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1.4nm芯片,贵得吓人
虎嗅APP· 2025-06-03 09:58
Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing increasing costs and challenges with the introduction of advanced manufacturing processes, particularly TSMC's 1.4nm technology, which is expected to significantly raise production costs and require substantial investments from leading tech companies [3][5][10]. Cost Analysis - TSMC's 1.4nm process is projected to cost up to $45,000 per wafer, representing a 50% increase compared to the 2nm process [5][10]. - The new manufacturing node will utilize second-generation GAA transistors and is expected to improve speed by 15% and reduce power consumption by 30% compared to the 2nm process [7][8]. - The anticipated production of 1.4nm chips is set for 2028, and the technology will not support back-side power delivery [7][8]. Key Customers - Major customers for TSMC's 1.4nm technology are expected to include top-tier companies such as NVIDIA, Apple, MediaTek, Intel, Qualcomm, and Broadcom [12][15]. - NVIDIA's contribution to TSMC's revenue is projected to increase from 5%-10% in 2023 to over 20% by 2025, driven by demand for AI chips [13]. - Apple's orders for TSMC's 2nm technology could reach NT$1 trillion (approximately $33 billion) by 2025, potentially increasing its share of TSMC's revenue significantly [14]. Future Projections - The costs of future wafers are expected to continue rising, with the potential for a 20% increase in lithography costs for future nodes if current power levels for light sources do not improve [18][20]. - The semiconductor industry is closely monitoring the balance between performance improvements and cost increases as new technologies are developed [21].