投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ni 期货研究报告 原油-SC 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 2 日 原油周报 地缘风险扰动 原油强势运行 核心观点 原油：节后归来，随着美伊展开第三轮间接谈判，中东地缘 风险逐渐降温，原油回吐部分溢价，叠加北半球冬季取暖需求旺季 趋于尾声。在利多因素消化的背景下，国内外原油期货价格呈现冲 高回吐部分涨幅，高位偏强震荡的态势。其中，国内原油期货 2604 合约当周期价累计涨幅达 6.01%至 488.4 元/桶。 随着美以向伊朗发动军事袭击，中东地缘风险快速升温，伊朗 宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，原油天然气等能源物资无 ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the supply and demand for PX and PTA are expected to marginally improve this year, with the PX-naphtha price spread starting to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th [2][3] - The oil and petrochemical index performed generally this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector showed the best performance within the petrochemical industry, increasing by 1.63% [2] - The crude oil prices have risen, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories [2] Group 2 - In the polyester sector, the price of polyester filament remains stable, with varying inventory days for different varieties in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in the operating rate of weaving machines [2] - In the olefins market, the sample PE spot prices have increased, while the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins has decreased [2] - The focus is on the progress of PTA's anti-involution and PX profit recovery, which, if successful, would benefit polyester filament [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply and demand for PX and PTA are expected to marginally improve this year, with a focus on the price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) which has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th [1][2] - The oil and petrochemical index performed generally this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector showed the best performance within the petrochemical industry, increasing by 1.63% [1][2] Group 2 - Crude oil prices have risen, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories [3] - Polyester filament prices remain stable, with varying inventory days for different varieties in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in weaving machine operating rates [3] - For olefins, sample PE spot prices have increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins have decreased [3] - If demand improves and there is progress in eliminating outdated production capacity, it will benefit the midstream refining sector [4] - Attention is drawn to the progress of PTA's anti-involution and PX profit recovery, which, if successful, will benefit polyester filament [5]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - Focus: Expectations for marginal improvement in PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th, with attention on the potential for the price spread to strengthen again. Geopolitical influences from Iran have led to a risk premium in oil pricing this week [2] - Review: The performance of the oil and petrochemical index was average this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, oilfield services performed the best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with an increase of 1.63% [5][3] - Oil: Crude oil prices increased; US crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] - Polyester: The price of polyester filament remained stable; inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][20] - Olefins: Sample PE spot prices increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased [23][24] Summary by Sections Upstream - If geopolitical factors lead to a future oil premium, it will benefit upstream targets [2] Midstream (Refining) - An improvement in demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacity will benefit midstream refining [2] Polyester Filament - Attention on the progress of PTA's internal competition and PX profit recovery; if successful, it will benefit polyester filament [2] Oil Market - Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at 64.47 USD/barrel and 37.66 EUR/MWh, respectively, with increases of 1.6% and 32.1% compared to last week [7] Polyester Market - The latest data shows stable prices for polyester filament, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6550, 7750, and 6800 CNY/ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 24 CNY/ton [15][21] Olefins Market - The sample PE price was 6920 CNY/ton, up 0.29% from last week, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased to 490,000 tons, down 80,000 tons from the previous week [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the OPEC+ decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 has led Morgan Stanley to raise its short-term oil price forecast, specifically increasing the Brent crude oil futures price expectation from $57.50 to $60 per barrel [1] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a slight increase of 0.04%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Fuan Energy (5.03%), Lansi Heavy Industry (4.59%), and others [1] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include major companies like China National Petroleum (601857), Sinopec (600028), and CNOOC (600938), which collectively account for 65.09% of the index [2] - The regional pricing fluctuations and potential future policies from OPEC+ are highlighted as factors that could impact upstream and midstream sectors positively, depending on demand recovery and supply adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a strong increase of 1.00%, driven by significant gains in constituent stocks such as Lanstone Heavy Industry (603169) up 9.98%, and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) up 7.81% [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations, which contributed to the rise in oil prices [1] - Zhongyou Securities indicated that if there is a future premium on crude oil due to regional situations, it would benefit upstream assets, while improvements in demand and supply could favor midstream refining [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil (600938), collectively accounting for 64.68% of the index [2] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry continues to adjust, with the oil and petrochemical index showing a decline of 1.99% compared to last week [1] - Oil product sales and storage performed the best within the petrochemical sector, with a decline of only 0.46% [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of phasing out old facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [1] Group 2 - Crude oil prices have decreased, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories [2] - Polyester filament prices and price spreads have declined, while the inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased, leading to a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [2] - The prices of sample polyolefin spot markets remain stable, indicating inventory depletion [2] Group 3 - If demand improves and there is progress in eliminating outdated production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [3] - The report highlights potential benefits for upstream assets if geopolitical factors lead to a premium on crude oil prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the performance of the petrochemical industry, noting a decline in the oil and petrochemical index by 0.41% compared to the previous week, while oilfield services showed the best performance with a 3.98% increase [1] - The report indicates that crude oil prices have risen, with increases in both crude oil and gasoline inventories [1] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament remains stable, with an increase in price differentials, while the inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have risen, and the operating rate of weaving machines remains stable [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that if demand improves and there is progress in eliminating outdated production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [2] - The report emphasizes that geopolitical factors could lead to a premium on crude oil, which would favor upstream stocks [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the overall reference view is "weak operation". Due to the existence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the premium of crude oil has increased. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. However, 8 major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing country organization is gradually realized, the room for further expansion of production in the future is limited. Against the background of differences between long and short positions in the oil market, on Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend. [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil 2509 Contract Views - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation [1] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1] - Reference view: Weak operation [1] Price and Trend - On Wednesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained an oscillating and weakening trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.45% to 504.7 yuan per barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Thursday. [5] Core Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased the premium of crude oil. After the previous sharp decline, the confidence of long - positions in the oil market has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. 8 major oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. After the bearish impact of the production increase is digested and the original production increase plan is realized, the room for further production expansion is limited. [5]