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MEITUAN(3690.HK):COMPETITION REMAINS FIERCE WHILE INVESTMENT IMPACT LIKELY PEAKED OUT
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 05:07
Group 1: Financial Performance - For 3Q25E, Meituan is estimated to achieve revenue of RMB97.8 billion, reflecting a 4.6% year-over-year growth, but an adjusted net loss of RMB16.6 billion is expected, which is higher than the consensus of RMB12.6 billion due to intense competition in the food delivery sector [1] - The food delivery business is anticipated to incur an operating loss of RMB20.6 billion in 3Q25E, a significant decline from an operating profit of RMB9 billion in 3Q24, leading to a revised overall operating profit forecast for the core local commerce (CLC) business to -RMB15.5 billion [2] - For 4Q25E, a group-level adjusted net loss of RMB8.3 billion is expected, which is an improvement from 3Q25E but still higher than the consensus loss of RMB5.8 billion [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The impact of incremental investment on operating profit from the food delivery business is believed to have peaked in 3Q25, but the competitive environment's pace of improvement remains a critical factor to monitor [1][2] - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism that industry competition will return to rationality over time, allowing Meituan to maintain its leading position in quality food delivery orders [1] Group 3: New Initiatives and Forecast Revisions - Revenue growth for new initiatives is forecasted at 17.5% year-over-year with an operating loss of RMB2.35 billion in 3Q25E, with strategic transformations expected to reduce losses in Meituan Select in the second half of 2025 [3] - Key changes in forecasts include a 0-4% increase in 2025-2027E revenue estimates due to better-than-expected growth from international expansion, while operating profit forecasts for 2025E and 2026E have been cut to losses of RMB17.2 billion and RMB1.9 billion, respectively, due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [4]