2026年，不是下一个周期的简单延续，而是一场系统性重构的起点。 在11月18日万得3C会议线上路演中，华泰证券研究所所长张继强以" 新开局下的叙事与主线" 为主题，系统梳理了未来三年宏观经济、政策逻辑与资产定 价的核心变局。这场深度分享，没有碎片化观点，没有短期情绪煽动，而是以严谨的框架、清晰的逻辑，为机构投资者勾勒出一幅"从宏观到配置"的全景 地图。 一、宏观叙事：从"稳增长"到"高质量发展"的范式迁移 张继强指出，过去十年，"稳增长"是政策主轴，货币与财政协同发力，核心目标是保就业、稳地产、托经济。但2024年之后，这一叙事正在被彻底改写。 新范式的核心特征： 财政主导、货币配合： 财政发力从"大水漫灌"转向"精准滴灌"，专项债、特别国债聚焦科技、绿色、民生三大领域； "我们不再问'经济会不会失速'，而要问'高质量增长的韧性在哪里'。"——张继强 这意味着，传统依赖地产链、基建链的资产逻辑将系统性弱化，而真正具备技术壁垒、全球竞争力、政策支持的产业，将获得持续的估值溢价。 二、产业主线：三大结构性机会，定义2026的资产配置坐标 在新叙事下，张继强提炼出未来三年最具确定性的三条产业主线： 1. 高端制造 ...

Macro and Technical Perspectives on Asset Allocation - The macro perspective indicates a bearish outlook on equity assets, while the technical perspective shows an upward trend with moderate valuation and a state of capital outflow [1][5][20] - For bonds, the macro perspective is bullish, but the technical perspective indicates a downward trend [1][5][20] - Industrial products are viewed negatively from a macro perspective, with a downward price trend also noted technically [1][5][20] - Gold assets are favored in the macro view, with a technical upward price trend [1][5][20] Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio + macro indicators + technical indicators combination yielded a return of 10.51% in 2025, with an annualized return of 12.05% since April 2006 [2][21] - The volatility-controlled + macro indicators + technical indicators combination achieved a return of 15.69%, while the risk parity + macro indicators + technical indicators combination returned 6.99% [2][30] Asset Class Analysis - Equity assets are currently under pressure from macro indicators, while technical indicators suggest an upward trend but with capital outflow [20][21] - Bond assets are supported by macro indicators, but technical indicators show a downward trend [20][21] - Industrial products face macro headwinds and technical downward trends [20][21] - Gold assets benefit from favorable macro indicators and an upward technical trend [20][21] Valuation and Capital Flow Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is at 53.94%, indicating a moderate valuation level [13][14] - The latest capital flow indicator for equity assets shows a net outflow of 316 billion, reflecting a capital outflow state [16][17] Summary of Asset Class Scores - The overall scores for asset classes based on macro and technical indicators show equities at 1, bonds at 3, industrial products at -2, and gold at 2 [19][20] - The combined analysis suggests a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while bonds and gold are viewed positively [20][21]

Group 1: Market Observations - The resumption of government bond trading is linked to a reasonable short-term yield level, with the current 10-year bond yield at approximately 1.8423%, up from a low of 1.5958% earlier this year[11] - The central bank's actions in the bond market may indicate a shift in liquidity management, particularly if the scale of re-lending decreases during bond purchases[12] - A significant increase in bank holdings of government bonds during the central bank's bond purchases could positively impact total liquidity, including M1 and non-bank deposits[13] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low, as current policies are aimed at managing production credit rather than increasing bank lending capacity[23] - The probability of lowering policy interest rates in the short term is also low, as this could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets, potentially increasing systemic risk[26] - There is a possibility of a reduction in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which could help lower household debt costs and stabilize housing prices[26] Group 3: Capital Market Implications - The strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown, with liquidity support from the central bank creating a floor for equity prices[27] - The resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the bond market may still face pressure if economic conditions improve[27] - Historical trends suggest that a dual bull market in stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity support from the central bank, with current deposit shifts likely to influence asset prices rapidly[28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing factors such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policy, stable corporate earnings, and valuation advantages in certain markets [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a rebound due to its low valuation and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Gold - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold's strength remains intact, driven by demand from central banks and investors as a hedge against sovereign debt risks and inflation [5][6]. - Short-term technical pressures may affect gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global uncertainties that bolster safe-haven demand [6][7]. - The gold sector is viewed as a strong investment choice due to multiple converging factors, including concerns over global trade policies and a weakening dollar, which enhances gold's investment appeal [6][7]. Group 3: Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to economic growth during the inflation cycle [7]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is expected to support coal prices, making it a sector worth monitoring [7]. Group 4: Balanced Strategy - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities [8]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of diversifying across global markets to reduce single-market risks while focusing on structural opportunities in equity markets [8][9]. - The proposed allocation includes a core focus on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, with satellite investments in industrial metals like copper and aluminum [9].

0:00 西京研究院院长赵建：今天的强势资产主要是两类：一类是黄金，另一类是权益资产，也就是股票。权 益资产里的强势板块是"科技+资源"，这永远是稀缺的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current market conditions present numerous investment opportunities despite a year of recovery, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation strategies to capture diverse returns while managing volatility risks [2] Group 1: Low-Interest Rate Environment - The low-interest rate environment challenges traditional investment logic, making it difficult to manage risks and achieve stable long-term returns [2] - There is a consensus among investors regarding the attractiveness of equity assets, driven by China's economic resilience and the emergence of companies with sustainable profitability [2] - The focus on companies with core competitiveness remains the optimal solution for achieving excess returns in a liquidity-rich environment [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The current low-risk-free rate necessitates the inclusion of risk assets in investment portfolios to pursue higher returns [3] - Equity assets are viewed as having the best value proposition among risk assets, despite a decrease in attractiveness compared to the previous year [3] - The importance of asset allocation is increasing as market volatility and the difficulty of obtaining returns grow [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Potential investment opportunities include a rebound in dollar assets and continued upward potential for assets represented by the renminbi [6] - Gold is considered a strong tool for hedging portfolio risks due to its low correlation with the dollar, while copper is expected to perform well due to demand from new energy and AI [6] - In a low inflation and ample liquidity environment, a diversified approach involving stocks, bonds, and commodities, particularly gold, is favored [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank deposits in July reflects a trend of residents shifting their savings towards financial products, influenced by the recent bullish stock market and declining interest rates [1][2][5]. Group 1: Non-Bank Deposits - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 0.8 trillion yuan [2]. - From January to July, non-bank deposits cumulatively increased by 4.69 trillion yuan, which is 1.73 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in non-bank deposits is driven by the end of the mid-year bank assessment period and the recent rise in the stock market, leading to a large-scale return of household savings to financial products [2][5]. Group 2: Money Supply and Liquidity - The growth rate of M2 (broad money) in July increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8%, exceeding market expectations of 8.3%, while M1 (narrow money) growth rate rose to 5.6%, marking a significant rebound over three consecutive months [2]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to -3.2% indicates enhanced liquidity, suggesting that households and businesses are converting time deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Expectations - There is a strong market expectation that capital markets will become a significant outlet for household deposits, with historical trends showing that each bull market is accompanied by a migration of bank deposits to capital markets [4][5]. - The estimated maturity of fixed-term deposits is substantial, with approximately 105 trillion yuan maturing by 2025 and 66 trillion yuan thereafter, which could lead to significant liquidity impacts if these funds flow into asset markets [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite recent market optimism, July's financial data indicates slow recovery in demand, with new credit showing a negative growth for the first time in 20 years, highlighting the core contradiction in the current economic environment [7]. - The implementation of fiscal subsidy policies is expected to reduce the need for aggressive monetary easing, with analysts suggesting that the probability of interest rate cuts may decrease due to the effectiveness of targeted fiscal measures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement caused a spike in interest rates for new bonds due to increased holding costs, but this was followed by a reversal as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with initial volatility settling down as investors adjusted to the new information [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium term, but the differentiation between new and old bonds may widen the yield spread, favoring older bonds [2][3]. - Existing bonds are expected to retain structural advantages over newly issued bonds, as investors may prefer older bonds that remain tax-exempt, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of new bonds [2]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Shifts - The tax policy change is likely to lead to a shift in fund allocation, with some funds moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly towards stable dividend-paying stocks and credit bonds [3][4]. - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies, with some focusing on "fixed income plus" products that include convertible bonds, REITs, and equities to compensate for the expected decline in returns from pure bond holdings [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement caused a spike in interest rates for new bonds due to increased holding costs, but this was quickly reversed as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with initial volatility settling down as investors adjusted to the new information [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium term, but the differentiation between new and old bonds may widen the yield spread, favoring older bonds [2][3]. - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies, with a tendency to favor older bonds that retain their tax-exempt status, while new bonds may require higher coupon rates to attract investors [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Flow Dynamics - The tax policy change is expected to lead to a reallocation of funds, with some capital moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly into stable dividend-paying sectors [3]. - There is a potential shift towards credit bonds, especially those with strong credit ratings, as investors seek to optimize returns in light of increased costs associated with new bonds [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - Some investment firms are planning to focus on "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds, REITs, and equities, to compensate for the expected decline in returns from traditional bond holdings [4].