证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩下游提价，产业链上下游联动推动钨价新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2026/2/16-2026/2/27） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | | | 稀土：供给格局紧张下游补库，氧化镨钕突破新高。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 4.71% 至 89 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 9.83%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽上涨 1.56%至 652.5 万元 / ...

中信建投：赛恩斯的几点更新 25业绩：有2600万股权激励费用可以还原 中信建投：赛恩斯的几点更新 25业绩：有2600万股权激励费用可以还原 巨龙铼项目：巨龙二期预计26年初投产，届时3万吨钼精矿产能（实物吨）预计对应约6吨金属铼。 钼精矿采购中铼不计价，利润亦不分成，但赛恩斯需承担一定期限内的钼精矿价格下跌风险，钼钨铼保持良好需 求，钼价近期稳步上涨，对公司也是利好。 洛钼铼项目：洛钼公众号宣布其铼回收进入试运行，年产能400 巨龙铼项目：巨龙二期预计26年初投产，届时3万吨钼精矿产能（实物吨）预计对应约6吨金属铼。 钼精矿采购中铼不计价，利润亦不分成，但赛恩斯需承担一定期限内的钼精矿价格下跌风险，钼钨铼保持良好需 求，钼价近期稳步上涨，对公司也是利好。 洛钼铼项目：洛钼公众号宣布其铼回收进入试运行，年产能400kg。 赛恩斯承接epc，后续赛恩斯将拥有优先采购权。 ...

25业绩：有2600万股权激励费用可以还原 巨龙铼项目：巨龙二期预计26年初投产，届时3万吨钼精矿产能（实物吨）预计对应约6吨金属铼。 钼精矿采购中铼不计价，利润亦不分成，但赛恩斯需承担一定期限内的钼精矿价格下跌风险，钼钨铼保持良好需 求，钼价近期稳步上涨，对公司也是利好。 洛钼铼项目：洛钼公众号宣布其铼回收进入试运行，年产能400kg。 赛恩斯的几点更新 25业绩：有2600万股权激励费用可以还原 巨龙铼项目：巨龙二期预计26年初投产，届时3万吨钼精矿产能（实物吨）预计对应约6吨金属铼。 钼精矿采购中铼不计价，利润亦不分成，但赛恩斯需承担一定期限内的钼精矿价格下跌风险，钼钨铼保持良好需 求，钼价近期稳步上涨，对公司也是利好。 洛钼铼项目：洛钼公众号宣布其铼回收进入试运行，年产能400kg。< 赛恩斯的几点更新 赛恩斯承接epc，后续赛恩斯将拥有优先采购权。 ...

3/19-20日·2026虚拟电厂系列研讨会 项目要求投标人五年内至少承担过1项海拔4000米以上、装机容量100MW及以上集中式光伏发电项目或电化学储能 项目总承包(EPC)或者施工总承包(PC)业绩(在建或者已投产)。 本项目不接受联合体投标。 原文如下： 文丨中国招标投标公共服务平台 北极星储能网讯：2026年2月13日，西藏日喀则市昂仁县朱诺铜矿配套100MW光伏+100MW/500MWh储能项目发布 EPC总承包招标公告，项目资金来源为自筹资金56000万元，招标人为西藏耀晖新能源全资控股的昂仁县红日绿能新 能源有限公司。 据悉，朱诺铜矿是紫金矿业2023年并购的超大型铜矿项目，铜资源量172万吨，项目总投资约83.93亿元，采选规模 为1,800万吨/年，主要产品为铜精矿（含银）及钼精矿。项目计划于2026年6月底建成投产，生产服务年限为26年， 达产后年均产铜约7.6万吨、产银约19.7吨、产钼约1188吨。 本项目拟建总规模100W光伏+100MW/500MWh储能，新建1座220kV升压站。规划场址位于西藏日喀则市品仁县秋 窝乡，本次新建项目交流侧容量为100.595MW，直流侧容量为106 ...

2026年2月25日钼价和钢价一览 | | | 中钙在线主要钥产品与钢材报价表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2026年2月25日 | | | | | 产品名称 | | 规格/含量 | 中钨在线报价 | 涨跌 | 車位 | | | 領鉄 | Mo60 | 276,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | | 領精矿 | 40-45% | 4,250.00 | r | 元/吨度 | | | 領数的 | ≥98% | 191,000.00 | - | 71/吨 | | 书 | 四钥酸铵 | 级品 | 263,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 广 | 七钼酸铵 | 级品 | 268,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | | 組粉 | MP-1 | 505.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 相条 | Mo-1 | 507.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 氧化钼 | ≥51% | 4.320.00 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 废領 | WWWWWW10 VOden405100 COM | | CH | 元/千克 | ...

国金证券近日发布有色金属行业小金属双周报：氧化镨钕本期价格为84.98万元/吨，环比上涨13.51%。 氧化镝本期价格145.0万元/吨，环比上涨9.02%；氧化铽本期价格646.0万元/吨，环比上涨5.90%。近期 价格持续新高，我们认为或与2024-2025年发布的供给侧文件相关性较大，行业供改持续推进。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期（2.2-2.13，下同）申万小金属指数收39286.62点，环比上涨3.25%，跑赢申万有色指数10.21pcts， 跑赢沪深300指数4.23pcts。 稀土：氧化镨钕本期价格为84.98万元/吨，环比上涨13.51%。氧化镝本期价格145.0万元/吨，环比上涨 9.02%；氧化铽本期价格646.0万元/吨，环比上涨5.90%。近期价格持续新高，我们认为或与2024-2025 年发布的供给侧文件相关性较大，行业供改持续推进。中钇富铕矿加工费进一步上涨至4.1万元/吨，表 明冶炼出清、格局优化或持续兑现。12月我国稀土永磁出口量环比/同比分别-3%/+7%，单月出口量创 历史同期新高；2025年全年同比-1%，表明海外仍有较大补库需求。稀土板块将继续演化估值业绩双 升，202 ...

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market experienced a positive start after the holiday, with most product prices significantly increasing. Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by approximately 80 yuan/ton, molybdenum iron prices increased by about 5,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum powder prices went up by around 5 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Key factors influencing the molybdenum market include a reduction in molybdenum product imports during the Spring Festival and a decrease in production from domestic manufacturers, both contributing to rising prices. Additionally, international molybdenum prices fluctuated significantly during the holiday period [1][4]. Group 2: Steel Inventory Data - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises reached 15.11 million tons in early February 2026, an increase of 400,000 tons (2.7%) compared to the previous period, and a rise of 970,000 tons (6.9%) since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - Year-on-year comparisons show a decrease of 1.1 million tons (6.8%) compared to the same period last year, and a reduction of 1.02 million tons (6.3%) compared to two years ago. Regionally, steel inventories increased in Northeast (350,000 tons), Northwest (40,000 tons), Southwest (30,000 tons), and Central South (240,000 tons) regions, while inventories decreased in North China (160,000 tons) and East China (110,000 tons) [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing demand for overseas stockpiling, particularly in the context of the upcoming supply-side documents for 2024-2025 [3][18]. - Tin prices have shown volatility due to macroeconomic factors, with Indonesia considering a ban on tin raw material exports, which could create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies [4][28]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased strategic stockpiling in the U.S. and domestic demand from both civilian and military sectors [4][41]. - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover as exports stabilize, supported by a steady demand in the photovoltaic glass sector [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing and expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased defense spending [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Key commodity prices showed varied performance, with rare earth oxides like praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 13.51%, while tin ingot prices decreased by 10.74% [4][16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide reached 849,800 CNY/ton, up 13.51% [3][19]. - The sector is expected to see dual growth in valuation and performance, with key companies to watch including China Rare Earth, Zhong Rare Metals, and Northern Rare Earth [3][19]. Tin - Tin ingot prices fell to 378,200 CNY/ton, down 10.74% [4][28]. - The potential export ban by Indonesia could lead to a new price cycle for tin [4][28]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 696,700 CNY/ton, up 15.99% [4][41]. - The U.S. strategic stockpiling initiative may elevate tungsten's market priority [4][41]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased to 165,100 CNY/ton, up 0.62% [5][47]. - The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to price increases [5][47]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices reached 4,165 CNY/ton, up 2.97% [6][51]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased military spending will support price growth [6][51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points, respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing overseas inventory demand. The prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 13.51%, dysprosium oxide by 9.02%, and terbium oxide by 5.90% [3][18][19]. - Tin prices have shown volatility, with a decrease of 10.74% in the current period. The potential ban on tin raw material exports from Indonesia may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies, positively impacting tin prices in the long term [4][28]. - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, with tungsten concentrate rising by 15.99% and ammonium paratungstate by 15.11%. The report suggests that the strategic reserve initiatives in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority in global markets [4][40]. - Antimony prices have shown a slight increase, with antimony ingot prices up by 0.62% and antimony concentrate by 2.13%. The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to a price rebound [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices have stabilized, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by 2.97% and ferromolybdenum by 3.33%. The report notes that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support further price increases [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Commodity prices for rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum have shown upward trends, while tin prices have decreased [16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Insights 2.1 Rare Earths - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the rising prices of rare earths, with significant export demand expected to continue [3][18][19]. 2.2 Tin - The potential export ban from Indonesia could lead to increased demand for tin processing, positively affecting prices in the long run [4][28]. 2.3 Tungsten - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten in global markets, with prices rising significantly due to supply constraints and increased military spending [4][40]. 2.4 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as export conditions improve, with a focus on high-growth resource companies [5][47]. 2.5 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are projected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased demand from the defense sector [6][51].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing significant differentiation, with basic metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc showing notable declines, while small metals such as tungsten and rare earths are performing strongly, indicating a distinct market trend [2][3]. Market Performance - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%, domestic) priced at 696,700.00 CNY/ton on February 11, 2026, up approximately 53.7% from 453,200.00 CNY/ton on December 31, 2025 [3]. - Ammonium paratungstate (88.5%, domestic) increased from 668,500.00 CNY/ton to 1,013,500.00 CNY/ton, a rise of 51.61% [3]. - Rare earth prices have also surged, with domestic praseodymium-neodymium oxide (≥99%, Nd2O3 75%) reaching 860,000.00 CNY/ton, a 39.3% increase from 617,500.00 CNY/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of small metals is characterized by strong rigidity and superior demand structure, supported by policies such as export controls and environmental restrictions, which enhance their strategic attributes [2][5]. - The global mining sector is in a weak supply cycle with limited new capacity, while demand is bolstered by the green energy transition and advancements in production technology [5][9]. Investment Outlook - Companies in the small metal sector are expected to report positive earnings in 2025, with rare earths, antimony, and tungsten being particularly favored due to tight supply and emerging demand [2][7]. - Notable earnings forecasts include Northern Rare Earth's projected net profit of 2.176 to 2.356 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 116.67% to 134.60% [7]. Market Trends - The rare earth sector is anticipated to improve significantly in 2025, driven by sustained high prices, with neodymium oxide prices expected to rise by 58.29% [7][8]. - Analysts predict that tungsten prices will maintain a high level and show a strong upward trend due to ongoing supply-demand tightness and strategic importance [10]. Internal Market Differentiation - Despite the overall positive outlook for small metals, some segments, such as magnesium, are underperforming, with magnesium ingot prices showing only a 4.08% increase [6]. - Industry leaders are adjusting asset prices to alleviate operational pressures, reflecting the current challenges faced in the magnesium sector [6].