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北方国际(000065):Q2业绩继续承压,反内卷政策下重视公司焦煤业务弹性
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-22 07:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company faced operational pressure in H1 2025 due to declining coking coal prices, but the focus on the coking coal business's elasticity is emphasized under the anti-involution policy [1] - The company achieved revenue of 6.735 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 35.34%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 309 million, down 42.71% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the operational performance of ongoing projects, particularly the Bangladesh coal-fired power plant, which is anticipated to start contributing operational revenue this year [1] - The overall coking coal prices have shown signs of recovery since Q3, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity in the company's coking coal business [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on its integrated investment and operation business development prospects, forecasting net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.12 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.4 billion for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the revenue from various business segments was as follows: Engineering Construction and Services 3.1 billion, Resource Equipment Supply Chain 2.66 billion, Power Operations 330 million, and Industrial Manufacturing 620 million, with respective year-on-year changes of -24.9%, -50.9%, +55.2%, and -0.9% [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 13.09%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 13.15%, up 2.63 percentage points [2] - The company signed new contracts worth 402 million USD in H1 2025, a decrease of 44.76% year-on-year, while efforts to explore emerging markets have yielded breakthroughs in Egypt and the UAE [2] - The company's cash flow from operations (CFO) improved to 147 million in H1 2025, an increase of 531 million year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the maturity of large acceptance bills compared to the previous year [3] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected financial data for the company from 2023 to 2027 includes revenue growth rates of 59.96% in 2023, -11.21% in 2024, and positive growth in subsequent years [4] - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 918.06 million in 2023, increasing to 1.399 billion by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 44.35%, 14.32%, and 12.97% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14.30 in 2023 to 9.38 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4]