钼精矿创近 29 个月新高，钨精矿价格续创 2011 年以来新高水平 2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业研究 要点 流动性：7 月 M1 和 M2 增速差收窄至-3.2 个百分点，创近 49 个月新高。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 7 月值为 46.09，环比上月 -6.16%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 7 月为-3.2 个百分点，环比+0.5 个百分点。 基建和地产链条：8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹-0.91%、水泥价格指数+1.70%、橡胶+0.00%、焦炭 +3.52%、焦煤+0.47%、铁矿-0.65%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥 、 沥 青 、 全 钢 胎 开 工 率 环 比 分 别 +0.03pct 、 -18.25pct 、 +1.3pct 、 +1.67pct；（3）8 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+4.64%。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润 ...

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industries discussed [2][3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with expectations of demand recovery in mid-September, despite current seasonal weakness [15]. - The aluminum sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with a slight increase in processing rates among leading companies [16]. - The gold market remains highly active, influenced by international geopolitical developments and trade agreements [17]. - The rare earth sector is experiencing significant price increases and regulatory changes, indicating a bullish outlook [35]. - The antimony market is expected to see price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [36]. - The molybdenum market is witnessing price increases driven by rising demand from steel manufacturers [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased slightly, with LME copper at $9734.50 per ton and SHFE copper at ¥78,700 per ton [15]. - Aluminum prices also fell, with LME aluminum at $2593.00 per ton and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,600 per ton [16]. - Gold prices showed a minor increase, with COMEX gold at $3383.50 per ounce [17]. 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - The copper processing fee index dropped to -$41.15 per ton, and domestic copper inventory decreased by 0.2 thousand tons to 13.17 thousand tons [15]. - The operating rate in the copper industry fell by 7.39% to 52.1% due to raw material shortages [15]. 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 thousand tons to 596 thousand tons, while the operating rate for aluminum processing companies rose by 0.5% to 60.0% [16]. - The complete cost of electrolytic aluminum is ¥16,718 per ton, with industry profits around ¥3,960 per ton [16]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by international trade agreements and geopolitical tensions, maintaining a volatile trading environment [17]. 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - The rare earth sector is seeing price increases, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at ¥622,300 per ton, up 11.61% [35]. - Antimony prices are expected to recover due to improved export conditions and domestic production cuts [36]. - Molybdenum prices are rising as demand from steel manufacturers increases, with molybdenum concentrate prices at ¥4,420 per ton [37]. 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Fundamental Updates 4.1 Rare Earth - Regulatory changes in the rare earth industry are expected to enhance market conditions, with significant price increases anticipated [35]. 4.2 Antimony - The antimony market is poised for recovery, supported by export expectations and production cuts [36]. 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are on the rise due to increased demand from the steel sector, with a notable recovery in steel procurement volumes [37].

公司代码：601958 公司简称：金钼股份 金堆城钼业股份有限公司 金堆城钼业股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整性，不 存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、 本半年度报告未经审计。 四、 公司负责人严平、主管会计工作负责人王镇及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）周超荣声 明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 无 六、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用 □不适用 本报告所涉及的未来计划、发展战略等前瞻性陈述，不构成公司对投资者的实质性承诺，请 投资者注意投资风险。 七、 是否存在被控股股东及其他关联方非经营性占用资金情况 否 八、 是否存在违反规定决策程序对外提供担保的情况 否 九、 是否存在半数以上董事无法保证公司所披露半年度报告的真实性、准确性和完整性 否 十、 重大风险提示 公司作为以钼产品产销为主体、国内国际一体化运营的国际化企业，全方位参与市场竞争， 可能面对的主要风险包括：地 ...

Fixed Income - Economic pressure is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with a focus on the bond market as a favorable investment opportunity. The current economic recovery is influenced by price adjustments, and the "anti-involution" policy has become a priority. The overall CPI and PPI improvements were below expectations in July, indicating a potential shift in economic growth momentum and income distribution structure [2][7][10] - The 10Y government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8% in the second half of the year, with current yields around 1.75%, presenting a favorable price-performance ratio. The report suggests a bullish outlook on long-duration municipal and capital bonds, as well as specific bank perpetual bonds [10][14] Nutritional Functional Food Industry - The nutritional functional food market in China is rapidly developing, with a market size projected to grow from CNY 233.1 billion in 2024 to CNY 349.9 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5%. The overall market for nutritional health foods is expected to reach CNY 522.3 billion in 2024 and CNY 720.3 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.6% [16][17] - Key players in the nutritional functional food sector include Kangbiter (brand operator), Wuxi Jinghai (raw material supplier), and Hengmei Health (contract manufacturer), indicating a well-structured industry chain [17] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical index increased by 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7%. Companies such as Sino Medical, Innovation Medical, and Guangsheng Tang saw significant stock price increases, indicating a broadening market trend in the pharmaceutical sector [26][27] - The report highlights the potential of tri-antibody therapies in cancer immunotherapy, with specific attention on Shanghai Yizhong's YXC-001 and other combinations, suggesting a promising future for these treatments [28][29] Metals and New Materials - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, driven by improved export volumes. The price of tungsten concentrate has also surpassed CNY 200,000 per ton due to supply constraints and rising demand [21][22] - The report notes that the controlled nuclear fusion industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with significant opportunities for upstream materials suppliers [24] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The demand for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) is expected to rise, particularly in data center applications, presenting opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally. The report emphasizes the importance of companies that supply upstream equipment and materials for SOFC [20][21] - Shaan Energy's new project in Guangdong aims to integrate power generation and data center operations, which is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects in the context of increasing green energy demand [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the export improvement has driven the continuous rise in praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices, with a recent increase of 4.99% to 557,500 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices have decreased by 1.83% and 1.90%, respectively [6][13] - The report emphasizes the strong demand for rare earths, particularly in the context of the U.S. Department of Defense's investment in MP Materials and its collaboration with Apple, which is expected to support the supply of key raw materials for electronic products [6] - The report suggests that the small metals sector is experiencing a high level of activity and potential growth, particularly in the context of controlled nuclear fusion materials, which are expected to benefit from ongoing technological breakthroughs and commercialization efforts [7] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - In the last two weeks, praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 4.99% to 557,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium oxide prices decreased by 1.83% to 1.61 million CNY/ton and by 1.90% to 6.975 million CNY/ton, respectively [6][13] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 1.87% to 4,365 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased by 1.28% to 277,000 CNY/ton [25] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 3.63% to 200,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 5.26% to 300,000 CNY/ton [33] Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 0.71% to 266,800 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 1.70% to 33,750 USD/ton [48] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 2.67% to 182,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 1.54% to 16,000 CNY/ton [50] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The report notes that the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant advancements in technology and potential benefits for upstream materials [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady demand but is facing challenges due to high prices suppressing procurement and weak terminal orders [1][14] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a mild recovery with increased operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2][15] - Gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset despite a slight decrease in price, influenced by geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt [3][16] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply tightening and policy changes, with prices showing an upward trend [4][36] - The antimony market is stabilizing with potential for price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel industry increases and supply remains tight [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased by 0.08% to $9,760.00 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.73% to 79,100 yuan per ton [1][14] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.46% to $2,603.00 per ton on LME, with a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum [2][15] - Gold prices decreased by 0.36% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with increased holdings in SPDR Gold Trust [3][16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - Domestic copper inventory decreased to 125,600 tons, with a forecasted slight drop in operating rates due to weak demand [1][14] 2.2 Aluminum - Operating rates in the aluminum processing sector increased to 59.5%, indicating a mild recovery [2][15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. debt levels [3][16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - Rare earth prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and policy changes, with significant benefits expected for leading companies in the sector [4][36] - Antimony prices are stabilizing with potential for recovery driven by export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise due to increased demand from the steel industry and low inventory levels [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40]

Core Insights - Molybdenum prices have reached a new high, with ferromolybdenum prices rising to approximately 280,000 yuan per ton, marking a significant increase in the market [1][2] - The increase in molybdenum prices is attributed to a combination of tight supply from upstream sources and increased demand from downstream industries, leading to a notable rise in transaction volumes [2][4] - Major steel companies in China have issued a joint statement to halt ferromolybdenum purchases to stabilize the industry and resist speculative pricing [3] Price Trends - Since April, molybdenum prices have increased significantly, with molybdenum concentrate prices rising over 1,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a more than 35% increase [2] - The price of molybdenum concentrate reached 4,380 yuan per ton, while the main price for ferromolybdenum also surged to 280,000 yuan per ton [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of molybdenum concentrate has been constrained due to production issues at some mines, leading to a decrease in output in August [2][5] - Molybdenum inventories are at their lowest levels in nearly three years, with downstream demand expected to grow, projecting a near 7% increase in molybdenum demand by 2025 [2][3] Industry Response - The joint statement from major steel companies emphasizes the need for industry self-discipline and cooperation to stabilize prices and ensure sustainable development across the molybdenum supply chain [3] - Despite the temporary halt in ferromolybdenum purchases by steel companies, the overall demand for ferromolybdenum remains strong, with significant bidding activity observed in August [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the tight supply situation for molybdenum concentrate is unlikely to change in the short term, maintaining high cost levels for ferromolybdenum [4][5] - The upcoming traditional peak demand season in September and October is expected to further support molybdenum prices, driven by government infrastructure investments and policy support [4][5]

Core Insights - Molybdenum prices have reached a new high, with ferromolybdenum prices rising to approximately 280,000 yuan per ton, marking a significant increase in demand and activity in the market [1][4] - The price of molybdenum concentrate has also surged, reaching 4,380 yuan per ton, driven by a combination of supply constraints and increased downstream demand [1][2] - The recent price increases are attributed to a tight supply situation and a recovery in demand, with expectations for continued growth in molybdenum demand through 2025 [2][5] Group 1: Price Trends - Molybdenum prices have been on an upward trend since April, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by over 1,000 yuan per ton, representing a rise of more than 35% [2] - The current price levels are the highest seen in the year, with significant activity in the market as major steel mills begin to bid for molybdenum [1][4] - The price increase is expected to benefit upstream molybdenum mining companies, while downstream companies may face increased operational pressures due to rising costs [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of molybdenum concentrate is at a near three-year low, with global molybdenum mine growth at only 1.2%, contributing to the price surge [2][5] - Domestic steel mills have reported a 10.47% increase in molybdenum bidding volume compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand [3] - Despite a recent joint statement from major steel companies to halt ferromolybdenum purchases, the overall market demand remains robust, with expectations for increased bidding activity in August [4][5] Group 3: Industry Responses - Major steel companies have called for a halt to speculative trading in the molybdenum market to stabilize prices and ensure they reflect true supply and demand [3] - The industry is focusing on maintaining a healthy supply chain for molybdenum, which is essential for high-end stainless steel production [3] - Analysts predict that the combination of government policies and increased infrastructure investment will support molybdenum demand in the coming months [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, with a total of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces. The market is influenced by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][12] - Industrial Metals: The seasonal peak is approaching, and attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction. Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations due to seasonal factors [4][14] - New Energy Metals: The mining operation at Jiangxiawo has been confirmed to be suspended with no plans for resumption in the short term. The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to resilient demand despite supply disruptions [19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths are showing slight weakness, but there is limited downside potential in the short term due to existing supply gaps [20] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Continuous increase in gold reserves by China and rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [11] - Industrial Metals: Seasonal peak approaching, focus on inventory reduction [14] - New Energy Metals: Suspension of mining operations at Jiangxiawo [19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices showing slight weakness [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 5.8%, with gold showing the largest increase among sub-sectors [24][28] - Notable stock performances include Kexin New Energy (+53.05%) and West Materials (-12.66%) [26] 3. Major Events - Macro: Trump criticizes Powell for delayed rate cuts; China's July PPI decreased by 3.6% [39] - Industry: China continues to increase gold reserves; Jiangxiawo mining operation confirmed to be suspended [44] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices remain stable with copper inventory increasing [47] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are rising due to a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [66]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with a slight increase in prices and a notable rise in production rates for various types of copper [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with slight increases in production and inventory levels [15] - The gold market maintains high attractiveness due to international geopolitical tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [16] - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and regulatory changes, benefiting leading companies in the field [34] - The antimony market is stabilizing with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements and domestic production cuts [37] - The molybdenum market remains bullish due to low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [38] - The tin market is experiencing upward momentum supported by strong inventory levels and improving macroeconomic conditions [39] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices increased by 1.40% to $9,768.00 per ton on LME, with a notable rise in production rates [14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.69% to $2,615.00 per ton on LME, with stable inventory levels [15] - Gold prices increased by 0.86% to $3,458.20 per ounce, driven by geopolitical factors [16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - The copper processing fee index rose to $38.06 per ton, with a significant increase in production rates across various sectors [14] 2.2 Aluminum - The operating capacity of alumina increased to 82.57%, reflecting recovery from maintenance [15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold holdings in SPDR increased by 4.84 tons, indicating strong demand [16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - The rare earth market is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [34] - The antimony market is stabilizing with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements [37] - The molybdenum market remains bullish due to low inventory levels and strong demand [38] 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Fundamental Updates 4.1 Rare Earth - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 1.84%, but supply constraints are expected to drive future price increases [34] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices remain stable, with expectations of recovery due to improved export conditions [37] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise due to low inventory and strong demand from the steel industry [38] 4.4 Tin - Tin prices increased by 1.61%, supported by strong inventory levels and improving demand conditions [39]