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【广发金工】当前宏观、技术视角均看多权益资产:大类资产配置分析月报(2025年8月)
广发金融工程研究· 2025-09-03 03:34
Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].