7月8日，南下资金净买入港股3.87亿港元。 其中：净买入阿里巴巴-W 14.11亿港元、美团-W 7.17亿港元、建设银行3.94亿港元、协鑫科技2.34亿港元、国泰君安国际1.94亿港元、快手-W 1.61亿港元； 净卖出盈富基金9.8亿港元、腾讯控股6.21亿港元、恒生中国企业5.44亿港元、小米集团-W 4.29亿港元、泡泡玛特2.69亿港元。 | | U TIX MIL | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | | 国泰君安国际 | 28.5% | 0.27 | 100.24亿 | 国泰君安国际 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 1.5% | 8.55 | 29.54亿 | 阿里巴巴-W | | 美团-W | 2.7% | 9.23 | 26.35亿 | 腾讯控股 | | 小米集团-W | 2.4% | -4.05 | 21.28亿 | 中心国际 | | 腾讯控股 | 0.5% | -4.11 | 18.66 Z | 小米集团-W | | 协鑫科技 | 10.8% | 3.08 | 16.28亿 | 美 ...

Core Insights - Meituan's withdrawal from community group buying has led to a surge in interest for Pinduoduo's "Duoduo Maicai" as the dominant player in the market [1][5] - Pinduoduo is rapidly expanding its operations to absorb the demand left by Meituan, with a significant increase in daily sales and recruitment of staff [4][8] - The community group buying sector has seen a decline in competition, with only Pinduoduo remaining as a national platform, allowing it to consolidate resources and adjust its business strategy [5][10] Company Developments - Meituan has suspended services in multiple provinces, focusing on instant retail, which has disrupted suppliers and led to chaos in inventory management [1][4] - Pinduoduo has reported a 50% increase in daily sales volume and is actively recruiting workers with salaries exceeding 10,000 yuan in various regions [4][8] - The company is offering incentives to attract former Meituan suppliers and is adjusting commission rates for team leaders to enhance recruitment [5][8] Market Dynamics - The community group buying market has experienced a significant contraction, with major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com scaling back operations [5][10] - Pinduoduo is leveraging the exit of competitors to strengthen its market position, with plans to enhance logistics and reduce costs [7][10] - The shift in focus from community group buying to instant retail may lead to increased competition among major e-commerce platforms, including Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba [10][11] Challenges and Concerns - Despite the growth opportunities, some suppliers are hesitant to transition to Pinduoduo due to concerns over its low-price model and the potential for reduced product quality [9][12] - The community group buying model faces inherent challenges, including low margins and high operational costs, which may limit long-term sustainability [9][12] - Pinduoduo must find a balance between community self-pickup and instant delivery models to maximize efficiency and profitability [12]

美团调整社区团购业务一周后，多多买菜的订单量迎来暴涨。7月2日，据北京商报记者多方了解，多多买菜部分大仓和末端订单飙升，仓库正开出上万元薪 资急招分拣员和司机。与此同时，团长和供应商也在适应行业余震。 曾经的"百团大战"如今只剩拼多多一家巨头，而美团选择与京东、淘天扎堆较劲即时零售半小时达。社区团购的预售自提模式还能走多远？ 订单量猛增 当竞争对手改变了策略，多多买菜最终熬成社区团购赛道里仅剩的头号玩家，不少用户开始转移到多多买菜平台下单。王国庆（化名）在四川省阿坝州一个 小县城做了四年团长，他经营着两个上百人的微信群。"平日多多买菜的订单量都小于50单/天，最近几天订单量增长超过100单/天了。" 与此同时，部分城市多多买菜的大仓也出现了爆仓的情形。一位管理多多买菜仓库的人员向北京商报记者透露，目前大仓正在招聘码货缠膜工人、分拣员和 暑期工。据他讲述，平时大仓一个分拣员每天会分拣2000—3000件左右，但由于仓内订单太多，当前分拣员的分拣量能达到5000—6000件/天，月薪为8000 —1万元。为了确保尽快将货发至网格仓，员工得从下午4点一直工作到次日凌晨3点。 这些订单压力同样传导至网格仓。在广西，一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent shutdown of Meituan Youxuan and the exit of major internet companies from the "community group buying" sector highlight the challenges and declining viability of this business model, particularly in the context of changing consumer behavior and regulatory pressures [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Community group buying, characterized by local leaders organizing purchases for neighbors, saw rapid growth during the pandemic but has faced significant challenges, including high management difficulty for fresh produce and low loyalty among group leaders [1][4]. - Meituan Youxuan peaked with coverage in over 2,000 counties, primarily in lower-tier cities, but its core user base remains in higher-tier cities, leading to a mismatch in target demographics [2][4]. - The shift in consumer preference towards immediate delivery services, such as Meituan's instant retail, has further diminished the appeal of community group buying, which relies on next-day delivery and self-pickup [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Meituan Youxuan has accumulated losses exceeding 55 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with high operational costs and low gross margins making it difficult to compete with local rivals [6]. - The customer acquisition cost for Meituan Youxuan was approximately 150 yuan per person in 2020, significantly higher than the 5-7 yuan for its competitor, Duoduo Maicai, indicating inefficiencies in its business model [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Following the decision to shut down Meituan Youxuan, the company is redirecting its focus towards its supermarket business, Xiaoxiang Supermarket, and its restaurant supply chain platform, Meituan Kuilv [8]. - The transition involves reallocating resources and personnel from Meituan Youxuan to support the growth of Xiaoxiang Supermarket, which is set to open new offline community stores in cities with proven consumer purchasing power [8].

中芯国际(00981)获净买入7.14亿港元。消息面上，美国近期计划撤销半导体豁免政策。东方证券指出， 台积电、三星电子和SK海力士等半导体制造商在中国大陆的工厂在其全球供应链中具有重要地位。这 些工厂同时具有中国大陆的市场、政策、资源和人才等成本优势，及母公司的技术和设备优势。若豁免 权取消，其相较本土晶圆厂竞争设备和技术优势将受削弱，利好本土晶圆厂。 智通财经APP获悉，6月30日港股市场，北水成交净买入52.2亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入23.93亿 港元，港股通(深)成交净买入28.26亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是建设银行(00939)、中芯国际(00981)、美团-W(03690)。北水净卖出最多的个股 是阿里巴巴-W(09988)、中国银行(03988)、腾讯(00700)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 杀卖出额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 国泰君安 ... | | | 67.05亿 | | HK 01788 | 33.38亿 | 33.66亿 | -2757.79万 | | 小米集团-W | 29.68 乙 | ...

Core Insights - The community group buying model, once favored by capital, is facing decline as major players withdraw from the market, leading to speculation about its sustainability and the rise of instant retail as a new battleground [1][3][4] - Instant retail is emerging as a response to consumer demand for immediacy, with major companies like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba investing heavily to capture a share of this trillion-yuan market [1][6][11] Community Group Buying - Community group buying combines online ordering with offline pickup, aiming to reduce costs by eliminating intermediaries and lowering logistics expenses [2] - The model saw massive capital influx starting in late 2020, with companies like Meituan and Pinduoduo offering substantial subsidies to attract users, leading to unsustainable growth [2][3] - The decline is attributed to overestimation of market potential, underestimation of costs, and low customer loyalty due to reliance on price-sensitive consumers [3][4] Instant Retail - Instant retail focuses on meeting the immediate needs of consumers, offering delivery within 30 minutes, and is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [6][11] - Major players are establishing clear strategies in instant retail, with Meituan leading the market, followed by Alibaba and JD, all leveraging their logistics and supply chain strengths [6][7][9] - Instant retail addresses real consumer demand for speed and convenience, particularly in fresh produce and daily necessities [6][11] Challenges and Opportunities - Instant retail faces challenges such as high delivery costs and low profit margins, similar to community group buying, with intense competition leading to price wars [8][10] - The market is expected to consolidate, with smaller retailers struggling to survive, while larger chains may expand through acquisitions [9][10] - To thrive, instant retail platforms must focus on optimizing supply chains, enhancing service quality, and shifting towards higher-priced offerings to improve margins [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the instant retail sector is intensifying, with a clash between light and heavy asset models, focusing on balancing costs and profits [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Instant retail is gaining momentum, with major players like JD, Taobao, Meituan, and Pinduoduo entering the space [2][3]. - Meituan is scaling back its operations in 18 provinces, focusing resources on its Xiaoxiang supermarket and flash purchase business [2]. - Pinduoduo's Duoduo Grocery is testing self-built warehouses in first-tier cities, aiming to launch instant delivery services by August [2][4]. Group 2: Business Models - The light asset model, exemplified by community group buying, is currently outperforming heavier models [4]. - Pinduoduo's Duoduo Grocery has achieved a market share of approximately 200 billion yuan, surpassing Meituan's 100-120 billion yuan [4][5]. - Pinduoduo operates on a platform model, relying on merchant commissions and marketing revenue, minimizing its own logistics costs [5][6]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Pinduoduo plans to combine the cost advantages of community group buying with the timeliness of instant retail, creating a unique model [7]. - JD's instant delivery uses a front warehouse model for quick delivery, while Meituan invests heavily in supply chain management [8][9]. - Meituan's Xiaoxiang supermarket is expanding its presence in 20 cities, focusing on direct sourcing and supply chain enhancement [8][9]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - Both light and heavy asset models face challenges in profitability and operational efficiency [10][12]. - The complexity of cost structures in instant retail requires effective resource allocation and control [12]. - Quality control and after-sales service are critical issues for both models, impacting brand reputation and customer satisfaction [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Companies must innovate and optimize their business models to thrive in the competitive instant retail landscape [13].

转自：中国质量报 □ 本报记者 胡立彪 实习记者 刘松瑶 即时零售"战火"越烧越旺。继京东、阿里等布局即时零售"作战图"后，6月23日，美团宣布，全面拓展 即时零售，推动零售业态提质升级，具体包括拓展闪购品类、扩张小象超市、调整升级美团优选等。 据了解，即时零售是以即时配送体系为基础的高时效性到家消费业态，这一模式聚焦"本地商品"，契合 当前流通基础设施和居民消费需求，其核心特征为线上订单线下30分钟内送达，让"等快递"变为"享闪 购"。 据网经社电子商务研究中心特约研究员郭涛介绍，中国零售业发展经历了传统零售、快递电商、即时零 售阶段。传统零售解决了商品的集中流通问题，快递电商解决了零售货架的线上化问题。传统零售和快 递电商均属于中心化零售，而即时零售是一种数字化的分布式供给，有助于实现零售效率提升、服务时 效升级，以及供给（仓网）升级。 郭涛表示，美团聚焦即时零售，意味着企业将把战略重心向"半小时达"场景倾斜，意图通过整合"本地 商品"零售供给与即时配送能力，构建"万物到家"生态。此举旨在抢占消费升级红利，将外卖模式延伸 至全品类零售，满足消费者对时效性的极致需求。如今，电商行业正向"近场零售"趋势演进， ...

聚焦优势资源打决胜战役 作者 丨瀚星 你最近一次网购30卷纸巾、10支牙膏、5箱啤酒是在什么时候？ 囤货，正成为离我们越来越远的古早购物模式。 过去十余年，电商大促培养出"非折扣不买"的消费习惯，不少用户会刻意延迟刚需采购，等待促销 节点集中囤货。 但随着用户购物习惯的演变，越来越多的即时性消费正在回归。 知名市场监测和数据分析公司尼尔森IQ发布的《2024年度网络购物者调研》显示，选择"随时立刻补 货、不等折扣"的消费者占比达到29%，较上一年增长9%。小型家庭结构的消费者采购模式，由一次 性大额采购、囤货，逐渐转向按需补货，即避免浪费、购买适量的小包装、随时立刻补货的模式。 占据即时零售市场最大份额的美团，对消费趋势的变化有着清晰的认知。 6月23日，美团宣布：将全面拓展即时零售，推动零售新业态的提质升级，主要有四项措施，包括： 全面拓展即时零售品牌闪购的品类，加码自营生鲜食杂配送业务小象超市，社区团购业务美团优选 转型升级，以及积极拓展海外市场。 这四个动作本质上是一回事：美团要聚焦优势资源打决胜战役。 毕竟，相比于外卖的存量竞争，在即时零售上的主动进攻才是决胜局的关键。 美团闪购和小象超市是此次美团战 ...

一、美国经济：预计油价不会导致核心通胀显著加速 美联储主席鲍威尔认为，油价冲击不会对通胀产生持久影响，这与我们美国经济团队在 2023 年 9 月（在供应驱动的油价上涨后）进行的定量 分析一致。我们团队的研究表明，油价上涨 10% 通常只会对核心价格产生温和推动 —— 三个月内仅上涨 5 个基点。他们的模型显示， headline 价格的反应更大 —— 冲击后三个月上涨 5 个基点 —— 因为大部分影响是通过 CPI 的能源成分传导的。重要的是，他们的模型假设油 价会持续上涨 —— 这意味着油价回落对通胀的影响甚至更小。 图表 1：供应驱动的油价冲击后，美国核心 CPI 通常几乎不变 5 月自由流动性有所改善，但仍为负值，原因是 M1（狭义货币供应量）强劲增长、PPI（生产者价格指数）通缩加剧以及工业增加值（IP）增 长稳定。 鉴于大摩预计 2025 年剩余时间通缩压力将持续，且政策立场偏被动应对，预计 2025 年自由流动性将保持负值。 图表 1：摩根士丹利中国自由流动性指标与 MSCI 中国同比百分比 ——5 月自由流动性改善，但仍处于负值区间 10% 石油供应冲击的累计 CPI 影响 二、中国自由流动性 ...