Summary of Molybdenum Market Insights Industry Overview - **Global Molybdenum Production**: Expected to reach approximately 270,000 tons in 2025, with the top 10 mines accounting for 32% of total production. China remains the core supply source, while overseas production is primarily from copper-molybdenum associated mines, significantly influenced by copper market cycles [1][2][6]. - **Global Molybdenum Consumption**: Anticipated to be 307,100 tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The growth rate is expected to slow to 3.2% in 2026, driven by sectors such as new energy, military, and semiconductors [1][8][14]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Demand Gap**: A significant supply-demand gap of 44,300 tons is projected for 2026, with the gap expected to remain between 30,000 to 40,000 tons from 2027 to 2028 due to high demand growth and a lack of large new mines [1][17][26]. - **Price Trends**: Molybdenum prices are expected to rise gradually, with average prices for molybdenum iron projected at 270,000 to 290,000 CNY/ton in 2026, increasing to 310,000 to 330,000 CNY/ton by 2028, reflecting annual growth rates of approximately 5% to 10% [1][22][39]. - **Domestic Supply Constraints**: Domestic supply is limited by total production quotas and environmental regulations, with flexibility being constrained. The Zijin Sanpinggou Molybdenum Mine, expected to start production in 2029, could alter the long-term supply landscape [1][18][19][34]. Detailed Consumption Breakdown - **Steel Alloys**: The steel sector remains the dominant consumer of molybdenum, with 2025 demand in stainless steel expected to be 92,000 tons, accounting for 30% of total demand. Low-alloy high-strength steel demand is projected at 81,000 tons, representing 26.4% of total demand [9][11][10]. - **Emerging High-End Applications**: New energy, military aerospace, and semiconductor sectors are expected to drive demand growth, with total demand in these areas reaching 38,000 tons in 2025 [13][14][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: As of early March 2026, global visible inventory is approximately 18,000 tons, indicating a low level of stock and a weak buffer against supply disruptions, which could lead to significant price volatility [1][22]. - **Cost Structure**: The cost of molybdenum production varies significantly, with low-cost mines generally having cash costs below 55,000 CNY/ton, while high-cost mines exceed 70,000 CNY/ton. This reflects the higher costs associated with domestic primary molybdenum mines [6][19]. - **Export Controls**: Specific export restrictions on high-purity molybdenum powders have been implemented, affecting military applications, while other products like molybdenum concentrate and molybdenum iron are not directly controlled [20][21]. Future Outlook - **Supply Growth**: The annual supply growth is expected to average between 15,000 to 20,000 tons over the next three years, with limited new capacity anticipated in 2026, but more significant increases expected in 2027 and 2028 due to copper expansion cycles [15][17]. - **Market Volatility**: Molybdenum prices are characterized by high volatility due to multiple demand drivers, including its strong correlation with the non-ferrous metal industry and high-end alloy requirements [29][38]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the critical dynamics of the molybdenum market, emphasizing the interplay between supply constraints, demand growth in emerging sectors, and the implications for pricing and investment opportunities.

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market remains stable, primarily due to the recent end of the Spring Festival holiday, with many traders not fully resuming normal trading activities [6][8] - In the molybdenum concentrate market, prices are stable around 4,250 yuan per ton due to limited downstream demand and suppliers' strong price support awareness, resulting in limited actual transaction volumes [2][7] - The international molybdenum price is higher than the domestic price, which suppresses the increase in imports of molybdenum products in China and supports the maintenance of prices by stockholders [2][7] Group 2: Molybdenum and Steel Pricing - Molybdenum iron prices are under pressure, with quotations around 276,000 yuan per ton, influenced by average steel procurement performance and the difficulty in reducing molybdenum concentrate prices [3][7] - The steel production data from the China Iron and Steel Association indicates that in early February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 17.5 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.75 million tons, reflecting a 9.6% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period [8] - Regional analysis shows that steel production decreased in several areas, including Northeast China (35,000 tons), North China (66,000 tons), East China (49,000 tons), Southwest China (9,000 tons), and Central South China (38,000 tons), while Northwest China saw an increase of 12,000 tons [8]

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market is maintaining a stable operation, with many traders entering vacation mode as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to reduced market participation and no significant price fluctuations [5][6] - Current prices for molybdenum concentrate, molybdenum iron, and molybdenum oxide are approximately 4,170 yuan/ton, 271,000 yuan/ton, and 4,240 yuan/ton respectively [5][6] Group 2: Steel Production Data - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced a total of 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2][6] - Regional production increases include 19,000 tons in Northeast China, 23,000 tons in North China, 19,000 tons in East China, and 6,000 tons in Central South China, while Northwest and Southwest China saw decreases of 5,000 tons and 3,000 tons respectively [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. has signed a cooperation and equity transfer agreement with Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co., Ltd. for the integrated development and deep processing of the Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine in Anhui Province, marking a significant step in enhancing resource utilization and economic benefits [1][9]. Group 1: Cooperation Plan - The cooperation includes two main components: smelting cooperation and equity transaction [2]. - A smelting company will be established in the county where Jinsan Molybdenum Co., Ltd. operates, with a capital structure aligned with the development scale of the Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine [2]. - Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co., Ltd. will hold 51% and Jinsan Molybdenum Co., Ltd. will hold 49% of the smelting company's shares, with Jinduicheng Molybdenum leading the construction and operation [2]. Group 2: Equity Transaction - Zijin Mining will transfer 24% of Jinsan Molybdenum Co., Ltd. to Jinduicheng Molybdenum for a consideration of RMB 173.087 million [3]. - Post-transfer, Zijin Mining will hold 60%, Jinduicheng Molybdenum will hold 34%, and the remaining 6% will be held by Jinzhai County Urban Development Investment Co., Ltd. [3]. Group 3: Preconditions for Cooperation - Jinduicheng Molybdenum is required to initiate the establishment and funding of the smelting company promptly after signing the agreement, with a deadline for completion by December 2026 [4]. - If Jinduicheng Molybdenum fails to meet investment and operational commitments, Zijin Mining has the right to reclaim the transferred equity [4]. Group 4: Payment Terms - The payment for the equity transfer will be made in two installments: 50% within 20 working days of the agreement's effectiveness and the remaining 50% within 10 working days after the completion of the business registration changes for Jinsan Molybdenum [5]. Group 5: Corporate Governance of Jinsan Molybdenum - Jinsan Molybdenum will revise its articles of association to establish a modern corporate governance structure, including a shareholders' meeting, board of directors, and supervisory board [6][7][8]. Group 6: Purpose and Impact of the Transaction - The Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine is a rare, large undeveloped porphyry-type molybdenum mine with significant resource reserves and high-grade ore [9]. - This cooperation aims to create a complementary advantage between Zijin Mining's mining development and Jinduicheng Molybdenum's smelting processing, promoting efficient development and extending the industrial chain [9].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) has signed a project cooperation and equity transfer agreement with Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd. to develop and process the Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine in Anhui Province, China, enhancing resource utilization and economic benefits [1][2] Group 1: Agreement Details - The cooperation agreement was signed on January 15, 2026, following a letter of intent signed on August 29, 2025 [1] - Jinchuan Group and Anhui Jinsan Molybdenum Co., Ltd. will jointly invest to establish a smelting company in the region, with a capital structure aligned with the development scale of the Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine [1][2] - Jinchuan Group will hold 51% and Anhui Jinsan Molybdenum will hold 49% of the smelting company, which will be primarily operated by Jinchuan Group [1] Group 2: Equity Transfer - Zijin Mining will transfer 24% of its stake in Anhui Jinsan Molybdenum to Jinchuan Group for a consideration of RMB 173,087,000 [2] - Post-transfer, Zijin Mining will hold 60%, Jinchuan Group 34%, and the local development company 6% of Anhui Jinsan Molybdenum [2] Group 3: Resource and Economic Impact - The Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine is a rare, large undeveloped porphyry-type molybdenum mine with significant resource reserves and high-grade ore [2] - The collaboration aims to create a complementary advantage between Zijin Mining's mining operations and Jinchuan Group's smelting and processing capabilities, promoting efficient development and extending the industrial chain [2]

關於簽署沙坪溝鉬礦項目合作及股權轉讓協議的公告 茲提述紫金礦業集團股份有限公司（以下簡稱「紫金礦業」或「本公司」）日期為 2022 年 10 月 21 日的關於收購安徽沙坪溝鉬礦的公告及 2025 年 8 月 29 日的關於安徽沙坪溝鉬礦項目 收購完成交割暨簽署《合作意向書》的公告（「該等公告」）。除另有定義外，本公告內所用 辭彚與該等公告所載者具有相同涵義。 2026 年 1 月 15 日，本公司與金堆城鉬業股份有限公司（以下簡稱「金鉬股份」，上海證券交 易所股票代碼：601958）簽署《項目合作及股權轉讓協議》（以下簡稱「《合作協議》」）。雙方 在 2025 年 8 月 29 日簽署的《合作意向書》框架下，正式就安徽省金寨縣沙坪溝鉬礦（以下 簡稱「沙坪溝鉬礦」）的一體化開發和深加工等業務達成一攬子合作。 一、合作方案 本次合作包括冶煉合作、股權交易兩部份，具體如下： （一）冶煉合作 依據《合作協議》，金鉬股份應與安徽金沙鉬業有限公司（持有沙坪溝鉬礦 100%權益，以下 簡稱「金沙鉬業」）共同出資，在金沙鉬業所在縣域設立從事鉬金屬冶煉和深加工等業務的 冶煉公司（以下簡稱「冶煉公司」），其註冊資本、投資規模、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic molybdenum market is experiencing downward pressure due to declining steel demand and prices, increased profit-taking by suppliers, weak international molybdenum market conditions, and a lack of confidence among industry players regarding future market trends [7]. Molybdenum Market Summary - The overall molybdenum market is under pressure, with prices for molybdenum concentrate dropping to approximately ¥3,990 per ton due to reduced downstream inquiry activity and fluctuating overseas molybdenum prices [2][7]. - Molybdenum iron prices have decreased by about ¥3,000 per ton, influenced by steel companies' price-cutting sentiments and reduced quotes from molybdenum mining companies, although some steel enterprises are still willing to bid for molybdenum iron [3][7]. Steel Market Summary - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, as of early January 2026, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities is 7.11 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons or 1.4% month-on-month, but an increase of 480,000 tons or 7.2% year-on-year [8]. - The inventory changes vary by region, with East China showing the largest reduction and Central China the largest decline. Among the five major steel products, wire rods saw the largest increase, while rebar experienced the largest decrease in inventory [8].

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - On December 15, 2025, the domestic molybdenum market maintained a steady but weak trend, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm from downstream users and decreased cost support for product prices, leading to some molybdenum mining companies adjusting their quotes downwards [6]. - The prices for molybdenum concentrate and molybdenum oxide both decreased by 20 yuan per ton, with current prices at approximately 3,700 yuan per ton for molybdenum concentrate and 3,800 yuan per ton for molybdenum oxide [6]. - Molybdenum ferroalloy, sodium molybdate, and molybdenum powder prices remained stable at around 240,000 yuan per ton, 173,000 yuan per ton, and 238,000 yuan per ton, respectively [6]. Group 2: Steel Market Overview - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month, with 310 out of 623 products showing production growth [6]. - Steel production reached 11,591 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [6]. - The production of ten non-ferrous metals was 699 million tons, marking a growth of 4.7%, while ethylene production increased by 7.3% to 309 million tons [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Molybdenum Industry Industry Overview - The molybdenum industry is currently benefiting from the upgrade of the manufacturing sector and the development of the military industry, leading to a bull market for molybdenum prices, which have risen from less than 350,000 yuan to 450,000 yuan this year [2][10] - Demand for molybdenum is primarily driven by high-end manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding, wind power, military, oil, petrochemicals, and natural gas pipelines, with PMI indicators for high-end manufacturing consistently around 60, indicating strong demand despite poor overall economic indicators [2][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global molybdenum supply is characterized by a dual structure, consisting of overseas copper-molybdenum associated mines and domestic primary molybdenum mines, with China holding over 30% of reserves and over 40% of production [3][10] - Domestic primary molybdenum production is declining slightly, with major companies like Jinduicheng (Jinmoly), Luoyang Luanchuan, and China Railway's Luming accounting for 40% to 50% of China's production [5][10] - Large domestic molybdenum projects are progressing slowly, with expected production not starting until around 2028 to 2030 [6][10] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Molybdenum prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a continuous increase in demand and limited supply contributing to a healthy price environment [8][10] - The trend of alloying in steel production is increasing molybdenum demand, as it allows for reduced nickel usage, benefiting sectors such as energy, military, and high-end manufacturing [7][10] - Molybdenum iron and steel demand has maintained over 10% growth in recent years, indicating robust market performance [8][10] Strategic Collaborations and Future Outlook - The collaboration between Zijin Mining and Jinduicheng Molybdenum Company is significant, as it enhances resource reserves and quality while reducing costs, alleviating concerns about future price declines [11][12] - Jinduicheng's future development is supported by three favorable factors: a clear increase in production, reduced concerns about future prices, and potential for valuation reappraisal [12][14] - The overall supply-demand balance for molybdenum is expected to remain tight in the coming years, with limited supply growth and stable demand from manufacturing and military sectors [10][15] Investor Confidence - Jinduicheng Molybdenum Company has a high dividend payout ratio, which has historically reached 63% and currently stands around 40%, enhancing investor confidence due to stable cash flow [14][15] - The company's recent actions indicate sufficient cash flow for strategic acquisitions, further boosting investor sentiment regarding long-term growth prospects [14][15]

Core Insights - Molybdenum prices have reached a new high, with ferromolybdenum prices rising to approximately 280,000 yuan per ton, marking a significant increase in demand and activity in the market [1][4] - The price of molybdenum concentrate has also surged, reaching 4,380 yuan per ton, driven by a combination of supply constraints and increased downstream demand [1][2] - The recent price increases are attributed to a tight supply situation and a recovery in demand, with expectations for continued growth in molybdenum demand through 2025 [2][5] Group 1: Price Trends - Molybdenum prices have been on an upward trend since April, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by over 1,000 yuan per ton, representing a rise of more than 35% [2] - The current price levels are the highest seen in the year, with significant activity in the market as major steel mills begin to bid for molybdenum [1][4] - The price increase is expected to benefit upstream molybdenum mining companies, while downstream companies may face increased operational pressures due to rising costs [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of molybdenum concentrate is at a near three-year low, with global molybdenum mine growth at only 1.2%, contributing to the price surge [2][5] - Domestic steel mills have reported a 10.47% increase in molybdenum bidding volume compared to the previous year, indicating strong demand [3] - Despite a recent joint statement from major steel companies to halt ferromolybdenum purchases, the overall market demand remains robust, with expectations for increased bidding activity in August [4][5] Group 3: Industry Responses - Major steel companies have called for a halt to speculative trading in the molybdenum market to stabilize prices and ensure they reflect true supply and demand [3] - The industry is focusing on maintaining a healthy supply chain for molybdenum, which is essential for high-end stainless steel production [3] - Analysts predict that the combination of government policies and increased infrastructure investment will support molybdenum demand in the coming months [4]