据证券之星公开数据整理，近期晨光新材(605399)发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入 5.17亿元，同比下降10.39%，归母净利润-428.99万元，同比下降110.23%。按单季度数据看，第二季度 营业总收入2.85亿元，同比下降6.14%，第二季度归母净利润44.03万元，同比下降97.29%。本报告期晨 光新材三费占比上升明显，财务费用、销售费用和管理费用总和占总营收同比增幅达94.83%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现不尽如人意。其中，毛利率12.17%，同比减18.25%，净利 率-0.84%，同比减111.58%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计5193.69万元，三费占营收比10.04%， 同比增94.83%，每股净资产6.95元，同比减1.06%，每股经营性现金流-0.0元，同比增95.05%，每股收 益-0.01元，同比减107.69% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 5.77亿 | 5.17亿 | -10.39% | | 归母浄利润（元） | 4192.4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the night - session of coking coal has risen, and attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to market information disturbances [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price is 9,000 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 662,196 lots and an open interest of 271,943 lots. Compared with previous periods, the closing price, trading volume, and open interest have changed significantly - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price is 52,985 yuan/ton, trading volume is 592,822 lots, and open interest is 139,739 lots [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is - 65 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short inter - period arbitrage is 55.0 yuan/ton - Polysilicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract is - 2575.0 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Premium and Discount Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium and discount vary when benchmarked against different types, such as + 505 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530 - Polysilicon: The spot premium and discount when benchmarked against N - type recycled materials is - 5985 yuan/ton [1] - **Price and Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, and the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan is negative - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled materials is 47000 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 16.9 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: Social inventory is 54.7 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.0 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.7 million tons - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 23.3 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - Industrial silicon: The cost of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, and petroleum coke varies by region - Polysilicon: The prices of relevant raw materials such as trichlorosilane and silicon powder are provided [1] - **Photovoltaic Product Data**: - For polysilicon - related photovoltaic products, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with the profit data of related enterprises [1] Macro and Industry News - The first - phase project of Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone is in the final stage of construction. The project has a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan, with a planned two - phase implementation. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of industrial silicon and 50,000 tons of high - purity ferrosilicon, with an annual output value of 2.94 billion yuan [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view - The trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Yantai Huaxing Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. and the two chemical giants, Xingfa Group and Wanhua Chemical, marks a significant step in the strategic partnership focused on high-end silicone materials, indicating a deepening cooperation in the silicon materials sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Formation and Ownership - Yantai Huaxing was established with a registered capital of 5 million yuan, with Wanhua Chemical holding a 51% stake and Xingfa Group holding 49% [2]. - The two companies previously established Hubei Xinghua Silicon Materials Co., Ltd. in June, with a registered capital of 50 million yuan, further solidifying their partnership in the silicon materials field [2][3]. Group 2: Market Potential and Demand - The global silicone monomer capacity is projected to reach approximately 8.96 million tons by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.46%, while China's capacity is expected to reach about 6.82 million tons, growing by 19.86% [3]. - The demand for high-performance silicone materials is anticipated to continue growing due to the rapid development of emerging industries such as renewable energy, 5G communications, and artificial intelligence [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages and Synergies - Xingfa Group, a leader in the phosphate chemical industry, has strong cost control capabilities in silicone production and has developed a complete industrial chain from phosphate mining to fine phosphorus chemicals and silicone new materials [1][3][6]. - The collaboration allows for resource supply complementarity, with Xingfa Group providing stable supplies of chloromethane, a key raw material for silicone monomer production, while Wanhua Chemical contributes its expertise in material application development and global sales networks [4][6]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - In 2024, Xingfa Group reported revenues of 28.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, and a net profit of 1.601 billion yuan, up 14.33% [6][7]. - The company has a designed silicone monomer capacity of 600,000 tons per year and is actively expanding its production capabilities, including a planned investment of 1.495 billion yuan for a 100,000-ton/year industrial silicon project [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a complete industrial chain in the silicon-based new materials sector, covering upstream silicon mining, organic silicon monomer synthesis, and downstream product manufacturing, making it the most comprehensive player in the domestic organic silicon industry [2]. - The company has established a fully integrated development model in crop protection, offering a complete range of herbicides and other agricultural products, and is a leader in global herbicide varieties [3]. - The company is accelerating its globalization efforts, establishing multiple overseas production bases and expanding its marketing network to over 130 countries and regions [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a registered capital of 15 million yuan for its new subsidiary, Zhejiang Xin'an Yushi Silicon Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on synthetic materials and high-quality synthetic rubber sales [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 283 million yuan (down 29.7%), 472 million yuan (down 12.6%), and 684 million yuan, respectively [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.59 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5% [5]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 96 in 2023 to 20 in 2027, reflecting an anticipated recovery in earnings [13]. Market Position - The company is the only domestic player with full coverage of downstream terminal products, offering over 3,000 types of products across various applications [2]. - It has established partnerships with several Fortune 500 companies, enhancing its market presence and credibility [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for its 2024 annual shareholder meeting, focusing on the approval of the 2024 financial report and dividend distribution plan, amidst a challenging economic environment that has impacted its profitability [1][35]. Meeting Details - The shareholder meeting is scheduled for June 26, 2025, at 14:00, with both on-site and online voting options available [1]. - The meeting will be hosted by the company's chairman, Mr. Luo Liguo [1]. Shareholder Rights and Responsibilities - Shareholders are entitled to various rights, including speaking, questioning, and voting, and must adhere to the meeting's order and regulations [2][3]. - Shareholders must register and provide valid identification to participate in the meeting [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 26.69 billion, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 33.64% to RMB 1.74 billion due to economic fluctuations and declining product prices [12][33]. - The company’s total assets reached RMB 90.77 billion, reflecting an 8.91% increase from the previous year [33]. Operational Highlights - The company maintained its leading position in the industrial silicon and organic silicon sectors through refined management and technological innovation, achieving stable gross margins despite market price fluctuations [8][12]. - Significant projects include the production line for high-purity polysilicon and the carbon silicon particle project, which have commenced operations [8]. Research and Development - The company is enhancing its R&D capabilities, focusing on high-value downstream products and breaking through technological barriers in key materials [9][10]. - Investments in R&D are aimed at developing new products for emerging sectors such as 5G and electric vehicles [24]. Sustainability Initiatives - The company is committed to green development, aligning with national carbon reduction strategies, and is implementing measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions [12][25]. - A digital transformation strategy is being pursued to improve operational efficiency and sustainability across the supply chain [11][25]. Future Plans - The company plans to optimize production management, enhance resource allocation, and continue investing in core business areas to maintain competitive advantages [23][24]. - Key initiatives for 2025 include strengthening the innovation management system and advancing digital transformation efforts [24][25].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: The upside potential is limited, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: It is recommended to short on the futures market [1] Group 2: Core Views - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2507: The closing price is 7,475 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 539,994 lots and an open interest of 177,663 lots [1] - PS2507: The closing price is 34,105 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 123,726 lots and an open interest of 64,383 lots [1] Basis and Price - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against different benchmarks varies, and prices in different regions have declined over different time periods [1] - Polysilicon: The N-type refeed material price is 36,500 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to a month ago [1] Profit - Silicon plant profit: In Xinjiang and Yunnan, it remains in the negative range, with some changes over time [1] - Polysilicon enterprise profit: It is -4.7 yuan/kg, showing a certain degree of change [1] Inventory - Industrial silicon: Social, enterprise, and industry inventories show different trends, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 26.9 tons, with a slight change [1] Raw Material Cost - Various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have price changes in different regions [1] Other Related Industries - Organic silicon: DMC price and enterprise profit have changed [1] - Aluminum alloy: ADC12 price and recycled aluminum enterprise profit have changed [1] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On June 5, the Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main structure construction stage after the successful first steel structure hoisting of the 1 smelting workshop, with a total investment of nearly 1.5 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - North Beihai is leveraging its abundant quartz sand resources to develop a silicon-based new materials industry, significantly contributing to the local and regional industrial economy [1][4][5] - In 2024, the photovoltaic materials industry in Beihai is projected to achieve an output value of 11.28 billion yuan, highlighting its growing importance [2] Resource Advantages - Beihai is one of the three major high-quality quartz sand bases in China, with proven reserves exceeding 2.5 billion tons and potential reserves over 4 billion tons, featuring a silicon dioxide content of over 99.5% [3] - The local quartz sand is characterized by high silicon content and low iron content, making it suitable for photovoltaic glass production, which reduces production costs by approximately 100 yuan per ton compared to other regions [3] Strategic Planning - The Guangxi government is actively supporting the development of the silicon-based new materials industry in Beihai, aligning with national policies to promote local resource processing and industrial transformation [4] - Beihai has established a comprehensive industrial chain from quartz sand processing to photovoltaic glass and components, recognized as a national characteristic industrial cluster [5] Technological Innovation - Beihai is enhancing its research and development capabilities by collaborating with institutions like Wuhan University of Technology to establish a technology research center focused on silicon materials [7] - The introduction of advanced production technologies and automated production lines is ensuring high-quality output and energy efficiency in the silicon-based new materials industry [7][8] Market Positioning - Beihai's strategic location as a key node in the "Belt and Road" initiative, along with its favorable logistics and business environment, positions it well for the growth of the silicon-based new materials sector [9] - The establishment of a silicon-based materials research institute aims to support national strategies in semiconductor and renewable energy industries, enhancing technological competitiveness [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 is under pressure due to the decline in prices of industrial silicon and other products [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 26,692 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.64% to 1,740 million yuan [5] - The report highlights significant growth in industrial silicon production and sales, with a production increase of 38.1% to 1,870,000 tons in 2024 [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing production costs and expanding into high-value-added areas such as organic silicon deep processing and silicon-based new materials [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 266.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.40 billion yuan, with a significant decline in profitability due to lower product prices [5][9] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 52.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.60 billion yuan, down 50.81% year-on-year [5][7] Production and Sales - The company’s industrial silicon revenue reached 138 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.10%, while organic silicon revenue was 122 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1% [6] - The production of industrial silicon in Q1 2025 was 36.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.1%, but sales volume increased by 53.2% [7] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 14.6%, a decline of 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling product prices [7] - The average selling price of industrial silicon in Q1 2025 was 9,342 yuan per ton, down 29.8% year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued pressure on earnings due to declining prices of industrial silicon and organic silicon products, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [9][10] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,897 million yuan, 2,600 million yuan, and 3,368 million yuan, respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 26.692 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.64% to 1.740 billion yuan [1][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, down 3.47% year-on-year, with a net profit of 260 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 50.81% [1][7]. - The overall market for industrial silicon and organic silicon remains weak, impacting the company's performance, but it continues to enhance capacity and reduce costs, maintaining a relatively stable gross margin [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 26.584 billion yuan, with a projected decrease to 26.160 billion yuan in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 31.690 billion yuan in 2026E and 38.608 billion yuan in 2027E [2][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from 1.847 billion yuan in 2025E to 2.676 billion yuan in 2026E and 3.408 billion yuan in 2027E [8][14]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 34, 23, and 18 for the years 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [7][8]. Industry Position and Developments - The company holds a leading position in the industrial silicon and organic silicon markets, with an industrial silicon capacity of 1.22 million tons per year and organic silicon monomer capacity of 1.73 million tons per year [7]. - The company is expanding into silicon-based new materials, with significant projects in the photovoltaic sector, including a 200,000-ton high-purity polysilicon project and a 20GW photovoltaic module project [7]. - The company has successfully overcome technical barriers in silicon carbide production, with 6-inch substrates in full production and 8-inch substrates in small batch production [7].