本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国泰海通建议1月超配风险资产】12月30日，国泰海通表示，美联储如期降息并超预期扩表，或阶段 性降低投资者的政策不确定性与市场博弈性。全球权益和大宗商品仍有表现机会，建议1月超配风险资 产。具体配置权重方面，建议权益配置权重为50.00%，债券为35.00%，商品为15.00%。2026年1月权益 配置权重建议为47.50%，其中超配A股、港股（10.00%）、美股（17.50%），低配欧股（2.50%）、印 股（2.50%），标配日股（5.00%）。权益资产配置理由，一是多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配 A/H股。工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，广义赤字或扩张，政策将更积极。美联储12月降 息，人民币升值，为中国货币宽松创造条件，改革也提振市场风险偏好。二是"金发姑娘"背景渐显利于 美股表现，建议超配美股。美国边际降温但有韧性，内生性通胀粘性减弱，企业盈利预期或支撑美股中 枢上行。 ...

债市展望方面，国金资管认为，2026年积极财政政策或持续发力，通胀预期有望逐步升温，叠加机构行 为扰动加剧，债市利率下行空间或受到限制。但与此同时，央行大概率将维持流动性宽松以配合财政政 策落地，政策工具箱仍有发力空间。综合来看，2026年债市收益率或将继续维持宽幅震荡行情。 新华财经上海12月25日电（记者魏雨田）2025年已步入收官阶段，岁末之际，如何精准布局2026年资产 配置、把握新一轮市场周期中的潜在投资机会，成为市场关注焦点。展望2026年，国金资管表示，2026 年权益投资机会将更具广度与纵深，有望成为资产配置的主战场；而债市方面，收益率大概率延续宽幅 震荡格局。 国金资管分析认为，当前流动性环境与政策监管环境持续优化，长期资金呈现持续流入态势。叠加科技 领域持续突破、经济结构性亮点凸显，有望驱动部分行业基本面景气向上，进而催生结构性投资机会。 在此背景下，权益市场的投资机会或将成为2026年财富配置的核心发力点。 权益量化策略方面，国金资管表示，总体策略深度正不断提升。在市场波动、成交量逐步下行的大背景 下，量化策略的超额收益表现，或将印证策略深度已实现新突破，因此该类策略明年仍具备一定配置价 ...

Core Insights - The long-term outlook for China's capital markets is positive, but short-term volatility risks should be monitored [1] - Opportunities in the Chinese market stem from economic transformation and upgrading, which introduces uncertainty and risk, emphasizing the need for value and long-term investing [1] Equity Assets - The core asset allocation directions for the next five years include: self-controllable and trendy consumption, mergers and reorganizations of leading enterprises, innovative development in traditional industries, and the relocation of quality enterprises [1] Gold Investment - Gold continues to hold allocation value; medium to long-term uncertainties in U.S. economic policy and concerns over a weakening dollar are expected to support demand for gold as a safe-haven and risk-hedging asset [1] - The proportion of gold in private investment allocations may increase from just over 2% to 4-5% [1] Market Participation - Future investment opportunities will largely arise from transformation and upgrading, which may be challenging for individuals to navigate, thus highlighting the need for wealth management institutions to enhance their asset allocation capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a systematic restructuring rather than a simple continuation of the next cycle, with a focus on macroeconomic changes, policy logic, and asset pricing shifts [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Narrative - The narrative is shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "high-quality development," with a new focus on fiscal leadership and precise monetary support, emphasizing targeted investments in technology, green initiatives, and public welfare [3]. - The new paradigm features enhanced debt constraints, with local government debt resolution entering a critical phase and market-oriented transformations of city investment platforms becoming an irreversible trend [3]. - Growth drivers are transitioning, with increased resilience in exports, manufacturing upgrades, and the emergence of new energy sectors, while real estate is no longer the economic anchor [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Main Lines - Three structural opportunities are identified for asset allocation in 2026: 1. High-end manufacturing going global, transitioning from cost advantages to a dual drive of technology and brand [5]. 2. Technological self-sufficiency, supported by policies that create a long-term dividend in sectors like semiconductors and AI infrastructure [7]. 3. Green transformation and ESG financialization, where carbon trading and green bonds reshape industry valuation, leading to premium reassessment of low-carbon assets [9][10]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In a declining interest rate environment, the focus should be on relative value rather than absolute returns, with specific strategies for different asset classes: - For interest rate bonds, attention to duration structure and policy rhythm is crucial [12]. - In credit bonds, differentiation in city investment bonds is increasing, necessitating careful evaluation of regional fiscal capabilities and debt structures [13]. - For equity assets, emphasis on profit quality, cash flow stability, and sustainable ROE is recommended, moving away from PE speculation [13]. - Alternative assets like REITs and infrastructure public funds are emerging as new opportunities for institutional allocation [13]. Conclusion - The essence of investment lies in understanding change, with opportunities in 2026 favoring those who comprehend structural transformations rather than those seeking short-term policy stimuli [17][18].

Macro and Technical Perspectives on Asset Allocation - The macro perspective indicates a bearish outlook on equity assets, while the technical perspective shows an upward trend with moderate valuation and a state of capital outflow [1][5][20] - For bonds, the macro perspective is bullish, but the technical perspective indicates a downward trend [1][5][20] - Industrial products are viewed negatively from a macro perspective, with a downward price trend also noted technically [1][5][20] - Gold assets are favored in the macro view, with a technical upward price trend [1][5][20] Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio + macro indicators + technical indicators combination yielded a return of 10.51% in 2025, with an annualized return of 12.05% since April 2006 [2][21] - The volatility-controlled + macro indicators + technical indicators combination achieved a return of 15.69%, while the risk parity + macro indicators + technical indicators combination returned 6.99% [2][30] Asset Class Analysis - Equity assets are currently under pressure from macro indicators, while technical indicators suggest an upward trend but with capital outflow [20][21] - Bond assets are supported by macro indicators, but technical indicators show a downward trend [20][21] - Industrial products face macro headwinds and technical downward trends [20][21] - Gold assets benefit from favorable macro indicators and an upward technical trend [20][21] Valuation and Capital Flow Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is at 53.94%, indicating a moderate valuation level [13][14] - The latest capital flow indicator for equity assets shows a net outflow of 316 billion, reflecting a capital outflow state [16][17] Summary of Asset Class Scores - The overall scores for asset classes based on macro and technical indicators show equities at 1, bonds at 3, industrial products at -2, and gold at 2 [19][20] - The combined analysis suggests a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while bonds and gold are viewed positively [20][21]

Group 1: Market Observations - The resumption of government bond trading is linked to a reasonable short-term yield level, with the current 10-year bond yield at approximately 1.8423%, up from a low of 1.5958% earlier this year[11] - The central bank's actions in the bond market may indicate a shift in liquidity management, particularly if the scale of re-lending decreases during bond purchases[12] - A significant increase in bank holdings of government bonds during the central bank's bond purchases could positively impact total liquidity, including M1 and non-bank deposits[13] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The necessity for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low, as current policies are aimed at managing production credit rather than increasing bank lending capacity[23] - The probability of lowering policy interest rates in the short term is also low, as this could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets, potentially increasing systemic risk[26] - There is a possibility of a reduction in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which could help lower household debt costs and stabilize housing prices[26] Group 3: Capital Market Implications - The strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown, with liquidity support from the central bank creating a floor for equity prices[27] - The resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the bond market may still face pressure if economic conditions improve[27] - Historical trends suggest that a dual bull market in stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity support from the central bank, with current deposit shifts likely to influence asset prices rapidly[28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing factors such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policy, stable corporate earnings, and valuation advantages in certain markets [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a rebound due to its low valuation and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Gold - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold's strength remains intact, driven by demand from central banks and investors as a hedge against sovereign debt risks and inflation [5][6]. - Short-term technical pressures may affect gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global uncertainties that bolster safe-haven demand [6][7]. - The gold sector is viewed as a strong investment choice due to multiple converging factors, including concerns over global trade policies and a weakening dollar, which enhances gold's investment appeal [6][7]. Group 3: Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to economic growth during the inflation cycle [7]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is expected to support coal prices, making it a sector worth monitoring [7]. Group 4: Balanced Strategy - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities [8]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of diversifying across global markets to reduce single-market risks while focusing on structural opportunities in equity markets [8][9]. - The proposed allocation includes a core focus on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, with satellite investments in industrial metals like copper and aluminum [9].

Core Insights - The current strong assets are primarily two categories: gold and equity assets, specifically stocks [2] - Within equity assets, the strong sectors are "technology + resources," which are always scarce [2]

Core Viewpoint - Current market conditions present numerous investment opportunities despite a year of recovery, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation strategies to capture diverse returns while managing volatility risks [2] Group 1: Low-Interest Rate Environment - The low-interest rate environment challenges traditional investment logic, making it difficult to manage risks and achieve stable long-term returns [2] - There is a consensus among investors regarding the attractiveness of equity assets, driven by China's economic resilience and the emergence of companies with sustainable profitability [2] - The focus on companies with core competitiveness remains the optimal solution for achieving excess returns in a liquidity-rich environment [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The current low-risk-free rate necessitates the inclusion of risk assets in investment portfolios to pursue higher returns [3] - Equity assets are viewed as having the best value proposition among risk assets, despite a decrease in attractiveness compared to the previous year [3] - The importance of asset allocation is increasing as market volatility and the difficulty of obtaining returns grow [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Potential investment opportunities include a rebound in dollar assets and continued upward potential for assets represented by the renminbi [6] - Gold is considered a strong tool for hedging portfolio risks due to its low correlation with the dollar, while copper is expected to perform well due to demand from new energy and AI [6] - In a low inflation and ample liquidity environment, a diversified approach involving stocks, bonds, and commodities, particularly gold, is favored [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].