机构：麦高证券 研究员：钟奕昕 事件：11 月17 日，携程集团发布2025 年三季度报告，得益于越来越强劲的旅游需求，携程主营业务营 收稳健增长，2025Q3 公司营收183 亿元（同比+16%），归母净利润199 亿元，经调整EBITDA 为63 亿 元。 携程2025Q3 业绩表现亮眼。旅游旺季期间需求强劲，国内和国际旅游市场均表现出健康势头，交通、 住宿板块业务仍是公司主营业务的核心驱动。2025Q3，住宿预订营收为80 亿元，同比增长18%，得益 于出境游和国际酒店预定的强劲势头，国内需求持续强劲；交通票务营收63 亿元，同比增长12%，国 际航空预定强劲增长；旅游度假营收为16 亿元，同比增长3%，主要受国际产品线扩张驱动；商旅管理 营收7.56 亿元，同比增长15%，得益于更多公司采用该服务。 银发和年轻旅客需求强劲，呈现代际多样化趋势。根据携程2025Q3 业绩发布会，三季度老友会用户数 量及GMV 增长超70%，富裕且活跃的银发旅客注重探索并且消费优质旅行。携程老友会也在定制更多 产品和服务，上海推出第一家"老友会旗舰店"，与银发旅客面对面交流，并围绕其兴趣设计旅行主题。 此外，年轻旅客偏好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 648.83 HKD, based on expected strong performance in the upcoming months [5]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group's Q3 2025 performance shows robust growth driven by strong travel demand, with total revenue reaching 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.9 billion RMB, and adjusted EBITDA was 6.3 billion RMB [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, supported by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, a 12% increase, driven by robust international flight bookings. Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion RMB, growing 3%, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines. Business travel management revenue was 756 million RMB, up 15% as more companies adopted these services [2]. International Business Performance - Ctrip's international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor. All regions experienced growth exceeding 50%, with mobile bookings accounting for over 70% of total bookings. Inbound travel bookings more than doubled, with significant growth from the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US. Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20%, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2]. Demographic Trends - There is a strong demand from both senior and young travelers, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity. The number of users in Ctrip's "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences. Ctrip is customizing more products and services for this demographic. Young travelers are increasingly drawn to experience-driven travel, with revenues from this segment seeing triple-digit growth [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The report anticipates continued enthusiasm for leisure travel, projecting revenues of 61.56 billion RMB, 70.78 billion RMB, and 80.36 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5%. Net profits are expected to be 31.92 billion RMB, 20.58 billion RMB, and 23.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively. The report highlights Ctrip's significant domestic business advantages and the potential for international business to contribute additional growth [2][4].