城投久期策略
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量化信用策略:城投久期策略超额收益逢拐点
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-16 13:07
Group 1 - The simulated portfolio returns have generally rebounded this week, with most credit style portfolios outperforming their corresponding interest rate styles. The weekly returns for secondary capital bonds and long-term strategies were both 0.05%, while the leading credit style strategies, perpetual bond duration and perpetual bond down strategies, achieved returns of 0.13% and 0.12% respectively [2][10][16] - The average weekly return for the credit style certificate of deposit (CD) heavy portfolio increased by 4 basis points to 0.04%, remaining at a relatively low level since October. The city investment heavy portfolio's average weekly return slightly rose to 0.03%, which is still lower than the CD strategy [2][17] - The main source of returns this week was the increase in coupon rates across various strategy portfolios, with investment returns primarily driven by coupon income. The coupon contribution was distributed between 30% to 100%, with the secondary bond bullet strategy contributing 60% of its returns from capital gains [3][26] Group 2 - Over the past four weeks, the duration city investment strategy has outperformed the financial bond heavy strategy. The cumulative excess returns for the city investment strategies were 17.9 basis points for the bullet strategy, 16.8 basis points for the duration strategy, and 3.6 basis points for the broker bond down strategy [4][30] - In terms of strategy duration, the excess returns for the medium to long-term city investment duration strategy have turned negative. The short-term CD strategy has shown negative excess returns, while the city investment down strategy's excess return increased to 2.7 basis points [4][32] - The cumulative comprehensive returns for the main credit style strategies this year have been led by city investment short-term down, city investment duration, and city investment bullet strategies, achieving returns of 1.56%, 1.34%, and 1.3% respectively [10][11]