Core Viewpoint - Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank is facing cyclical challenges in the banking industry but is strategically optimizing its structure and operations to ensure sustainable growth despite external pressures [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 2025, Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank reported total assets of 616.51 billion yuan, total liabilities of 565.82 billion yuan, and total equity of 50.69 billion yuan, with a profit of 4.92 billion yuan [1]. - The bank anticipates a revenue reduction of approximately 300 million yuan due to tightening VAT policies and a further 500 million yuan from the proactive reduction of non-standard asset scale [1]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The bank is experiencing a significant "scissors difference" where the loan interest rate has decreased by 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the deposit interest rate has only decreased by 0.35 percentage points, leading to a narrowing interest margin [1]. - Loan interest income has decreased by 11.38% year-on-year, while deposit interest expenses have decreased by 7.96%, resulting in a revenue reduction of approximately 700 million yuan from loans [1]. Strategic Initiatives - Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank is focusing on small and micro finance and optimizing its deposit structure as part of a dual strategy for growth [2]. - The bank has established a dedicated small micro-loan division, with over 2.5 billion yuan in loans issued and interest income exceeding 60 million yuan [2]. Deposit Management - The bank is implementing a "limited + pricing" strategy to manage deposit costs, controlling the issuance of long-term deposits and reducing interest rates for various deposit products [3]. - As of the third quarter, the conversion rate of savings deposits has reached 42%, with a significant decrease in the proportion of long-term deposits [3]. Non-Interest Income Growth - Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank is expanding its non-interest income through bond asset allocation and derivative products, achieving a 35% year-on-year increase in trading gains [3]. - The bank's derivative business has seen a remarkable growth of 78% year-on-year, particularly in interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives [3]. Financial Leasing Business - The bank's subsidiary, Jiangnan Financial Leasing Co., has a leasing asset scale of 35.9 billion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 2.1 billion yuan, and has achieved over 18% growth in both revenue and net profit [4]. - This leasing business is becoming a stable anchor and growth engine for the group's overall performance [4]. Future Outlook - The bank is gradually building a diversified income system through small micro finance, liability management, innovative funding operations, and subsidiary collaboration, positioning itself for a robust future [4].

Macro and Technical Perspectives on Asset Allocation - The macro perspective indicates a bearish outlook on equity assets, while the technical perspective shows an upward trend with moderate valuation and a state of capital outflow [1][5][20] - For bonds, the macro perspective is bullish, but the technical perspective indicates a downward trend [1][5][20] - Industrial products are viewed negatively from a macro perspective, with a downward price trend also noted technically [1][5][20] - Gold assets are favored in the macro view, with a technical upward price trend [1][5][20] Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio + macro indicators + technical indicators combination yielded a return of 10.51% in 2025, with an annualized return of 12.05% since April 2006 [2][21] - The volatility-controlled + macro indicators + technical indicators combination achieved a return of 15.69%, while the risk parity + macro indicators + technical indicators combination returned 6.99% [2][30] Asset Class Analysis - Equity assets are currently under pressure from macro indicators, while technical indicators suggest an upward trend but with capital outflow [20][21] - Bond assets are supported by macro indicators, but technical indicators show a downward trend [20][21] - Industrial products face macro headwinds and technical downward trends [20][21] - Gold assets benefit from favorable macro indicators and an upward technical trend [20][21] Valuation and Capital Flow Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is at 53.94%, indicating a moderate valuation level [13][14] - The latest capital flow indicator for equity assets shows a net outflow of 316 billion, reflecting a capital outflow state [16][17] Summary of Asset Class Scores - The overall scores for asset classes based on macro and technical indicators show equities at 1, bonds at 3, industrial products at -2, and gold at 2 [19][20] - The combined analysis suggests a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while bonds and gold are viewed positively [20][21]

Group 1: Market Observations - The resumption of government bond trading is linked to a reasonable short-term yield level, with the current 10-year bond yield at approximately 1.8423%, up from a low of 1.5958% earlier this year[11] - The central bank's actions in the bond market may indicate a shift in liquidity management, particularly if the scale of re-lending decreases during bond purchases[12] - A significant increase in bank holdings of government bonds during the central bank's bond purchases could positively impact total liquidity, including M1 and non-bank deposits[13] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low, as current policies are aimed at managing production credit rather than increasing bank lending capacity[23] - The probability of lowering policy interest rates in the short term is also low, as this could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets, potentially increasing systemic risk[26] - There is a possibility of a reduction in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which could help lower household debt costs and stabilize housing prices[26] Group 3: Capital Market Implications - The strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown, with liquidity support from the central bank creating a floor for equity prices[27] - The resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the bond market may still face pressure if economic conditions improve[27] - Historical trends suggest that a dual bull market in stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity support from the central bank, with current deposit shifts likely to influence asset prices rapidly[28]

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing new highs, leading to increased interest in multi-asset allocation, particularly in bonds as a long-term investment option that can withstand market cycles [1] Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The recent correction in the bond market has improved the valuation attractiveness, presenting a potential opportunity for investment [1] - Galaxy Leading Bond A (519669) has achieved positive returns for nearly 12 consecutive years, with an annualized return exceeding its performance benchmark, highlighting its long-term investment value [1] - The fund's asset allocation strategy is diversified, including government bonds, financial bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and convertible bonds, balancing risk and return through macro analysis and individual bond selection [1] Group 2: Convertible Bonds Strategy - The unique value of the convertible bond market lies in its dual characteristics: it can exhibit equity-like behavior in a rising stock market and provide bond-like returns during market fluctuations [1] - The fund manager employs a quantitative model to select convertible bonds, ensuring quality and reasonable valuation while maintaining liquidity in the pure bond portion [2] - A four-tier defense system is established for risk control, including overall risk exposure management, cross-market risk awareness, internal diversification within the convertible bond portfolio, and adherence to disciplined investment processes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the AI Fund Donghai Qiyuan Tianyi 6-Month Holding Mixed Initiated A (023244) reported a profit of 273,700 yuan in the second quarter of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0269 yuan [3] - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 2.73%, and as of the end of the second quarter, the fund size was 10.5 million yuan [3] - As of July 21, the unit net value was 1.023 yuan, with the fund manager being Xing Ye and Qu Miao, who currently manage five funds [3] Group 2 - The fund's investment strategy focuses on timely allocation of bond assets, selective allocation and trading of convertible bonds and equity assets, aiming to create long-term stable returns for investors [4] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Shandong Expressway, Anhui Expressway, Ninghu Expressway, Guangdong Expressway A, Newao Co., Ltd., Shougang Environmental Protection, Beidahuang, Yangtze Power, Sinopec, and China Unicom [4]