商业航天产业发展 20260108 摘要 国内商业航天火箭公司主要分为液体火箭和固液并存两种发展路径，蓝 箭、天兵和深蓝专注于液体火箭，中科星河、星际荣耀和东方空间则固 液并存。蓝箭采用一氧甲烷路线，中科宇航和星河的液体火箭发展迅速。 商业火箭公司面临资质困境，自 2022 年底至 2025 年 5 月未发放新的 固体或液体总体技术科研生产许可资质。市场竞争激烈，火箭需满足运 力需求和价格优势，中科宇航与星河占据商业卫星搭载市场大部分份额。 中国版 09 构型的大型、中大型运载火箭包括长 12B、长 10B/C 以及朱 雀 3 等，采用单杆多级捆绑设计以提高运力并降低成本。长 12B 的造价 与发射成本将比长五小一半以上，天龙 3 具备更高的运载能力。 固体火箭在大规模组网业务中成本劣势明显，引力 1 号单次发展成本至 少 1.5 亿元，而朱雀二 E 价格约为 8,000 万元。资本市场更看重液态燃 料方案的性价比优势，一吨级别区间仍是黄金运力。 液体火箭发动机的自主生产研制能力至关重要，蓝箭的天鹊 12、天兵的 天火 12、深蓝的雷霆、星际荣耀的焦点以及星动力的苍穹等发动机已完 成长续航试车。天龙 3 的天 ...

Summary of Commercial Aerospace Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **commercial aerospace industry** and its recent developments, highlighting three significant turning points: policy, performance, and technology [1][2][3]. Key Points Policy Turning Point - The establishment of a dedicated bureau for commercial aerospace indicates the government's commitment to the industry, aiming to address challenges in **rocket reusability technology** and integrate advantages from the information and communication sectors [1][4][5]. - The government plans to introduce major companies like **Huawei** and **ZTE** to enhance satellite internet development towards **6G**, leveraging existing mobile communication industry strengths [3][6]. Performance Turning Point - Since August 2025, there has been a significant increase in **launch frequency** due to large-scale new project tenders, with companies like **Chen Chang** and **Zheng Lei** showing marked improvement in their performance during the first three quarters of the year [1][4]. - The commercial aerospace sector has outperformed the broader market, driven by the establishment of new companies and increased launch activities [2][10]. Technology Turning Point - The domestic liquid engine technology for **reusable rockets** is maturing, with breakthroughs expected in the first half of 2026. The industry is adopting a collaborative approach, involving multiple companies to tackle the challenges of rocket reusability [1][4][5][18]. - The **NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network)** system is crucial for the future of satellite internet, with China positioned to develop this system effectively due to its advanced **5G network** and clear **6G roadmap** [3][7]. Additional Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is viewed as a long-term investment opportunity rather than a short-term theme, with significant catalysts expected from the upcoming launches of reusable rockets and the establishment of new companies [10][15]. - The **ground terminal segment** is identified as the most valuable market within the commercial aerospace industry, with significant growth potential as user numbers and application scenarios increase [20]. - The **Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Ecological Conference** revealed plans for over **7,000 satellites** and **500 rocket launches** in the next five years, indicating strong confidence in the industry's future [19]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies involved in the **rocket launch supply chain**, **satellite manufacturing**, and **ground terminal development**. Specific attention should be given to the upcoming test flights of new reusable rockets and the results of ground terminal tenders [21][22].