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钼价创年内新高,短期有望继续上涨
Minmetals Securities· 2025-06-11 02:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - Molybdenum prices have reached a new high for the year, with molybdenum concentrate prices at 3840 CNY/ton and ferromolybdenum prices at 250,100 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 19.6% and 19.3% respectively since April [2][10] - The demand for molybdenum remains strong, driven by stable growth in steel procurement and significant increases in the production of molybdenum-containing stainless steel, particularly in the shipbuilding and wind power sectors [3][16] - Domestic molybdenum supply is showing rigid characteristics, with a decrease in growth rate compared to the previous year, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][5] Summary by Sections Molybdenum Price Trends - As of June 6, 2025, molybdenum concentrate prices reached 3840 CNY/ton, and ferromolybdenum prices reached 250,100 CNY/ton, marking a significant increase since April [2][10] Demand Analysis - Steel procurement has shown stable growth, with monthly procurement volumes exceeding 10,000 tons, and a total of 65,000 tons procured from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6% [3][13] - The production of molybdenum-containing stainless steel surged, with 316/316L stainless steel production reaching approximately 1.172 million tons from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 96% [3][16] Supply Dynamics - Molybdenum concentrate production from January to April 2025 totaled 107,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while ferromolybdenum production reached 79,640 tons, up 10.8% year-on-year [4] - The growth rate of domestic molybdenum supply is declining, indicating a tightening supply situation, with the production of ferromolybdenum outpacing that of molybdenum concentrate [4][5]