周大生经典非遗时尚系列

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周大生(002867):经营韧性彰显,品牌升级与渠道优化焕新能
Western Securities· 2025-09-26 10:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.44 [5]. Core Insights - Despite high gold prices suppressing short-term demand for gold consumption, the industry shows structural highlights, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry growing by 11.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, benefiting from "self-consumption" and festive catalysts [2][5]. - The company demonstrated resilience in the face of short-term pressures, with a significant drop in revenue of 43.92% year-on-year to 4.597 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a 50.94% decline in income from gold jewelry. However, the company managed to achieve a 11.11% growth in revenue from fashion silver jewelry through product structure optimization [2][3]. - The company is actively transforming its channel structure from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency," adding 54 new stores in key business districts and achieving a 6.04% increase in single-store gross profit [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.597 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 43.92% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.313 billion yuan in 2023, expected to decrease to 1.002 billion yuan in 2024 before recovering to 1.106 billion yuan in 2025 [4][9]. - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.02, 1.18, and 1.29 yuan respectively, with a P/E ratio of 13.1 for 2025 [4][9]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand matrix strategy, focusing on the main brand "Zhou Dasheng" while launching high-end and culturally rich product lines to capture diverse market segments [2][3]. - The "National Treasure Home" brand upgrade is progressing steadily, with plans to create flagship stores generating over 100 million yuan in revenue [3]. Growth Outlook - Short-term net profit has already seen a rapid growth of 31% in the second quarter, supported by strong sales during key shopping events [3]. - The company is expected to open new growth avenues through its "Zhuanzhuge" series, which has a low investment threshold, and is beginning to explore overseas markets [3].