1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains high. Although IEA member countries plan to release 400 million barrels of crude oil, it is difficult to offset the supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the expected supply of Middle Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract has shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 17.38% to 753.6 yuan per barrel this week. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to maintain a strong posture [5][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price increase and basis change**: As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 84 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 579.4 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 106.6 yuan per barrel. The main contract 2604 of domestic crude oil futures closed at 664.8 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 176.4 yuan per barrel. The basis widened to - 85.4 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Geopolitical influence on prices**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to high geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The planned release of 400 million barrels of crude oil by IEA member countries cannot offset the supply shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the expected supply of Middle Eastern crude oil has decreased, and domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2605 contract has increased by 17.38% to 753.6 yuan per barrel this week [5][12][13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintains Excess Expectations, and the Pace of Production Increase Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase and supply situation**: In 2023, eight OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia announced voluntary production cuts. Since the second quarter of 2025, they have shifted to a production - increasing policy. The production increase has been implemented in a phased manner. In 2025, the production of OPEC member countries increased significantly. In December 2025, the crude oil production of OPEC member countries was 28.564 million barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day. It is expected that in 2026, the global crude oil supply market will show a pattern of "OPEC+ actively expanding production to seize market share, and non - OPEC+ steadily increasing production as the main force" [23][24][25]. - **Non - OPEC production capacity**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has intensified the supply surplus. The production of South American oil - producing countries such as Brazil and Guyana has been rising, and the US shale oil production has remained at a high level. As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 411, with a week - on - week increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 93. The average daily crude oil production in the US was 13.678 million barrels, with a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 103,000 barrels per day [37]. - **Seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere**: The US, as the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After late February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the inventory will change from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventory, and the demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down [39][40]. - **US inventory and refinery situation**: As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.824 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 7.78 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points [42]. - **China's crude oil situation in 2025**: In 2025, China's crude oil imports reached a record high, with an annual import volume of 577.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The production was stable, with an annual output of 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The processing volume increased moderately, with an annual processing volume of 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors [46][49][50]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Break Out in Multiple Points and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Middle East geopolitical situation**: During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting". The US - Iran confrontation, the Red Sea shipping crisis, and the escalation of the Palestine - Israel conflict have pushed up international oil prices. The US and Iran are in a "security dilemma", and the Red Sea shipping crisis has increased shipping costs. The intervention of major powers has made the situation more complex. If the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through 100 US dollars per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Week - on - Week - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 172,150 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 562 contracts, but a significant increase of 33,041 contracts compared with the February average, an increase of 23.75%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 246,514 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 54,198 contracts, but a significant increase of 85,120 contracts compared with the February average, an increase of 52.74% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - Due to the further escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East continues to heat up. Energy supplies from the Middle East are blocked, and Middle Eastern oil - producing countries may face production cuts. Although OPEC+ plans to resume production increase in the second quarter and IEA member countries plan to release strategic reserves, the increase in supply is less than the decrease caused by supply disruptions. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate in a strong posture [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For Shanghai rubber (RU) 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating and slightly stronger", with a reference view of "oscillating and slightly stronger" [1][5] - For synthetic rubber (BR) 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating and slightly stronger", with a reference view of "oscillating and slightly stronger" [1][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: The US increased military pressure on Iran, escalating the US - Iran conflict and increasing Middle East geopolitical risks. International crude oil futures prices remained strong, boosting domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. The cost - driven logic of synthetic rubber is still in place, and the discount spread with Shanghai rubber is narrowing, supporting the Shanghai rubber futures price. Although the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a slightly weakening trend in the night session on Friday, the retracement space was limited. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: The US increased military pressure on Iran, escalating the US - Iran conflict and increasing Middle East geopolitical risks. International crude oil futures prices remained strong. The International Energy Agency member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil, with the US planning to release 172 million barrels to suppress the rapidly rising oil prices. The cost - driven logic of synthetic rubber is still in place. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a strong trend in the night session on Friday. It is expected to maintain a strong trend on Monday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Friday, while the synthetic rubber is expected to continue its strong performance [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and slightly stronger; Reference view: volatile and slightly stronger [1] - **Core Logic**: Despite Trump's signal of ending the war with Iran, the conflict between the US - Israel and Iran may not end, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains. International crude oil futures prices are still strong, boosting domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. The cost - driven logic of synthetic rubber remains, and the discount spread with Shanghai rubber is narrowing, supporting the Shanghai rubber futures price. The 2605 contract showed a volatile and stable trend on Thursday night [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile and slightly stronger; Medium - term: volatile and slightly stronger; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain, and international energy commodity futures prices are strong, boosting domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. Although the IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil (the US will release 172 million barrels), the cost - driven logic of synthetic rubber remains. The synthetic rubber futures showed a strong performance on Thursday night [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices remain in a relatively strong pattern, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. Although the US President signaled a possible end to the war with Iran, the actions between the US - Israel and Iran may not end, and geopolitical risks still exist. The IEA member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil, with the US planning to release 172 million barrels to suppress the short - term rapid rise in oil prices. In the short term, geopolitical risks persist, and the crude oil premium has increased again. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures on Thursday may maintain a trend of oscillating and strengthening [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Trend - For the crude oil 2604 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all oscillating and strengthening, with the core logic being the ongoing geopolitical conflicts [1]. - The intraday and medium - term views of crude oil (SC) are both oscillating and strengthening, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures on Thursday may maintain this trend [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - Although the US President signaled a possible end to the war with Iran, the actions between the US - Israel and Iran may not end, and the Middle East geopolitical risks still exist, keeping international crude oil futures prices in a strong pattern [5]. - As oil prices rise sharply, IEA member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil, with the US releasing 172 million barrels to suppress short - term rapid price increases [5]. - Geopolitical risks remain in the short term, and the crude oil premium has increased again. The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures remained firm and rebounded significantly on Wednesday night [5].

Report Overview - The report provides investment analysis for the rubber and synthetic rubber futures markets, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday views [1][5][7]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that both the Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures are expected to show a trend of oscillating and strengthening [1][5][7]. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term view**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday view**: Oscillating and strengthening [1] - **Core logic**: Despite Trump's signal of ending the war with Iran, the Middle - East geopolitical risks remain. International crude oil futures prices are strong, boosting domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. The cost - driven logic of synthetic rubber remains, and the discount spread with Shanghai rubber is narrowing, supporting the Shanghai rubber futures price. The 2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend in the night session on Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term view**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating and strengthening [1] - **Intraday view**: Oscillating and strengthening [1] - **Core logic**: The Middle - East geopolitical risks remain, and international energy commodity futures prices are strong, boosting domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. As oil prices rise sharply, IEA member countries agree to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil, with the US releasing 172 million barrels to suppress the rapid rise of oil prices. The cost - driven logic of synthetic rubber remains. The synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and strengthening trend in the night session on Wednesday, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday [7].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9012 | 8960 | 9128 | 8688 | 9070 | 58 | 0.64% | 516475 | 364671 | 2964 | | P2609 | 9028 | 8996 | 9140 | 8926 | 9092 | 64 | 0.71% | 73454 | 98074 | 5866 | | Y2605 | 8370 | 8360 | 8404 | 8292 | 8370 | 0 | 0.00% | 275271 | 659852 | 966 | | Y2609 | 8342 | 8306 | 8376 | 8262 | 8342 | 0 | 0.00% | 54178 | 256220 | 178 | | O1605 | 9507 | 9458 | 9566 | 9404 | 9489 | -18 | -0.19% | 167881 | 278896 | 908 | | O1609 | 9426 | 9370 | 9477 | 9326 | 9415 | -11 | -0.12% | 15744 | 59235 | 3785 | [7] Spot Price and Basis Information - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader's quotation: Spot: OI2605 + 360; April - May: OI2605 + 280; May - July: OI2605 + 120 - East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: Spot: Y05 + 280; Far - month price: March - April: Y05 + 300; March - May: Y05 + 280; April - May: Y05 + 250; June - September: Y09 + 230; Third - grade soybean oil: Y05 + 260; Degummed soybean oil: March - May Y05 + 100 - Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree palm oil: Y05 + 140; Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil: Y05 - 40; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil: Y05 + 0 [7] Industry Comments - The three major oils fluctuated with the international crude oil price during the day. The current market of the oil and fat sector is mainly dominated by the game between "energy - attribute support" and "fundamental pressure". The short - term support comes from the Middle East conflict, so short - term long positions are recommended, but do not chase the high price. In the medium term, palm oil in the producing areas will enter the seasonal production - increasing cycle in March. Later, the arrival of imported soybeans in China will be concentrated. Coupled with the disappearance of the crude oil premium after the geopolitical sentiment cools down, the price center is likely to move down. Pay attention to the progress of the US biodiesel policy and the trend of international crude oil prices [8] Group 3: Industry News - StoneX lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons or 2.09% from the previous forecast of 181.6 million tons. However, the revised production is still a record - high level. Weather problems have caused some damage to the crops, especially the late and irregular rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul [9] - USDA's monthly soybean crushing report shows that the soybean crushing volume in the United States in January 2026 was 227.8 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. This data is slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels. As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year surge of 33.9%. This data also exceeded market expectations and was the highest level since April 2023 [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include: East China third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, East China fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar to RMB exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][15][19][25][29][33]

Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to a short-term oil price premium of approximately $5 to $6 per barrel, primarily due to disruptions in the transportation capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil opened significantly higher, with an initial increase of nearly 13% to around $81 per barrel, before retracting to approximately $78 per barrel, reflecting a 7% increase [2]. - The future trajectory of oil prices will largely depend on the extent and duration of the impact on transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure - If the transportation capacity of the Strait of Hormuz is severely affected for an extended period, global oil transportation may face significant disruptions [3]. - The Strait of Hormuz is vital, with up to 20 million tons of liquid products, including 14 million barrels of crude oil, passing through daily, accounting for one-third of global maritime oil trade [3]. Group 3: OPEC and Global Supply - OPEC announced an increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, but this may not be sufficient to counteract rising oil prices if the conflict persists [3]. - In the event of a prolonged conflict, finding alternative routes for oil transport may prove challenging, especially for OPEC members reliant on the Strait for exports [4]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - Global oil supply remains manageable if the conflict does not extend significantly, with OPEC's planned production increase expected to maintain a supply surplus in the long term [5]. - Oil prices are projected to remain low in 2025, fluctuating between $60 and $80 per barrel, influenced by OPEC's production strategies and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The overall demand for oil is showing moderate recovery but lacks strong positive drivers, leading to a phase of weak demand growth [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [4][13][14]. - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas could not be transported out of the Middle East. Crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot prices rose significantly, and the basis discount slightly converged**: As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 67.74 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 469.0 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 28.3 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 closed at 488.4 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 27.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree slightly converged, and the basis between them was 19.5 yuan per barrel [8]. - **1.2 Geopolitical risks weakened, and crude oil gave back its premium**: After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [13][14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintained an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slowed Down - **2.1 OPEC+ production increase rhythm slowed down, and the supply excess expectation remained**: In April 2023, eight countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, etc. announced a voluntary production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil, and in November 2023, they announced an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil. These two production cut measures were extended many times. However, during this period, the crude oil production of countries such as the US and Canada increased, causing OPEC to lose some market share. Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia launched a systematic and phased production increase policy, shifting their production strategy from "production cut to maintain prices" in the past two years to "production increase to stabilize the market and compete for market share". The actual production of OPEC showed that the strong production increase expectation was fulfilled. In December 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day [23][24][25]. - **2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity maintained a high level**: The capacity expansion of non - OPEC+ countries further exacerbated the supply excess. The production of South American oil - producing countries represented by Brazil and Guyana continued to rise, and US shale oil showed amazing resilience. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 0 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.702 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [37]. - **2.3 The Northern Hemisphere's crude oil demand will enter the off - season**: As the world's largest crude oil consumer, the US has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After mid - February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand factor will weaken, and the inventory will change from destocking to stockpiling. EIA and IEA both predicted an oversupply of global oil in the future, and the demand growth rate in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023. The oil consumption in India, which was expected to be the growth point of demand, declined in the first seven months of 2025 [39][40][41]. - **2.4 US crude oil inventory increased significantly, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly**: As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [42]. - **2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in 2025**: In 2025, China's crude oil market showed the characteristics of "record - high imports, stable production growth, and processing transformation". In December 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 55.97 million tons (13.18 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the cumulative crude oil imports in 2025 reached 577.73 million tons (11.55 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In December 2025, China's crude oil production remained stable, and the crude oil processing speeded up. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors. The import volume will remain at a high level, and the consumption structure will be optimized [46][47][49]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Broke Out in Multiple Areas, and Crude Oil Premiums Increased - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting at the same time". The core of the crisis was the extreme game between the US and Iran around the nuclear issue and regional dominance. The Red Sea shipping crisis resonated with the US - Iran confrontation, and the intervention of major - power games made the Middle East crisis more global. This geopolitical storm has directly pushed up international oil prices, and if the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through $100 per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 The Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - Since February 2026, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and strong trend, and the market's long - making power has also increased. As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [67].

Group 1 - The core view is that the supply and demand for PX and PTA are expected to marginally improve this year, with the PX-naphtha price spread starting to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th [2][3] - The oil and petrochemical index performed generally this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector showed the best performance within the petrochemical industry, increasing by 1.63% [2] - The crude oil prices have risen, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories [2] Group 2 - In the polyester sector, the price of polyester filament remains stable, with varying inventory days for different varieties in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in the operating rate of weaving machines [2] - In the olefins market, the sample PE spot prices have increased, while the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins has decreased [2] - The focus is on the progress of PTA's anti-involution and PX profit recovery, which, if successful, would benefit polyester filament [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the supply and demand for PX and PTA are expected to marginally improve this year, with a focus on the price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) which has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th [1][2] - The oil and petrochemical index performed generally this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week, while the oilfield services sector showed the best performance within the petrochemical industry, increasing by 1.63% [1][2] Group 2 - Crude oil prices have risen, with an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories [3] - Polyester filament prices remain stable, with varying inventory days for different varieties in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a decline in weaving machine operating rates [3] - For olefins, sample PE spot prices have increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins have decreased [3] - If demand improves and there is progress in eliminating outdated production capacity, it will benefit the midstream refining sector [4] - Attention is drawn to the progress of PTA's anti-involution and PX profit recovery, which, if successful, will benefit polyester filament [5]