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潮宏基(002345):直营调整加速 业绩高增延续
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 10:37
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth slower than profit due to adjustments in direct sales channels and accelerated franchise expansion [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million yuan, up 44.3% year-on-year [1]. - For the first half of 2025, total revenue reached 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, also up 44.3% year-on-year [1]. Channel Performance - Franchise revenue in H1 2025 was 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%, with a net increase of 68 stores, bringing the total to 1,340 [2]. - Direct sales revenue was 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with a net decrease of 37 stores, resulting in a total of 202 stores [2]. - E-commerce revenue was 570 million yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, attributed to tightened discounts and reduced online exclusive products [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 24.9%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, despite a higher proportion of lower-margin franchise revenue [3]. - The company experienced a decrease in expense ratios, with sales expense ratio at 9.9% (down 1.5 percentage points), management expense ratio at 1.9% (down 0.2 percentage points), and financial expense ratio at 0.4% (down 0.1 percentage points) [3]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased to 7.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [3]. Product Development and Brand Strategy - The company continues to focus on its brand series and IP series, integrating Eastern aesthetics into product design, and has launched several new IP products in H1 2025 [4]. - The R&D expense ratio increased to 1.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investment in product innovation [4]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong growth due to its differentiated product strength and strong channel expansion potential [5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 8 billion, 9.4 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 18%, and 15% [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 550 million, 650 million, and 760 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 185%, 18%, and 17% [5].