⚫ 根据之前的年报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年 每股收益分别为 2.86、3.30 和 3.75 元（原 25-26 年为 4.37 和 4.88 元），参考可比 公司，给予 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 62.92 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱，金价波动影响终端消费等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 71,436 | 56,793 | 49,371 | 52,115 | 57,047 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.4% | -20.5% | -13.1% | 5.6% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,968 | 3,423 | 2,618 | 3,018 | 3,424 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.5% | -13.7% | -23.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant changes and is adapting to the evolving market conditions in the gold and jewelry sector, despite facing short-term operational pressures due to high gold prices [7] - The company has made strategic moves to enhance its online presence and brand collaboration, which are expected to drive future growth [7] - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 projected at 2.86, 3.30, and 3.75 yuan respectively, leading to a target price of 62.92 yuan based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3][8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 71,436 million yuan, with a projected decline to 49,371 million yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 57,047 million yuan in 2027 [3][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2,214 million yuan in 2023 to 1,496 million yuan in 2025, before rising to 1,959 million yuan in 2027 [3][10] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 8.3% in 2023 to 9.1% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 3.0% to 3.4% during the same period [3][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 5,838 marketing outlets as of the end of 2024, indicating a slight reduction in its physical presence [7] - The establishment of a joint venture in Northeast China aims to standardize and accelerate business development in that region [7] - The company is focusing on integrating online and offline sales channels, enhancing its e-commerce capabilities, and addressing counterfeit issues [7]