智通财经APP获悉，曹操出行(02643)盘中涨近8%，截至发稿，涨6.22%，报32.78港元，成交额5558.74 万港元。 消息面上，12月30日，曹操出行宣布收购耀出行100%股权及拟收购吉利商旅100%股权。若收购案顺利 落地，耀出行、吉利商旅将成为曹操出行全资子公司。曹操出行表示，完成整合后，曹操出行将在企业 服务端释放显著协同效应，形成覆盖个人与企业、标准与高端、"出行+商旅"的一站式科技出行平台， 为企业客户提供一站式出行和商旅服务。 花旗认为，曹操出行有望借助耀出行在全球12个城市的服务网络以及吉利商旅的海外客户资源，加速其 国际扩张步伐，进一步巩固了其市场竞争力和生态系统整合能力。花旗认为，向企业客户和高端用户提 供服务将有助于提高曹操出行整体的用户平均收入(ARPU)和利润率水平，这些用户群体可能对平台具 有更高的忠诚度和粘性，并可能为曹操出行现有的整体出行业务带来交叉销售协同效应。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The LIFO effect for Q1 was just under $100 million, and for Q2, it is expected to be around $60 million due to higher incoming costs and tariffs [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 89 stores in Mexico and 7 or 8 in Brazil last year, indicating a strong focus on international expansion [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is diversifying its sourcing strategies across multiple countries and categories to mitigate tariff impacts and ensure a sustainable supply chain [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy includes opening around 300 stores domestically and 200 stores internationally by 2028, aiming for a total of approximately 500 stores globally [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the importance of providing excellent customer service and maintaining a strong commitment to their mission [15] Other Important Information - The appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the company's Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm for fiscal year 2026 was ratified [10] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the LIFO effect due to the tariffs, and are there any changes in the supply chain? - The LIFO effect is caused by incoming costs being higher than current inventory, with charges for Q1 just under $100 million and expected to be around $60 million for Q2 due to higher tariffs [12] - The company has been working on changing supply chain strategies since the first tariffs in 2016 and 2017, focusing on diversifying sourcing and having multiple suppliers to control costs [13] Question: What is the strategy for international expansion in Mexico? - The company plans to continue its strategy in Mexico and Brazil, having opened 89 stores in Mexico last year and aiming for a total of 500 stores globally by 2028 [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 9% in Q3 and 18% on a two-year basis, despite challenging housing market conditions [4] - Adjusted operating margin was 11.6%, below the guidance midpoint of 12.5% due to higher-than-expected tariff expenses [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was 17.6%, with free cash flow of $83 million in Q3 and $198 million year-to-date, on track to meet the annual target of $250 million to $300 million [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inventory decreased by 11% year-over-year and by $82 million compared to Q2, with a goal to reduce excess inventory estimated at $300 million [5] - Market share gains were noted from fragmented design showrooms and high-end furniture stores, with two-year share gains ranging from 12 to 28 points [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is navigating the worst housing market in nearly 50 years, with existing home sales projected to average 4.07 million from 2023 to 2025, a significant decrease compared to historical figures [9] - Tariffs have disrupted supply chains, leading to increased costs and product delays, with 16 tariff announcements in the past 10 months impacting operations [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth, emphasizing innovation and investment during challenging times, with plans for a significant product transformation launch in spring 2026 [10][11] - A global hospitality business is being developed to enhance brand awareness and cash flow, with the opening of RH Paris as a key milestone [11][12] - The establishment of a freestanding interior design firm aims to expand the brand's presence beyond product sales to space conceptualization [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the unusual market conditions and the risks associated with tariffs and supply chain disruptions, but remains optimistic about gaining market share [9][10] - The company plans to continue its aggressive investment strategy, believing that it will be well-positioned for growth when the housing market improves [10][62] Other Important Information - The company has acquired Michael Taylor Designs, enhancing its portfolio in the high-end interior design space [58] - The upcoming collection launch at Salone in Milan is expected to significantly impact the brand's growth trajectory over the next decade [54][55] Q&A Session Summary Question: How has the customer responded to price increases in Q3? - Management noted that they have implemented several price increases due to tariffs and are observing customer elasticity in response [47][48] Question: Can you provide insights on the new collection launching next year? - The new collection is anticipated to be the biggest incremental move for the company, targeting high-end architectural aesthetics and launching at Salone in Milan [54][55] Question: Should the company consider slowing the pace of initiatives for predictability? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining high ambitions and not compromising on growth strategies, even in a challenging environment [60][62]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's CEO Calvin McDonald will step down on January 31, following a year of poor performance, with the board seeking a new leader to guide the company's transformation [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Calvin McDonald will remain as a senior advisor until March 31 to ensure a smooth transition [1] - CFO Meghan Frank and CBO André Maestrini will serve as interim co-CEOs during the search for a new CEO [1] - Marti Morfitt, the board chair, will take on the additional role of executive chair [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Lululemon reported Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share, exceeding expectations of $2.25, with revenue of $2.57 billion, surpassing the forecast of $2.48 billion [3] - The company's net profit for the quarter was $306.84 million, down from $351.87 million in the same period last year [3] Group 3: Market Challenges - Sales increased to $2.57 billion from $2.4 billion year-over-year, but the company faces pressure from tariffs, weak U.S. consumer spending, and changing consumer preferences [4] - Lululemon is experiencing intense competition from emerging brands like Vuori and Alo Yoga, and consumers are shifting preferences towards jeans over yoga pants [4] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and diversifying its product line to include footwear, outerwear, and work-appropriate casual pants [4] Group 4: Business Dynamics - Overall business growth is driven by international operations and new store openings, while the Americas market continues to decline [5] - The termination of the "de minimis" tax exemption policy has impacted Lululemon more severely than its peers, with an expected profit reduction of $240 million due to tariffs [6]

Group 1: Accounts Receivable Management - The company's accounts receivable is relatively high, but it does not increase the risk of bad debts due to appropriate provisions made according to accounting policies [2] - Clients are well-known large enterprises both domestically and internationally, which mitigates risk [2] - The company emphasizes strengthening the management of accounts receivable [2] Group 2: Long-term Expenses and R&D Investment - The increase in long-term deferred expenses is primarily due to significant investments in R&D equipment, leading to higher depreciation and amortization [2] - Continuous investment in R&D focuses on air suspension, intelligent cockpit, and other emerging productivity areas [3] Group 3: Capital Structure Optimization - The company has introduced strategic investors through a targeted stock issuance to optimize its capital structure amid international expansion and new project investments [3] Group 4: Automotive Air Suspension Project - The company has plans for a targeted stock issuance to fund the production construction project for automotive air suspension systems and components, with detailed planning and expected benefits outlined in the disclosed fundraising prospectus [3]

Core Insights - E.L.F. is experiencing significant growth, highlighted by the acquisition of Road by Haley Bieber and plans for aggressive international expansion [1][38] - The company's marketing strategy has evolved, with marketing spend increasing from 7% to 24-26% of net sales, focusing on community engagement and celebrity partnerships [3][4][5] - E.L.F. aims to become the number one brand in color cosmetics, expand its skincare category, and increase international sales, which currently account for less than 20% of total sales [16][18] Marketing Strategy - Marketing is central to E.L.F.'s operations, with a substantial increase in marketing investment leading to high returns on investment [4][5] - The company partners with celebrities to enhance brand visibility and engagement, with successful collaborations including Alicia Keys and Haley Bieber [6][10] - E.L.F. maintains a consistent marketing spend across its brands, focusing on overall brand performance rather than individual celebrity influence [11][14] Growth Strategy - E.L.F.'s growth strategy is anchored in three key areas: leading in color cosmetics, expanding skincare, and increasing international presence [16][18] - The acquisition of Ntorium has significantly boosted E.L.F.'s skincare sales, which previously accounted for 9% of total sales and have since doubled [19] - The company is actively exploring international markets, leveraging community demand and partnerships with retailers like Rossman in Germany and Sephora in Australia [30][32] Financial Performance - E.L.F. has a strong cash position and is focused on investing in brand growth and infrastructure, including a recent SAP implementation [54][55] - The company has implemented a $1 price increase across all products as a strategy to mitigate tariff impacts, receiving positive feedback from consumers [52][53] - E.L.F. is cautious about providing future financial guidance due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, which currently stand at approximately 55% [58][64] Supply Chain and Tariffs - Approximately 75% of E.L.F.'s supply chain is still based in China, down from 99% five years ago, as part of a diversification strategy [48][49] - The company is mitigating tariff impacts through pricing adjustments, supply chain diversification, and expanding international sales [50][51] Distribution Channels - E.L.F. recognizes the evolving landscape of beauty retail, with non-beauty retailers like Gap re-entering the beauty space to drive traffic [65][66] - The company emphasizes convenience in distribution, aiming to meet consumer demand across various retail channels [67]

Group 1: Financial Performance - For 3Q25E, Meituan is estimated to achieve revenue of RMB97.8 billion, reflecting a 4.6% year-over-year growth, but an adjusted net loss of RMB16.6 billion is expected, which is higher than the consensus of RMB12.6 billion due to intense competition in the food delivery sector [1] - The food delivery business is anticipated to incur an operating loss of RMB20.6 billion in 3Q25E, a significant decline from an operating profit of RMB9 billion in 3Q24, leading to a revised overall operating profit forecast for the core local commerce (CLC) business to -RMB15.5 billion [2] - For 4Q25E, a group-level adjusted net loss of RMB8.3 billion is expected, which is an improvement from 3Q25E but still higher than the consensus loss of RMB5.8 billion [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The impact of incremental investment on operating profit from the food delivery business is believed to have peaked in 3Q25, but the competitive environment's pace of improvement remains a critical factor to monitor [1][2] - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism that industry competition will return to rationality over time, allowing Meituan to maintain its leading position in quality food delivery orders [1] Group 3: New Initiatives and Forecast Revisions - Revenue growth for new initiatives is forecasted at 17.5% year-over-year with an operating loss of RMB2.35 billion in 3Q25E, with strategic transformations expected to reduce losses in Meituan Select in the second half of 2025 [3] - Key changes in forecasts include a 0-4% increase in 2025-2027E revenue estimates due to better-than-expected growth from international expansion, while operating profit forecasts for 2025E and 2026E have been cut to losses of RMB17.2 billion and RMB1.9 billion, respectively, due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [4]

Core Insights - Roblox Corporation is focusing on international expansion, particularly in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which is the fastest-growing area for the company in Q2 2025 [1] - The platform's global daily active users (DAUs) increased by 41% year over year to 111.8 million, with APAC DAUs rising by 76% [2][9] - Bookings in the APAC region grew by 75% year over year, driven by significant increases in Indonesia (up 150%), Korea (up 120%), and India (up 90%) [2][9] - Management attributes this growth to targeted investments in server capacity and translation tools, enhancing user experience and product quality [3] - Engagement hours among users over 13 increased by 72% globally, indicating higher monetization among older users [3] Strategic Goals - Roblox aims to capture 10% of the $180 billion global gaming content market, with APAC expansion serving as a structural catalyst for growth [4] - Sustained momentum in high-growth markets allows the company to diversify its user base, deepen engagement, and scale monetization beyond core geographies [4] Industry Trends - Industry peers are also pursuing region-focused strategies for growth outside traditional markets [5] - Unity Software Inc. is leveraging its infrastructure and localization capabilities in China, the largest gaming market, to drive global monetization [6] - Electronic Arts Inc. is enhancing regional efficiency by unifying Southeast Asia under a single SKU, which allows for hyper-localized content delivery [7] - These strategies highlight a broader industry trend where international growth is becoming central to the interactive entertainment landscape [8]

Core Thesis - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) presents a compelling investment case despite a modest 20x PE valuation and 5% free cash flow yield, indicating a mature and fundamentally sound business rather than a "hidden gem" [2] - The stock has underperformed this year, down 8% YTD, compared to peers like Tencent, which is up 24%, primarily due to investor concerns over margin pressure from ongoing investments in Asia and Europe [2] Growth Potential - TCOM is a dominant brand in China, well-positioned in an oversupplied hotel market, with high-quality products and services, and resilient post-COVID fundamentals [2] - The underpenetrated travel market in China, where hundreds of millions have yet to fly, offers significant long-term growth upside [2] International Expansion - TCOM's international expansion leverages proprietary Chinese app and algorithm technology, mobilizing 700 million Chinese MAUs to attract partnerships from hotels and transport providers abroad, providing a competitive edge over peers like Meituan [3] - Key catalysts expected in the second half of 2025 include better-than-anticipated margin performance, increased capital returns following the MMYT stake sale, dividends, and potential buybacks [3] Financial Metrics - Revenue growth and margin expansion since 2019 are comparable to Booking, with TCOM trading at 20x PE versus Booking at 30x PE [4] - Upside scenarios include 15% top-line growth, margin expansion to 35%, and multiple expansion, potentially tripling returns over five years [4] - Base-case projections maintain margins and multiples, offering 2x returns, while downside risks include competitive pressures and missed catalysts causing a 25% decline [4] Recent Performance - The stock price has appreciated approximately 27% since previous coverage, reflecting the successful execution of the bullish thesis [6] - The current perspective emphasizes margin resilience, capital returns, and growth in Chinese outbound travel as key catalysts for future performance [6]

Core Thesis - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. is experiencing a significant stock decline, with a 30% drop following Q2 2025 earnings, raising concerns about its growth trajectory [2] - The company is transitioning from one-off sexual health prescriptions to premium daily-use subscriptions, which is expected to temporarily impact growth but enhance customer retention and lifetime value by 2026 [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased sequentially for the first time, from $586 million in Q1 to $545 million in Q2, primarily due to weakness in weight loss and a strategic shift in sexual health [2] - Core revenue remained flat at $355 million, while weight loss revenue fell from $230 million to $190 million, attributed to availability challenges with compounded GLP-1s [2] Future Guidance - Guidance for 2025 is projected at $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, with approximately 15% of revenue exposed to GLP-1 regulation risk [3] - Even in a downside scenario where GLP-1 compounds are eliminated, the base business could still grow at 20% annually, potentially reaching $5 billion by 2030 [3] Revenue Expansion Potential - Hims is diversifying into new categories such as menopause, TRT, lab testing, and AI-enabled care, with potential revenue contributions estimated between $650 million and $1.6 billion by 2030 [3] - This diversification could elevate total revenue to between $5.6 billion and $6.6 billion, supporting management's target of $6.5 billion [3] Valuation Insights - Valuation scenarios indicate potential net income of $600 million to $780 million by 2030, translating to a market cap of $15 billion to $19.5 billion, representing a 1.5x to 2x upside from current levels [4] - Short-term volatility is expected due to GLP-1 and sexual health transitions, but long-term growth relies on successful execution in new verticals and international expansion opportunities [4] Hedge Fund Interest - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 41 hedge fund portfolios holding HIMS at the end of Q1, up from 38 in the previous quarter [6]