新京报贝壳财经记者 胡萌 编辑 杨娟娟 校对 杨利 连日来，上证指数连续突破3600点、3700点关口，且一度破十年前高点，8月20日，市场主要指数持续 走强，上证指数涨1.04%报3766.21点，北证50再次刷新历史纪录。市场情绪持续高涨，"牛市"之声再 起。 站在当前这个关键节点，A股下一步将何去何从？面对如此行情，普通投资者又该如何应对？新京报贝 壳财经围绕相关热点话题直播连线国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员、复旦大学管理学院特聘教授 邵宇进行深度解读。 本轮市场情绪由科技革新（如DeepSeek）、外部美联储降息预期及地缘缓和等因素推动，近期军工及 新质生产力相关预期也逐渐明晰，叙事呈现"科技牛"等多元特点。 总体而言，两轮行情在基本面托举、流动性充裕及情绪驱动上有相似之处，但政策力度、杠杆渠道和叙 事逻辑存在差异，需细致甄别。 新京报贝壳财经：哪些因素可能会影响本轮行情的走势？ 邵宇指出，当前市场出现高风险资产与避险资产齐涨，而债券等资产表现承压的独特现象，股债"跷跷 板"效应近日尤为明显，因此推荐投资者采用"杠铃策略"进行资产配置，其特征在于"进可攻退可守"。 ▲国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研 ...

作者 | 李笑寅 编辑 | 硬 AI 科技巨头财报季来临，市场似乎很自满，高盛警告仍有风险。 自4月低点以来，标普500指数已上涨26%，主要由科技股推动。未来两周内，科技板块ETFXLK指数中 50%的权重股票将公布业绩。本周三，谷歌母公司Alphabet和特斯拉将率先公布二季度业绩，IBM和德州 仪器等也将陆续登场。 值得警惕的是，高盛数据显示， 当前市场对科技股财报日的预期波动率已降至20年来最低水平，仅为 4.7%，而这种异常的市场平静往往暗示着潜在风险。 分板块看，半导体板块目前是TMT领域最拥挤的投资标的，英伟达、博通、台积电等是最受欢迎的做多标的；软件板块 情绪持续走低，仅微软、甲骨文等头部公司预期向好；互联网板块多空比例处于中位水平，投资者仍关注企业AI应用的 ROI。 硬·AI 微软获得机构持仓集中度评级9分，今年市值增加6500亿美元至接近4万亿美元，成功突破18个月的盘整 格局。 投资者预期其Azure业务本季度增长将达到30%以上。 最受欢迎的软件股做多标的包括微软、Snowflake、甲骨文、ServiceNow和CrowdStrike。做空标的则包 括Adobe、Workday、A ...

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has significantly reduced its holdings in technology stocks while increasing its investment in gold ETFs, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation [1][3][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - In the first quarter, Bridgewater cut its position in the S&P 500 ETF by nearly 60%, reducing its stake from 22% to 8.7% [3] - Major technology stocks were heavily reduced: Google A shares by 16%, Nvidia by 18.74%, and Meta by 31% [3] - However, Bridgewater increased its positions in Microsoft and Amazon, suggesting a selective approach rather than a blanket bearish stance on technology [3] Group 2: Gold Investment - Bridgewater has made gold ETFs a significant part of its portfolio, purchasing 110,600 shares of SPDR Gold ETF, making it the sixth-largest holding [3][4] - Ray Dalio stated that gold is the only asset that can hedge against sovereign currency risks, with the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 dropping to -0.18, indicating gold's potential as a safe haven during stock market downturns [3][4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The fund's actions are influenced by rising interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which typically negatively impacts high-valuation technology stocks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, are also contributing to a cautious investment environment, prompting global central banks to buy 228 tons of gold in the first quarter, 34% above the five-year average [4] Group 4: Focus on Chinese Assets - While reducing exposure to U.S. tech stocks, Bridgewater has aggressively increased its holdings in Chinese companies, notably Alibaba, which saw an increase from 255,000 shares to 5.66 million shares, valued at $748 million [4] - This strategy reflects a belief in the potential of Chinese assets to provide a counterbalance to risks in U.S. markets [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious with technology stocks, particularly those with inflated valuations, while considering opportunities in established companies like Microsoft and Apple [5] - A recommendation is made to allocate a portion of investments to gold, given its long-term support from Fed rate expectations and geopolitical risks [5] - Chinese assets are highlighted as having significant growth potential, particularly in e-commerce and cloud computing, while cautioning against companies with compliance risks [5]

Core Insights - The book "The Money Trap: Lost Illusions Inside the Tech Bubble" by Alok Sama offers a unique perspective on the tech industry and investment banking, blending personal anecdotes with broader cultural references [1][3][4] - Sama's narrative style is likened to a novel, incorporating elements of existential reflection and humor, which sets it apart from typical non-fiction works in the finance genre [4][9][10] Summary by Sections Author Background - Alok Sama, an investment banker with a background from Wharton, shares his experiences in the tech bubble, providing insights into the world of high finance and its cultural implications [1][4] - Despite his significant career, Sama is relatively unknown, lacking a personal Wikipedia entry, which highlights the contrast between his professional achievements and public recognition [4][7] Book Themes - The book explores the allure and pitfalls of wealth, using personal stories to illustrate the existential dilemmas faced by investment bankers [6][9] - It contrasts the lives of tech moguls like Masayoshi Son and Mark Zuckerberg with Sama's own experiences, suggesting that wealth accumulation often results from luck rather than extraordinary talent [8][9] Narrative Style - Sama's writing is described as engaging and rich in cultural references, drawing comparisons to literary figures like Saul Bellow and Salman Rushdie [4][5] - The narrative includes vivid scenes, such as meetings in luxurious settings, which serve to highlight the absurdities of the high-stakes finance world [3][5] Key Events and Characters - The book recounts significant events from Sama's career, including his time at Morgan Stanley and SoftBank, where he witnessed the rise and fall of major companies [6][7] - Notable figures in the book include Nikesh Arora, who serves as a mentor to Sama, and the various tech leaders who embody the contradictions of wealth and success [7][8] Philosophical Reflections - Sama reflects on the nature of ambition and the relentless pursuit of money, questioning the true value of success in a competitive environment [9][10] - The book concludes with a philosophical exploration of personal agency and destiny, drawing on literary influences to frame his narrative [9][10]

Group 1 - The core discussion revolves around the potential bubble in the humanoid robot industry, sparked by comments from investor Zhu Xiaohu about the need for mass exits from humanoid robot companies [2] - The debate includes various perspectives from entrepreneurs and investors, questioning the existence and definition of a bubble in the humanoid robot sector [2] - The article suggests that the discourse on bubbles should extend beyond the humanoid robot industry to consider the broader implications of bubbles on business and technology [2] Group 2 - The term "bubble" has historical roots, originating from the Latin word "bulla," and was first applied to economic phenomena during the 16th-century Dutch tulip mania [3] - Historical analysis of bubbles shows a pattern of collective cognitive bias leading to inflated asset prices, culminating in significant financial collapses [3] - The article emphasizes that while bubbles often result in wealth destruction and social upheaval, they are also a reflection of human nature's pursuit of speculative gains [3] Group 3 - The significance of bubbles in technology asset valuation differs from traditional asset bubbles, as technological bubbles can lead to substantial advancements despite initial failures [4] - The internet bubble of the late 1990s, for instance, resulted in the emergence of foundational technologies that shaped the digital economy, despite many startups failing [5] - Similarly, the solar energy bubble led to a concentration of patents among leading firms, accelerating technological development in the sector [5] Group 4 - Investors in venture capital face the dual challenge of supporting technological advancements while guarding against speculative excesses that can inflate asset prices [6] - The article outlines the need for venture capitalists to identify and manage bubble risks through various indicators and metrics [6] Group 5 - A set of eight indicators has been developed to assess the emergence of bubbles in industries, including growth rates of company numbers and financing amounts [7] - For example, a significant increase in the number of companies in a sector, such as a 200% annual growth rate, may signal irrational exuberance [8] Group 6 - The financing heat indicator reflects the growth rate of total financing in a sector, which can lead to a rapid increase in asset values [9] - Historical examples illustrate how spikes in financing correlate with the emergence of bubbles, such as the shared economy bubble in 2015 [9] Group 7 - Non-rational pricing indicators, such as price-to-sales (PS) ratios, can highlight discrepancies between startup valuations and established industry leaders, signaling potential bubbles [12] - The article cites instances where PS ratios for unprofitable companies reached unsustainable levels, indicating a bubble [12] Group 8 - Exit channel indicators, such as the high rate of SPACs trading below their initial public offering prices, can signal the onset of a bubble [13] - The influx of traditional industry players into emerging sectors often precedes significant valuation distortions, indicating bubble conditions [13] Group 9 - Talent acquisition indicators, such as inflated salary levels in emerging sectors, can also signal bubble conditions, as seen during the ICO boom [14] - The article notes that excessive salary growth relative to industry revenue can foreshadow a bubble's collapse [14] Group 10 - Media attention and narrative heat can act as accelerators for bubbles, with spikes in media coverage often preceding market corrections [15] - Regulatory behaviors, such as increased scrutiny and guidance, can also indicate the presence of a bubble in certain sectors [16] Group 11 - The article concludes that while historical data can provide insights into bubble dynamics, the unique context of each industry must be considered [17] - The ability to adapt to changing economic conditions and recognize the fluidity of bubble indicators is crucial for investors [17]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 "我看到了中国强的一面。" 整理丨 蒲凡 来源丨 投中网 作为中国风险投资行业史上最富标志性的名字，符绩勋近几年的动作，似乎很好地投射了当下中国创投行业的整体状态，关键词是"思考"、"重 构"和"再出发"： 2023 年， GGV 宣布将两地业务进行拆分，并不再使用已沿用 18 年的" GGV "这一英文品牌——在近期的《超级投资家》上，符绩勋说这个决定 是"艰难"、"心酸"、但也很必要的事—— 2024 年，纪源资本主动放慢投资节奏，开始重构能力模型，比如对团队的组织架构进行了调整，再比如开 始拓展债权能力。 4 月 16 日，在 " 第 19 届中国投资年会 · 年度峰会 " 上，投中信息 CEO 杨晓磊与纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋进行了一次现场版《超级拾日谈》。 会上，符绩勋谈到了他对当下的市场分化、科技泡沫、企业出海、投资策略的观察与思考。 以下为现场实录，由投中网进行整理： 我看到了中国强的一面 杨晓磊： 容我先介绍一下符绩勋先生。符绩勋先生是行业 " 老炮 " ，同时是新加坡人，不远万里在中国做 VC 做了 30 年。我今天特别想聊几个问 题，第一，这背 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical context of the tech bubble of 2000 and compares it to the current state of technology stocks, particularly focusing on the "Magnificent 7" tech giants, while highlighting the lessons learned and potential risks ahead. Group 1: Historical Context of the Tech Bubble - The late 1990s saw an unprecedented surge in internet commercialization, leading to a massive influx of capital and a dramatic rise in tech stock valuations, with the Nasdaq index increasing fivefold from 1995 to early 2000 [2] - The peak of the tech bubble was characterized by extreme valuations, with the Nasdaq's P/E ratio reaching 200, and individual stocks like Qualcomm soaring by 2619% in 1999 [3] - The bubble burst in March 2000, resulting in a loss of over 34% in the Nasdaq index within a month and a subsequent decline of nearly 80% by October 2002, leading to significant investor losses and company bankruptcies [4] Group 2: Current Tech Landscape - The current tech environment, particularly around AI, is marked by high investment enthusiasm, but the market conditions differ fundamentally from those in 2000, particularly in terms of valuation and underlying business strength [4][5] - The "Magnificent 7" tech giants are seen as mature companies with strong earnings, cash flows, and established business models, contrasting with the speculative nature of many companies during the 2000 bubble [8][9] Group 3: Risks Facing Current Tech Giants - High market concentration poses a risk, as the "Magnificent 7" account for over 20% of the total market capitalization of global indices, meaning their performance significantly impacts the overall market [10][11] - Excessive capital expenditure in AI and related infrastructure could lead to diminishing returns, similar to the over-investment seen in the telecom sector during the previous tech boom [13][14] - New competitors, including those from emerging markets, pose a threat to established tech giants, as history shows that market leadership can shift rapidly with technological advancements [14][15] Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and diversified approach in the tech sector, recognizing the cyclical nature of technology development and the importance of fundamental analysis [16][17] - Emphasizing diversification across different segments and industries can help mitigate risks and capture broader growth opportunities [16] - Maintaining awareness of innovation trends is crucial, as advancements in AI, cloud computing, and other technologies will continue to shape the economic landscape [17]

" 欧米伽未来研究所 " 关注科技未来发展趋势，研究人类向欧米伽点演化过程中面临的重大机遇与挑战。将不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要科技研究进 展和未来趋势研究。（ 点击这里查看欧米伽理论 ） 2025年的春天，距离那场席卷全球的互联网科技泡沫宣告破灭，已经过去了整整二十五年。那是一个狂热与梦想交织的时代，也是一个幻灭与阵 痛并存的时代。当年的硝烟早已散尽，但历史的钟摆似乎又一次摆向了相似的位置——科技股，尤其是以美国"七巨头"（Magnificent 7）为代表 的科技巨头，在经历了近年来的辉煌增长后，于2025年初也遭遇了显著回调。这不禁让人发问：我们是否又站在了新一轮泡沫的边缘？历史会简 单地重演吗？高盛集团在科技泡沫破裂25周年之际发布了一份深度报告，试图剖析两次科技浪潮的异同，并从中汲取经验教训。本文将基于这份 报告，带您回顾那段波澜壮阔的历史，审视当下的科技格局，并展望未来的机遇与风险。 第一章：那一场席卷全球的狂热与幻灭 二十世纪末，互联网的商业化浪潮以前所未有的力量席卷全球。一个全新的、充满无限可能的数字世界展现在人们面前。"．com"成为了时代的 最强音，似乎只要与互联网沾边，就意味着拥有了点石 ...