Core Viewpoint - QDII funds are experiencing significant premium risks at the beginning of 2026, with over 20 funds issuing premium risk alerts due to trading prices exceeding net asset values [1][2] Group 1: Premium Risk Alerts - More than 20 QDII funds have issued premium risk alerts covering various products including Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and others [1] - On January 6, both Huaxia Fund and Invesco Fund's Nasdaq 100 ETF issued a premium risk alert, indicating that market prices are significantly higher than the reference net asset value [1] - This marks the third premium risk alert for these two funds in 2026, with multiple alerts also issued by other funds like the Huatai-PB Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF and the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis - As of January 6, over half of the 200 cross-border ETFs in the market are in a premium state, with the highest premium rate exceeding 22% and over 20 products having a premium rate greater than 4% [2] - The surge in QDII product premiums is attributed to rising overseas markets and limited purchase quotas, leading investors to buy in the secondary market, thus driving up premiums [2] - High premiums pose significant risks, especially when liquidity is low, as large investments may face difficulties in selling, leading to potential losses [2] Group 3: Growth of QDII Funds - QDII funds have rapidly developed as a tool for investors to expand overseas asset allocation, with the total scale of QDII funds exceeding 810 billion yuan, doubling in size compared to the end of 2023 [2]

Group 1 - The QDII fund market is experiencing a significant tightening of purchase limits, with some popular products reducing daily purchase limits to as low as 10 RMB, indicating a near "closure" of access [1][2] - As of December 21, over 90 QDII products have adjusted their purchase rules, reflecting a broader trend of tightening across the market, particularly for funds related to US and Japanese stocks [2][3] - The tightening of purchase limits is a response to high demand for overseas assets, with many funds facing pressure to manage their operations effectively [3] Group 2 - The scarcity of QDII quotas has led to a persistent high premium phenomenon, with over 550 risk warning announcements issued in the past month, indicating significant investor interest and potential risks [4][5] - Notably, the Southern S&P 500 ETF has issued 32 risk warnings in the last month, with an IOPV premium rate exceeding 5% as of December 19 [4] - High premiums are prevalent across various popular cross-border ETFs, with many products showing IOPV premium rates above 5%, despite repeated warnings from fund companies about the risks of blind investment [5][6] Group 3 - Investor optimism regarding overseas markets, particularly US stocks, is driving the demand for QDII products, with expectations for further growth in the S&P 500 index [7][8] - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could reach 7,300 points by mid-2024 and 7,700 points by the end of 2026, driven by advancements in AI and corporate earnings growth [7] - There is a shift anticipated from a "tech bull" market to a broader "expansion bull" market, with expectations of more balanced performance across different sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple QDII funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index, including the Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF, Huaxia Nasdaq 100 ETF, and Huatai-PB Nasdaq 100 ETF, have issued premium risk alerts due to significant trading prices in the secondary market exceeding the reference net asset value of the funds [1] Group 1 - The announcement highlights that the trading prices of the related funds are significantly higher than their reference net asset values, indicating a substantial premium [1] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the premium risk associated with the trading prices in the secondary market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in demand for cross-border ETFs among domestic investors is accompanied by significant premium pricing, raising concerns about market overheating and potential risks for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 18, 19 public fund companies have issued over 330 risk warning announcements regarding 34 cross-border investment products, indicating a heightened awareness of premium risks [1]. - The average premium rate for 192 cross-border ETFs in the market is 0.79%, with 32 products exceeding 1% and 2 products surpassing 10%, highlighting a significant disconnect between price and value [1]. - The Nikkei 225 index has recently declined from historical highs, and major U.S. stock indices have also experienced notable drops, exacerbating the risks associated with high premiums [1]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Professor Tian Lihui from Nankai University emphasizes that while cross-border ETFs are essential for global asset allocation, the current premium phenomenon suggests that investor enthusiasm may have surpassed rational valuation [2]. - Analysts suggest that the cash creation and redemption mechanism of cross-border ETFs, combined with foreign exchange quota restrictions, can lead to mismatches in supply and demand, driving up secondary market prices and resulting in high premiums [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, the long-term demand for cross-border ETFs remains strong, with a year-to-date growth of 116.86%, reaching 919.949 billion yuan, and a net inflow of over 34 billion yuan in November alone [4]. - Industry experts advocate for a rational investment framework and ongoing investor education to mitigate the risks associated with high premiums and to promote a long-term perspective on cross-border ETF investments [4].