Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the overall reference view is "weak operation". Due to the existence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the premium of crude oil has increased. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. However, 8 major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing country organization is gradually realized, the room for further expansion of production in the future is limited. Against the background of differences between long and short positions in the oil market, on Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend. [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil 2509 Contract Views - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation [1] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1] - Reference view: Weak operation [1] Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Thursday. [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased the premium of crude oil. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is digested and the original production increase plan is realized, the room for further production expansion is limited. [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 产油国大幅增产，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定 8 月增产 54.8 万桶/日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, with an overall view of bullish operation [1][5] - Due to the existing Middle - East geopolitical risks, the crude oil premium has increased. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has strengthened again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's summer peak oil - consumption season, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. The market sentiment has recovered as Trump extended the grace period for reciprocal tariffs. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, the domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend on Wednesday night. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Crude Oil (SC) - **Price and Change**: The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly declined by 0.02% to 510.5 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night [5] - **View and Logic**: The intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is the Middle - East geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, the peak oil - consumption season, and the recovery of market sentiment [1][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a bullish bias [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For crude oil 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory with a bullish bias, with a reference view of running strongly. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment supports the oscillatory and bullish movement of crude oil [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The core logic for the bullish view of crude oil is that due to the existing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium has increased. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. The market sentiment has recovered as Trump extended the grace period for reciprocal tariffs. Supported by the bullish sentiment, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract rose 1.27% to 511.4 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Wednesday [5]

伊拉克高硫燃料油出口量维持高位 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.37%，报2979元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3590 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌，目前市场重回基 本面主导的逻辑。 高硫燃料油方面，近日价差结构明显转弱，现货贴水、月差、裂解价差连续走低，反映现货端供应相对充裕，市 场利好驱动不足。目前来看，欧佩克增产将带动中高硫原油与燃料油供应提升。此外，与以色列停火后伊朗出口 有回升迹象，供应压力或开始显现。值得一提的是，伊拉克高硫燃料油出口维持高位，6月份进一步增加。参考船 期数据，伊拉克6月高硫燃料油发货量预计为167万吨，环比5月增加32万吨，同比去年提升70万吨。伊拉克部分货 源可能来自于伊朗，也印证了高硫燃料油供应的增长态势。需求方面，目前夏季发电端需求较为旺盛，航运端消 费也相对持稳。炼厂端需求则需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引增量，近期国内部分炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调也有 利于高硫燃料油进口需求回升。因此，高硫燃料油市场结构调整充分后将迎来新的支撑。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结 ...

Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]

原油QDII纷纷开启限购并频发溢价风险警示。 国际油价大起大落，原油QDII收益水涨船高的同时也纷纷开启限购，并频发溢价风险警示。 6月25日晚间，易方达基金发布公告称，旗下原油LOF将于7月1日暂停申购赎回，及定期定额投资业 务。为该基金继19日暂停申购赎回，及定期定额投资业务后再次限购。 从基金净值走势来看，跟随油价大起大落趋势明显，6月9日以来，易方达原油LOF在连续两周累计涨近 15%，随后掉头向下，截至6月26日收盘微跌0.59%，周累计跌幅近9%。 交易人士对记者称，能源价格波动较大，与之挂钩的基金产品场内溢价不容忽视。且在全球地缘冲突以 及宏观环境不确定性增强的背景下，油价将维持震荡行情，投资者需注意控制风险，切勿盲目追高。 当前溢价回落，截至6月26日收盘，南方原油LOF和嘉实原油LOF的折溢率分别为2.9%、3.5%。 拉长周期看，今年以来原油QDII收益波动剧烈。据Wind统计，自2025年开年以来，易方达原油LOF累 计下跌12%，此外，华宝油气LOF、南方原油LOF也分别累计下跌4.6%、1.4%。 近期在地缘冲突扰动下，国际油价开启一轮上涨行情，原油QDII收益跟随上涨，本月初至今， ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-26 盘面进入震荡，市场短期驱动有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.3%，报3011元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.49%，报3709元 /吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带 动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变数，原油和燃料油市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求不及预期、欧佩克增产幅度超预期、船燃需求不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 高硫燃料油方面，近日月差结构明显转弱，反映现货端相对充裕，下游炼厂端利润的疲软制约了采购需求。随着 夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场调整后依然存在一定支撑。其中，埃及由于天然气产量供 应不足，可能会进口更多LNG和高硫燃料油来满足旺季电力需求。沙特燃料油进口量也呈现逐月攀升的态势。值 得一提的是，6月我国高硫燃料油到港量有一定增加的迹象，燃料油消费税抵扣比例可能会适当上调，这将带动炼 厂端的需求从低位回升。整体来看，地缘扰动结束后高 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-25 地缘局势缓和，盘面大幅回落 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 1、\t6月24日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4830；东北市场，4150—4310；华北市场，4590—4700；华东市场， 4580—4750；沿江市场，4830—4960；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌40美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌23美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4773元/吨，跌319元/吨，丁烷4299元/吨，跌185元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷610美元/吨，跌38美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌23美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4812元/吨，跌304元/吨，丁烷4299元/吨，跌185元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日伊朗和以色列双方均宣布正式停火，中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已 ...