Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in adjusted profit for Q2 2025, with adjusted profit down 89% year-on-year, reflecting challenges in profitability amidst increased competition and operational costs [1][3] - Core local business remains the primary revenue source, with revenue of 653.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but operating profit decreased by 75.6% [2][3] - New business revenue grew by 22.8% year-on-year to 264.9 billion yuan, but the operating loss was 18.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 918.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but operating profit was only 2.3 billion yuan, down 98% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year, highlighting pressure on profitability [1][3] - The core local business's operating profit margin was 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points, indicating a significant decline in profitability [2] Business Segments - The delivery service segment saw revenue of 237 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.8%, while the commission and online marketing segments grew by 12.9% and 10.5%, respectively [2] - The takeout business is expected to see double-digit growth in order volume, but average order value (AOV) is projected to decline slightly, leading to low single-digit revenue growth [2] - The company plans to exit underperforming areas in its new business and focus on expanding its core regions, particularly through the small elephant supermarket initiative [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant losses in the core local business in Q3 2025 due to intensified competition and increased strategic investments [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected losses of 77 billion yuan in 2025, followed by profits of 318 billion yuan and 466 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4] - The company maintains a medium-term rating of "outperform" against the market, while closely monitoring competitive dynamics in the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in adjusted net profit and gross margin due to intense competition in the instant retail sector, while new business revenues continue to grow but are impacted by overseas expansion losses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.1% [1] - The gross margin was 33.1%, down from 41.2% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decrease of 89.0% [1][2] - The adjusted profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][2] Business Segments - Core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-over-year, with delivery revenue at 23.66 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-over-year) and commission revenue at 24.95 billion yuan (up 12.9% year-over-year) [1] - New business revenue was 26.49 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.8%, but incurred a loss of 1.88 billion yuan due to overseas expansion [1][3] Competitive Landscape - Intense competition in instant retail is squeezing the company's profits, with significant increases in delivery subsidies, rider costs, and user subsidies [2] - The company’s operating profit is under pressure due to the competitive landscape, which is influenced by competitors' strategies [2] Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its new business segments, with strong growth in instant retail and plans for further expansion in both domestic and international markets [3] - The company has established over 50,000 flash warehouses nationwide and is exploring new delivery models [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 374 billion, 427.7 billion, and 489.5 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of -10.2 billion, 15.8 billion, and 38.5 billion yuan [3] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 712.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 127.93 HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. However, the gross margin decreased to 33.1% from 41.2% in the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, down 89.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The intense competition in instant retail is suppressing profits, and the recovery of profitability in the short term needs to be observed in terms of competitive dynamics and new business developments [1][4] - The core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 22.8% to 26.49 billion yuan, driven by grocery retail and overseas expansion [1][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 337.59 billion yuan, 373.99 billion yuan, 427.68 billion yuan, and 489.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 10.8%, 14.4%, and 14.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 43.77 billion yuan, -10.21 billion yuan, 15.78 billion yuan, and 38.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, -123.3%, 254.6%, and 144.3% [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 127.93 HKD, with the current price at 96.55 HKD, indicating a potential upside [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

2025Q2 盈利能力承压走低。2025Q2，毛利率同比-8.1pct，系骑手补贴增 加及海外业务扩张所致；销售/研发/管理费率各+6.5/+0.3/-0.4pct， 竞争加剧推广投放增加；经调整净利润率 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 预计第三季度核心本地商业会出现较大规模亏损。考虑到当下竞争加剧现 状，公司持续加大战略性投入，公司核心本地商业业务在第三季度仍将 出现较大规模亏损。一方面，公司会增加激励以确保价格竞争力与行业 领先的配送服务，其次会加大营销投入以强化品牌认知。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 补贴加大拖累经营表现，持续跟踪竞争格局变化 2025Q2经调整溢利同降89%。2025Q2，公司实现收入918.4亿元，同比+11.7%； 经营溢利 2.3 亿元，同比-98.0%，经营利润率为 0.2%，同比-13.4pct；经调 整溢利为 14.9 亿元，同比-89.0%，经调整净利率为 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 到店业务系核心本地商业的主要盈利来源。2025Q2，核心本地商业收入 653.5 亿元/+7.7%，其中配送服务/佣金/在线营销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, with a target price adjusted to HKD 120, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 102.7 [4][7][20]. Core Views - The report highlights that Meituan's revenue for Q2 2025 grew by 11.7% year-on-year to RMB 91.8 billion, which was below market expectations by 2.0%. The gross margin decreased by 8.1 percentage points to 33.1% due to increased rider subsidies and overseas business costs [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the food delivery industry remains intense, with expectations of increased losses in Q3 2025. The core local business revenue grew by 7.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than market expectations, and operating profit dropped by 76% to RMB 3.7 billion [3]. - Meituan is focusing on enhancing its user experience (UE) and operational efficiency, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position despite the ongoing market challenges. The report anticipates that losses will improve in Q4 2025 as industry subsidies decrease [3][4]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the report projects revenue of RMB 368.1 billion and a net profit loss of RMB 12.8 billion. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB -7.2 billion, with a significant recovery anticipated in FY26E [6][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a revenue increase to RMB 469.7 billion by FY27E, with a gradual recovery in operating profit and net profit margins over the forecast period [6][11]. Business Strategy - Meituan is strategically shifting its focus from underperforming segments like Meituan Youxuan to other new retail businesses, while also expanding its international presence through Keeta, which has shown strong growth in order volume and transaction value [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining competitive pricing and high-quality product offerings to cater to diverse consumer needs, which is crucial for sustaining market share in a highly competitive environment [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of Meituan, particularly in the food delivery sector, highlighting the company's financial performance and strategic adjustments in response to intense competition [2][6][20]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Meituan reported revenue of 918 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The core local commerce segment saw revenue growth of 7.7% to 653 billion RMB, but operating profit plummeted by 75.6% to 37 billion RMB, with a significant decline in operating profit margin [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 2.78 billion RMB, reflecting an 81.5% year-on-year decrease, indicating substantial pressure on profitability due to increased competition and costs [3][8]. Competitive Landscape - The article emphasizes the impact of subsidy wars on Meituan's performance, noting that while user engagement increased, the average order value (AOV) declined, leading to a mismatch between revenue growth and order volume [7][8]. - Meituan's management has expressed a commitment to focusing on fundamental aspects of the business, such as supply, delivery service, and pricing, to navigate the competitive environment effectively [6][20]. Strategic Adjustments - Meituan has restructured its new business segments, particularly by exiting poorly performing areas in its grocery retail division and concentrating resources on the more promising Xiaoxiang Supermarket [4][18]. - The new business segment reported a revenue increase of 22.8% year-on-year, driven by the expansion of Xiaoxiang Supermarket and overseas operations, although it still faced significant operating losses [5][18]. Long-term Vision - Meituan's management has reiterated its long-term growth strategy, aiming for sustainable profitability rather than short-term gains through unsustainable subsidies. The focus is on enhancing operational efficiency and building a robust ecosystem [9][20]. - The company has set ambitious goals for its overseas business, Keeta, aiming for an annual GMV of 100 billion USD by 2033, indicating a strong commitment to international expansion [19]. Innovations and New Initiatives - Meituan is actively pursuing supply-side innovations, such as the "Raccoon Canteen" model, which aims to streamline operations for merchants and improve service quality [11]. - The company is also expanding its instant retail business, Meituan Flash Purchase, which has seen significant growth and is positioned to compete with traditional e-commerce platforms [14][20].

Core Insights - The second quarter marked the true beginning of the "takeout war," with Meituan's performance under scrutiny amid fierce competition [1] - Meituan's revenue reached 91.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but the core local business segment saw a significant decline in operating profit [2][3] - The company is focusing on long-term growth strategies despite short-term pressures from competition and increased costs [5][18] Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter was 91.84 billion RMB, up 11.7% from the previous year [2] - Operating profit dropped by 98% to 226.35 million RMB, with a significant decline in profit margins [2] - Sales costs increased by 27% to 61.4 billion RMB, driven by higher rider subsidies and marketing expenses [7] Business Adjustments - Meituan has restructured its new business segments, focusing resources on the more promising "Xiaoxiang Supermarket" and reducing losses from the poorly performing "Meituan Youxuan" [3][4] - The new business segment's revenue grew by 22.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of Xiaoxiang Supermarket and overseas operations [4] Competitive Landscape - The intense competition has led to a surge in user engagement, with monthly active users surpassing 500 million and daily order volumes reaching a record high of 150 million [5][12] - Despite the increase in order volume, the average order value (AOV) has declined, indicating a mismatch between demand stimulation and revenue generation [6] Strategic Focus - Meituan's management emphasizes a return to fundamental business principles: supply, delivery service, and pricing [5][18] - The company is committed to sustainable investments that enhance long-term capabilities rather than engaging in unsustainable spending [8][17] Innovations and Future Plans - Meituan is expanding its "Brand Satellite Store" initiative, aiming to open over 10,000 stores by the end of the year [8] - The "Raccoon Canteen" model is being developed to streamline operations for merchants, with a target of 1,200 locations in three years [11] - The company aims to achieve a daily order volume of 1 billion by 2025, with a profit target of 1 RMB per order [12][17]

Core Viewpoint - Community group buying has been recognized as a significant failure in the internet industry, with major players incurring substantial losses and ultimately leading to a rapid decline in the sector's viability [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The community group buying sector experienced explosive growth in 2020, followed by a swift decline, with major companies like Meituan and Pinduoduo reporting cumulative losses exceeding 80 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [1][3]. - Major players such as Meituan, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and Didi invested heavily in community group buying, with Alibaba's Taocai Cai reportedly spending at least 20 billion yuan to secure a top market position [4][3]. - The community group buying model was initially seen as a cost-effective alternative to traditional retail, with lower prices and reduced delivery costs compared to other models like front warehouses [6][8]. Group 2: Business Model Analysis - Community group buying utilized a "next-day delivery + self-pickup" model, significantly reducing operational costs compared to traditional delivery methods [6][4]. - The model aimed to streamline supply chains by minimizing intermediaries, reducing markup rates from 45% to below 20% [8]. - Despite its initial promise, the community group buying sector faced challenges such as high operational costs, limited profit margins, and regulatory scrutiny, leading to a decline in market viability [10][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - By mid-2022, Pinduoduo and Meituan held a combined market share of 76%, but both companies shifted focus towards reducing losses rather than aggressive competition [12][14]. - The community group buying sector's struggles were exacerbated by the rise of instant retail, which offered a more efficient and profitable alternative, leading to questions about the future viability of community group buying [22][24]. - Instant retail's market size reached 650 billion yuan in 2023, significantly overshadowing community group buying, which faced increasing competition from established players like JD and Alibaba [22][24].

Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 91.8 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly below market expectations by 1% and 2% [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 89% to 1.5 billion RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.6% [1] - Core business adjusted operating profit fell by 76% to 3.7 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 5.7%, down 19 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to irrational competition in the industry [1] Business Performance - Core business revenue growth lagged behind order volume growth, attributed to intensified industry competition and increased user subsidies to enhance price competitiveness and ensure delivery efficiency [1] - Estimated year-on-year growth in takeaway order volume is approximately 10%, with a significant decline in Average Order Value (AOV) [1] - The in-store travel and accommodation Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, but revenue growth was slower than GTV due to changes in category structure and market penetration [1] New Business Developments - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation in its new business segment, exiting loss-making areas [1] - The "Xiaoxiang Supermarket" is experiencing strong growth and plans to accelerate expansion into first- and second-tier cities [1] - Keeta's order volume and GTV are rapidly increasing, with coverage in 20 cities in Saudi Arabia as of the end of July [1] Future Outlook - Increased takeaway subsidies are expected to impact performance in the coming quarters, with a forecast of core business turning to losses in Q3 [2] - Q3 takeaway competition is expected to intensify, with projected daily order volume growth of 16% year-on-year, but a potential revenue decline of 6% due to subsidies and strategic adjustments [2] - New business revenue is expected to grow by 18% year-on-year, with anticipated losses of approximately 2.3 billion RMB [2] Valuation and Market Position - The company maintains a leading market position, with a high probability of sustaining market share despite short-term profit adjustments [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 147 HKD, with a maintained buy rating based on long-term projections for takeaway and in-store business profits [2]