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医药行业2025年中期投资策略:BD加速创新药重估,后续持续看好创新药及产业链、AI医疗、脑机接口等结构性机会
Southwest Securities· 2025-07-20 12:32
Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is experiencing a turning point and structural market trends in the first half of 2025, with a focus on innovative drugs and their supply chain, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interfaces as structural opportunities [3][5] - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index has increased by 10.10% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.90 percentage points, ranking 4th in industry performance [3][22] - Among 480 listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, 348 have seen their stock prices rise, accounting for 72.5%, with 17 stocks doubling in value [3][40] Investment Logic - The innovative drug sector is accelerating its value reconstruction through business development (BD) overseas, research and commercialization progress, and policy support. In the first half of 2025, over 50 BD transactions for innovative drugs occurred, totaling over $48 billion [5] - Significant clinical data releases and commercialization progress for major drug candidates are expected to drive stock price increases [5] - Policy initiatives, such as the March 2025 government work report emphasizing the support for innovative drugs and medical devices, are providing strong backing for the industry's long-term development [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation has seen a short-term recovery but remains at a long-term low, with a PE ratio of 29 times as of mid-2025, slightly above the 50th percentile of the past four years [3][43] - Public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector have increased, with the proportion of public funds in A+H shares rising to 9.05% in Q1 2025, a 0.37 percentage point increase [3][58] Sub-industry Performance - The best-performing sub-industries in the pharmaceutical sector include chemical preparations and other biological products, with increases of 25.8% and 24.0%, respectively [3][22] - The pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a structural market trend, with innovative drugs leading the charge, while traditional sectors like vaccines and traditional Chinese medicine have seen slight declines [3][29] Recommended Stocks - A robust portfolio is suggested, including companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and United Imaging Healthcare, among others [10]