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财说丨上市以来半年报首亏,晨光新材的“硅烷寒冬”有多冷?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-20 23:10
Core Viewpoint - Morning Light New Materials (605399.SH) has issued a profit warning, predicting a net loss of 3.5 to 5.1 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 108.35% to 112.16% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's non-recurring net profit is expected to decline sharply by 228.87% to 273.31%, with losses projected between 29 to 39 million yuan, reaching a new low since its listing [1][2]. - Morning Light's stock price peaked at 18.44 yuan per share on the announcement day, following three consecutive days of trading at the upper limit [2]. - The gross profit margin has plummeted from a high of 42.56% in 2021 to 14.84% in 2024, with a net profit margin turning negative at -2.04% in the first quarter of 2025 [10][15]. Group 2: Industry Context - The functional silane industry is facing an oversupply crisis, with production capacity expected to reach 70.25 million tons in 2024, while demand is only projected at 27.25 million tons, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. - The average selling prices of key products are declining, with amino silane prices dropping by 19.1% from 25,148.61 yuan/ton in 2023 to 20,344.83 yuan/ton in 2024 [6][7]. - The overall market size for the functional silane industry is only 5.773 billion yuan, slightly above Morning Light's market capitalization [5]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company is experiencing increased construction costs and a decline in product prices due to oversupply, which has led to a significant drop in profitability [2][13]. - Morning Light's debt levels have surged, with the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 10.36% in 2022 to 33.75% in the first quarter of 2025 [15]. - Cash flow from operating activities has drastically decreased, with a projected cash flow of 40.36 million yuan in 2024, down 80% year-on-year, and a net outflow of 16.36 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is continuing to expand its production capacity, which may further strain its financial resources [14][19]. - The risk of inventory devaluation is significant, with a reported inventory balance of 210 million yuan as of the end of 2024, representing 13% of current assets [18]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing price wars and increased competition from larger firms may further exacerbate the company's financial difficulties [9][19].