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国际油价冲高回落,多只原油QDII连发溢价警示
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 12:48
Core Insights - The recent volatility in international oil prices has led to significant fluctuations in the returns of oil QDII funds, prompting several funds to implement purchase restrictions and issue warnings about premium risks [1][2][3] Fund Performance and Restrictions - E Fund's oil LOF announced a suspension of subscription and redemption services effective July 1, following a previous suspension on June 19, due to the fund's net value closely tracking oil price fluctuations [1] - From June 9 to June 26, E Fund's oil LOF saw a cumulative increase of nearly 15% over two weeks, followed by a slight decline of 0.59% as of June 26, with a weekly drop of nearly 9% [1] - Other funds, such as Southern Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF, also suspended subscription and redemption services, with Southern Oil LOF issuing four premium risk warnings in June [2] Premium Risks and Market Dynamics - As of June 23, Harvest Oil LOF's premium rate reached 19%, while Southern Oil LOF's premium rate exceeded 8% [2] - The premium rates have since decreased, with Southern Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF reporting rates of 2.9% and 3.5% respectively as of June 26 [2] - The volatility in oil QDII fund returns has been significant, with E Fund's oil LOF down 12% year-to-date, while other funds like Huabao Oil and Southern Oil LOF have seen declines of 4.6% and 1.4% respectively [2] Oil Price Fluctuations - International oil prices experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with WTI crude oil futures peaking at over $78 per barrel on June 23 before falling to around $65 per barrel by June 26, marking a decline of over 15% [4] - Analysts suggest that while geopolitical tensions may support short-term oil prices, medium to long-term demand expectations are being revised downward, potentially putting pressure on the market [4] Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicates a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a reported drop of 5.8 million barrels for the week ending June 21, significantly exceeding market expectations [5] - The overall global crude oil inventory is showing a declining trend, despite a slight increase in Asian inventories [5] - As the consumption peak season approaches, there is potential for a rebound in oil demand, which may provide some support for prices [5]