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1.4nm芯片,贵得吓人
虎嗅APP· 2025-06-03 09:58
Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing increasing costs and challenges with the introduction of advanced manufacturing processes, particularly TSMC's 1.4nm technology, which is expected to significantly raise production costs and require substantial investments from leading tech companies [3][5][10]. Cost Analysis - TSMC's 1.4nm process is projected to cost up to $45,000 per wafer, representing a 50% increase compared to the 2nm process [5][10]. - The new manufacturing node will utilize second-generation GAA transistors and is expected to improve speed by 15% and reduce power consumption by 30% compared to the 2nm process [7][8]. - The anticipated production of 1.4nm chips is set for 2028, and the technology will not support back-side power delivery [7][8]. Key Customers - Major customers for TSMC's 1.4nm technology are expected to include top-tier companies such as NVIDIA, Apple, MediaTek, Intel, Qualcomm, and Broadcom [12][15]. - NVIDIA's contribution to TSMC's revenue is projected to increase from 5%-10% in 2023 to over 20% by 2025, driven by demand for AI chips [13]. - Apple's orders for TSMC's 2nm technology could reach NT$1 trillion (approximately $33 billion) by 2025, potentially increasing its share of TSMC's revenue significantly [14]. Future Projections - The costs of future wafers are expected to continue rising, with the potential for a 20% increase in lithography costs for future nodes if current power levels for light sources do not improve [18][20]. - The semiconductor industry is closely monitoring the balance between performance improvements and cost increases as new technologies are developed [21].
1.4nm,贵的吓人!
半导体行业观察· 2025-06-03 01:26
Core Viewpoint - Major technology companies like Apple, MediaTek, and Qualcomm are targeting TSMC's 2nm process, which has begun accepting orders at a cost of $30,000 per wafer, presenting a significant challenge for the next generation of process nodes. The subsequent 1.4nm "A" process is expected to be even more expensive, with costs potentially reaching $45,000 per wafer, a 50% increase compared to the 2nm node [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections 1.4nm Process Cost and Features - TSMC's A14 (1.4nm) manufacturing technology promises significant improvements in performance, power consumption, and transistor density compared to the N2 (2nm) process. The A14 process is expected to cost up to $45,000 per wafer, which is a 50% increase from the 2nm node [3][5]. - The A14 process will utilize TSMC's second-generation GAA (Gate-All-Around) nanosheet transistors and NanoFlex Pro technology, which allows for greater design flexibility. It is projected to achieve a 10-15% speed improvement, a 25-30% reduction in power consumption, and a logic density increase of approximately 1.23 times compared to the N2 process [5][7]. Potential Customers for 1.4nm Process - TSMC's top customers, including Nvidia, Apple, MediaTek, Intel, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, are likely to adopt the 1.4nm process. Nvidia is expected to significantly increase its contribution to TSMC's revenue, projected to rise from 5-10% in 2023 to over 20% by 2025 [8][9]. - Apple is anticipated to place orders worth approximately NT$1 trillion (around $33 billion) for 2nm technology by 2025, which could increase its share of TSMC's revenue significantly [9][10]. Future Cost Trends - The costs of wafers are expected to continue rising, with the 1.4nm process not utilizing expensive High NA EUV lithography technology, indicating potential for further price increases in future nodes [12][13]. - Analysis suggests that if the light source power does not increase, the overall lithography costs for future nodes could rise by up to 20% compared to the current 3nm baseline [14][16]. - The semiconductor industry is observing rising costs in EDA and IP, which may contribute to the overall increase in chip production costs in the future [17].