1月22日，蓝箭航天科创板IPO进入"已问询"状态。几天前，中科宇航IPO辅导已验收，星河动力、天兵 科技、星际荣耀密集更新IPO辅导进展。至此，"中国版SpaceX"阵营开启"第一股"争夺战。 最新消息显示，SpaceX目标是在今年7月前完成IPO，公司正在物色投资银行。一场贯穿技术、资本与 战略资源的太空竞赛，已悄然升温。 上市进程：五企竞速，蓝箭先一步被问询 目前，五家中国商业航天企业虽同处IPO赛道，但竞跑节奏已明显分化。其中，蓝箭航天凭借最快的推 进速度，暂时领跑这场"商业航天第一股"的争夺战。 值得一提的是，在蓝箭航天递交招股书前，发生多次股份转让和增资，亦有股东清仓撤退。 比如，招股书显示，2025年12月8日，上海科慧分别与诺瓦星云、吴玉培、简江签署《股份转让协议》 约定，将其所持蓝箭航天股份全部转让给后者，共计套现2.61亿元。 其冲刺背后，直接受益于科创板的制度创新。2025年6月，科创板"第五套上市标准"适用范围拓宽至商 业航天等前沿科技领域，为尚未盈利但技术领先的企业打开了资本市场大门。 政策东风之下，蓝箭航天迅速响应，于次月启动辅导备案，仅用5个月便完成验收，速度甚至超过了此 前备受 ...

随着商业航天进入规模化发射阶段，火箭降本路径日趋明确：高载重与可回收技术正在重塑成本结构。在这一过程中，推进剂与特种气体作为唯 一无法削减的消耗品，需求与发射次数高度相关，其价值量与成本占比持续提升，逐步成为商业航天最稳定、最可预测的价值环节。 据东吴证券袁理团队22日发布的研报数据显示，中国火箭发射次数正经历快速增长，2025年中国火箭发射次数达92次，其中商业发射50次，较 2020年的39次总发射量大幅增长。发射基础设施同步完善，中国现有工位总数21个，在建及规划5个，已构建起涵盖内陆、滨海及海上发射的立体 化体系。商业发射占比提升，驱动行业更加聚焦发射经济性。 可回收技术显著改变了成本分布。根据东吴证券测算，猎鹰9号单次发射推进剂与特气需求合计成本约80万美元。考虑火箭可回收，火箭成本从 5000万美元下降至1500万美元，但推进剂与特气需求刚性保持单次80万美元，单次发射成本占比从1.6%提升至5.3%。可重复使用技术显著压缩了 制造成本在单次发射中的占比，但并未降低推进剂消耗，回收过程甚至需要额外燃料储备。 这一趋势对投资者具有明确指向意义。火箭制造与卫星产业链面临技术迭代与市场竞争的不确定性，而 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiufeng Energy, highlighting its potential in the commercial aerospace sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is transitioning into a phase of scaled launches, with supply capabilities continuously being released. This shift is characterized by an increase in launch frequency and demand for launch services [9]. - The cost structure of launches is evolving, with a clear path towards cost reduction through high payload capacity and reusability of rockets. The unit launch cost in China is expected to decrease significantly from approximately 115,000 RMB per kilogram in 2020 to around 45,000 RMB per kilogram by 2029 [28]. - The demand for propellants and special gases is becoming increasingly rigid, with their value and share in the overall cost structure expected to rise over time. Liquid oxygen and methane are emerging as preferred propellant choices due to their advantages in reusability and operational efficiency [37][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is moving from a capability-building phase to a scaled launch phase, driven by the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellation construction [9]. - China's launch infrastructure has developed a comprehensive system, including multiple inland and coastal launch sites, enhancing overall launch capacity [10]. 2. Cost Structure and Reduction Pathways - The cost structure of launches is being dissected, revealing that consumable elements like propellants are becoming more significant as launch frequencies increase. The rigid nature of these costs is highlighted as a core constraint in the industry [17][19]. - The unit cost of launching satellites is a critical economic indicator, with current costs in China being higher than those of international competitors like SpaceX. The report indicates that the unit launch cost for the Falcon 9 has decreased to approximately 20,000 RMB per kilogram [23][25]. 3. Propellant and Special Gas Demand - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of propellant selection in the context of reusability and operational stability. Liquid oxygen and methane are positioned as the leading choices for future rocket designs due to their cleaner combustion and lower maintenance requirements [39][41]. - Jiufeng Energy is recommended for its strategic positioning in the supply of special gases and propellants, which are expected to see long-term growth in value and market share [1][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiufeng Energy, highlighting its potential in the commercial aerospace sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is transitioning into a phase of scaled launches, with supply capabilities being continuously released. This shift is characterized by an increase in launch frequency and demand for launch services [9]. - The cost structure of launch services is evolving, with a clear path towards cost reduction through high payload capacity and reusable technology. The unit cost of launching is expected to decrease significantly by 2029 [29]. - The demand for propellants and special gases is becoming increasingly rigid, with their value and share in the overall cost structure expected to rise over time [38]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The commercial aerospace sector is moving from a capability-building phase to a scaled launch phase, driven by the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellation construction [9]. - China's launch infrastructure has developed a comprehensive system, including multiple launch sites that enhance operational efficiency and specialization [10][11]. 2. Cost Constraints and Reduction Pathways - The cost structure of launch services is divided into fixed, semi-fixed, and variable costs, with propellants and special gases representing the most rigid costs [19][22]. - The unit cost of launching is currently high, but it is projected to decrease from approximately 115,000 RMB per kilogram in 2020 to around 45,000 RMB per kilogram by 2029 [29][24]. - High payload capacity and reusable technology are recognized as key methods for reducing costs in the industry [29]. 3. Propellant and Special Gas Demand - The choice of rocket fuel is evolving, with liquid oxygen and methane emerging as a prominent option due to their cleaner combustion and lower carbon buildup, which is advantageous for high-frequency reuse [39][40]. - The report outlines the comparative advantages of different rocket fuel technologies, emphasizing the long-term coexistence of liquid oxygen and kerosene alongside liquid oxygen and methane [41][42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Jiufeng Energy is recommended for its strategic positioning in the supply of special fuels and gases for commercial aerospace, with expected net profits of 1.56 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.13 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a capital frenzy, with the Wind Commercial Aerospace Theme Index rising nearly 60% in two months, but underlying challenges and risks are becoming apparent in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commercial aerospace concept stocks are witnessing a surge, with the Wind Commercial Aerospace Theme Index increasing nearly 60% from November 21, 2025, to January 20, 2026, and several stocks reaching historical highs [2]. - In the primary market, companies are aggressively pursuing financing, with Micro Nano Star completing 1.56 billion yuan in equity financing in 2025, aimed at enhancing R&D and production capacity [2]. - The IPO process for commercial aerospace companies is accelerating, with Blue Arrow Aerospace's application to raise 7.5 billion yuan accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and other companies like Zhongke Aerospace and Star River Power also moving forward with their IPOs [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Blue Arrow Aerospace reported revenues of 780,000 yuan, 3.95 million yuan, and 4.28 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net losses of 800 million yuan, 1.188 billion yuan, and 876 million yuan; in the first half of 2025, revenue increased to 36.43 million yuan but still recorded a net loss of 597 million yuan, totaling over 2.8 billion yuan in net losses over three and a half years [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The commercial aerospace industry is still in its early stages, with significant challenges in validating low-cost, reusable heavy-lift rocket technology and improving the mass production capabilities of commercial satellites [4]. - Recent failures in two rocket launches on January 17, 2026, highlight the high-risk nature of aerospace launches and the difficulties in transitioning from single technical breakthroughs to stable mass production [4]. - The submission of over 200,000 satellite orbit frequency applications to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has been clarified as a routine operation, emphasizing the need for rational market expectations regarding satellite deployment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the long-term development direction of the commercial aerospace industry is becoming clearer, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for technological breakthroughs, particularly in reusable heavy-lift rockets [5][6]. - The successful completion of the first launch mission at the Hainan commercial aerospace launch site in January 2026 indicates progress in enhancing launch efficiency [5]. - Industry experts predict that 2026 will witness a transition from quantitative to qualitative changes in the commercial rocket sector, marking China's entry into the era of reusable rockets [5][6].

中美太空资源与安全的大决战。 都挂在嘴边的"商业航天"——自去年11月底，A股"商业航天"板块中264家关联公司、乃至只蹭了个概念的公司，基本都完成了股价翻倍。对应指数从1897 点一路飙涨到3118点，涨幅高达64%，流动成交额甚至超过8万亿人民币！ 这一切疯狂的开始，仅仅是西北戈壁滩上的一次实验，但最终落在了中美两国决战太空资源与太空安全的关键节点上。 A股最近几天彻底爆了。 从12月17号到1月12号，上证指数拿下破纪录的17连阳，气势如虹到今天才迎来勉强像样的调整，让一众专家和老股民面面相觑。 而引爆这场资本狂欢的，就是最近所有人 寒风凛冽、人烟稀少的东风航天城迎来一大批不速之客。这批人统一开着车、拿着手机摄像机、穿着厚厚的羽绒服，不是专业记者也不是相关从业人员， 而是来自全国各地的投资人与自媒体博主。他们站在航天城外围荒地上，紧紧盯着发射场内那枚明显粗了一圈的火箭。 这就是已经两次推迟发射、终于亮相的"朱雀三号"。这场本属科研与验证范畴的发射早被强行赋予了新的意义，连带"朱雀三号"的所属公司蓝箭航天，也 第一次出圈走入大众视野。 没办法，这是国内首枚发射的、要进行垂直回收实验的火箭。直接对标的是马斯 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华鑫证券发布研报称，2026年可回收火箭突破或成行业关键节点。政策支持、国际 电联频轨资源抢占及SpaceX成功模式共同驱动我国商业航天发展。国内星座计划加速推进，未来五年 存在显著卫星发射缺口，推动发射服务转向"卖方市场"。产业链方面，卫星侧关注批产放量的通信载荷 与芯片环节，火箭侧聚焦回收技术及降本增效的制造与材料供应商。 华鑫证券主要观点如下： 空天资源紧缺，三因素驱动商业航天业务爆发 政策支持、ITU强制要求及空天资源抢占驱动商业航天业务爆发。1、政策支持：2025年作为"新质生产 力"落地元年，随着国家航天局商业航天司的设立及科创板第五套标准的放宽，政策红利正加速转化为 产业红利。2、ITU（国际电联）频轨资源"先到先得"规则及"里程碑"发射要求，为我国"国网"与"千 帆"两大星座按下了加速键。未来5年，我国面临约2500颗卫星的发射缺口，发射服务将从"卖方市场"转 向"供不应求"，倒逼运力爆发。3、空天资源有限，低轨空间轨道（LEO）和无线电频率（Ka/Ku/V/Q/V 等频段）是具有战略属性的不可再生资源，我国需快速发射卫星维持组网要求，并掌握太空"路权"。 Space X" ...

3D 打印行业系列专家会议 - 3D 打印在商业航天的发展现 状与未来展望 20260108 摘要 3D 打印在液体火箭发动机制造中作用显著，尤其在可重复使用发动机的 复杂结构（如冷却流道）制造上，能提高材料利用率并缩短生产周期， 降低对传统高端工艺和大国工匠的依赖。 液体火箭发动机中 3D 打印零件的价值占比接近一半，国外先进发动机 甚至高达 80%-90%，表明 3D 打印在火箭制造中具有巨大的成本和效 率优势，并可能进一步提升。 国内商业航天企业在火箭和发动机制造中广泛采用 3D 打印技术，渗透 率高，尤其是在发动机制造领域，约 90%的企业考虑使用，以应对传统 工艺难以实现的设计。 当前主流火箭发动机制造采用选择性激光熔融（SLM）工艺，能提供较 好的表面质量，简化后处理流程，主要使用高温合金、不锈钢和铜合金 等材料。 火箭发动机和储箱是火箭制造中成本最高的部件，3D 打印在发动机制造 中的成本占比可达一半左右，随着技术成熟和批量化生产，成本有望进 一步降低。 Q&A 3D 打印技术在商业航天中的应用现状及未来展望如何？ 目前，3D 打印技术在商业航天领域的应用主要集中在液体火箭发动机的生产上。 由于 ...

作为资本市场焦点赛道，商业航天板块近期涨势未减。2025年12月24日以来，万得商业航天主题指数实 现八连阳，累计涨幅超36%。 火箭发射次数创新高 据央视网报道，2025年我国在载人航天、深空探测、商业航天等领域完成多项突破，实现多个首次。 2025年，中国航天全年发射次数创历史新高，达到92次，发射次数较2024年全年增加超过三成，标志着 我国航天发射能力进入了"常态化、高频化、规模化"的新阶段。 资本市场上也传来了IPO的新消息。2025年12月31日，蓝箭航天科创板IPO获受理；电科蓝天科创板IPO 注册获同意。 展望2026年，业内人士普遍认为，在政策与技术双轮驱动下，中国商业航天预计将迎来火箭发射的"大 年"。 火箭可回收技术加速验证 作为商业航天产业链的上游，火箭回收复用不仅能大幅降低发射成本，还可以显著提升发射任务的响应 效率。 据集邦咨询数据，目前部分可回收火箭成本（报价）为6700万美元左右，随着全球主要大厂积极发展可 回收技术，在达成全面回收的情况下，有望将发射成本（报价）降低至200万至500万美元。 国金证券提出，国内可复用火箭已进入密集发射期，商业火箭产业"从0到1"迈入快速迭代的 ...

作为资本市场焦点赛道，商业航天板块近期涨势未减。2025年12月24日以来，万得商业航天主题指数实 现八连阳，累计涨幅超36%。 火箭发射次数创新高 据央视网报道，2025年我国在载人航天、深空探测、商业航天等领域完成多项突破，实现多个首次。 2025年，中国航天全年发射次数创历史新高，达到92次，发射次数较2024年全年增加超过三成，标志着 我国航天发射能力进入了"常态化、高频化、规模化"的新阶段。 资本市场上也传来了IPO的新消息。2025年12月31日，蓝箭航天科创板IPO获受理；电科蓝天科创板IPO 注册获同意。 展望2026年，业内人士普遍认为，在政策与技术双轮驱动下，中国商业航天预计将迎来火箭发射的"大 年"。 火箭可回收技术加速验证 作为商业航天产业链的上游，火箭回收复用不仅能大幅降低发射成本，还可以显著提升发射任务的响应 效率。 据集邦咨询数据，目前部分可回收火箭成本(报价)为6700万美元左右，随着全球主要大厂积极发展可回 收技术，在达成全面回收的情况下，有望将发射成本(报价)降低至200万至500万美元。 面对高成本、星多箭少的现状，可回收技术是国内商业火箭公司实现降本的必经之路，更是突破 ...