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颐海国际(01579):渠道节奏优化,高分红增强估值支撑
Orient Securities· 2025-07-04 07:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a recovery in revenue driven by third-party channels, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 842 million, 948 million, and 1,028 million RMB respectively [2][9]. - The company is enhancing its valuation support through high dividend payouts, with a proposed dividend of 0.6775 RMB per share for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of 94.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, with established production centers in Thailand and Malaysia, aiming to replicate domestic channel efficiencies [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 6,148 million, 6,540 million, 7,101 million, 7,715 million, and 8,297 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.0%, 6.4%, 8.6%, 8.7%, and 7.5% respectively [4]. - The company's operating profit is forecasted to be 1,195 million, 1,108 million, 1,201 million, 1,312 million, and 1,409 million RMB for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 6.9%, -7.2%, 8.4%, 9.2%, and 7.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable decrease in 2024A, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 15.1 HKD for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times [2][9]. - The company's current market capitalization is approximately 14,410 million HKD [5]. Performance Analysis - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of 1.92% over the past week and 3.58% over the past month, indicating a positive trend compared to the Hang Seng Index [6].