。 从外盘的情况看，昨夜还有一个现象值得关注，那就是美国原油期货价格出现了大涨，盘中最高冲破了65美元，收盘在64美元左右，大涨了4.24%，大家应 该有所印 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。经历短期大幅回调以后，油市利空情绪得到释放。由于中东地缘风险依然存在，且 北半球处在冬季用油旺季阶段，偏多氛 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have cooled down, leading to a weakening and volatile trend in crude oil [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - **Price Calculation**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the daily - session closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - **Strength Classification**: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weak - biased, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strong - biased, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The strong - biased/weak - biased classification only applies to intraday views [3][4]. - **Crude Oil Market Analysis**: Recently, US President Trump has frequently signaled geopolitical risks, with Greenland and Canada potentially being targets. However, due to the peace - talk signals between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing the premium of crude oil to retreat and weakening the bullish sentiment in the domestic energy - chemical sector. On the night of Monday this week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile decline. Given the weakening of short - term Middle - East geopolitical sentiment and the possibility of a peace - talk agreement between the US and Iran, the expectation of a shortage in crude oil supply has decreased. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weakly volatile pattern on Tuesday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are rising, which has led to a stable and rising trend in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night, and it is predicted that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2603 is strong, and the reference view is a strong run [1][5]. Core Logic - Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and Greenland and Canada may become the next targets for the US to seize and attack [5]. - As the US military aircraft carrier has reached the Middle East battlefield in the short term and Iran has issued tough statements, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening the crude oil transportation in the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have increased again [5]. - The geopolitical risk sentiment has overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the stable and rising trend of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。由于市场担忧全球原油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着昨日美国 总统特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Geopolitical risks boost the market, and the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market is gradually weakening, leading to a strong rebound in crude oil futures prices last Friday and an expected oscillatory and strong trend for domestic crude oil futures on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - For crude oil 2602, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Mexico potentially becoming targets, and the US threatening a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle - East geopolitical risks [5] - The re - strengthening of crude oil premium weakens the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the strong rebound of crude oil futures prices last Friday and the expected strong trend on Monday [5]