格隆汇12月3日丨TCL科技(000100.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，过去几年，电视大尺寸化带来需求面积 的稳定增长，而行业供给侧产能则保持相对稳定，根据第三方机构数据，大尺寸LCD稼动率中枢逐年提 升，行业供需缺口显著收敛。 当前来看，由于明年是体育赛事大年，包括冬奥会和有史以来规模最大 的世界杯，下游品牌已逐渐开始备货，根据第三方机构预测，后续面板报价有望企稳回升。 ...

Core Insights - The large-size LCD shipment is expected to grow by 2.2% year-on-year, reaching 873.9 million units by 2025, despite declines in LCD TV and monitor shipments [1] - The large-size OLED market is projected to see a stronger growth of 19.0% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in OLED products for monitors and laptops [1] LCD Market Analysis - LCD TV shipments are forecasted to decline by 3.4% in 2025, while monitor shipments are expected to decrease by 1.8% [1] - The growth in LCD shipments for tablets and laptops is notable, with expected increases of 17.5% and 4.2% respectively, offsetting the declines in other segments [1] OLED Market Analysis - OLED shipments for monitors and laptops are anticipated to grow significantly, with year-on-year increases of 60.9% and 45.9% respectively [1] - OLED TV display shipments are expected to rise by 3.1%, while tablet OLED shipments are projected to decline by 2.3% [1] Market Share and Key Players - By 2025, China is expected to dominate the large-size LCD market with a 67.6% share, followed by Taiwan at 21.0% and South Korea at 8.1% [4] - BOE is projected to lead the large-size LCD market with a 37.1% share, followed by China Star at 16.8% and Innolux at 11.4% [4] - In the OLED market, South Korea is expected to hold an 83.7% share, with Samsung Display leading at 54.3%, followed by LG Display at 29.4% [4] Revenue Projections - China is anticipated to account for 83.7% of the total revenue in the large-size display market by 2025, with South Korea and Taiwan following at 18.0% and 14.7% respectively [4] - BOE is expected to lead in revenue share with 29.7%, followed by China Star at 20.2% and LG Display at 12.4% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - TCL Technology reported a revenue of 164.823 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.564 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 40.076 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 1.013 billion yuan, a significant increase of 321.96% [2][6] - The photovoltaic segment showed improvement, with TCL Zhonghuan reporting a net loss of 9.818 billion yuan in 2024, and a loss of 1.906 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 49% quarter-on-quarter improvement. This aligns with previous expectations of reduced losses [2][12] - The large-size LCD segment experienced both volume and price increases, while OLED turned profitable. The acquisition of LG's Guangzhou line and the repurchase of minority shareholder equity contributed positively to the company's fundamentals [12] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, TCL Technology's total revenue is projected at 164.963 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 19.218 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.564 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.08 yuan [18] - The financial forecasts for 2025 and 2026 indicate a revenue increase to 201.570 billion yuan and 225.171 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 5.930 billion yuan and 9.177 billion yuan, leading to EPS of 0.32 yuan and 0.49 yuan [18] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with projections of 12% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [18] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - TCL Technology achieved significant market positions in various segments, ranking second globally in TV panel shipments and display panel shipments, first in LTPS notebook and tablet shipments, and fourth in flexible OLED smartphone panel shipments [12] - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through improved production capacity and operational efficiency, with TCL Zhonghuan's silicon wafer capacity reaching 200GW by the end of Q1 2025 [12]