交通运输部预测，2025年国庆中秋假期期间（9月29日至10月10日），全国铁路预计发送旅客约2.19亿人次，较去年同期增长7.5%；民航预计执行客运航班 总量13.9万班次，日均同比增长5.7%。多个旅游平台也显示，今年假期出游的人数同比大幅增长，旅游和消费或将进入全面的高峰期。 反映在资本市场上，9月以来，旅游股的表现呈分化趋势。再从各大企业上半年的财报表现看，无论是市值还是归母净利润，携程集团都断崖式领先。 3eK！ | 图 Ma "拼好假"的钱都进了谁的口袋? 9月以来二级市场旅游股表现 ● 航空公司 ● OTA ● 免税零售 ● 酒店 ● 旅行社及景区 9月以来股价变化(%) 10% 8% 吉祥航空 6% 华夏航空 ● 华佳集团 4% 除十 中国国航 同程旅行 2% ●中国中免 中国东航 ● 携程集团 0% 南方航空 -2% -4% ● 中航信(航旅纵横) -6% -8% -10% ● 众信旅游 -12% -14% -16% -18% -20% -22% ● 西藏旅游 -24% 2,000 1,500 3,000 3,500 2,500 500 1,000 4,000 0 市值(亿元人民币) 注释: ...

OTA在各自领域形成分野 携程集团近年来各项收入数据(亿元) ● 住宿预订 ● 交通票务 ● 旅游度假 ● 商旅管理 ● 其他 600 400 200 0 2022年 2025上半年 2020年。 。 ·2021年 · · · · 2023年。。 2024年 途牛近年来各项收入数据（亿元） 10° ● 打包旅游 ● 其他 5 0 2021年 2025上半年 2020年 2022年 2024年 2023年 同程旅行近年来各项收入数据(亿元) 目 200 - ● 住宿预订 ● 交通票务 ● 其他 150 100 50 0 。2021年 2022年 。2023年 2024年 2025上半年 2020年。 数据来源：公司财报 携程股价增长有其原因 中国OTA行业市场规模逐年递增 OTA行业市场规模(亿元) 同比变化(%) 15,000 50% 12,000 40% 9,000 30% 6,000 20% 3,000 10% 0 0% 2021年 2022年 2024年 2020年 2023年 从近年10月旅游APP的月活人数来看,携程始终遥遥领先 从左至右分别为2022年10月,2023年10月,2024年10月的月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded revenue expectations in Q2 2025, benefiting from a favorable competitive landscape and optimized marketing efficiency, leading to a continuous increase in profit margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, representing a 16.23% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [1]. - Adjusted net profit (excluding non-recurring items) was 5.011 billion RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached 4.880 billion RMB, marking a 10% increase, while adjusted operating profit was 4.668 billion RMB, up 10.4% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from accommodation bookings grew by 21.2%, while transportation ticketing increased by 10.8%, group tours by 5.3%, business travel by 9.3%, and other revenues surged by 31% [2]. - Domestic hotel performance outpaced transportation, with low double-digit growth, while outbound business remained stable, indicating an increase in market share [2]. Profitability and Market Position - The company's profitability is steadily improving, primarily driven by sales expenses management, with a stable sales expense ratio of 22.4% compared to 22.2% in the previous year [2]. - The overseas business continues to show strong growth, with revenue growth exceeding 50%, and the company's share in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore is increasing [2]. - The company has maintained a consistent increase in profit margins over several quarters, reflecting a stable competitive landscape and high certainty in profitability [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit have shown robust growth, driven primarily by hotel bookings and international business [11]. - The report highlights that the company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, benefiting from a stable competitive landscape and improved marketing efficiency [2][11]. - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 183.25 billion, 206.60 billion, and 227.21 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to grow from 44,562 in 2023 to 78,490 in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.28% [4]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 13,071 in 2023 to 22,721 in 2027, with a significant growth of 910.12% in 2023 [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise from 13,975 in 2023 to 23,342 in 2027, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4]. Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.23%, and a net profit of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [11]. - The breakdown of revenue sources shows hotel bookings growing by 21.2%, transportation tickets by 10.8%, and group tours by 5.3% [11]. - The company has maintained a stable profit margin, with adjusted EBITDA margin projected at 29.6% for 2025 [4][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned to outperform its competitors, with a target market capitalization of 476.4 billion RMB, translating to a target price of 731 HKD per share [11]. - The report notes that the company's market share is increasing, particularly in the hotel sector, despite a relatively stable performance in outbound travel [11].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group (09961) maintains a strong growth trajectory with robust revenue and profit increases, driven primarily by hotel bookings and international business, leading to an "overweight" rating from Guotai Junan [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Ctrip achieved revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, a 16.23% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 18.325 billion RMB, 20.660 billion RMB, and 22.721 billion RMB respectively [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 4.880 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% increase, while adjusted operating profit rose by 10.4% to 4.668 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources showed significant growth: accommodation bookings increased by 21.2%, transportation ticketing by 10.8%, group tours by 5.3%, business travel by 9.3%, and other revenues surged by 31% [1] - Domestic hotel performance outpaced transportation, indicating a low double-digit growth potential, while outbound business remained stable [1] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Ctrip's market share is reportedly increasing, with high growth rates in revenue aligning with previously tracked high-frequency data trends [1] - The company has maintained a stable sales expense ratio despite increased marketing investments, indicating effective cost management [2] - International business continues to show over 50% revenue growth, with significant contributions from markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where Ctrip holds the leading market share [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with robust revenue and profit growth driven by hotel bookings and international business, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 183.25 billion, 206.60 billion, and 227.21 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Ctrip achieved revenue of RMB 14.864 billion, a 16.23% increase, and a net profit of RMB 4.864 billion, up 26.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was RMB 5.011 billion, reflecting a 0.5% increase, while adjusted EBITDA and operating profit grew by 10% and 10.4% respectively [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources showed significant growth: accommodation bookings increased by 21.2%, transportation ticketing by 10.8%, group tours by 5.3%, business travel by 9.3%, and other revenues by 31% [1] - Domestic hotel performance outpaced transportation, with a low double-digit growth rate, while outbound business remained stable [1] Market Position and Competition - Ctrip's market share is increasing, with high revenue growth aligning with previously tracked high-frequency data trends, and no significant impact from Agoda's competition observed [1] - The competitive landscape remains stable, supporting Ctrip's profit stability, with overseas business showing over 50% revenue growth and approaching a 15% share of total revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Management - Profitability is steadily improving, with unexpected profit mainly driven by sales expenses, which remained stable year-on-year despite increased marketing investments [2] - Ctrip has maintained multiple quarters of rising profit margins, indicating a favorable competitive environment and successful overseas expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth and improved profit margins in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, driven by strong execution and increased overseas investments [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and outbound travel businesses continue to gain market share, with Q2 accommodation booking revenue at 62.3 billion yuan, up 21.2%, and transportation ticketing revenue at 54.0 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - Estimated Q2 domestic revenue growth exceeded 10%, with hotel night growth maintaining over 15%, while outbound revenue also grew over 10%, with hotel and flight bookings recovering significantly [2]. - International platform revenue is expected to grow over 30%, with Trip.com seeing over 60% growth in hotel and flight bookings [2]. Profitability Breakdown - The international platform is still in an investment phase, impacting profit margins, while domestic operations are optimizing profitability [3]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D and management expenses rising by 18.3% [3]. - The company has repurchased 4 billion USD worth of shares and announced a new 50 billion USD buyback plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations, driven by lower sales and marketing expenses, leading to an increase in target price and maintained Buy rating [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached Rmb14.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase, with a non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.7 billion and a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 31% [1]. - By business segment, accommodation reservation revenue increased by 21% YoY, transportation ticketing revenue rose by 11%, packaged-tour revenue grew by 5%, corporate travel revenue increased by 9%, and other business revenue surged by 31% [2]. - Overall reservations on the Trip.com brand increased by over 60% YoY, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling (over 100% YoY), and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings up by 20% compared to 2019 levels [2]. Share Repurchase Program - The company has fully utilized the US$400 million share repurchase authorization limit for 2025 and has approved a new multi-year repurchase program not exceeding US$5 billion to enhance shareholder returns [3]. Future Outlook - The non-GAAP EPS forecast for 2025 has been raised from Rmb27.7 to Rmb27.8, with forecasts for 2026 and 2027 maintained at Rmb29.7 and Rmb30 respectively [1]. - The target price has been increased from HK$590 to HK$618, indicating a 21% upside potential [1]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in China's online travel industry and has potential for market share growth internationally [3].

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported Q2 2025 revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase, with overall revenue meeting guidance and performance slightly exceeding expectations [1][3] - The company experienced steady release of domestic travel demand since Q2 2025, with inbound and international business continuing to show high growth trends, supported by optimized domestic marketing expenses and effective personnel cost control [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments includes accommodation bookings at 6.23 billion yuan (+21.2%), transportation tickets at 5.40 billion yuan (+10.8%), travel vacation at 1.08 billion yuan (+5.3%), business travel management at 690 million yuan (+9.3%), and other businesses at 1.47 billion yuan (+31.0%) [1] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the period was 81.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin international business [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) was 31.5%, down 1.7 percentage points, with the NON-GAAP net profit margin at 33.8%, down 5.3 percentage points [2] Growth Drivers - The outbound, overseas, and inbound businesses showed rapid growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels from 2019, and international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year, while inbound tourism bookings more than doubled [2] - A new share repurchase plan was approved, with an expected total repurchase scale of up to 5 billion USD, alongside dividends, aiming to provide continuous investment returns to shareholders [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating, anticipating sustained growth in performance driven by the maturation of international market operations and improved profitability of trip.com [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to increase from 53.29 billion to 79.93 billion over the next four years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.47% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17.07 billion to 23.34 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, expected to remain around 81% to 82.5%, which suggests effective cost management and pricing power [8]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities is anticipated to grow steadily, reaching 25.39 billion by 2027, which supports its financial health and ability to reinvest in growth [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for various segments indicate robust growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow from 5.59 billion in Q3 2023 to 8.30 billion by Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 22% [6]. - The total operating income is projected to increase from 13.75 billion in 2024 to 18.57 billion by 2027, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [6]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to rise from 20.08 billion to 28.32 billion over the same period, reflecting operational efficiency [8]. Key Financial Ratios - The report outlines key financial ratios, including a projected return on equity (ROE) of 11.48% by 2027, indicating effective use of equity capital [8]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve, with a net debt ratio projected to decrease significantly, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 26.10 to 32.71, reflecting the company's profitability growth [8].