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不让中国先登月,美国有这个本事吗?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-09-14 01:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the renewed focus on the lunar exploration competition between the United States and China, highlighting the differences in their approaches and the implications for future space exploration [1][16]. Comparison of Lunar Exploration Plans - The U.S. relies on a complex system involving the SLS heavy-lift rocket and the Orion spacecraft, requiring multiple in-orbit refueling operations, which adds complexity and potential delays [4][8]. - In contrast, China's plan involves a simpler "dual rocket integration" approach using two Long March 10 rockets to send a crewed spacecraft and lunar lander into orbit, allowing for a more straightforward mission structure [7][12]. - The Apollo program was characterized by a single Saturn V rocket delivering all components in one go, which, while effective, was costly and limited in sustainability [6][10]. Progress and Risk Analysis - The U.S. aims to conduct the Artemis II mission in 2026 and Artemis III by 2027, but faces significant delays due to technical challenges and high costs, with each SLS launch exceeding $4 billion [10][14]. - China's timeline for a crewed lunar landing is set for before 2030, with steady progress on the Long March 10 and associated technologies, indicating a more manageable risk profile [11][12]. Cost and Sustainability - The Apollo program's limited missions highlight the financial unsustainability of high-cost lunar missions, while the Artemis program's complexity raises concerns about its long-term viability [14][16]. - China's approach, with lower costs and a clearer path to execution, suggests a potential for more frequent lunar missions and sustainable exploration efforts [12][16]. Future Implications - The competition is shifting from merely reaching the moon to establishing a sustainable presence, with China already planning for lunar base construction while the U.S. debates the necessity of a lunar gateway [16]. - The ability to transition from concept to reality in lunar base development will determine strategic advantages in future deep space exploration [16].