Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the A-share market has shown a slow bull pattern, with private equity funds performing well overall. However, recent market corrections have led to significant net value declines for some private equity products, drawing attention to the chairman of Shiwa Investment, Liang Hong, due to substantial losses in his funds [1]. Group 1: Performance of Shiwa Investment - Shiwa's core products have experienced consistent declines since October, with the "Shiwa Daniu No. 1" product showing a year-to-date return of 15.84% but suffering a significant short-term drop, including a single-day decline of 4.46% on October 10 and a total monthly decline of 7.51% in October [2]. - The "Shiwa Xiaoniu No. 19" product has mirrored the performance of "Shiwa Daniu No. 1," with a year-to-date return of 15.93% and similar monthly declines, indicating systemic pressure on Shiwa's overall investment portfolio [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Decline - Liang Hong attributed the significant underperformance to three key investment mistakes, starting with a heavy investment in the innovative drug sector, which led to a net value drop exceeding 4% due to a lack of decisive sell-off actions [3]. - The second blow came from a leading hardware stock that Liang over-weighted at 30%, which subsequently fell over 37%, reflecting a misjudgment in risk exposure [4]. - The most critical issue was a heavy investment in U.S. stocks related to stablecoins, which Liang had defined as a "five-fold potential stock." This investment faced a 50%-60% adjustment, leading to a negative contribution of 4%-5% to the fund's net value due to overlooked risks [4]. Group 3: Reflections and Future Strategy - Liang Hong acknowledged that greed was a deep-seated issue causing excessive net value fluctuations and poor investor experiences, emphasizing a pattern of over-enthusiasm at high valuations without considering risk and cost-effectiveness [5]. - Despite the reflections, Liang remains optimistic about the market for the coming year, indicating a shift from a long-term holding strategy to a more active approach to reduce product drawdowns [6]. - Future strategies will focus on maintaining value investment principles while incorporating absolute return considerations and preparing for adjustments to strategies by year-end [7].

2025年以来，A股走出震荡慢牛格局，私募基金整体业绩亮眼。其中，股票策略以29.52%的平均收益率 领跑五大策略，92.73%的相关产品盈利。而市场近期的回调却让部分私募产品净值出现大幅回撤。百 亿私募希瓦投资董事长梁宏就因旗下基金大幅回撤而受到市场关注。 "在牛市行情下，因业绩承压致歉并不常见。"梁宏坦言，此次回撤大幅跑输主要指数，核心问题出在个 股选择与仓位管理上，具体可归结为三笔关键投资的失误。 第一波回撤始于9月26日当周，因重仓的创新药板块个股下跌，直接导致基金净值回撤超4%。"高位没 有根据价值兑现大部分仓位，卖出决策不够果断。"梁宏将此次失误归结为对止盈信号的迟钝。 第二重打击来自硬件龙头股的持续大跌。梁宏自30元附近建仓该股，40元左右摊薄成本，因看好"人工 智能时代硬件入口"的逻辑，将仓位提升至30%的超重水平，目标价预估至60元。但事与愿违，该公司 负面因素缠身，股价累计跌幅超37%，目前仅能维持盈亏平衡或略亏损状态。"高位估值合理阶段，不 该持有30%这么重的仓位，20%会合理很多。"梁宏反思称，对单一标的过度乐观导致了风险敞口过 大。 最致命的是第三笔投资，被梁宏称为"今年最大的问题 ...