Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching a new phase of "liquidity replenishment" after two years of balance sheet reduction, with potential plans to expand its securities holdings soon [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to assess whether the reserve levels have transitioned from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" before gradually resuming net asset purchases [4]. - Any future bond purchases will be part of a pre-planned liquidity management action under the "adequate reserves framework," not a new stimulus policy [4][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent fluctuations in the repo market indicate a transition of liquidity from "ample" to "adequate," with some repo rates exceeding the Fed's target range [5]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged, reaching the highest frequency since its establishment in 2021, with borrowing exceeding $10 billion on two occasions last week [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve may officially initiate "reserve management" bond purchases in the first quarter of 2026 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [7]. - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring indicators such as the federal funds market and repo market to evaluate changes in reserve demand [7].

当地时间11月7日，美国纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）在德国法兰克福出席欧 洲央行货币市场会议时表示，美联储可能很快考虑重新开始扩大其证券持有规模。这一表态意味着，在 连续两年缩表之后，美联储正接近"流动性补给"的新阶段。 另一个迹象是，银行对"常备回购便利工具"（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）的使用显著上升。自10月中 旬以来，SRF使用频率创下2021年设立以来最高纪录，上周有两天借款规模超过100亿美元。 就在一周前，美联储宣布将于12月1日正式结束资产负债表缩减（Quantitative Tightening, QT）计划。威 廉姆斯的发言随即引发市场关注。分析人士认为，美联储此举并非转向宽松，而是出于准备金管理的技 术性考虑。 维持"充足准备金"水平 威廉姆斯表示，即便未来启动美联储"储备管理式"债券购买，其目的在于维持银行体系准备金处于"充 足水平"，并强调这类操作"并不意味着货币政策基本立场发生变化"。 他解释称，美联储资产负债表策略的"下一步"是评估储备水平是否已从"略高于充足"转为"充足"。一旦 达到该状态，美联储将逐步恢复净购买资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching a new phase of "liquidity replenishment" after two years of balance sheet reduction, rather than a return to quantitative easing [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve may soon consider expanding its securities holdings to maintain bank reserves at "adequate levels," which does not indicate a change in the fundamental stance of monetary policy [2][5]. - The next step in the Fed's balance sheet strategy involves assessing whether reserve levels have transitioned from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent fluctuations in the repo market indicate a transition of liquidity from "ample" to "adequate," with some repo rates exceeding the Fed's target range, reflecting increased demand for short-term funds [4]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged, reaching the highest frequency since its establishment in 2021, with borrowing exceeding $10 billion on multiple occasions [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market analysts anticipate that the Fed may initiate "reserve management" bond purchases in the first quarter of 2026 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [5]. - The Fed is closely monitoring indicators such as the federal funds market, repo market, and payment systems to evaluate changes in reserve demand [5].