Summary of the Conference Call for Yihai International Company Overview - **Company**: Yihai International - **Industry**: Food and Seasoning Industry Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Growth Expectations - The company anticipates a slowdown in third-party revenue growth for the year, with overall revenue expected to remain flat or slightly increase due to the performance of related parties like Haidilao [2][22] - Profit growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, benefiting from a return to normal tax rates [2][22] Product Performance - Butter remains the largest single product, with a 20% sales increase in the first half of the year due to low-priced product launches, although this affected average price and gross margin [2][7] - The company plans to adjust its strategy in the second half, promoting low-priced butter only in price-sensitive areas, expecting gross margin to remain flat or slightly increase for the year [2][7] - The overseas third-party business grew nearly 50% in the first half, reaching 190 million yuan, but is expected to slow to a growth rate of 20%-30% for the year [2][24] Competitive Landscape - The convenience food business faces intense competition, with only slight growth in third-party channels in the first half and a decline expected in the second half [2][11][12] - The company aims to maintain stable development in this segment, making it difficult to expand further [2][13] B2B and B2C Market Insights - In the B2B market, large clients saw a doubling in growth in the first half, but growth may slow in the second half due to the impact of the pre-made dish incident [2][5][21] - A dedicated team for small B clients has been established, but contributions are expected to be low this year, with significant growth anticipated next year [2][21] New Product Launches - New regional flavor products were launched in 2025, receiving good local acceptance but limited national impact compared to established flavors [2][6] Cost and Margin Management - The company has locked in raw material prices, minimizing cost impacts, and expects gross margins to remain flat or slightly increase due to the "Two Direct" system optimizing channel margins [2][14] - The "Two Direct" system aims to improve profit margins by reducing intermediary costs and is expected to cover 60% of the market by next year [2][16][17] Online Business and Marketing Strategy - The company has shifted its online strategy to focus on display and interaction rather than as a primary sales channel, leading to reduced advertising expenses [2][19] International Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia, and plans to explore markets in the Middle East, Central America, and Africa [2][26] - Direct engagement with large KA channels in Southeast Asia has been established, with expectations of maintaining stable growth rates of 20-30% over the next 2-3 years [2][27] Challenges and Risks - The company faces competition from domestic peers in the overseas market and local brands in Southeast Asia, which may impact growth [2][28] - The utilization rate of the Thai factory is currently low, with plans to improve it by the end of the year [2][29] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth to be driven by overseas and B2B segments, with a forecast of double-digit growth in third-party business next year [2][25] Additional Important Information - The gross margin for related party business remains around 14%, with stable pricing mechanisms in place [2][23] - The company is cautious about potential impacts from shipping costs and tariffs as it expands its international operations [2][31][32]

Core Insights - The overlapping of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 is expected to boost offline retail consumption, prompting increased festive spending [1] - The analysis will cover offline retail consumption data for September 2025 and the first ten days of October 2025, focusing on key consumption categories [1][2] Time Period and Category Overview - The observation period for the 2025 Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday spans from September 1, 2025, to October 10, 2025, covering 40 days [3] - The 2024 holiday period is similarly defined, allowing for a comparative analysis of consumption trends [4] Category Selection for Analysis - Three main consumption directions are identified for the analysis: festive ready-to-eat snacks and traditional foods, festive dairy products and beverages, and convenient ready-to-eat and frozen foods [5] - The selected categories aim to capture different consumer needs and scenarios during the festive period [5] Festive Snacks and Traditional Foods - Sales data indicates that most categories are experiencing a decline in both sales revenue and volume, except for mooncakes and traditional pastries, which show growth [6][8] - The decline in average prices for mooncakes and traditional pastries suggests a shift towards more affordable, larger quantity products [10] Dairy Products and Beverages - All selected categories in this segment are experiencing negative growth in both sales revenue and volume [15] - Notably, instant coffee shows a significant decline in sales revenue, while ready-to-drink juices are performing relatively better due to a shift towards higher-quality products [17] Convenient Ready-to-Eat and Frozen Foods - Sales revenue and volume for most categories in this segment are also declining, with frozen foods showing better performance compared to instant foods [23] - The average prices for instant foods and sausages have increased, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences [22] Regional Performance Insights - Across various regions, snack categories are under pressure, with declines in sales revenue and volume attributed to market fragmentation and health trends [26] - Frozen foods are performing well in most regions, particularly in the Northwest and North China, where sales have increased significantly [30][33] - In contrast, the Southwest region shows severe declines in all categories, particularly in beer and ready-to-drink juices, likely influenced by weather conditions [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yihai International (01579.HK) with a target price of HKD 18.68 [2][8]. Core Views - Yihai International's resilience in third-party business is highlighted, with growth driven by B-end and overseas markets. The company reported a revenue of CNY 2.927 billion (flat year-on-year) and a net profit of CNY 310 million (up 0.4% year-on-year) for the first half of 2025 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company achieved total revenue of CNY 2.927 billion, with a net profit margin of 10.6% (down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year). Operating profit was CNY 430 million (up 4.0% year-on-year) [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The earnings per share (EPS) for the period was CNY 0.319, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2][8]. - **Dividend**: The interim dividend declared was CNY 0.3107 per share, representing a payout ratio of approximately 89% [2][8]. Revenue Structure and Growth Drivers - **Revenue Composition**: The revenue structure has shifted, with third-party revenue reaching CNY 2.064 billion (70.5% of total revenue, up 6.5% year-on-year). B-end restaurant client revenue surged by 131.7% to CNY 155 million, driven by customized products and new client acquisition [8]. - **Sales Channels**: Distributor channel revenue was CNY 1.727 billion (up 2.1% year-on-year), benefiting from refined management and new product penetration. Revenue from related parties was CNY 864 million (29.5% of total revenue, down 12.7% year-on-year) due to reduced demand from partners like Haidilao [8]. Cost Management and Margins - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 29.5% (down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year), primarily due to declining margins from related parties and an increase in low-margin B-end products [8]. - **Expense Control**: The company managed expenses effectively, with a logistics cost increase leading to a distributor expense ratio of 12.6% (up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year). Advertising and marketing expenses decreased by 35.4% year-on-year, partially offsetting cost pressures [8]. Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: The report indicates that B-end customized services and overseas market expansion are expected to drive future growth. The company has a robust cash reserve of CNY 1.52 billion and a low debt ratio of 13.5%, indicating a solid financial structure [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is CNY 0.74, CNY 0.81, and CNY 0.86, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.5, 15.1, and 14.1 [8].

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.478 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 138 million yuan, a decrease of 52.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.754 billion yuan, up 22.77% year-on-year, but recorded a net loss of 101 million yuan compared to a loss of 19 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The main brand, Three Squirrels, generated 4.978 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, while the sub-brand, Little Deer Blue, saw revenue of 437 million yuan, up 13.51% [2] - Online sales through third-party e-commerce platforms reached 4.295 billion yuan, a 5.01% increase year-on-year, with Douyin contributing 1.478 billion yuan, a growth of 20.75% [2] Distribution and Sales Channels - The company's distribution business saw significant growth, with revenue of 938 million yuan in H1 2025, up 40.21% year-on-year, while offline store revenue was 187 million yuan, down 18.70% [3] - The number of distributors increased to 2,140, a net growth of 269 since the beginning of the year, while the company opened 144 new national snack stores, bringing the total to 353 [3] Cost and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.08%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising nut costs [3] - In Q2 2025, the net profit margin was -5.73%, with a gross profit margin of 21.57%, reflecting a decline in profitability [4] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 285 million yuan, 393 million yuan, and 518 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of -30.20%, 38.06%, and 31.72% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, down 52.2% year-on-year [1] - The "D+N" strategy continues to drive distribution growth, with online channel revenue increasing by 5.0% to 4.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, and offline distribution revenue growing by 40.2% to 940 million yuan [2][4] - The company is in a critical phase of channel expansion, with increased costs impacting profitability, as the gross margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 25.1% in H1 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue reaching 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8 [1][2] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was -100 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -110 million yuan [1] Distribution and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, expanding its distribution channels and product categories, which includes a successful offline distribution business [2][4] - The company has 450 offline stores, generating 190 million yuan in revenue, with a significant portion coming from its community snack stores [2] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.1%, with a net profit margin of 2.5%, reflecting pressure from increased distribution costs [3] - The company expects revenue growth of 15.2%, 18.5%, and 15.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit projections of 284 million yuan, 391 million yuan, and 522 million yuan for the same years [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Yihai International reported a slight decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 2.927 billion yuan, down 0.25% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.39% to 309 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from related parties decreased by 12.7% to 860 million yuan, while revenue from third parties increased by 6.5% to 2.06 billion yuan [1] - Specific revenue figures for related party products include hot pot condiments at 760 million yuan (down 14.6%), Chinese mixed condiments at 40 million yuan (up 69.7%), and instant food at 80 million yuan (down 17.0%) [1] - Third-party revenue for hot pot condiments, Chinese mixed condiments, and instant food was 930 million yuan (up 7.5%), 450 million yuan (up 4.8%), and 650 million yuan (up 3.5%) respectively [1] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 29.5%, primarily due to the decline in gross margin from related party businesses [2] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 0.6 percentage points to 12.6% and 11.6% respectively, attributed to increased personnel and transportation costs [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders remained stable at 10.6%, supported by government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [2] Dividend Policy and International Expansion - The company continues to implement a mid-term dividend policy, proposing a dividend of 0.3107 HKD per share, totaling 293 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 95% [2] - Currently, overseas revenue accounts for less than 10%, with plans to develop products tailored to local markets and expand direct overseas customer bases [2] Investment Forecast - Due to a weak consumption environment, the company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.87 billion, 7.41 billion, and 7.89 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.0%, 7.9%, and 6.5% respectively [3] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 770 million, 860 million, and 930 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 4.6%, 11.1%, and 8.8% respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.75, 0.83, and 0.90 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.5, 16.6, and 15.3 times [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 H1 results, showing stable revenue and profit growth, with a focus on high dividend distribution and growth in B-end and overseas markets [1][4]. Financial Performance - 2025 H1 revenue reached 2.927 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million yuan, up 0.39% year-on-year [1]. - The company proposed an interim dividend of 0.3107 HKD per share, totaling 275 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 88.9% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from third-party sales grew steadily, while revenue from related parties declined [1]. - By product, revenue for hot pot condiments, Chinese compound condiments, instant food, and other products were 1.683 billion, 492 million, 709 million, and 44 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.7%, +8.2%, +1.2%, and +78.7% [1][2]. Third-Party and Related Party Revenue - For hot pot condiments, third-party revenue increased by 7.5%, while related party revenue decreased by 14.6% [1]. - In the Chinese compound condiment category, third-party revenue rose by 4.8%, and related party revenue surged by 69.7% [2]. - Instant food saw third-party revenue grow by 3.5%, while related party revenue fell by 17.0% [2]. Channel Performance - In 2025 H1, third-party and related party revenues were 2.064 billion and 864 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +6.5% and -12.7% [3]. - The decline in related party revenue was attributed to pressure on store operations, with same-store sales down 9.7% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2025 H1 was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to revenue structure adjustments [3]. - Other income increased by 216% year-on-year to 91 million yuan, supported by foreign exchange gains and government subsidies [4]. Growth Drivers - The B-end and overseas markets are becoming significant growth drivers for the company [4]. - The B-end revenue grew by 131.7% year-on-year to 155 million yuan, supported by the establishment of a dedicated sales team [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, focusing on Southeast Asia and exploring opportunities in Africa, India, South America, and the Middle East [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is in line with expectations, with revenue of 2.927 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.02%, and a net profit of 309 million CNY, up 0.39% year-on-year [4] - The company continues to offer high dividends, proposing an interim dividend of 0.3107 HKD per share, totaling 275 million CNY, with a payout ratio of 88.9% [4] - The third-party B-end revenue shows strong growth, driven by the demand for beef hot pot base and dipping sauces, with a year-on-year increase of 131.7% to 155 million CNY [8] Revenue Performance - The company achieved revenue of 2.927 billion CNY in 25H1, with a breakdown of product revenues: hot pot condiments at 1.683 billion CNY (down 3.7%), Chinese compound condiments at 492 million CNY (up 8.2%), instant food at 709 million CNY (up 1.2%), and other products at 44 million CNY (up 78.7%) [5] - Third-party revenue from B-end and overseas business continues to grow, with third-party revenue reaching 2.064 billion CNY (up 6.5%) while related party revenue declined by 12.7% [6] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 25H1 was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to revenue structure adjustments and the rapid growth of lower-margin B-end business [7] - Other income increased by 216% to 91 million CNY, supported by foreign exchange gains and government subsidies [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see accelerated growth in B-end business and steady progress in overseas markets, with a focus on Southeast Asia and potential expansion into Africa, India, South America, and the Middle East [8] - The report projects a decline in net profit estimates for 2025-2027, with net profits adjusted to 812 million CNY, 899 million CNY, and 992 million CNY respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.927 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.39% year-on-year [9][4] - The performance of third-party sales remained robust, with third-party revenue reaching 2.06 billion CNY, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year, while related party revenue decreased by 12.7% [2][11] - The company plans to continue its mid-term dividend policy, proposing a dividend of 0.3107 HKD per share, totaling 293 million CNY, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 95% [15][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in gross margin from related party operations [3][12] - The company’s net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 10.6%, remaining stable year-on-year, supported by government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [3][12] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, related party revenue was 860 million CNY, down 12.7% year-on-year, while third-party revenue was 2.06 billion CNY, up 6.5% year-on-year [2][11] - The third-party segment saw significant growth in specific product categories, with revenue from beef oil base, dipping sauce, and fish seasoning increasing by 20.5%, 12.6%, and 15.1% respectively [2][11] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting total revenues of 6.87 billion CNY, 7.41 billion CNY, and 7.89 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, 7.9%, and 6.5% [4][16] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.75 CNY, 0.83 CNY, and 0.90 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving 2.927 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.39% [9][4] - The performance of third-party sales remained robust, with a significant increase in revenue from third-party products, particularly in the hot pot seasoning and ready-to-eat food segments, which saw revenue growth of 7.5% and 3.5% respectively [2][11] - The company plans to continue its mid-term dividend policy, proposing a dividend of 0.3107 HKD per share, totaling 293 million CNY, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 95% [15][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decrease in related party revenue by 12.7% to 860 million CNY, while third-party revenue increased by 6.5% to 2.06 billion CNY [2][11] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in gross margin from related party operations [3][12] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.87 billion CNY, 7.41 billion CNY, and 7.89 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.0%, 7.9%, and 6.5% respectively [4][16] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 770 million CNY, 860 million CNY, and 930 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 11.1%, and 8.8% respectively [4][16] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with plans to develop products tailored to local markets and establish direct sales channels for overseas customers [15][4] - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately 15.271 billion HKD, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 for 2025 [6][17]